点击小程序查看报告原文 2025年5月16日盘后，恒生指数公司公布了其定期的一季度指数调整结果（此次审议考察截至2025年3月31日，一般在 考察日期后的8周内公布）。此次调整范围涵盖港股主要旗舰指数如恒生、国企指数和恒生科技指数；此外直接决定港 股通可投资范围的恒生综合指数也有局部调整。我们综合分析影响供投资者参考。 指数调整及影响：美的集团与中通快递-W纳入恒指，比亚迪股份纳入恒生科技 ► 成分股变化：美的集团与中通快递-W纳入恒生指数；比亚迪股份纳入恒生科技，阅文集团被剔除。 1) 恒生指数： 此次调整纳入美的集团与中通快递-W，纳入权重分别为0.33%与0.44%，调整后成分股数量增至85只。 2) 恒 生国 企： 此次无纳入剔除，成分股数量维持50只不变。 3) 恒生科 技 ： 此次调整纳入比亚迪股份，纳入权重为8%；阅文集团被剔除，剔除前权重为0.49%。成分股维持在30 只不变。 ► 被动资金流向测算：关注对网易-S、比亚迪股份与中通快递-W等的正面影响；对阅文集团与万洲国际的负面影响。 基于Bloomberg汇总，追踪恒生指数的ETF资金规模约为290.5亿美元，追踪国企和恒生科技指数ETF规 ...

中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 策略 Strategy 上次"股债汇三杀"发生了什么？ >>点击图片查看全文<< 特朗普宣布"对等关税"后，美国股、债、汇市场在4月中下旬一度呈现非常罕见的"三杀"局面，标普500最高回撤10%，10年美债利率快速抬升50bp逼 近4.5%，美元指数也一度回落至98。究其原因，除了政策不确定性带来的短期波动和恐慌外（《 大超预期的"对等关税" 》、《 "对等关税"的冲击会 有多大？ 》），市场更为担心的是，"对等关税"除了破坏美国"例外论"和相对优势的同时（大财政、科技优势与资金再平衡，是美国"例外论"的三个 核心支柱，《 美国"例外论"与"东升西落"的内核 》），是否也动摇了全球投资者对美元资产作为长期安全资产的信心和信任感。近期市场有所企 稳，美股甚至已经完全修复此前跌幅，但上述的担忧情绪依然挥之不去。历史上是否出现过类似的情形？发生的背景是什么，最终是如何收场的？本 文中，我们将讨论历史上"股债汇三杀"出现时的共性，以及对当下的启示。 图表：回顾1970年以来10次典型的"股债汇三杀"阶段，我们将触发因素分为滞胀或类滞胀担忧、货币紧缩 ...

中金点睛"热点数据快报"栏目将带您浏览近期热点数据。 01 AI应用流量高频数据 SimilarWeb 近期数据显示： 上周（5月3日-5月9日），ChatGPT网站用户访问量为12.3亿人次，周度环比+1.17%，延续增 长趋势。 DeepSeek网站访问量在2月2日达历史峰值后开始下滑，近期已企稳。上周访问量为9559万人 次，保持在国内AI应用网页端的领先地位。 豆包网站上周访问量为1171万人次，高于Kimi、腾讯元宝等AI产品。 了解更多AI产品用户活跃数据，请访问⬇️ 【中金计算机】AI应用流量高频数据库 图：国内AI网站访问量数据(近7日) 数据来源:SimilarWeb，中金公司研究部 02 "黄金眼"日度观察 ☀️ 本周黄金价格波动剧烈，Q1季度全球央行持续增持黄金。 5月12日，受中美贸易谈判进展的影响，伦敦现货黄金低开低走，较前日下跌幅度高达89.15 美元/盎司，收盘于3235.40美元/盎司。同日上海金交所现货黄金收盘于759元/克，较前日下跌 3.37%。5月14日，伦敦现货黄金跌破3200美元/盎司，收盘于3191.95美元/盎司。 据世界黄金协会的数据显示，2025年Q1季度， ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China Geneva talks have led to significant tariff reductions, which have lowered the risk of a US economic recession. However, the effective tariff rate of 15.5% remains elevated compared to last year's 2.4%, indicating that inflation risks are not fully alleviated [1][4]. Economic Impact of Tariff Reductions - Following the tariff reductions, the effective tariff rate in the US is projected to decrease from 28.4% to 15.5%, significantly reducing recession risks. This reduction alleviates the pressure on import costs, restores consumer confidence, and lowers the risks of corporate layoffs and bankruptcies, thereby stabilizing overall economic demand [4]. - Despite the reduction, the retained 10% baseline tariff on most countries will continue to exert supply-side pressure, potentially leading to a 0.73 percentage point decline in the US GDP growth rate by 2025 compared to a scenario without tariffs. This impact is a significant improvement from the previously estimated 1.4 percentage point decline [4]. - The unemployment rate may rise by an additional 0.5 percentage points in 2025 due to the economic slowdown, although the increase may be less pronounced than in previous years due to a reduced influx of labor supply [4]. Inflation Risks - The increase in the effective tariff rate compared to last year, combined with the depreciation of the US dollar, continues to exert upward pressure on the prices of imported goods. The significant rise in tariff revenue in April indicates that businesses and consumers will still bear the cost of tariffs [6]. - Recent CPI data showed lower-than-expected inflation primarily due to a decline in service prices, but certain goods, such as entertainment products and appliances, have seen price increases. For instance, audio equipment prices rose by 8.8% [6][7]. - Historical patterns suggest that price increases typically occur 2-3 months after tariffs are fully implemented, indicating that the current inflation data may not yet reflect the full impact of the new tariffs [7]. Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve is currently more focused on inflation risks rather than recession risks. The recent tariff reductions have lessened recession concerns but have not completely eliminated inflation risks, prompting the Fed to adopt a wait-and-see approach [9]. - The Fed has postponed its interest rate cut predictions to the fourth quarter, with expectations of a reduction of less than 50 basis points for the year. This is a shift from earlier predictions of a more aggressive cut if tariffs remained high [9]. Potential Risks - There are two main risks to the current predictions: potential changes in tariff policies that could reignite recession fears and weak demand leading to lower oil prices and service inflation, which could offset the inflationary pressures from tariffs [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformative potential of Large Language Models (LLMs) in the field of active investment research, addressing the challenges posed by information overload in the digital age and highlighting the efficiency and depth that LLMs can bring to information processing and analysis [1][8]. Information Acquisition and Processing - LLMs enhance the efficiency of analysts by automating information tracking, report analysis, and earnings call summaries, allowing for the extraction of key insights from vast amounts of data [3][12]. - Automated market information tracking enables LLMs to access multiple data sources, filter and categorize information based on keywords or themes, and generate structured summaries [3][12]. - LLMs can aggregate and compare analyst reports, extracting critical information such as ratings, target prices, and earnings forecasts, while identifying market consensus and discrepancies among analysts [3][29]. - Earnings call summaries can be quickly processed by LLMs to extract financial updates, strategic focuses, and management insights, while also comparing historical content for changes in management communication [3][31]. Deep Analysis and Mining - LLMs can quantify and analyze market sentiment and unstructured information, identifying emerging themes and multidimensional risks, thus providing unique perspectives for investment decisions [4][38]. - The ability to quantify sentiment allows LLMs to assess emotional nuances in texts, track sentiment changes over time, and identify key drivers of sentiment shifts [4][38]. - LLMs can assist in situational performance attribution by analyzing significant news and industry dynamics related to portfolio holdings, offering richer narrative explanations beyond traditional quantitative models [4][39]. Strategy Generation and Validation - LLMs facilitate the discovery of interpretable innovative Alpha factors and significantly lower the barriers for quantitative strategy backtesting by converting natural language descriptions into executable code [5][46]. - The advantages of LLMs in fundamental factor discovery include broad thinking and cross-domain integration, logical coherence and interpretability, and high customizability [5][45]. - LLMs can transform qualitative investment strategies into quantifiable backtestable code, enabling fund managers without coding skills to validate and optimize fundamental strategies [5][46]. Application Prospects - The integration of LLMs in active investment research presents significant opportunities, but successful large-scale application requires effective human-AI collaboration and addressing challenges related to data accuracy and bias [6][9]. - The deepening of human-AI collaboration necessitates new skill sets for research personnel, such as precise prompting and critical evaluation of AI outputs [6][9].

Core Viewpoint - Thailand's economic recovery faces unexpected disruptions, with GDP growth forecasted to slow down to 1.8% in 2025, down from previous expectations of 2.5% for 2024, due to multiple adverse factors impacting the economic outlook [2][9]. Macroeconomic Overview - Thailand's real GDP is projected to grow by 2.5% in 2024, up from 2.0% in 2023, driven by a 5.4% increase in goods exports, a 26.3% rise in international tourist arrivals, and a 4.4% growth in private consumption [8][9]. - The IMF has revised Thailand's GDP growth forecast for 2025 down to 1.8%, highlighting the challenges posed by external factors such as U.S. tariffs and domestic political instability [9][10]. Policy Regulation - The Thai government has introduced an economic stimulus plan exceeding 500 billion THB (approximately 15 billion USD) to counteract slowing growth, focusing on consumption stimulation and investment [3][21]. - The Bank of Thailand has lowered the policy interest rate from 2.25% to 1.75% to enhance market liquidity, with additional measures including debt relief programs and digital wallet initiatives aimed at supporting indebted households [3][21]. Trade Dynamics - U.S. tariff policies present uncertainties for Thailand's exports, with a trade surplus of 35.4 billion USD expected in 2024, and a corresponding tariff rate of 36% [4][30]. - In Q1 2025, Thailand's exports grew by 15.2%, supported by strong demand from the U.S. and China, but ongoing trade negotiations with the U.S. remain stalled, posing risks to future trade performance [4][31]. Tourism Industry - The tourism sector is under scrutiny due to security incidents and the impact of the March earthquake, with international tourist arrivals increasing by only 1.9% in Q1 2025 [5][37]. - High-spending tourists from Western countries are partially offsetting the decline in Chinese visitors, but the overall recovery in tourism is expected to be slower than anticipated [5][38]. Capital Markets - The Thai stock market (SET Index) has fallen by 14.5% year-to-date, reaching a five-year low, driven by global market volatility and domestic economic challenges [6][46]. - Recommendations for investment strategies include diversifying into high-dividend blue-chip stocks, tourism-related sectors, and utilities, as well as taking advantage of potential stock buyback programs [6][47].

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for April indicates strong support from fiscal expansion for social financing (社融) and M2 growth, despite the impact of last year's low base and local debt replacement. The conclusion remains valid even after considering various data disturbances, but endogenous tight credit conditions may persist, and internal financing demand still needs to recover [1][2]. Group 1: Social Financing and M2 Growth - In April, new social financing reached 1.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.2 trillion yuan compared to the same month last year, primarily driven by government debt contributions. The net financing of new government debt in April was 972.9 billion yuan, a significant increase from last year's negative figure [2]. - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing rose from 8.4% in March to 8.7% in April, while M2's growth rate increased from 7.0% in March to 8.0% in April. Seasonal adjustments show that the annualized month-on-month growth rates for both social financing and M2 exceeded 9%, indicating a robust performance [2]. Group 2: Credit Growth and Local Debt Replacement - New credit in April was 280 billion yuan, significantly lower than the 730 billion yuan from the same month last year, with the year-on-year growth rate declining from 7.4% to 7.2%. However, adjustments for local debt replacement suggest that the actual year-on-year growth rate for credit may be around 8.0%, consistent with March [3]. - Fiscal deposits grew by 21.5% year-on-year in April, the highest since Q1 2022, indicating that existing fiscal expansion policies have not yet fully materialized. The rapid pace of fiscal bond issuance compared to disbursement progress is a key factor [3]. Group 3: Loan Rates and Internal Financing Demand - The new corporate loan interest rate fell to 4.2% in April, a decrease of 10 basis points from March, with a cumulative decline of 23 basis points since the beginning of the year. This decline occurred without any interest rate cuts, suggesting that internal financing demand still requires recovery [4]. - The growth rate of medium- to long-term loans for the manufacturing sector dropped to 8.5% in April, marking the lowest level since 2020 and the first time it fell below the overall medium- to long-term loan growth rate for all enterprises in the past five years [4]. Group 4: Policy Implementation and Economic Impact - Short-term, existing policies need to be implemented, and attention should be paid to the evolution of household balance sheets and their economic impact. The current low loan interest costs suggest that reducing non-interest costs is crucial for lowering overall financing costs [5]. - The recovery of household net assets in Q1 may provide a boost to the economy if it continues into Q2. Favorable conditions include the narrowing gap between rental yields and mortgage rates, which may stabilize housing prices, while adverse conditions include income expectations and real estate supply-demand dynamics [5].

文/中金大类资产研究：李昭，杨晓卿， 屈博韬 美国股债汇重现"三杀"，或反映通胀环境与美元周期发生重大变化。"三杀"的本质是美元资产中安全资产（债券与现金）的避险能力下降，难以对冲 风险资产（股票与商品）的回调亏损。在美元资产内部进行资产配置，无法有效分散风险，需警惕美国股债汇"三杀"反复化、长期化的可能性。 美元资产面临困局，美债美元避险能力下降，导致安全资产更为稀缺，有助于提升黄金的配置价值。美股前景不确定性增大，让非美风险资产的吸引 力相对上升，中欧股票可能体现相对韧性。 点击小程序查看报告原文 资产配置视角看美国股债汇"三杀" 4月初美国对等关税落地后，标普500最大回撤达12%，十年期美债利率从4.0%一度冲高至4.5%，美元指数跌破100，股债汇"三杀"引发市场高度关注。 股债汇三杀在美国市场并不多见，首先因为美股牛长熊短，股票大部分时间都在上涨。当股票遭遇负面冲击下跌时，美债与美元作为传统避险资产趋于上 涨，进而避免三杀。长期而严重的美国股债汇三杀集中发生在上世纪70-80年代的"大通胀"时代，例如1976年末开始的三杀，持续时间超过一年。 图表1：历史上的美国长期严重的股债汇"三杀"集中出现在 ...

Core Insights - The REITs market in China has been growing steadily since the first public REITs products were launched in June 2021, attracting diverse funding and enhancing asset categories [1] - The conversation highlights the strategic importance of REITs as a financing tool and a link between assets and industries, particularly in the context of industrial parks [4][6] Group 1: Industry Trends - The industrial park market is transitioning from a phase of rapid growth to a more refined management approach, focusing on service and incubation [3] - Zhangjiang area is significant for the semiconductor industry, with approximately 70% of Shanghai's integrated circuit sales occurring there, indicating a strong industry concentration [4] Group 2: REITs Platform Positioning - REITs serve as a crucial strategic platform for financing and connecting assets with industries, allowing for reinvestment into industrial development [4][6] - The emergence of a multi-tiered REITs market, including Pre-REITs and private REITs, is noted as a way to match different asset lifecycle stages [4] Group 3: Tenant Concentration and Challenges - High tenant concentration is a characteristic of industrial parks, with large tenants often being R&D-focused, which can lead to significant leasing space [5] - The industry faces challenges with large tenants vacating, which is considered a rare event but requires proactive management strategies [5] Group 4: Recommendations for Future REITs Issuance - Suggestions include enhancing the flexibility of fundraising to allow for direct investment into industrial projects, thereby better supporting the industry [6] - The importance of increasing the diversity of secondary market participants is emphasized to stabilize and rationalize the REITs market [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that while the CPI in April showed a month-on-month increase driven by gold, travel, and imported beef prices, the year-on-year figure remains negative for the third consecutive month, highlighting persistent demand weakness [3][4][8]. - The April CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, outperforming the seasonal average of -0.1% over the past decade, primarily due to a 10.1% rise in gold jewelry prices, a 3.9% increase in beef prices, and a 3.1% rise in travel-related costs [4][10]. - The year-on-year CPI remained at -0.1% in April, with several price categories showing weakness, including a continued decline in pork prices and stagnant or falling prices in various consumer goods and services [4][6]. Group 2 - The PPI in April saw a year-on-year decline from -2.5% to -2.7%, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.4%, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline [5][6]. - A total of 22 out of 30 categories in the PPI showed no month-on-month growth, indicating widespread price weakness across industries [6][7]. - The article notes that the decline in international oil prices, influenced by tariffs and global economic conditions, has led to decreased prices in domestic oil and gas extraction and processing [7]. Group 3 - The article emphasizes that improving domestic demand is crucial for restoring price levels, as the central bank continues to focus on promoting reasonable price recovery through monetary policy [9][8]. - The transition to a demand-driven growth model is highlighted as essential, with a call for coordinated fiscal, monetary, and social policies to expand effective demand, particularly in consumption [9][8].