Core Viewpoint - The current economic adjustment in China is characterized by a weak inflation cycle under a declining financial cycle, with productivity being a crucial dimension for analysis [1][8]. Financial Cycle - The financial cycle is defined as the long-term interaction between credit and housing prices, with a downward trend leading to credit contraction and insufficient domestic demand [9]. - During the financial cycle's expansion, productivity did not improve synchronously, indicating inefficient allocation of credit resources [12][19]. - The current financial cycle in China has seen a concentration of funds and labor in low-efficiency sectors, particularly real estate, leading to a decline in overall productivity growth [12][22]. Policy Implications - Historical experience suggests that during a declining financial cycle, both monetary and fiscal policies should be coordinated to stimulate the economy [2][33]. - The intensity of monetary and fiscal policies tends to increase as the negative impact of the cycle deepens, with a typical lag of 3 to 4 years before economic stabilization occurs [2][40]. - Current monetary policy efforts in China are relatively weaker compared to international averages, indicating room for further action [34][40]. Asset Implications - Accelerated policy efforts are expected to stabilize and potentially increase asset prices, with historical data showing that housing and stock prices tend to recover after initial declines [4][55]. - In the context of China's current economic environment, sectors such as finance, real estate, and technology are likely to perform better as policies are implemented [63]. - The ongoing global rebalancing of funds and a weak dollar environment may favor the revaluation of Chinese assets, particularly in light of domestic policy support [5][70]. Economic Development Trends - China's GDP growth from 2020 to 2025 is projected to significantly outperform international averages, attributed to factors such as manufacturing scale effects and pre-existing monetary and fiscal policy support [22][23]. - Price levels in China have shown similarities to international low-price differentiation scenarios, with a notable demand gap impacting inflation [23][24]. - The housing market in China has experienced a cumulative decline of 14% since the peak, which is more severe than the international average [24][26]. Conclusion - The analysis of the current economic cycle in China through the lenses of financial cycles, productivity, and price levels provides valuable insights into potential policy and asset performance [1][22].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the need for high-quality development and effective policies to address external uncertainties, while also focusing on boosting domestic demand and consumption to support economic growth [1][2]. Monetary Policy - The PBOC plans to implement a series of financial policies, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, while maintaining liquidity and flexibility in policy implementation [1][5]. - The report highlights the importance of balancing support for the real economy with the health of the banking system, especially in light of rising non-performing loan ratios [5]. Inflation and Demand - The PBOC identifies low inflation as primarily a result of weak demand against strong supply, stressing that boosting effective demand is crucial for price recovery [2][3]. - The report outlines constraints on effective demand recovery, including global trade tensions and the slow transition to new economic drivers [2]. Consumption and Financial Support - Enhancing consumption is deemed essential for expanding domestic demand, with the PBOC advocating for improved financial services to support consumer spending [3]. - The PBOC suggests that a moderately loose monetary policy can create a favorable environment for consumption finance, alongside structural support for key consumption sectors [3]. Government Debt Sustainability - The PBOC asserts that China's government debt expansion remains sustainable due to a favorable asset-liability structure, with total government assets at 166% of GDP and total liabilities at 75% of GDP [4]. - The comparison with the U.S. and Japan highlights China's relatively lower net debt levels and substantial state-owned assets, indicating a robust financial position [4]. Exchange Rate Policy - The PBOC maintains that the RMB exchange rate will continue to fluctuate based on market supply and demand, with a focus on stabilizing the currency at a reasonable level [6]. - The report emphasizes the need for financial institutions to provide exchange rate hedging services to small and medium-sized enterprises [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China trade talks resulted in a significant reduction of tariffs, with the effective tariff rate dropping from 145% to 30%, which exceeded market expectations and positively impacted market sentiment [1][2][7]. Tariff Reduction Details - The US reduced tariffs on China from 145% to 30%, including a 90-day exemption on 24% of the tariffs [2][6]. - China reciprocated by canceling 91% of its retaliatory tariffs against the US [2][3]. Market Impact - Following the announcement, the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rose by over 3% and 5% respectively, while US stock futures surged by 3-4% [1]. - The Brent crude oil price increased by 3.6% to $66 per barrel, and gold prices fell by 3% to around $3200 per ounce due to reduced risk aversion [1]. Economic Implications - The reduction in tariffs is expected to alleviate supply shocks in the US and demand shocks in China, potentially easing inflationary pressures in the US [7][12]. - The effective tax rate in the US is projected to decrease from 17-20% to 16-17% as a result of the tariff changes [10][25]. Future Negotiations - The success of future negotiations remains critical, as the current 30% tariff level still imposes additional costs on businesses and may suppress demand [8][18]. - The second quarter is deemed crucial for observing progress in tariff negotiations, tax reductions, and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [12][20]. Asset Market Reactions - US and Hong Kong stock markets have recovered to pre-tariff levels, with the S&P 500 index currently valued at 20.6 times earnings, up from 19.4 times in early April [21][28]. - The Hang Seng Index has rebounded significantly, reflecting improved market sentiment, but future performance will depend on the outcomes of ongoing trade discussions [28][29]. Inflation and Growth Projections - The tariffs are estimated to raise US inflation by 1.4-1.5 percentage points, with potential GDP growth impacts of 0.8 percentage points due to increased tariff revenues [12][19]. - If tariffs are further reduced, the Federal Reserve may have opportunities to lower interest rates later in the year to support economic growth [17][25].

中金研究 中美会谈取得实质性进展，宣布缓解对彼此商品加征的关税。会谈结果好于预期，市场风险偏好明 显回升。短期来看，关税对于美国主要是供给冲击，对于中国主要是需求冲击，经贸会谈结果意味 着美国供给冲击缓解，中国需求冲击减弱。我们测算显示，最新美国有效关税率将从此前的28.4%下 降至15.5%，美国滞胀风险降低。最新关税下，中国出口下行风险得到较大缓解，后续中国国内经济 走势主要看宏观政策力度，尤其是财政政策力度。 点击小程序查看报告原文 北京时间5月12日下午3点，中美双方同步发表《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》[1] [2]。 根据声明内 容，自5月14日起，双方将仅保留对彼此商品加征的10%关税，暂停执行此前加征的24%关税，为期90 天，其余对等关税则全部取消。不过，今年2月和3月美国以芬太尼问题为由对中方额外征收的累计20% 关税并不在此次协议范围内。这意味着在协议实施后，美国对中国商品的关税将从145%降至30%，中 国对美国商品的关税则将从125%降至10%[3]。美国财政部长贝森特在记者会上表示，双方都不希望脱 钩，"我们都希望实现贸易平衡，美国将持续朝这一方向努力"[4]。根据声明，我们测算 ...

Core Viewpoint - The UAE is a pioneer in economic diversification in the Gulf region, leveraging its resource and geographical advantages to benefit from globalization, with continuous economic growth driven by industrial upgrading, internal and external demand linkage, and financial market openness [1]. Group 1: Economic Development Models - The UAE's economic development showcases two models: the Abu Dhabi model, which focuses on manufacturing and industrial upgrading, and the Dubai model, which is a composite of re-export trade, real estate, high-end tourism, and finance, reflecting differentiated and complementary economic transformation paths [1]. - Abu Dhabi's economic transformation began in the 1980s with the establishment of the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, utilizing oil revenues for financial investments and developing downstream industries [11]. - Dubai established itself as a trade hub through the development of ports and free trade zones, with the Dubai Economic Agenda D33 aiming to double GDP and annual FDI inflows over the next decade [12]. Group 2: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) - The UAE has attracted significant foreign direct investment through its free trade zones and favorable tax policies, with FDI net inflows increasing by 35% to $30.6 billion in 2023, accounting for 47% of the total net inflows in the West Asia region [29]. - The UAE has relaxed foreign investment regulations since 2019, allowing 100% foreign ownership in certain sectors and eliminating the need for local partners in distribution businesses [28]. Group 3: Economic Structure and Growth - As of 2023, the UAE's nominal GDP reached $504.2 billion, with the non-oil sector contributing approximately 75% to the GDP, reflecting a successful transition from an oil-dependent economy [9][14]. - The non-oil sector's GDP grew by 6.2% in 2023, offsetting the negative impact of oil production cuts, with significant contributions from manufacturing, wholesale and retail, and financial services [15][17]. Group 4: Energy Transition - The UAE is a benchmark for energy transition in the Middle East, pursuing a dual-path strategy of "greening fossil fuels" and expanding renewable energy, with a goal of increasing the share of clean energy to 50% by 2050 [37][40]. - The UAE's National Energy Strategy 2050 aims to invest $163 billion to enhance clean energy's share and reduce carbon emissions, with significant investments in renewable energy projects [42]. Group 5: Trade and Logistics - The UAE has established itself as a major re-export trade center, with re-export trade accounting for over 40% of total imports, totaling $167.8 billion in 2023 [21][22]. - The UAE's strategic location and extensive port infrastructure, including Jebel Ali Port, position it as a key player in global trade, with container throughput growing by 5.8% in 2022 [49]. Group 6: Real Estate and Tourism - The UAE's real estate market has seen significant price increases, with Dubai's property prices rising by 46% from 2021 to 2023, driven by foreign investment and tourism recovery [51]. - The UAE's tourism sector is supported by strategic infrastructure investments, with a goal of attracting 40 million visitors by 2031, contributing significantly to GDP [56][57]. Group 7: Financial Market Development - The UAE is evolving into a global financial center, attracting international financial institutions due to its geopolitical neutrality, independent regulatory framework, and favorable tax environment [61].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent "triple kill" in the U.S. stock, bond, and currency markets triggered by Trump's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs," highlighting concerns over inflation, economic stagnation, and the long-term trust in U.S. dollar assets [1][38]. Historical Context of "Triple Kill" - Since 1970, there have been 10 notable instances of "triple kill," primarily associated with stagflation concerns, monetary tightening, and a decline in the relative attractiveness of the U.S. dollar [2][19]. - Common triggers include economic stagnation or stagflation worries, monetary tightening to combat inflation, and a weakening of the U.S. dollar's relative appeal [2][19]. Economic Stagnation and Inflation - Historical instances of "triple kill" often occurred during periods of economic downturn and high inflation, where the Federal Reserve had to tighten monetary policy, leading to a dual impact on both stock and bond markets [2][19]. - For example, during the 1973-1974 period, the S&P 500 dropped by 15.8%, and the 10-year Treasury yield increased by 60 basis points [4][6]. Federal Reserve's Role - The Federal Reserve's delayed or inconsistent response to inflation has historically exacerbated inflation expectations, contributing to market volatility [9][19]. - In 1987, for instance, the Fed's shift to a hawkish stance led to a significant rise in bond yields and a corresponding drop in stock prices [19][21]. Recent Market Dynamics - The recent "triple kill" was primarily triggered by Trump's unexpected "reciprocal tariffs," which raised short-term market volatility and long-term concerns about inflation and economic growth [38][40]. - The tariffs are projected to increase U.S. inflation by 1.6 to 1.8 percentage points and reduce GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points [40][48]. Long-term Implications for Dollar Assets - While the tariffs may undermine investor confidence in U.S. dollar assets, the article argues that the long-term impact on the dollar's status as a reserve currency will take time to materialize [49][51]. - The current structure of U.S. debt and the predominance of domestic holders of U.S. Treasuries suggest that the dollar's position as a global reserve currency remains intact for now [51][56]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that if negotiations on tariffs or tax cuts progress positively, it could alleviate market pressures and stabilize investor sentiment [56]. - Conversely, persistent stagflation pressures could hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates quickly, potentially exacerbating market volatility [56][57].

中金研究 红利风格作为过去3年A股和港股市场持续性较好的主线之一，从去年"924"之后至今年3月，相对收益一度下降。4月初随着美国关税政策带来外部不确 定性，A股整体企业盈利景气行业预期受到影响，投资者对业绩稳定性和确定性的要求上升，红利风格关注度阶段回升。近期2024年年报披露结束， 2024年A股上市公司提升分红意愿进一步提升，在上市企业盈利增速同比有所下降的情况下，分红总额同比增长5%左右，成为高股息投资的重要支 撑。本报告结合2024年年报，重点梳理当前A股市场分红特征的变化情况，并对相关红利选股模型进行进一步优化与更新。 点击小程序查看报告原文 2024年A股上市公司的分红特征 A股上市公司现金分红总额创历史新高，约九成盈利企业进行现金分红。 2024年4月"新国九条"出台以来，监管层持续强化对现金分红的鼓励和支持力 度，叠加A股上市公司自由现金流改善，A股整体现金分红水平进一步提高。具体来看：1）2024年A股上市公司累计现金分红金额2.3万亿元，同比增速 5%；现金分红公司数量占比69.1%，剔除亏损上市公司后2024年分红公司数量占比89.3%。2）A股整体分红比例（现金分红/净利润）提升2. ...

中金研究 中国房地产政策的框架自2022年以来已经展现了诸多变化，往前看其仍将动态应对实体市场的变化 与挑战。眼下尽管中国房地产政策工具的丰富程度已然不低，但鉴于仍需在外部经济环境不确定性 加大、行业内部压力仍待疏解、以及各地区要素条件有所分化的背景下，持续推进止跌回稳，未来 中国房地产政策可能如何施力，还可以做哪些考虑，我们在此简述我们的一些思考与建议。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 止跌回稳的前置条件究竟是什么？我们认为或许首先是促进资产盘活，恢复行业流动性。 从国际比较 的视角看，中国本轮房地产市场的调整过程具有典型性，除了销售量价下行，库存升高以外，一个主要 的挑战是市场流动性不足，这既包括资产交易的难度加大，也包括企业的货币资源和现金流条件相对紧 张。然而从一个市场修复的时序来看，可能首要的是向居民和企业部门两端通过有效渠道注入适当的流 动性，然后可以渐进的推动实体市场供需格局与资产价格预期改善。其次，在比较大幅度的市场调整 中，尤其市场还处于去杠杆前期的阶段，针对企业端的流动性改善，以形成资产负债表企稳的路径，可 能相较于对需求侧的动员，是更有针对性的举措。 对于中国房地产政策， ...

中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 中金研究 CICC Research 一文看懂五一假期数据 >>点击图片查看全文<< 五一假期数据出炉。据商务部，五一假期全国重点零售和餐饮企业销售额同比增长6.3%，增速相较24年国庆（4.5%）、25年春节（5.4%）呈环比提 速。消费品类上以旧换新备受欢迎，演唱会、潮玩等体验型消费亦表现较好。据交通运输部[1]数据，"五一"假期前4日全社会跨区域人员流动量同比 增长约7.2%（vs.春节假期8天+5.8%），尤其铁路、水路和民航增幅环比提升较明显。我们观察到长线游和异地自驾出行规模扩容，差异化、品质化 趋势延续，出入境游表现亮眼。影视院线方面，2025年五一档票房表现相对平淡，建议关注后续暑期档影片定档进展。本文中，我们从轻工零售美 妆、旅游酒店及餐饮和传媒角度为大家详细解读。 2025.05.06 | 徐卓楠 林思婕 张雪晴等 02 中金研究 CICC Research 联合解读"一揽子金融政策"新闻发布会 >>点击图片查看全文<< 5月7日上午，国新办举行新闻发布会介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况[2]，央行、金融监 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current Chinese liquor industry is facing a demand gap, and the recovery from the cyclical bottom relies on demand support. The article explores long-term demand trends, analyzes the current demand situation, and summarizes the characteristics of demand recovery periods [1][3]. Demand Outlook - Long-term demand for liquor is expected to show slight contraction, with a projected annual decline in per capita consumption. The main drinking demographic (males aged 20-60) peaked at 425 million in 2020 and is forecasted to decline slightly over the next decade [3][8]. - Price growth is supported by rising household income and increasing market concentration, with a historical CAGR of 10% for liquor prices from 1999 to 2024. The next five years are expected to see continued mid-to-high single-digit price growth [3][17]. Demand Cycle Characteristics - Since 2013, liquor consumption has shifted from being primarily driven by political and business needs to a more diversified demand structure, with increased influence from household wealth effects [4][24]. - The liquor demand cycle has experienced four recovery phases from 2011 to 2022, with demand fluctuations typically beginning with policy stimuli and taking 1-2 quarters to reflect in financial reports [4][36]. - Market sentiment impacts stock prices, with positive sentiment lagging behind demand recovery by 1-2 quarters, while negative sentiment often leads stock prices to recover before demand bottoms out [4][35]. Current Demand Situation - The current demand for liquor is at a historical low, with a demand index at the 28th percentile over the past five years, indicating limited downside risk. The article anticipates gradual recovery supported by a favorable policy environment [5][43]. - Short-term demand is expected to be rigid, with potential recovery in banquet demand due to low base effects, while mid-term policy stimuli may stabilize high-end liquor demand [5][54]. Long-term Trends - The liquor industry is projected to continue experiencing slight volume contraction, with market share increasingly concentrated among leading enterprises. The number of large-scale liquor companies has decreased significantly from 1,593 in 2017 to 989 in 2024 [16][23]. - The price of liquor is expected to rise steadily, supported by ongoing increases in disposable income and the dual consumption and financial attributes of liquor, which provide resilience during economic downturns [17][23].