Key Insights - The current appreciation of the RMB is expected to enhance foreign investment interest in RMB assets and improve risk appetite, creating a positive cycle that boosts asset valuations and interbank liquidity [5] - Silver prices have surged over 170% this year, with increased volatility risks due to geopolitical tensions and strong industrial demand, leading to potential significant corrections [3] - The A-share market is projected to see a 5-10% increase in the Wande All A index in 2026, with a favorable environment for commodities over stocks and bonds [6] - The commercial aerospace sector in China is experiencing rapid growth, supported by policy, technology, and capital, forming a trillion-dollar industry chain [13] - The humanoid robot market is expected to reach $5 trillion by 2050, with a deployment of 1 billion units, indicating significant future growth potential [12] Equity Market - The RMB's appreciation is likely to enhance foreign capital inflows, positively impacting asset valuations and financial conditions [5] - The Wande All A index has shown a year-to-date increase of 28.07%, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 18.26% [9] - The Hang Seng Index has increased by 28.71% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 has risen by 17.82% [9] Industry Research - The technology investment landscape in 2026 is expected to be more challenging than in 2025, with increased market volatility and the need for precise industry timing and stock selection [12] - The commercial aerospace sector is positioned to support China's strategic goals, with significant growth potential in various application scenarios [13] - The humanoid robot market is anticipated to grow significantly, driven by advancements in technology and industry ecosystems [12] Macro and Fixed Income - The bond market is facing challenges, but potential opportunities may arise from oversold adjustments [18] - Demand for bonds is showing signs of marginal recovery, supported by increased corporate foreign exchange settlement needs [19] - The yield curve is expected to maintain a steep shape, with strategies focusing on capital gains and coupon income [20] Asset Allocation - The trend of "deposit migration" is reshaping asset allocation, with an increasing share of equity assets expected [22] - Investors are encouraged to diversify their portfolios to mitigate volatility and gradually increase equity asset proportions [22]

Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 930 billion yuan reverse repo operation with a fixed rate of 1.40% on December 26, resulting in a net injection of 368 billion yuan for the day after accounting for 562 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing [1] - A total of 622.7 billion yuan in reverse repos will mature in the week from December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, with significant amounts maturing on specific days [1] Funding Conditions - The interbank market maintains a stable and slightly loose funding condition, with the D R001 weighted average interest rate slightly decreasing and remaining below 1.26%, while the D R007 increased by about 4 basis points due to year-end factors [3] - The overnight financing rate in the U.S. is reported at 3.66% [3] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.64%, unchanged from the previous day [6] Government Bonds and Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures show an increase, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.36%, the 10-year by 0.10%, the 5-year by 0.05%, and the 2-year by 0.03% [10] Fiscal Policy Developments - The national fiscal work conference emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, focusing on expanding fiscal spending, optimizing government bond tools, and enhancing the effectiveness of transfer payment funds [11] - A new guideline was issued to strengthen the role of government financing guarantee systems in supporting employment and entrepreneurship, particularly for labor-intensive small and micro enterprises [11] Financial Sector Overview - As of the end of Q3 2025, the total assets of financial institutions in China reached 531.76 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, with the banking sector's assets at 474.31 trillion yuan, growing by 7.9% [11] Investment Fund Initiatives - The National Venture Capital Guidance Fund has been officially launched, with regional funds established in key areas to attract diverse investments and support innovative enterprises in strategic emerging industries [12] Global Economic Insights - Japan's government approved a preliminary budget for FY 2026, with total general account expenditures reaching 122.3092 trillion yen, marking a historical high due to rising costs and increased tax revenues [14]

Group 1 - The 2025 CICC Wealth Annual Investment Strategy Conference focuses on a comprehensive outlook for 2026, covering global macroeconomic trends, major asset classes, A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, bond markets, foreign exchange, and commodities, emphasizing the new investment paradigm under the theme "Ride the Momentum, Seek New Opportunities" [2] - Key speakers include leading analysts from CICC, providing insights into the impact of AI, easing trading conditions, economic recovery, and restructuring of order on investment strategies [2][3] Group 2 - The CICC Macro Strategy Weekly discusses strategies for positioning in the cross-year market, analyzing 50 key global and Chinese market charts, and exploring the implications of policy-driven supply-side reforms on consumption [5][6] - The report highlights the strengthening of the RMB and its effects on exchange rate dynamics and asset revaluation, aiming to assist investors in seizing opportunities at the beginning of 2026 [5][6] Group 3 - The macroeconomic outlook for the U.S. in 2026 includes considerations for the upcoming elections, with a focus on the interplay between monetary policy, fiscal measures, and tariff policies [8] - The U.S. economic forecast suggests a V-shaped recovery with a K-shaped structural outcome, indicating varied performance across sectors [9] Group 4 - The commercial aerospace sector is expected to benefit from the "14th Five-Year Plan," with significant opportunities arising from policy, performance, and technological advancements in 2026 [11] - Breakthroughs in rocket reusability are projected to significantly reduce launch costs and increase launch frequency, while advanced manufacturing concepts from the automotive industry will facilitate large-scale satellite production [11] Group 5 - The mechanical sector is witnessing a cyclical reversal and growth, with AI leading the charge in innovation and development [14] - Chinese industry leaders are positioned to shine on the global stage, reflecting a new wave of globalization [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rising popularity of Zhuyeqing liquor among Generation Z consumers, emphasizing a shift from traditional social drinking to a focus on self-enjoyment and emotional value in consumption [2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Generation Z is becoming the main consumer force, leading to a transformation in drinking culture that prioritizes "self-consumption" and "emotional value" over traditional social obligations [2]. - Zhuyeqing liquor meets the demand for a "low-burden drinking" experience, characterized by its herbal origins and moderate alcohol content, making it appealing to younger consumers [2][3]. Group 2: Product Characteristics - The taste profile of Zhuyeqing liquor combines the richness of grain liquor with herbal freshness, offering a complex and lingering aftertaste that aligns with the high-quality lifestyle aspirations of young consumers [2]. - The liquor's health-oriented attributes and quality are positioned to resonate with the current trends of health-conscious and moderate drinking among younger demographics [3]. Group 3: Brand Strategy - Zhuyeqing liquor is leveraging its historical legacy and scientific advancements to align with the needs of Generation Z, focusing on classic product value while exploring the potential of traditional liquors through quality upgrades [2][3]. - The brand is implementing an independent brand strategy that emphasizes innovation in flavors and product differentiation to break through market homogenization [3]. Group 4: Historical Significance - Zhuyeqing liquor has a rich history dating back 1500 years, with significant contributions from historical figures like Fu Shan and Hua Luogeng, who enhanced its formulation and production methods [5][6]. - The liquor's evolution from a traditional beverage to a modern favorite reflects its adaptability and enduring appeal across different eras, marking it as a significant part of Chinese liquor culture [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of a major enterprise's bond extension on the bond market, highlighting the importance of early risk warnings to mitigate potential losses for investors [1]. Group 1: Risk Warning and Analysis - Wind AI's machine learning model provided a risk warning 18 months prior to the bond extension, adjusting the risk rating from "medium risk" to "high risk" and then to "very high risk" [1]. - The risk ratings were updated multiple times, with the most recent rating on April 19, 2025, showing a score of 2.67, categorized as "very high risk" [2]. - The article emphasizes the need for timely risk assessments to allow investors to take necessary actions before crises occur [1]. Group 2: AliceRisk Tool - AliceRisk is introduced as a specialized tool for diagnosing default risks in credit bonds, designed to address pain points in credit bond investment research [3]. - The tool allows users to obtain risk assessments in three simple steps, making it accessible for investors [3]. - The scoring system ranges from 0 to 100, providing a clear and straightforward understanding of risk levels associated with credit bonds [10]. Group 3: Comprehensive Risk Assessment - The AliceRisk model incorporates various risk factors, including credit, market, liquidity, financial, and operational risks, along with macroeconomic and industry-specific external factors [12]. - The tool offers full coverage of industrial bonds, ensuring comprehensive risk assessments for credit investment research [13]. - Users can access a dedicated section for industrial bond default risk assessments through the Wind financial terminal, which includes both current and historical risk evaluation data [14].

Market News - The Ministry of Finance announced that a more proactive fiscal policy will continue in 2026, focusing on expanding fiscal expenditure, optimizing government bond tools, enhancing transfer payment efficiency, and improving expenditure structure [3] - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the December PMI data on December 31, with November's manufacturing PMI at 49.2%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from October [4] - The People's Bank of China aims to significantly increase the scale and proportion of various long-term funds invested in A-shares, promoting a virtuous cycle between capital market stability and high-quality economic development [6] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges announced a series of fee reduction measures for 2026, expected to save over 1.9 billion yuan in total [7] Sector Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology established a standardization committee for humanoid robots and embodied intelligence, focusing on key technologies and industry standards [11] - The 2025 Shenzhen Brain Conference aims to create a platform for industry integration and innovation [13] - The 2025 China Green Hydrogen Industry Conference will discuss policies and technological breakthroughs that will impact the green hydrogen industry chain [14] Individual Stock Events - CATL plans to apply sodium batteries on a large scale in various sectors including battery swapping and energy storage in 2026 [17] - Xiaomi's co-founder plans to reduce holdings of up to $2 billion in B-class common stock [17] - ST Huluwawa and its chairman are under investigation for information disclosure violations [17] Lock-up Expiration - A total of 34 companies will have lock-up shares released this week, amounting to 3.697 billion shares with a total market value of approximately 58.895 billion yuan [18] - The peak lock-up expiration date is December 30, with 13 companies releasing shares worth a total of 27.645 billion yuan [18] Institutional Outlook - CITIC Securities highlights that 39 out of 360 industry/theme ETFs reached new highs in December, with a focus on communication and resource-related ETFs [25] - Guojin Securities identifies new investment themes emerging in 2026, emphasizing the importance of AI investments and the recovery of global manufacturing [26] - Zhongtai Securities believes there is still upward potential in the market before the Spring Festival, with opportunities for low-cost positioning [27]

全国财政工作会议 12 月 27 日至 28 日在北京召开，财政部释放重磅政策信号。 财政部部长蓝佛安表示，明年将促进居民就业增收：统筹就业补助资金、失业保险基金等各类资金，引导支持企业稳岗扩岗、重点群体就业创业等； 积 极发挥税收、社会保障、转移支付等调节作用，多渠道增加居民收入。 据新华社报道，此次 全国财政工作会议 指出， 2026 年继续实施更加积极的财政政策。一是扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度。二是优化政府债券工 具组合，更好发挥债券效益。三是提高转移支付资金效能，增强地方自主可用财力。四是持续优化支出结构，强化重点领域保障。五是加强财政金融协 同，放大政策效能。 会议要求， 2026 年财政工作抓好以下重点任务 ： 坚持内需主导，支持建设强大国内市场。大力提振消费，深入实施提振消费专项行动。积极扩大有效投资，加大对新质生产力、人的全面发展等重点领域 投入。加快推进全国统一大市场建设，规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策。 支持科技创新和产业创新深度融合，加快培育壮大新动能。进一步增加财政科技投入，完善财政科技经费管理，强化企业科技创新主体地位。实 施制造 业重点产业链高质量发展行动，开展新一批制造业新型 ...

Group 1 - Offshore RMB against USD broke the 7 mark, reaching a 15-month high at 6.9985 on December 25, with onshore RMB also nearing the 7 mark at 7.0053, indicating a potential continued appreciation of the RMB in the coming year, though not expected to be unilateral [2][4] - After a surge in LOF funds, a significant decline was observed on December 25, with multiple LOF funds hitting the limit down, including a drop of over 9% for several gold-related LOFs, leading to restrictions on subscriptions for various funds [2][4] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau released a unified information disclosure management method for asset management products, which aims to standardize disclosure rules across different types of financial products, enhancing investor protection [3][4] Group 2 - JD.com announced that 92% of its employees will receive year-end bonuses, with total bonus investment increasing by over 70% year-on-year, indicating a significant rise in compensation within the industry [4] - A new QDII fund is set to be launched by Dacheng Fund, with the issuance period from December 29 to February 4, amidst a scarcity of new QDII quotas affecting the issuance of such funds [4][5] Group 3 - The U.S. economy showed a substantial growth in Q3 with a real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.3%, driven by strong consumer spending which accelerated to a growth rate of 3.5% [6][4] - Recent trends in global stock markets showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.88% and the Hang Seng Index by 0.50%, while U.S. markets also saw gains [7][4] Group 4 - Recent data indicated a decline in Chinese government bond yields, with 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year yields dropping by 9.5 basis points, 4.14 basis points, and 0.82 basis points respectively [9][10] - The recent week saw a general increase in fund indices, with the Wande All Fund Index rising by 1.43%, and specific categories like equity and mixed funds showing stronger performance [11][4] Group 5 - In the commodity market, precious metals saw significant gains, with COMEX gold rising by 3.98% and silver by 18.06%, while oil prices experienced a slight increase [12][4] - The dominance of fixed-income plus funds in bank financing products was highlighted, with 384 such funds accounting for 56.31% of the total number and 74.07% of the total scale [13][14] Group 6 - The trend of bank wealth management subsidiaries becoming the core financing entities reflects a concentration and specialization in China's banking system, with regional banks remaining active but limited in scale [15][4] - The recent issuance of wealth management products showed a strong performance in benchmark yields, with leading wealth management subsidiaries achieving higher returns [20][4]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a strong upward trend last week, with major indices rising, particularly the CSI 500 and ChiNext 50, which increased by 4.03% and 4.07% respectively, indicating active performance in small and mid-cap growth stocks [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.88%, while the CSI 300 increased by 1.95%, reflecting steady growth in large-cap blue-chip stocks [2] - The CSI Dividend Index, representing value stocks, saw a modest increase of only 0.55%, highlighting ongoing structural differentiation in the market, favoring growth and small-cap stocks [2] Industry Performance - Most sectors in the Wande primary industry index rose last week, with Materials (+5.85%) and Information Technology (+4.36%) leading the gains, benefiting from policy support and improved industry sentiment [12] - Consumer Discretionary (-0.65%) and Communication Services (-0.34%) experienced slight pullbacks, indicating continued weakness in the consumer sector [12] - The market is shifting towards high-growth manufacturing and technology sectors [12] Fund Issuance - A total of 52 funds were issued last week, including 18 equity funds, 15 mixed funds, 13 bond funds, and 6 FOFs, with a total issuance of 27.894 billion units [18] Fund Performance - The Wande All-Fund Index rose by 1.43% last week, with the ordinary equity fund index increasing by 2.55% and the mixed equity fund index rising by 2.68%, indicating strong performance in equity funds [7] - The bond fund index saw a slight increase of 0.17%, while equity funds showed robust growth [7] Global Market Review - The U.S. stock market exhibited a "Christmas rally," with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq rising by 1.40%, 1.20%, and 1.22% respectively, indicating strong performance in global equity markets [4] - Commodity markets saw significant gains, with natural gas leading at a 10.54% increase, and gold rising by 3.98%, reflecting heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical and inflationary risks [4] - The U.S. economic momentum is weakening, leading to market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, with the dollar index declining by approximately 0.68% to 98.03 [4]

Group 1 - The 2026 National People's Congress will convene on March 4 and 5, with the agenda including the review of the 15th Five-Year Plan draft [3][4] - From January to November, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises reached 66,268.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, while November saw a 13.1% decline in profits compared to the previous year [3] Group 2 - The National People's Congress passed a revised Foreign Trade Law, effective from March 1, 2026, which includes provisions for aligning with international trade rules and promoting new trade models [4] - The total number of ETFs in the market reached 1,391, with a total scale of 6.03 trillion yuan, marking a growth of 354.52 billion yuan [6] Group 3 - At least 10 commercial space companies have initiated IPO processes, with five focusing on launch vehicles [6] - Since November, 95 companies related to the satellite industry have disclosed significant financing activities, with an overall financing balance of 690.55 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of over 45% compared to the previous year [7] Group 4 - The robot industry index has increased by 33.5% this year, with a high concentration of humanoid robots in the index components [8] - The market for elderly care products in China is projected to grow from 2.6 trillion yuan in 2014 to 5.4 trillion yuan by 2024 [10] Group 5 - The State Tobacco Monopoly Administration reported that since the regulation of e-cigarettes, nearly 20,000 administrative cases have been handled, with over 15 billion yuan involved [11] - The establishment of a standardization committee for humanoid robots and embodied intelligence was announced, focusing on key technologies and safety standards [12]