Economic Overview - The economic outlook has slightly deteriorated, with growth rate forecasts down by 0.3 percentage points and unemployment rate up by 0.1 percentage points compared to March predictions [2] - The PCE and core PCE inflation forecasts have been raised by 0.3 percentage points, with tariffs expected to push prices higher this year [2] Policy Insights - The dot plot indicates a "bimodal distribution" within the Federal Reserve, with one faction focused on the impact of tariffs on prices and another concerned about the economic growth implications [4] - Seven officials predict no rate cuts in 2025, while two expect only one cut this year, and eight anticipate two cuts [4] - Powell emphasized the uncertainty in the economic outlook and stated that no official can make a clear prediction on interest rate movements under current conditions [3][4] Market Strategy - The market reacted moderately to the Fed's meeting, with a neutral trading return at the close [5] - The OIS curve suggests a 48 basis point reduction in rates by 2025, approximately two cuts [5] - U.S. Treasury yields showed minimal changes, with the 2-year yield at 3.94%, 5-year at 3.99%, 10-year at 4.39%, and 30-year at 4.89% [5] - The dollar index increased by 0.06% to 98.878, with the offshore RMB exchange rate stabilizing around 7.19 [6] - The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones indices showed little movement, indicating a cautious market sentiment [7] - The 10-year yield above 4.5% and 5-year yield above 4.1% are seen as suitable entry points, with potential for a technical rebound in the dollar providing selling opportunities [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the recent US-China tariff changes on China's exports and economic growth, emphasizing the need for proactive fiscal policies to mitigate these effects and support local governments [6][8][12]. Group 1: Tariff Impact and Economic Growth - The current round of US tariffs on China is broader, faster, and higher than during the 2018 trade war, with an average tariff rate of approximately 41.2% [6][7]. - It is estimated that by 2025, China's exports to the US may decline by about 19.2%, resulting in a potential reduction of 720 billion in export scale, with overall export growth being dragged down by 1.1-2.0 percentage points [8][10]. - The high dependency of certain industries on US exports may lead to significant impacts on production investment and profits, further affecting consumer demand and employment [8][10]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy Adjustments - The total fiscal space for 2025 is projected to reach 41.6 trillion, a significant increase of 2.5 trillion from the previous year, marking the highest level in history [14][16]. - The target deficit rate for 2025 is set to exceed 4.0%, indicating a proactive fiscal stance [18][20]. - The budget revenue targets are conservative, with a growth target of only 0.1%, reflecting ongoing economic pressures [21][22]. Group 3: Budgetary and Debt Management - The budgetary expenditures are expected to grow significantly, with a combined growth rate of 9.2% for general public budgets and government fund budgets [26][28]. - Government bonds are identified as the primary source of fiscal revenue, with net financing expected to expand by nearly one-third compared to the previous year [26][28]. - The budget outside the fiscal framework is anticipated to open further, potentially reaching 7.8 trillion, which would account for 5.5% of nominal GDP [34][36]. Group 4: Local Government Financial Pressure - Local governments are facing significant financial pressures, with increasing reliance on central government transfers, which are expected to reach 11.6 trillion in 2025 [52][56]. - The overall debt burden for local governments is rising, with the debt ratio projected to reach 165.7% in 2024 [52][56]. - The article highlights the need for local governments to optimize spending and focus on essential services while managing debt repayment [57][60]. Group 5: Central Government Support - The central government is expected to increase its fiscal support, with a focus on enhancing local government capabilities and addressing debt issues [63][65]. - The issuance of special bonds and long-term bonds is set to increase, aimed at supporting investment and consumption [63][65]. - The central government's leverage capacity remains substantial compared to other major economies, allowing for further fiscal maneuvering [65][67].

Core Viewpoint - China is leveraging its advantages in the drone industry to establish a leading position in the low-altitude economy, focusing on the commercialization of application scenarios, particularly in logistics and transportation [1][2]. Group 1: Low-altitude Economy Development - The low-altitude economy is advancing towards electrification, intelligence, and connectivity, aiming to bypass Western technological barriers and establish standards and regulations [5][10]. - The current scale of China's low-altitude economy has exceeded 500 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 33.8%, and is expected to surpass one trillion yuan in the next three years [2][12]. - The commercialization of low-altitude economic application scenarios is progressing in phases, with consumer markets maturing and sectors like agricultural protection and industrial inspection entering commercial operations [1][12]. Group 2: Low-altitude Logistics Market - The low-altitude logistics market is projected to grow rapidly, reaching approximately 330.5 billion yuan in 2024 and potentially becoming a trillion-yuan market within five years [2][18]. - The penetration of drones in the last-mile delivery market has completed the "0 to 1" process, with expectations for large drones in trunk and branch logistics to follow [2][17]. - The demand for drones from logistics companies like SF Express and Meituan is expected to drive investment in the drone manufacturing and component sectors, reshaping the competitive landscape [2][46]. Group 3: Commercialization Pathways - The commercialization of low-altitude logistics will occur in two phases: expanding city and route coverage, followed by increasing flight density [25][37]. - The average delivery time for drone logistics is significantly reduced compared to traditional methods, with potential cost savings as drone usage scales up [27][31]. - The integration of drones into logistics is expected to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, making low-altitude logistics one of the most promising application scenarios [26][36]. Group 4: Industry Collaboration and Future Outlook - Major logistics companies are collaborating with startups to lead the development of the drone logistics industry, with significant procurement orders expected to reshape the competitive landscape [46][47]. - The future investment in the low-altitude logistics sector is anticipated to exceed 500 billion yuan, driven by the demand for drone procurement and operational infrastructure [43][44]. - The rapid growth of the express delivery and instant delivery markets presents substantial opportunities for drone logistics, with significant room for penetration in both sectors [38][39].

美国经济保持稳步扩张态势，美联储年内降息预期维持在2次（约50bp），降息终点预期维持在3.5%。 亚特兰大联储GDPNOW模型预测二季度美国实际GDP年化增速稳定在3.8%，投资扩张继续减速，长端利率上 行的紧缩效应再度显现。个人消费（PCE）增速稳定在2.5%，商品（3.0%）与服务（2.2%）同步扩张；私人 投资（不含库存）增速降至1.1%，主要来自地产（-1.6%）及建筑（-3.3%）分项的拖累。 失业率趋势企稳。周频首次申领失业金人数稳定在24.8万，结束了一轮上行趋势，符合季节性水平。通胀再起 波澜，中东局势恶化推升油价，Truflation日频通胀指数上行22bp至2.06%。 海外策略：美元延续弱势行情 财政保持扩张立场。周频财政赤字额达到$407亿，继续超出季节性水平。2025财年美国赤字水平将继续处于高 位。 基于"双目标"及经济、财政形势推演，美联储并无大幅调整政策的动机，维持年内降息不超2次（50bp）判 断，甚至可能不降息。 上周影响海外市场走势的逻辑有两条：一是美国通胀数据低于预期，市场交易偏鸽。二是伊以冲突升级，避险 情绪升温。在此背景下，美债、黄金表现较好，美元跌至年内最低，人 ...

Core Viewpoint - The economic data for May indicates a mixed performance, with supply-side growth remaining strong while demand-side indicators show signs of slowing down, particularly in investment and real estate sectors [1][5]. Supply Side: Strong Support - In May, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly above the market expectation of 5.7% [6]. - The manufacturing sector saw a marginal slowdown, with high-tech industries maintaining robust growth rates of 8.6% [6]. - The service sector production index increased by 6.2%, driven by recovering consumer demand and increased holiday travel [9]. Fixed Asset Investment: Real Estate Drag - Fixed asset investment grew by 3.7% year-on-year, below the expected 4.1%, with infrastructure and manufacturing growth rates declining [10]. - Real estate investment saw a significant decline of 10.7%, indicating ongoing challenges in the property market [10][14]. - The construction sector is under pressure due to local government debt and slow issuance of special bonds for projects [10][11]. Consumption: Accelerating Beyond Expectations - Social retail sales increased by 6.4%, significantly higher than the market expectation of 4.8%, with both goods and catering consumption reaching new highs for the year [19]. - The increase in consumption is attributed to policy effects, pre-scheduled shopping festivals, and high demand for electronics and home appliances [19][22]. Outlook: Stabilizing with Localized Pressure - The impact of tariff changes on the economy is expected to weaken, with the second quarter growth likely to exceed earlier market expectations [24]. - However, persistent low prices may continue to erode corporate profits and delay improvements in consumer expectations [24].

Group 1 - The article discusses the increasing uncertainty in global economic policies and the challenges investors face in wealth growth, particularly in the context of low interest rates in China and high volatility in equity assets [1][4] - It introduces two classic asset allocation models: the Permanent Portfolio and the All Weather Portfolio, which aim to create low-volatility investment strategies that can withstand economic cycles [1][4] - Historical data from 1971 to 2024 shows that both models have achieved annualized returns of 8-9% in the US market, with the Permanent Portfolio yielding 8.4% and the All Weather Portfolio yielding 8.7% [10][11] Group 2 - The long-term effectiveness of these models is attributed to three main reasons: economic growth and monetary expansion leading to positive returns on underlying assets, low correlation among assets reducing portfolio volatility, and diversification and rebalancing enhancing compound returns [2][19] - The article emphasizes that the long-term returns of various asset classes are generally positive, with equities outperforming other assets, which is crucial for the portfolio's ability to exceed nominal GDP growth [2][20][22] Group 3 - The article details the asset allocation ratios for both models, explaining that there is no optimal allocation ratio as it depends on individual risk preferences and return objectives [3][55] - It highlights the importance of understanding the long-term returns and volatility of underlying assets, as well as their correlations, to make informed allocation decisions [56][57] Group 4 - The article analyzes the performance of the Permanent and All Weather Portfolios in the US market, showing that both portfolios have lower volatility compared to individual asset classes while achieving returns close to equities [14][18] - It provides a detailed examination of the historical performance of these portfolios, including their maximum drawdowns and annual returns over the years [10][11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the inflation trends in May, highlighting a slight decrease in CPI and a more significant drop in PPI, with implications for future economic conditions and policy responses [1][10]. Group 1: CPI Inflation - May CPI inflation was reported at -0.1% year-on-year, matching the previous value and exceeding market expectations of -0.2% [1][2]. - Energy prices have significantly dragged down CPI inflation, while core CPI showed slight upward support [2][6]. - Food prices experienced a mild decline, with a 0.2% drop month-on-month, which is less than the average decline of 1.4% over the past five years [5]. - Core CPI inflation rose slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 0.6% year-on-year, although month-on-month momentum has weakened [6][7]. - Service prices remained resilient, with travel prices increasing by 0.8% month-on-month, surpassing the five-year average of 0.2% [6]. Group 2: PPI Inflation - May PPI inflation was reported at -3.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and -0.4% month-on-month, which is weaker than the historical average since 2017 [10][12]. - The decline in PPI is attributed to weak oil prices affecting the entire industrial chain and a slowdown in the construction sector due to adverse weather conditions [10][12]. - Despite the overall decline, there are signs of recovery in prices related to exports and new growth sectors, with textile prices narrowing their decline and some electronic prices turning positive [12][15]. Group 3: Forward Outlook - Looking ahead, energy prices are expected to remain weak, with Brent crude oil projected to fluctuate between $60 and $70 [9]. - The overall pace of CPI recovery is anticipated to be slow, influenced by policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption [16]. - For the second quarter, CPI inflation is expected to stabilize around 0%, while PPI inflation may drop to approximately -3.0% [16].

Core Viewpoint - In May, China's import and export growth rates declined due to tariff impacts, with exports slowing and imports decreasing significantly, while trade surplus expanded substantially [1][4]. Exports: Tariff Impact and Declining Growth - In May, export value grew by 4.8% year-on-year, a further slowdown of 3.3 percentage points from April, primarily due to a significant drop in exports to the U.S. [5] - The U.S. import demand weakened significantly, influenced by frequent adjustments in U.S. tariff policies and increased operational costs due to trade uncertainties [5] - Exports to non-U.S. regions, such as Europe (12%), ASEAN (14.8%), and Africa (33.3%), maintained strong growth, although the momentum may slow down in the future [5][8]. Import: Widening Decline - In May, the import value decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, a widening decline of 3.2 percentage points [14] - Imports from the U.S. fell by 18.1%, with the decline expanding by 4.3 percentage points compared to April, reflecting weak domestic demand [14] - Despite a significant decrease in imports from the U.S., imports from the EU showed a slight recovery, indicating a potential substitution effect [14]. Outlook: Export Pressure in the Second Half - Export growth is expected to further slow down in the second half of the year, with the average tariff rate on Chinese goods in the U.S. remaining high at 41.2% [17] - The ongoing tariff negotiations between the U.S. and Southeast Asia may disrupt China's foreign investment pace and affect exports through multinational supply chains [17].

海外策略：稳步扩张 美国经济保持稳步扩张态势，美联储年内降息预期维持在2次（约50bp），降息终点预期维持在3.5%。 上周亚特兰大联储GDPNOW模型预测二季度美国实际GDP年化增速较前值回落0.8pct至3.8%，前期长端利率上 行的紧缩效应再度显现。个人消费增速降至2.6%，商品（3.3%）与服务（2.3%）均在放缓；私人投资（不含 库存）增速降至1.6%，主要来自地产（-0.9%）及建筑（-3.0%）分项的拖累。 失业率仍在上行，但斜率极缓。 周频首次申领失业金人数上行至24.7万，符合季节性水平。5月失业率较4月上 行0.05pct至4.24%，连续第3个月维持在4.2%左右。 市场对通胀的担忧亦在缓和。 Truflation日频通胀指数降至 1.84%，较前期高点回落26bp。 财政延续了"言语收缩，行为扩张"的基调。 尽管一直在进行各种缩减赤字的表态及尝试，但实际上财政赤字 仍在扩张。周频财政赤字额达到$1,275亿，继续超出季节性水平。2025财年美国赤字水平将继续处于高位。 基于货币政策"双目标"及经济、财政形势推演，美联储并无大幅调整政策的动机，我们维持年内降息不超2次 （50bp）判断， ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market continues to show signs of normalization, with the unemployment rate gradually rising, influenced by both long-term and short-term factors. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current stance on interest rates, with limited room for rate cuts in the near future [1][14]. Group 1: Employment Data - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding market expectations of 126,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, while the labor force participation rate fell to 62.4% [1][17]. - The average hourly wage growth year-on-year was 3.9%, surpassing the expected 3.7% [1][17]. Group 2: Unemployment Rate Trends - The unemployment rate has been gradually increasing, rising by 5 basis points to 4.24% in May, maintaining around 4.2% for the past quarter [2][3]. - The three-month moving average of job vacancies was recorded at 4.4%, which is 0.3 percentage points lower than the mid-2024 average [6]. Group 3: Short-term Influences - Consumer sentiment has improved, with the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index showing signs of recovery, indicating that the impact of tariffs on consumer sentiment is easing [8][9]. - The financial situation of U.S. households has improved, supported by fiscal expansion, leading to a decrease in employment willingness and an increase in hiring demand [8][10]. Group 4: Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is experiencing tightening supply and demand dynamics, with a slight rebound in the job vacancy ratio to 1.03 in April. The average hourly wage growth increased by 0.2 percentage points to 0.4% in May [14]. - The forecast suggests that the unemployment rate may continue to rise gradually, expected to fluctuate between 4.2% and 4.6% throughout the year [14]. Group 5: Market Reactions - Following the stronger-than-expected employment data, U.S. Treasury yields across all maturities rose significantly, with the 2-year yield increasing by 11.6 basis points to 4.04% [15]. - The U.S. dollar index saw a slight increase of 0.45% to 99.19, while major U.S. stock indices all posted gains, with the S&P 500 rising by 1.03% [15]. Group 6: Investment Strategy - The company has adjusted its long-term positioning for 10-year Treasuries to 4.6% and for 5-year Treasuries to 4.15%, maintaining a long-term bearish outlook on the dollar [16]. - The expectation is that any technical rebounds in the dollar will present selling opportunities, as the long-term downtrend in the dollar is anticipated to continue [16].