Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a comprehensive financial policy package aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations, expanding domestic demand, promoting technological innovation, and supporting enterprises, with coordinated efforts from monetary policy, financial regulation, and capital market policies [1][2]. Policy Overview: Comprehensive Financial Policy Efforts - The monetary policy includes ten measures across three categories, such as a comprehensive reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates, aimed at maintaining liquidity and supporting consumption and innovation [2][3]. - Financial regulatory policies focus on stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, supporting enterprises, and enhancing financial supervision to promote the development of new productive forces [4]. - Capital market policies consist of six measures designed to ensure market stability and resilience, with a commitment to supporting the capital market's long-term health [5]. Policy Characteristics: Strengthening Counter-Cyclical Adjustments - The necessity for extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments has increased due to external challenges, such as the "reciprocal tariffs" announced by the Trump administration, which exceeded market expectations [6]. - The central government's recent meeting emphasized the need for timely implementation of established policies and the introduction of incremental reserve policies to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments [6]. Monetary Policy: Moderate Total and Loose Structure - The monetary policy measures reflect a "moderately loose" stance, with timely and appropriate reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, aimed at maintaining liquidity and supporting key sectors [7][8]. - Structural tools are designed to support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, and foreign trade, with significant funding allocated to these initiatives [10]. Financial Regulatory Policies: Supporting Asset Prices and High-Quality Development - The focus on stabilizing the real estate and stock markets is crucial for maintaining expectations and promoting domestic demand [11]. - Regulatory measures include enhancing financing stability for real estate and increasing support for small and private enterprises, as well as optimizing the financial environment for foreign trade [12]. Capital Market Policies: Stabilizing the Stock Market and Promoting Innovation - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) will collaborate with various financial institutions to maintain market activity and stability, with a focus on supporting technological innovation and enhancing the capital market's openness [13]. - The policies aim to create a virtuous cycle of returns, funding, and market stability, while also addressing the impacts of external tariff policies on listed companies [13]. Market Impact: Positive Trends in Stocks and Bonds, Stable Currency - The policies are expected to provide strong support for the A-share market, with a focus on stabilizing the market and expectations amid external uncertainties [14]. - The technology sector is identified as the primary beneficiary of the policies, receiving comprehensive support across various financial instruments [15]. - The bond market is anticipated to experience mixed performance, with short-term bonds benefiting from lower funding costs due to interest rate cuts [17]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain stable, influenced by ongoing US-China trade negotiations and domestic monetary policy adjustments [18].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. non-farm employment data exceeded market expectations, indicating a steady expansion in the labor market, but signs of cooling are emerging, suggesting potential future increases in the unemployment rate [1][5][17]. Employment Data Summary - In April, the U.S. added 177,000 non-farm jobs, surpassing the market expectation of 138,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.2% and a labor participation rate of 62.6% [1][5]. - The three-month moving average for job additions stands at 155,000, reflecting a stable growth trend [5]. - Job growth is concentrated in sectors experiencing labor shortages, with education and healthcare contributing 70,000 jobs, trade adding 29,000, and leisure and hospitality contributing 24,000, accounting for 69.5% of the total job additions [5][6]. Signs of Labor Market Cooling - Job vacancy rates have declined, with the vacancy rate dropping by 0.5 percentage points to 4.3%, indicating a potential shift towards equilibrium in the labor market [8][10]. - The ratio of job vacancies to job seekers has decreased to 1.03, suggesting that the labor market is nearing a balance between supply and demand [8]. - Wage growth has softened, with average hourly earnings increasing by only 0.2% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year, indicating a shift from a "seller's market" to a "buyer's market" [12][14]. Unemployment Structure and Trends - The number of permanent jobless individuals surged by 105,000 to 1.915 million, while the number of individuals re-entering the labor market increased by 60,000 to 2.236 million, reflecting a deteriorating unemployment structure [15][17]. - Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by 18,000 to 241,000, significantly above seasonal levels, indicating rising unemployment [15][16]. Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve Policy - The combination of tariff impacts on corporate profits and household finances may lead to an increase in the unemployment rate, prompting the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts mid-year [17][19]. - Long-term, the strict immigration policies may affect labor supply, and the anticipated decline in interest rates could support economic stability, suggesting that any rise in unemployment may be relatively moderate [17][19]. Market Strategy - The company maintains a cautious approach towards U.S. Treasury bonds, with entry points set at 4.4% for 10-year bonds and 4.1% for 5-year bonds, while also anticipating a potential technical rebound in the U.S. dollar in Q2 [3][19]. - The market's reaction to the strong employment data indicates a belief in the resilience of the labor market, with expectations of three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [18][19].

假日消费是观测经济活力的重要窗口期，我们对五一假期消费数据简评如下。 一、出行：人员流动活跃，民航量价齐升 据交通运输部，今年五一假期期间（5月1日至5月5日），全社会跨区域人员流动量达14.66亿人次，日均超2.9 亿人次，同比增长7.9%，较2019年同期增长23.7%，超出节前预期。分出行方式看： 1）与2024年同期相比，各类出行方式的客运量实现平稳增长。 五一假期，水运/民航/铁路/非营业性小客车/营 业性公路客运量分别同比增长23.8%/11.8%/10.8%/8.1%/4.4%，水路表现相对突出。 2）与2019年同期相比，自驾出行仍是主力。 高速公路及普通国省道非营业性小客车人员出行量较2019年同期 增长超50%，在人员流动总量中占比接近八成，自驾出行延续高热度。营业性运输中，铁路、民航表现较好， 客流较2019年同期分别增长36.6%、24.2%；公路和水运恢复程度较低。 图1：五一期间各类出行方式累计客运量相比2024/2019年同期的增速 注 ： 公路- 非营业 性 包 含 高 速 公 路 及 普 通国省道非营业性小客车 3）民航市场从量升价跌到量价齐升。 从量上看， 据航班管家数据， ...

Economic Overview - The latest "hard data" indicates that the US economy remains resilient, with Q1 GDP showing a private sector annualized growth rate of 3.0% after excluding inventory, government purchases, and trade [2] - The job market is stable, with April non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 138,000, and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2% [2] - High-frequency data suggests that the impact of tariffs on the US economy is beginning to manifest, but a recession is still distant. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicts a Q2 annualized growth rate for private consumption of 1.9% and a significant drop in private investment growth to 1.3% [2] Market Sentiment and Currency - During the May Day holiday, the risk appetite in overseas markets improved due to better-than-expected non-farm payrolls and signs of easing trade tensions, leading to a rise in US stocks and a rebound in US Treasury yields [4] - The offshore RMB appreciated rapidly, breaking the 7.20 mark, driven by improved market sentiment [4] - The medium-term outlook for the US dollar shows a decline in its fundamental advantages, with short-term fluctuations dependent on trade negotiations [4] Gold Market - The risk of stagflation in the US is rising, coupled with increased central bank gold purchases, suggesting a bullish fundamental outlook for gold. However, short-term overbought conditions may lead to some price correction [5] Domestic Economic Conditions - Domestic demand is under pressure, with retail and catering sales during the May Day holiday increasing by 6.3% year-on-year, surpassing previous holiday performances, while real estate transactions show significant divergence across cities [7] - In April, the transaction volume of new homes in 30 major cities decreased by 12.8% year-on-year, indicating a negative growth trend since November of the previous year [7] - Cross-border tourism has shown strong performance, with international flight numbers increasing by 21.3% year-on-year [8] External Demand and Policy Measures - Overall external demand pressure is evident, but there are signs of recovery in import demand as US importers deplete inventories. Key port throughput has increased since mid-April [8] - The Chinese government is set to implement policies aimed at stabilizing employment, foreign trade, and consumption, with measures expected to roll out in the second quarter [9] - Fiscal measures will accelerate the implementation of the annual budget, focusing on local government bond issuance to support basic livelihood needs [9]

大类资产配置建议表 | | 大类资产 | 月度趋势 | | 配置建议(未来６个月) | | | 配置变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 高配 中高配 | 标配 | 中低配 | 低配 | | | 汇率 | 美元 | 震荡 | | O | | | 下调 | | | 欧元 | 震荡 | | 0 | | | 上调 | | | 人民币 | 偏弱震荡 | | 0 | | | | | | 日元 | 震荡 | | 0 | | | | | | 英镑 | 震荡 | | 0 | | | | | | 中国国债 | 震荡 | | 0 | | | | | | 中国信用债 | 震荡 | | 0 | | | | | 固收 | 可转债 | 震荡 | | 0 | | | | | | 美元债 | 偏强震荡 | ● | O | | | | | | A 股 | 震荡 | | | | | | | | 一消费 | 震荡 | | 0 | | | | | | 一周期 | 震荡 | | 0 | | | | | | 一成长 | 震荡 | | O | | | | | 权益 | ...

事件：4月24日，工业和信息化部、商务部、国家卫生健康委、国家医保局、国家数据局、国家中医药局、国 家药监局等七部门近日联合印发《医药工业数智化转型实施方案（2025—2030年）》。《实施方案》提出以全 产业链协调发展为主线，以数智化改造为主攻方向推进医药工业高端化、智能化、绿色化、融合化发展。 1、两步走发展目标，2030年规上医药工业企业基本实现数智化转型全覆盖。 《实施方案》确立了分阶段推进的两步走发展战略，以 2027 年和 2030 年作为关键时间节点。2027年前，重点 聚焦于数智化发展的基础建设、转型推广以及支撑服务体系的搭建工作。在这一阶段，设定了涵盖关键技术突 破、技术标准制定、产品研发创新、应用场景拓展、数智转型企业及园区数量增长、医药大模型创新平台建设 及服务商培育等多维度的具体量化目标，力求实现医药工业数智化转型的重要阶段性突破，显著提升以数智技 术驱动的医药全产业链竞争力，以及全生命周期质量管理水平。到 2030 年，目标实现规模以上医药工业企业 数智化转型的全面覆盖，大幅增强数智技术的融合创新能力，进一步完善医药工业全链条数据体系，健全医药 工业数智化转型生态体系。 2、全产业链 ...

海外经济："欧强美弱"遭遇挑战 海外经济"欧强美弱"叙事遭遇阶段性挑战。 关税对美国经济的冲击仍然停留在居民部门，企业部门及就业市场继续表现出较强韧性。 截至4月24日，亚特 兰大联储GDPNOW模型预测Q1消费增速为1.4%，投资增速为7.1%，表现为消费小幅转冷，投资逆势扩张。单 周首次申领失业金人数为22.2万，小幅强于季节性。 随着关税落地，美国经济仍可能进一步转冷。然而，基于当前形势判断，美国经济更可能陷入相对温和的技术 性衰退，不排除避免衰退的可能性。 一是相对强劲的企业部门将承接大部分关税冲击。大通胀期间美国企业部门积累大量利润，企业利润扩张逾八 成，而工人薪资仅增长约三成。根据相关研究，进口商将承担超80%关税成本，消费者仅承担不到20%。 二是就业市场受到供给侧支撑。随着非法移民逐步退出就业市场，美国"劳工荒"形势依然严峻。尽管经济转冷 可能带来雇佣需求的收缩，但移民劳工的退出将令供给同步收缩，最终失业率可能保持稳定。 三是特朗普团队已在面临"一鼓作气，再而衰，三而竭"的窘境。马斯克政府效率部的工作近乎停滞，与美联储 的"降息之争"没有得到足够支持，与全球各国的贸易谈判普遍陷入僵局，对俄乌冲 ...

■ Transformer架构为高阶智驾商业化落地注入革命性动力。 目前，中国在汽车电动化发展中获得领先，而被 公认为汽车革命下半场的智能化成为全球各大车企竞争的焦点。近两年，以Transformer为代表的大模型较 CNN在数据训练的优势更为突出，在自然语言处理领域几乎取代了RNN，并被引入计算机视觉领域，成为高 阶智驾发展的核心引擎。 我们认为AI驱动的智能化正为中国汽车产业塑造新的竞争优势，或将促使我国汽车 产业从市场追随者向行业规则制定者转变。 ■ 驱动高阶智驾加速渗透的因素是什么？ 从政策端看， 工信部联合其他三部门敲定了首批九家获得智能网联 汽车准入及L3级别上路通行试点资格的企业名单，这标志着高阶智驾的商业化落地正渐行渐近。 从需求端 看， 智能驾驶凭借显著降低人为因素引发事故、提升道路交通安全水平的优势，已成为影响用户购车决策的 关键因素。 从供给端看， 特斯拉FSD的迅猛发展以及硬件成本的持续降低，正促使中国车企与科技企业加速 高阶智驾领域的产业布局。 ■ AI如何赋能高阶智驾持续升级？ 从算法端看， AI大模型的发展与智能驾驶技术的演进之间已形成深度共生 关系，从技术底层、系统能力到生态体 ...

4月25日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。总体上看，会议认为今年以 来我国经济发展向好，但"持续回升向好的基础还需要进一步稳固"。 会议直面"外部冲击影响加大"的 严峻挑战，指出"要强化底线思维，充分备足预案"，以"四稳"，即稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期为 抓手，强调"以我为主"的基本政策立场，扎实推动经济高质量发展，应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定 性。 三、重点工作：稳就业、促消费、保民生 巩固内需的首要任务仍是提振消费，以"增强消费对经济增长的拉动作用"为总目标，重点在服务消费加 大资金支持。 一是再贷款政策从普惠养老扩展至服务消费，降低服务业企业的融资成本。二是"以旧换 新"政策将扩围至文体、旅游等服务消费，资金力度将视情况从全年3,000亿增至5,000-7,000亿，或提升 社零增速2pct以上。 保民生工作，就业是重中之重。就业问题，既是企业部门经营情况的直观反映，也是居民部门提振消费 能力、改善消费预期的基础。 会议全文中"稳就业"三次出现并置于"四稳"之首。各类企业面对关税冲 击的程度不同，会议有针对性地提出"提高失业保险基金稳岗返还比例"。此项政策在疫情期间为就业岗 ...

■ 我国物流成本高企的根源在于运输结构失衡与多式联运效率不足的长期矛盾。 公路运输虽承担着七成以上 的货运量， 但其单位成本和碳排放强度远高于水运。在此背景下，加快运河网络与高等级航道建设成为破局 关键——通过提升水运比重优化运输结构，配合智能化港口与自动化装卸设备强化铁水、公水联运的无缝衔 接，可系统性降低物流总成本。 ■ 内陆运河建设正悄然重塑中国经济地理格局。 当西江航道网将西南区域与大湾区的货运时效压缩至36小 时，西部地区低成本能源优势与东部地区沿海港口物流优势自此实现了跨区域联动，为未来优化产业布局提供 了基建基础。这种"空间折叠"效应不仅推动化工、冶金等产业向新能源富集区梯度转移，更促进生产要素在全 国范围内的优化重组，为构建多中心、网络化的产业布局奠定基础，最终推动东中西部从发展断层走向协同共 生的新格局。 ■ 我国水运体系正通过"高标基建—联运协同—智能节点"三层次布局， 支撑国家物流降本与经济一体化战 略：核心主线层面聚焦于高标准航道建设， 未来十年投资缺口 约1万亿元。由线向面的扩展指向多式联运体系 优化。地理条件受限下，需整合水运、铁路、公路等多方式协同。未来仍需进一步投入港口专用线网 ...