Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of monitoring bank interest margins while maintaining a balanced approach in monetary policy execution [3] - The report highlights the resilience of the real economy in China, indicating a positive outlook despite external challenges [4] - It discusses the impact of tariffs on domestic prices and the potential for a rebound in exports as tariff pressures ease [5] Group 2 - The analysis of the U.S. CPI inflation data reveals that internal inflationary pressures are moderating, which may influence future Federal Reserve decisions [4] - The U.S. unemployment rate is facing upward pressure, indicating potential challenges in the labor market [4] - The report suggests that the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields presents opportunities for strategic allocation in fixed income products [4][5]

Economic Overview - The US economy is maintaining a steady expansion, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations converging to two times (approximately 50 basis points), and the terminal rate expectation raised to 3.5% [2] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicts a sharp increase in the annualized growth rate of US real GDP to 4.6% in Q2, driven by a reversal in "import grabbing," with personal consumption (PCE) growth reaching 4.0% [2] - Private investment (excluding inventory) growth is at 4.4%, primarily supported by equipment (8.8%) and intellectual property (5.5%) contributions [2] - The job market remains robust, with unemployment levels stable, and initial jobless claims rising to 240,000, aligning with seasonal levels [2] Inflation and Fiscal Policy - Market concerns about inflation are easing, with the Truflation daily inflation index dropping to 1.84%, down 26 basis points from previous highs [3] - Despite ongoing rhetoric about deficit reduction, the fiscal deficit continues to expand, with weekly fiscal deficit reaching $127.5 billion, exceeding seasonal levels [3] - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to make significant policy adjustments, with expectations of a "hawkish rate cut" that emphasizes returning rates to neutral levels without indicating future policy trends [3] Overseas Strategy - Market risk appetite improved due to the suspension of Trump’s tariffs, leading to rebounds in US Treasury yields and the dollar, while gold prices fell [4] - The US stock market saw gains influenced by tariff policy changes, with corporate earnings showing resilience against economic fluctuations [4] - However, deep-rooted trade tensions remain unresolved, limiting upward potential for US stock valuations [4] Chinese Economic Insights - In April, industrial profits for large-scale industrial enterprises grew by 3.0% year-on-year, with industrial added value increasing by 6.1% [8] - The manufacturing sector shows signs of recovery, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.5% in May, indicating improved production and new orders [9] - Real estate transactions are entering a low season, with new home sales declining by 4.1% in May, although the decline is narrowing compared to April [9] External Demand and Trade - "Export grabbing" remains active but is losing momentum, with container shipping rates showing mixed trends across different routes [10] - The US Treasury Secretary indicated that trade negotiations between China and the US are temporarily stalled, suggesting ongoing trade tensions may impact China's foreign trade [11] Chinese Strategy: Stock and Bond Market - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with short-term funding and sentiment driving volatility [12] - The A-share market showed resilience despite a slight decline, with limited catalysts for significant movement in the near term [12] - In the context of risk appetite, funds are shifting towards stable dividend sectors, while consumer sectors are relatively weaker [13]

大类资产配置建议表 经济："美强欧弱"的回归 美国经济延续韧性，欧日经济转向逆风。 美国方面，市场"衰退之虞"基本消散，美国经济展现了依然强劲的 内生动能。美联储于5月议息会议继续强调"反应型"政策立场，将密切关注关税对通胀的影响；欧洲方面，经 济依然疲弱，通胀持续软化，欧央行大概率继续降息。日本方面，尽管经济已在显著减速，但通胀水平仍能支 持日央行继续加息，存在"滞胀"风险。 （一）美国经济：稳步扩张，担忧暂缓 美国经济保持稳步扩张态势，市场对衰退的担忧显著缓解。 美国经济保持稳步扩张状态。 亚特兰大联储GDPNOW模型二季度年化增速预测值达到2.2%，实现转正，很大 程度来自"抢进口"退潮导致的贸易逆差收敛。随着特朗普新政冲击的退坡，美国经济展现了依然强劲的内生动 能，"衰退之虞"或再度被击退。 | | 大类资产 | 月度趋势 | | | 配置建议(未来6个月) | | | 配置变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 高配 | 中高配 | 标配 | 中低配 | 低配 | | | | 美元 | 偏弱震荡 | | ...

Group 1: Overseas Economy - The US economy is maintaining a steady expansion, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations converging to two times (approximately 50 basis points) for the year [2][3] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicts a 2.4% annualized growth rate for US real GDP in Q2, driven by personal consumption (PCE) growth of 3.6% and private investment growth of 2.7%, while real estate and construction are contracting due to high interest rates [2] - The job market remains robust, with initial jobless claims falling to 227,000, indicating a low unemployment level [2] - Inflation effects from tariffs are manageable, with a 2% increase in import prices noted, and inflation is expected to stabilize around 3% in the second half of the year [2] - The "Beautiful Act" is progressing well, but the US fiscal deficit is significantly high, reaching $91.9 billion weekly, indicating ongoing fiscal challenges [2] Group 2: Overseas Strategy - Global market concerns have risen due to US debt rating downgrades and trade tensions, leading to increased US bond yields and a weaker dollar [4] - The S&P 500 index saw a 13% year-on-year EPS growth in Q1, exceeding market expectations, indicating resilience in US corporate earnings despite macroeconomic weaknesses [4] - The ongoing easing of inflation pressures provides the Federal Reserve with more policy maneuvering space, suggesting a potential new upward trend for US stocks [4] - Short-term US bond yields may face upward pressure, while a strategy focusing on medium to short-duration bonds is recommended [6] - The Chinese yuan may experience short-term pressure due to seasonal currency purchase demands, but overall stability is expected [6] Group 3: Chinese Economy - Domestic demand shows stability in car purchases, while real estate transactions are cooling, with new home sales in major cities declining by 5.7% year-on-year [7] - Export activities are accelerating as US importers rush to procure goods before tariff exemptions expire, with a 21.5% increase in container throughput at the Port of Los Angeles [7] - Fiscal revenue improved in April, with tax revenue growing by 1.9% year-on-year, marking the first positive growth this year [8] - Land transfer income also saw a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, indicating a recovery in the real estate market, although pressures remain [8] Group 4: Chinese Strategy - The bond market is experiencing slight adjustments, with a recommendation to focus on medium to short-duration bonds due to better risk-return profiles [11] - The A-share market is facing pressure from declining M1 and medium to long-term loan growth, indicating potential volatility [12] - The Hong Kong stock market is showing similar trends to the A-share market, with a focus on high-quality companies and stable dividend-paying stocks [12]

一、美债利率上行的原因 美东时间5月21日，美债利率全线上升，10年期美债利率突破4.6%，30年期美债利率突破5.0%，我们对此点评 如下： 第一，20年期美债拍卖结果较差，这是利率上行的导火索。 20年期美债最终得标利率为5.05%，相较4月高出 约20BP，也是自2023年11月以来首次突破5.0%整数大关，投标倍数同样出现了明显下滑。 第四，美国经济硬数据稳健，市场对通胀存在担忧，叠加美联储在降息问题上维持定力，基本面和货币政策对 利率偏空。 二、美债策略展望：短期波动不改震荡趋势，配置中短久期美债，回避长债 短期来看，上述利空因素可能将继续发酵，利率存在进一步冲高的风险，但美国评级下调等因素偏短期，影响 预计难以持久，同时美国经济在关税和通胀背景下仍有压力，认为美债利率不具备持续大幅上行的条件，维持 利率宽幅震荡的观点不变。考虑到美债票息收益可观，仍值得配置，建议维持中短久期美债的配置，以票息策 略为主，长久期债券建议回避，若10Y国债利率上升至4.7%-5%区间，可能是一个较好的配置窗口。 -END- 本期作者 陈峤 资本市场研究员 chenqiao426 @cmbch ina .com 刘东亮 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance and outlook of fixed income products and the bond market, highlighting the impact of macroeconomic factors and policy changes on investment strategies and opportunities [1][34]. Summary by Sections Fixed Income Products - Recent performance of fixed income products shows that rights-embedded bond funds outperformed short-term bond funds and high-grade interbank certificates of deposit index funds in the past month, with returns of 0.62%, 0.19%, and 0.18% respectively [3][8]. - Cash management products yielded a return of 0.11%, indicating a stable but declining trend in cash product yields, which may approach 1% in the long term [1][38]. Bond Market Review - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with short-term rates stabilizing and long-term rates rising. The 10-year government bond yield increased to 1.68%, while the 1-year government bond yield rose to 1.45% [10][16]. - The easing of US-China tariffs has improved market risk appetite, leading to a slight market correction [10][30]. Market Outlook - Short-term expectations indicate a weak fluctuation in the bond market, with a potential for small adjustments. However, the long-term downtrend in interest rates remains intact, suggesting opportunities for investors to capitalize on market corrections [29][36]. - The 1-year AAA interbank certificate of deposit rate is expected to stabilize between 1.6% and 1.8% [29][30]. Investment Strategies - For investors focused on liquidity management, maintaining cash products and considering low-volatility financial products or short-term bond funds is recommended [38]. - For conservative investors, holding pure bond products and gradually increasing duration exposure is advisable, especially as the 10-year government bond yield approaches 1.7%-1.8% [39]. - For more aggressive investors, fixed income plus products that include convertible bonds and equity assets may present opportunities, with a focus on defensive convertible bond products over aggressive ones [40]. Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has issued a plan to promote high-quality development in the public fund industry, emphasizing a shift from scale to return, and from short-term to long-term investment strategies [34].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the stable growth of China's economy in April, highlighting the resilience of external demand and the transition of new and old growth drivers, despite challenges such as declining real estate investment and low inflation pressures [6][21]. Supply Side: Stable Growth, Slowing Momentum - In April, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 6.1% year-on-year, exceeding the market expectation of 5.2%, but down 1.6 percentage points from March [7] - The service production index grew by 6.0% year-on-year, slightly down from March [7] - High-tech industries maintained robust growth, with production increasing by 10.0%, while equipment manufacturing grew by 9.8% [7] Fixed Asset Investment: Slowing Growth, Real Estate Drag - Fixed asset investment grew by 4% year-to-date, slightly down from the previous value [10] - Infrastructure investment increased by 10.9%, while real estate investment saw a decline of 10.3%, worsening by 0.5 percentage points from the previous value [10][11] - Manufacturing investment growth slowed to 8.2%, influenced by tariff impacts and reduced willingness to invest among enterprises [16] Consumption: High Levels with Notable Highlights - Retail sales growth in April was 5.1%, slightly below the market expectation of 5.5% [19] - Significant growth was observed in categories such as communication equipment and home appliances, with increases of 20-30% [19] - The consumption of gold and jewelry surged by 25.3%, driven by high gold prices [19] Outlook: Consolidating Foundations, Maintaining Stability - The article anticipates that tariff negotiations will yield positive outcomes, improving the economic environment and supporting the goal of achieving a 5% growth rate [21] - The article suggests that while external demand remains stable, inflation may continue to be low, and the real estate market may remain weak [21]

海外策略：境外市场风险偏好回暖 美国经济稳步扩张，失业率保持低位，通胀继续软化但仍然面对关税压力，市场对美联储降息的预期持续收 敛。 继Q1私人部门（剔除库存、政府购买、净出口）实际GDP环比年化增速录得3%之后，亚特兰大联储GDPNOW 模型指向Q2美国经济保持稳步扩张态势，实际GDP环比年化增速达到2.5%；4月失业率保持在4.2%，连续一年 于4.0-4.2%区间低位震荡，最新周频首次申领失业金人数稳定在22.9万，同样未见上行趋势；4月美国CPI通胀 超预期回落至2.3%，但未来仍然面临关税压力，下半年读数可能稳定在3%附近。 最新形势指向"胀"的压力仍然远大于"滞"，市场对美联储降息的预期持续收敛，从此前的峰值5次（约125bp） 降至当前的2次（约50bp），与我们预期相符，我们基本认可当前市场对美联储降息的判断。 本周由于中美贸易谈判取得积极成果，境外市场风险偏好回暖，美债利率小幅反弹，美元先涨后跌，人民币升 值，黄金快速回落。 美股方面，上周美股上涨，主要受到中美贸易紧张局势缓解以及通胀数据表现温和的积极影响。中美经贸会谈 取得积极成果，将对美股市场产生显著的正面推动作用，将大幅缓解市场此前对 ...

作者：招商银行研究院 纽约分行 不考虑关税影响的内生通胀比预期更稳定，"劳工荒""住房荒""鸡蛋荒"均在持续缓解，车辆保险通胀亦逐渐回 归合理区间。叠加关税形势已在缓和，即将到来的关税通胀可能不会推升长期通胀预期，并被美联储定性 为"暂时性通胀"。与此同时，随着空缺职位的消耗，美国失业率或将开启新一轮上行，为美联储打开新一轮降 息的大门。 我们认为长端美债已经进入"击球区"，美元亦已再度具备做空价值。 一、宏观：通胀读数或已触及年内低点 4月美国CPI通胀数据超预期回落，创本轮大通胀以来新低。 图1：美国通胀读数创大通胀以来新低 资 料 来 源 ： M A C R O B O N D 、 招 商 银 行 研 究 院 一是就业市场降温，"劳工荒"缓解，薪资通胀持续弱化。 3月美国职位空缺率降至4.3%，为本轮"劳工荒"以来 最低值，2-4月服务业时薪环比增速连续3个月稳定在0.2%，驱动4月服务业时薪同比增速回落至3.6%，非房服 务通胀回落至3.1%。 4月美国CPI通胀数据低于市场预期。CPI同比增速降速至2.3%（市场预期2.4%）；环比增长0.2%（市场预期 0.3%）；核心CPI同比增速维持在2.8% ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S.-China trade negotiations have led to significant reductions in bilateral tariffs, which is expected to positively impact both economies and financial markets [2][6][10]. Group 1: Bilateral Tariffs - The U.S. has reduced additional tariffs on Chinese goods to 10% and plans to suspend 24% of tariffs for 90 days after the "liberation day," resulting in an average tariff reduction from 125% to 10% [2]. - China will cancel 91% of its retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, retaining only 10% and suspending 24% of its countermeasures for 90 days [2][7]. - The average U.S. tariff on Chinese goods is expected to decrease from 42.7% to 22.7% as cooperation on the fentanyl issue progresses [2][7]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The reduction in tariffs is projected to significantly lessen the negative impact on U.S.-China trade, with an estimated 16% decline in China's exports to the U.S. from May to December 2025 [8]. - The overall export growth for China to the U.S. is expected to decline by 11.7% for the year, with potential losses in export value ranging from $200 billion to $300 billion [8]. - The easing of tariffs is anticipated to reduce the adverse effects on domestic demand, manufacturing investment, and employment, although certain sectors heavily reliant on exports to the U.S. may still face challenges [8][9]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The adjustment in tariff policies has improved market sentiment, leading to a recovery in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with expectations of a more stable market environment [10]. - The bond market has reacted to the positive news, with long-term interest rates rising, while short-term rates remain strong, indicating a potential opportunity for bond market positioning [11]. - U.S. stock markets are likely to experience a positive trend due to reduced trade tensions, although concerns over lingering tariff risks and high interest rates may limit upward movement [12]. Group 4: Currency and Commodity Outlook - The decline in tariffs is expected to bolster market risk appetite, leading to a potential appreciation of the RMB in the short term, while the USD may face mixed pressures depending on future tariff developments [13]. - Gold prices may experience short-term volatility due to increased risk appetite, but long-term uncertainties surrounding U.S. economic conditions and monetary policy could support a rebound in gold prices [13].