Core Insights - The article discusses the evolving landscape of trade conflicts, particularly focusing on tariffs and their implications for monetary policy and economic stability [5][12][29] Group 1: Hot Topics - Financial pressure may be a key contradiction leading to the Federal Reserve's potential shift towards a dovish stance, particularly in the context of tariff impacts [5][35] - The article explores the "endgame" of trade conflicts, suggesting that future negotiations may involve splitting issues to facilitate partial agreements [29][37] - The article highlights the "irreplaceability" of Chinese manufacturing, identifying nine industries with strong dependencies that are difficult to replace [10][12] Group 2: Policy Analysis - The article outlines recent monetary policy adjustments, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to inject approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market [26] - It discusses the implications of April's inflation data, noting that while tariffs have impacted the Producer Price Index (PPI), improved consumer demand has supported the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) [17][18] - The article emphasizes the need for timely and adaptive policies in response to ongoing trade negotiations and economic conditions [12][28] Group 3: Trade Agreements - The recent economic prosperity agreement between the US and UK is analyzed, with a focus on the incremental information it provides regarding future trade negotiations [7][29] - The article suggests that the core interests in trade conflicts may not be easily compromised, indicating a complex negotiation landscape ahead [29][37] - It also discusses the potential for trade negotiations to evolve into more flexible frameworks, allowing for targeted agreements rather than comprehensive solutions [29][37]

Policy Tracking - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the introduction of a comprehensive financial policy aimed at stabilizing the stock market, real estate market, and enhancing financial support for private and technology-driven enterprises [1][2]. 1. Financial Policy Measures - On May 7, a press conference was held to introduce a "package of financial policies" to support market stability and expectations, detailing three major types of monetary policy measures and ten specific initiatives [1]. - The central bank's measures include a comprehensive reduction in reserve requirements and interest rate cuts on structural monetary policy tools, aimed at alleviating the financial burden on commercial banks [1]. 2. Support for Private Enterprises - The "Private Economy Promotion Law" was introduced, marking the first time the legal status of private enterprises is explicitly defined, emphasizing the importance of promoting sustainable and high-quality development of the private economy [2][4]. - The law aims to create a stable, fair, transparent, and predictable environment for the development of the private economy, ensuring equal treatment and protection for private enterprises [4]. 3. Financial Support for Small and Micro Enterprises - The National Financial Supervision Administration issued a notice outlining goals for financial services for small and micro enterprises by 2025, focusing on maintaining credit supply, improving service quality, and reducing financing costs [9][10]. - The notice emphasizes the need for banks to provide sufficient credit support and to ensure that the growth rate of loans to small and micro enterprises is not lower than that of overall loans [9]. 4. Regional Financial Cooperation - During the 28th ASEAN Plus Three Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting, discussions focused on enhancing regional financial cooperation to address global economic uncertainties [5][6]. - China expressed its commitment to deepening financial cooperation within the region, emphasizing the importance of multilateralism and free trade [6][7]. 5. Macroeconomic Policy - The Chinese government plans to adopt more proactive macroeconomic policies to achieve a growth target of around 5% by 2025, with a focus on building a unified domestic market and expanding high-level openness [7][8]. - The government aims to share development opportunities with the Asia-Pacific region while addressing global challenges collaboratively [8].

Core Viewpoints - The sudden increase in M2 growth in April is primarily due to a rapid recovery of non-bank deposits, which is linked to effective macro policies responding to tariff shocks, leading to accelerated capital market recovery [3][8][46] - The credit landscape in April shows a pattern of "loan decline and bond financing recovery," with short-term loans decreasing due to previous surges, while medium to long-term loans saw a smaller increase, influenced by debt resolution progress and tariff shock impacting corporate expectations [12][20][46] Financial Data Summary - In April, the total new credit was 280 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 450 billion, mainly due to the corporate sector [26][49] - The total social financing (社融) increased by 1,159.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1,224.9 billion, with corporate bond financing showing signs of recovery [32][49] - M2 increased by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year to 8.0%, while M1 decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 1.5% [39][50] Resident and Corporate Credit Trends - Resident credit remained subdued, with a cautious debt attitude due to employment market pressures and tariff disturbances, reflected in the BCI enterprise hiring index remaining below 50 for two consecutive months [15][47] - The structure of social financing in April showed a dominance of government bonds and improvement in corporate bonds, with government bonds increasing by 10,666 billion year-on-year [20][48] Future Outlook - The combination of policy measures and easing external shocks is expected to stabilize microeconomic expectations, with the central bank announcing ten specific measures to support capital markets, real estate, and the private economy [25][48] - The recent easing of US-China trade tensions is anticipated to further improve microeconomic expectations and stabilize corporate credit demand [25][48]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the new signals released during the policy window period in late April, emphasizing the need for flexible and timely incremental policies in response to external uncertainties and internal economic conditions [2][11][70]. Group 1: New Signals from the Policy Window - The April Politburo meeting highlighted the importance of stabilizing employment, economy, market, and expectations, while maintaining vigilance against external risks, marking the first use of the term "international economic and trade struggle" [3][11][70]. - The meeting emphasized the need for a flexible and unconventional policy toolbox, advocating for timely incremental reserve policies based on changing circumstances [3][11][70]. Group 2: Employment and Market Stability Policies - The April 28 press conference focused on stabilizing employment, detailing three key areas: promoting consumption through subsidies, expanding employment opportunities for specific groups, and enhancing support for the private economy [4][12][76]. - The May 7 press conference centered on market stability, outlining measures to stabilize the stock market, real estate market, and enhance financial support for technological innovation [4][13][76]. Group 3: Incremental Policy Adjustments - The current 90-day tariff "grace period" serves as a crucial window for implementing existing policies and strengthening incremental policy reserves, with strong export performance driven by "rush exports" [5][16][77]. - A series of flexible financial policies have been introduced, including comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cuts and structural monetary policy tool interest rate reductions to lower borrowing costs [5][18][77]. Group 4: Fiscal Policy and Funding Focus - Fiscal policy is under scrutiny regarding the issuance and utilization of existing debt quotas, with a notable decline in fiscal revenue in the first quarter, necessitating close attention to government bond issuance and incremental policy sustainability [6][21][78]. - The second quarter is expected to see the continued rollout of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and stabilizing employment, with a focus on the pace of incremental funding [6][28][78]. Group 5: Potential Investment Directions - If tariff negotiations progress smoothly, future policy focus may shift towards long-term institutional reforms and structural policy support, with an emphasis on improving income distribution and social security mechanisms [9][46][79]. - Investment in new infrastructure to support emerging industries is anticipated to become a new growth point, alongside the acceleration of traditional infrastructure projects [9][57][80].

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the current easing of US-China tariff tensions, drawing parallels to the previous tariff phase under the Trump administration, highlighting the "irreplaceability" of Chinese manufacturing as a key theme [2][76]. Group 1: Underestimated Tariff Exemption Mechanism - The tariff exemption mechanism operates independently and is primarily initiated by US importers, not reliant on US-China negotiations [3][10]. - During the first tariff phase, the highest percentage of exempted goods reached 60%, with a total of 50 rounds of exemptions since 2018, amounting to a maximum of $118.3 billion [3][13]. - The current round of exemptions is implemented more rapidly than the previous phase, with the exemption list accounting for 26.5% of total US imports from China in 2024, including significant categories like mobile phones (40.3%) and computers (35.3%) [3][15]. Group 2: Reasons for Tariff Exemptions - Exempted products generally have a high dependency on Chinese imports, with significant exemption rates for items like rubber and plastics (62.9%) and furniture (62.2%) [4][20]. - Tariffs have led to increased industry costs, with a clear correlation between the proportion of goods subject to tariffs and the rise in Producer Price Index (PPI) for affected industries [4][25]. - The exemptions also aim to alleviate supply chain mismatches in the US, particularly in industries where domestic competitiveness has declined [5][30]. Group 3: Assessing the "Irreplaceability" of Chinese Manufacturing - Five perspectives are used to evaluate the "irreplaceability" of Chinese manufacturing, focusing on industries that are difficult to decouple from Chinese supply chains, such as machinery and electrical equipment [6][80]. - Industries with high import price increases and low reductions in dependency on Chinese goods, like rubber and plastics, indicate a persistent reliance on Chinese manufacturing [7][45]. - High price premiums for Chinese products in the US market, such as electric vehicles and consumer electronics, demonstrate their strong market competitiveness despite tariff pressures [8][51]. Group 4: Challenges in Indirect Decoupling - Certain industries, such as consumer electronics and textiles, face limited competition from alternative suppliers, making it difficult for the US to indirectly decouple from China [8][57]. - The overlap in product categories between US imports from China and other countries, such as Mexico and Vietnam, highlights the challenges in finding suitable replacements for Chinese goods [8][62].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the stable operation of industrial production, marginal improvement in infrastructure construction, and a significant increase in human mobility and travel intensity, indicating a mixed economic recovery trend. Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains stable, with a slight year-on-year decrease in blast furnace operating rates by 0.6 percentage points to 3.1% [2][5] - The chemical sector shows marginal improvement, with soda ash, PTA, and polyester filament operating rates increasing by 1.5, 1.2, and 1.6 percentage points to 1.3%, 1.2%, and 2.9% respectively [2][13] - However, the automotive sector experiences a significant decline, with semi-steel tire operating rates dropping by 11.3 percentage points to 17.9% [2][13] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry shows mixed performance, with national grinding operating rates and cement shipment rates declining by 14% to 5% and 3.8% to 6.3% respectively [2][16] - Asphalt operating rates, however, have increased year-on-year by 7% to 2% [2][21] Group 3: Demand Trends - There is a notable recovery in housing transactions, with average daily transaction area in 30 major cities increasing by 36.2% year-on-year to 26.8% [2][29] - Port cargo throughput has significantly improved, rising by 10.4% year-on-year to 4.2%, while container throughput increased by 2.5% to 2.9% [2][32] - Human mobility has surged, with the migration index increasing by 50.5% year-on-year to 51.4% [2][34] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices have generally declined, with vegetable, pork, and egg prices falling by 2.2%, 2.3%, and 0.1% respectively [2][46] - The South China industrial product price index decreased by 0.7%, with energy and chemical prices down by 0.9% and metal prices down by 0.4% [2][49]

二、4月国内市场的焦点？关税冲击下"抢出口"特征明显，"增量政策"序幕拉开 关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 摘要 4月以来，特朗普超预期的关税政策，一石激起千层浪；5月初，美英贸易协议达成、国内增量政策出 台，积极的变化已在显现。后续国内外关注的焦点、政策的可能演绎？供参考。 一、4月海外市场的主线？特朗普关税政策超预期，海外衰退担忧明显升温 4月2日，特朗普宣布的"对等关税"成为了4月海外市场的核心焦点。 对等关税落地后，美国平均关税税 率升至27%，关税抬升速度及水平超过1930年代水平。随后，部分经济体予以反制，特朗普也在4月9日 宣布暂停对等关税90天，旨在创造谈判窗口、缓和通胀压力。 一方面，关税政策显著加剧了全球的衰退风险，海外市场衰退交易特征明显。 美国的关税政策一方面导 致经济、贸易不确定性快速飙升，冲击企业的经营活动；另一方面也导致通胀预期大幅升温，压制消费 者信心。这一背景下，海外衰退担忧升温，风险资产普跌、避险资产普涨。 另一方面，关税政策一度引发资金flight to non-US，导致美国出现了罕见的"股债汇三杀"。 关税冲击加 剧了市场对美债安全性的质疑，资金快速从美债市场向欧洲等 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent US-UK trade agreement, termed the "Economic Prosperity Agreement," reflects a shift in US trade negotiation strategies, prioritizing political gains and maintaining tariffs as a central goal [2][17][59] - The agreement allows the US to retain a 10% baseline tariff on UK goods while reducing tariffs on automobiles and steel/aluminum imports from the UK [2][59] - The UK has agreed to expand agricultural imports from the US, including a quota for 1.3 million tons of beef and a commitment to purchase $10 billion worth of Boeing aircraft [2][59] Group 2 - The US is currently engaged in trade negotiations with approximately 17 economies, including India, Japan, and Vietnam, with a focus on achieving quick agreements with smaller economies to bolster political support for the Trump administration [4][61] - Key conflicts in negotiations with the EU center around digital services taxes and automotive import barriers, with the EU maintaining a significant trade surplus with the US [4][26][61] - The US-Japan negotiations face challenges primarily in the automotive and agricultural sectors, with the US seeking to increase military funding contributions from Japan while also pushing for reduced tariffs on US agricultural products [4][32][61] Group 3 - Future trade conflicts may evolve through a strategy of splitting issues and pursuing partial agreements, particularly with smaller economies that have lower trade imbalance levels with the US [5][39][62] - The likelihood of reaching comprehensive agreements with major economies in the short term is low, suggesting a phased approach to negotiations may be more realistic [5][62] - Historical precedents indicate that US trade conflicts often end in political backlash or through WTO rulings, highlighting the complexities of achieving lasting trade agreements [5][51][62]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of tariffs on inflation and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, highlighting a divergence in market expectations regarding rate cuts in 2025 due to financial pressures and the risk of stagflation [1][5]. Group 1: Financial Pressure as a Key Factor - In a stagflation environment, the Federal Reserve faces challenges in balancing its dual mandate, with financial pressure emerging as a primary concern [2][48]. - The economic effects of tariffs are contributing to stagflation, as indicated by manufacturing PMI and short-term inflation expectations, suggesting that stagflation risks are increasing [2][48]. - The Federal Reserve's recent stance indicates a preference for a reactive approach rather than a preemptive one, focusing on the economic impact of tariffs and uncertainty in the economic outlook [7][48]. Group 2: Impact of Financial Pressure on Decision-Making - Sustained financial pressure may lead the Federal Reserve to consider policy adjustments, as rising financial pressure often signals economic downturn expectations [3][24]. - Historical instances show that rising financial pressure has been a significant condition for the Federal Reserve to adopt a dovish stance, such as during the 2015-2016 period and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic [3][28]. - The article emphasizes that financial conditions, including credit, valuation, and liquidity, are critical in assessing the overall financial pressure faced by the economy [24][25]. Group 3: Expectations for Rate Cuts in 2025 - The article anticipates that the Federal Reserve may initiate rate cuts in the third quarter of 2025, as the economic narrative shifts from stagflation to recession [4][35]. - The upcoming months will see market focus on the balance between inflation and economic slowdown, with expectations that if inflationary pressures ease while economic downturns persist, the Federal Reserve's primary concerns will shift accordingly [4][35]. - The probability of rate cuts may decrease if financial markets remain stable, but overall financial pressures are expected to trend upward, paving the way for potential rate cuts later in the year [4][35].

Group 1 - The article discusses the divergence in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in the context of potential stagflation risks due to tariffs [1][43] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in May emphasized a "wait-and-see" approach, indicating that the economic outlook remains uncertain with rising risks of higher unemployment and inflation [2][31] - The article highlights the recent trade agreement between the US and the UK, where the US retains a 10% tariff on UK imports while reducing tariffs on certain automotive products [25][29] Group 2 - The performance of major overseas assets showed mixed results, with a notable rebound in oil prices, as WTI crude oil increased by 4.7% to $61.0 per barrel [19][20] - The article notes that the 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 4 basis points to 4.37%, reflecting a general upward trend in developed market bond yields [8][12] - Emerging market bond yields exhibited a mixed trend, with India's 10-year yield rising by 13 basis points to 6.48%, while Brazil's yield fell by 36 basis points to 13.70% [9][12] Group 3 - The article reports that US initial jobless claims were lower than market expectations, with 228,000 claims filed, indicating a robust labor market that supports the Fed's cautious stance [37] - The article mentions that Germany's industrial production in March exceeded market expectations, rising by 3% month-on-month, which may reflect increased exports to the US [35][36]