4 . 2 7 - 5 . 9 周度研究成果 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 深度专题 1、 深度专题 | 提振消费的"关键"？ 热点思考 高频跟踪 电话会议 1、"周见"系列会议第29期 《聚焦"政治局会议"》 《美债，风险"解除"了吗？——关税"压力测试"系列之四》 4、"洞见"系列会议第59期 《美国经济：滞涨困境、金融脆弱性与美联储对策——关税"压力测试"系列之五》 目录 1、 热点思考 | 美债，风险"解除"了吗？——关税"压力测试"系列之四 2、 热点思考 | 美国经济：滞胀困境、金融脆弱性与美联储对策——关税"压力测试"系列之五 3、 3分钟看清五一全球要闻 1、 海外高频 | 海外风险资产集体修复，黄金新高后获利回吐 2、 政策高频 | 加快建成具有全球影响力的科技创新高地 3、 利润正增能否延续？——工业企业效益数据点评（25.03） 4、 打好稳就业"组合拳"——稳就业稳经济新闻发布会学习理解 5、 4月PMI：内外开始分化 6、 "增量政策"序幕拉开——稳市场稳预期新闻发布会学习理解 7、 Top Charts | "五一"假期消费图鉴 8、 Top Charts ...

事件： 5 月 10 日，国家统计局公布 4 月通胀数据， CPI 同比 -0.1% 、前值 -0.1% 、预期 -0.2% 、环比 0.1% ； PPI 同比 -2.7% 、前值 -2.5% 、预期 -2.8% 、环比 -0.4%。 核心观点：关税对PPI冲击较大，但消费需求改善对核心CPI形成较大支撑。 国际油价下行，加之钢、煤等需求较弱， 4 月大宗商品价格回落对 PPI 构成较大拖累。 4 月 PPI 环比 -0.4% 。其中国际油价下行令国内油价持续回落，石油开采 (-3.1%) 、石油加工 PPI(-2.6%) 环比均为负， 测算油价拖累 PPI 环比 -0.1% 。同时，地产景气回落，煤炭供应充足且进入传统淡季，钢、煤价格也有 回落，相应黑色压延、煤炭开采 PPI 环比分别 -1% 、 -3.3% ，测算钢、煤价拖累 PPI 环比 -0.3% 。而铜 价贡献为正，测算铜价支撑 PPI 环比 0.1% 。 中下游等行业价格回落也约束 PPI 回升，既反映关税冲击的影响，也与国内中下游产能利用率偏低有 关。 中下游产能利润率偏低仍在对相应行业 PPI 构成拖累，尤其是美国关税加码影响下，部分出口行业 ...

摘要 事件： 5月09日，央行发布2025年一季度货币政策执行报告（以下简称《报告》）。 经济形势分析：当前外部冲击影响加大，我国经济持续回升向好的基础还需要进一步稳固。 央行对外部环境关注度显著提高，《报告》指出"当前外部冲击影响加大，世界经济增长动能不足，贸易 保护主义抬头，地缘冲突持续存在"。 2024年四季度报告对应表述是"当前外部环境变化带来的不利影响 加深"。两次相比较，本次更加突出了外部环境的不利影响，显示出央行密切关注美国单边贸易保护主义 对我国经济的扰动。 央行肯定一季度经济表现，并强调要"要坚定发展信心，以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境变化的不确 定性"。 2024年四季度报告认为"国内需求不足、风险隐患仍然较多等困难挑战也还存在"，而本次报告则 认为"我国经济持续回升向好的基础还需要进一步稳固"。针对下一阶段，央行强调我国具备诸多优势条 件，经济长期向好的基本趋势没有改变。 政策基调：灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏，降低银行负债成本。 总基调方面，《报告》提出"灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏"，后续货币政策或更重视执行过程中的动 态响应。 《报告》将上季度报告的"择机调整优化"，修改为"灵活 ...

Core Viewpoint - The leading indicators suggest that "export rush" may continue into May, with April exports showing a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, significantly influenced by the end of the Spring Festival distortion [2][3][11]. Export Analysis - The decline in April exports is primarily due to the fading impact of the Spring Festival distortion, with a calculated drag of 6.7 percentage points on the export growth rate [3][11]. - The strong performance in April exports is attributed to "export rush," including re-exports through emerging economies and transit through Mexico, with improvements in the data chain from production to shipping [3][19]. - Exports to ASEAN and South Korea saw significant increases, with growth rates of 21.0% and -0.1% respectively, indicating a recovery in trade relationships [3][19]. Resilience in Exports to the U.S. - Exports to the U.S. showed relative resilience, with a decline of only 20.9%, which is significantly less than the 145% tariff increase, indicating the difficulty of replacing Chinese manufacturing [4][30]. - The strong performance in intermediate and capital goods, such as ships and steel, reflects the trend of exporting production materials to emerging countries for processing and subsequent re-export to the U.S. [4][34]. Future Outlook - Leading indicators suggest that the "export rush" effect may persist into May, but uncertainties loom for June exports due to the 90-day tariff suspension on emerging economies and the one-month shipping delay [5][71]. - The processing trade imports, which are a leading indicator for export trends, showed a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, indicating continued export activity in May [5][71]. Regular Tracking - April exports showed a decline in consumer goods, with notable decreases in electronics and textiles, while capital goods like ships saw significant growth [6][42]. - Import growth in April was driven by a recovery in bulk commodity imports, with copper and iron ore showing increases of 22.0% and 8.0% respectively, reflecting a rebound in domestic investment demand [7][73].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of accelerating the establishment of a globally influential technology innovation hub, with a focus on internal economic stability and high-quality development amidst external uncertainties [2][11][12] - The Central Political Bureau meeting highlighted the need for rapid implementation of established policies, with an emphasis on "stabilizing employment" and ensuring policy consistency between fiscal and monetary measures [3][7] - The government is prioritizing employment services, targeting key groups such as college graduates, migrant workers, and vulnerable populations, with specific measures to enhance job creation and support [7][8] Group 2 - The article discusses the promotion of artificial intelligence (AI) development and regulation, emphasizing the need for policy support and talent cultivation in this strategic technology area [4][11] - The People's Bank of China and financial regulatory authorities are working to better serve small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) through improved supply chain financing practices and regulations [15][16] - A market access barrier cleanup initiative has been launched by the National Development and Reform Commission, focusing on eliminating local approval barriers and ensuring fair market access for all enterprises [17][18]

贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 联系人： 贾东旭 报告正文 事件： 5 月 7 日，国新办举行新闻发布会介绍 "一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期" 情况 。 本次发布会的变与不变？三大部门负责人出席，更侧重详细阐释政策落实情况 继"9.24"金融政策发布会后，央行、金融监管总局、证监会负责人再度联合召开新闻发布会，详解本轮一 揽子金融政策支持进展。 4月中央政治局会议作出部署后，多部门已召开新闻发布会解读落实举措。 5月7 日，央行、金融监管总局、证监会负责人进一步详解稳市场强预期的一揽子金融政策。与"9.24"发布会相 似，本次发布会仍为三大金融相关部门负责人共同出席；不同在于，此次发布会紧跟4月中央政治局会议， 侧重对政策执行细则的深度解读。 本次发布会，央行重点介绍推出三大类型货币政策措施、十项具体举措。 三大类型包含，数量型政策，通 过降准等措施，加大中长期流动性供给；价格型政策，下调政策利率，降低结构性货币政策工具利率，也 就是中央银行向商业银行提供再贷款的利率，同时调降公积金贷款利率；结构型政策，完善现有结构性货 币政策工具，并创设新的政策工具，支持科技创新、扩大消费、普惠金融等领域。 ...

贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 联系人： 贾东旭 报告正文 事件： 5 月 7 日，国新办举行新闻发布会介绍 "一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期" 情况 。 本次发布会的变与不变？三大部门负责人出席，更侧重详细阐释政策落实情况 继"9.24"金融政策发布会后，央行、金融监管总局、证监会负责人再度联合召开新闻发布会，详解本轮一 揽子金融政策支持进展。 4月中央政治局会议作出部署后，多部门已召开新闻发布会解读落实举措。 5月7 日，央行、金融监管总局、证监会负责人进一步详解稳市场强预期的一揽子金融政策。与"9.24"发布会相 似，本次发布会仍为三大金融相关部门负责人共同出席；不同在于，此次发布会紧跟4月中央政治局会议， 侧重对政策执行细则的深度解读。 本次发布会，央行重点介绍推出三大类型货币政策措施、十项具体举措。 三大类型包含，数量型政策，通 过降准等措施，加大中长期流动性供给；价格型政策，下调政策利率，降低结构性货币政策工具利率，也 就是中央银行向商业银行提供再贷款的利率，同时调降公积金贷款利率；结构型政策，完善现有结构性货 币政策工具，并创设新的政策工具，支持科技创新、扩大消费、普惠金融等领域。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of consumption promotion policies in the context of economic growth pressures and external demand constraints, highlighting the need for effective measures to stimulate domestic consumption and improve residents' income and spending capacity [2][3][32]. Group 1: Historical Review of Consumption Promotion Policies - China's consumption promotion policies can be categorized into direct fiscal subsidies (e.g., rural subsidies, trade-in subsidies, consumption vouchers) and indirect support policies (e.g., tax exemptions) [2][11]. - The first round of rural subsidies (2009-2012) had significant effects, with a total of 765 billion yuan invested, leading to sales of 6,597.6 billion yuan, achieving a fiscal multiplier of 8.6 [24][27]. - Local governments primarily use consumption vouchers to stimulate various sectors, including tourism and dining, with funding sources from local finances and businesses [19][21]. Group 2: Factors Restricting Consumption - Short-term constraints on consumption recovery include slow income recovery and supply-side limitations, with property and transfer income only recovering to about 75% of pre-pandemic levels [4][40]. - Structural unemployment and damaged household balance sheets further limit consumption, with housing loans constituting 53.8% of total loans, making residents sensitive to housing price fluctuations [48][50]. - Long-term demographic changes, such as aging populations and mismatched supply and demand in services, pose additional challenges to consumption growth [5][53]. Group 3: Expectations for Consumption Promotion - Future consumption policies are expected to focus on increasing income and reducing expenses, with an emphasis on improving the social security system and developing the service sector [6][64]. - The government aims to enhance service consumption, with policies potentially expanding to include subsidies for sectors like dining, accommodation, and tourism [66][69]. - Improving income distribution and social security mechanisms is anticipated to play a significant role in boosting consumption in the medium to long term [74][76].

联系人： 陈达飞 摘要 特朗普"对等关税"的幅度和演绎大超市场预期，引发金融市场巨震。关税的经济冲击有多大、后续如何 演绎？美国经济的衰退前景如何、金融市场的流动性的"压力测试"是否会再次上演？ 一、关税冲击的动态路径：从"滞胀"到"衰退" 按照2024年进口商品加权结算，美国所有商品的平均关税税率已经升至27%（考虑豁免后为24%）。 北 京时间4月3日，美国"对等关税"落地，税率水平大超市场预期，叠加后续中美双边关税的升级，平均税 率已经升至27%。其中，特朗普政府对中国加征的关税税率已经升至146.2%，贡献了27%当中的20个百 分点，其他国家合计贡献了7个百分点 。 关税的经济效应表现为"滞胀"。当下，市场的分歧在于滞和胀的强弱比较、动态特征和美联储货币政策 的反应。 动态而言，基于41个国家的跨国比较研究结果显示，关税对"滞"和"胀"的影响量级基本对称、 均在大约4个季度后达到峰值，但早期通胀上行的斜率更陡。定量而言，如果关税导致进口中间品和终端 品成本增加10%，当年CPI通胀将分别上升0.3%和0.5% 。 关税对经济的影响正在逐步显现。如果关税水平保持不变（或有限缓和），美国经济衰退的概率或 ...

Global Macro Overview - During the May Day holiday, overseas risk assets showed signs of recovery, with major stock indices in the US, Asia, and Europe rising significantly. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones increased by 2.9%, 3.4%, and 3.0% respectively [3][8] - Oil prices experienced a substantial decline due to supply shocks, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices falling by 7.5% and 8.3% respectively [3][16] - The US dollar index saw a slight increase of 0.5%, while major currencies like the euro, pound, and yen depreciated against the dollar [14] Overseas Events & Data - The second round of trade negotiations between the US and Japan did not yield significant breakthroughs, although both sides reached agreements on expanding agricultural quotas and simplifying automotive inspections [4][20] - The US economy unexpectedly contracted in Q1 2025, with a GDP growth rate of -0.3% on a quarter-over-quarter basis, primarily due to increased imports and inventory accumulation [29][39] - Japan's central bank maintained its monetary policy stance amid trade uncertainties, downgrading its GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [4][20] Domestic Data & Events - During the May Day holiday, domestic travel remained high, with cross-regional travel volume increasing by 5.7% year-on-year, reflecting a significant rise in public transportation usage [6][7] - Cross-border travel and county tourism saw notable growth, with domestic flights increasing by 3.6% compared to the Spring Festival [6] - The Chinese government has been proactive in promoting tourism consumption through subsidies and enhancing consumer experiences [6] Investment Insights - Warren Buffett expressed optimism about Japanese assets and criticized trade wars during the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, indicating a cautious but positive outlook on long-term investments in Japan [18][19] - The US Treasury's refinancing plan for Q2 2025 maintained the scale of bond auctions, indicating a reliance on short-term debt amid rising deficit pressures [27]