Deep Dive - The article discusses a monitoring framework for assessing the economic impact of tariffs in the U.S., focusing on three main modules: trade, prices, and risks [6]. Hot Topics - The concept of "anti-involution" is introduced, highlighting the government's new approach to address "involution-style" competition, identifying industries potentially caught in this phenomenon [8]. - The article examines the blind spots affecting consumer recovery, noting that while goods consumption is returning to normal, service consumption faces supply-demand challenges [11]. Economic Data Review - The analysis indicates that the previous strong "old forces" in the economy are entering a decline phase, while "new forces" continue to build momentum for recovery [15]. - The fiscal data review suggests that there is still room for acceleration in fiscal policy, with tariffs significantly impacting PPI, but improving consumer demand providing substantial support for core CPI [18]. High-Frequency Tracking - The article reports on the recent U.S. CPI data, which was weaker than market expectations, while retail sales showed stronger performance [20]. - Domestic industrial production remains stable, with improvements in infrastructure projects, although shipping prices are showing divergent trends [24]. Policy Insights - The article outlines recent policy measures aimed at maintaining fair competition in the market and addressing "involution-style" competition [27]. Top Charts - The discussion on the "irreplaceability" of Chinese manufacturing highlights certain phenomena that demonstrate this characteristic [29].

Group 1 - The core issue of service consumption recovery is that it is slower compared to goods consumption, with a significant gap in service consumption tendency compared to historical trends, indicating that income may not be the primary constraint on service recovery [2][8][107] - In 2024, the gap in per capita service consumption compared to historical trends is 2,093 yuan (13.9%), while the gap for goods consumption is only 458 yuan (2.9%) [2][8][107] - The increase in working hours has led to a reduction in leisure time, with daily paid working hours increasing by 2 hours, which negatively impacts service consumption that relies heavily on leisure time [2][19][107] Group 2 - The increase in average weekly working hours for urban residents in 2023 is 48.7 hours, significantly higher than Japan (32.6 hours) and South Korea (36.6 hours), leading to more consumption concentrated during holidays [3][30][108] - The legal minimum number of vacation days in China is 18 days (by 2025), which is considerably lower than Japan (29 days) and South Korea (30 days) [3][30][108] Group 3 - Insufficient effective supply in the service sector is a short-term constraint on consumption recovery, particularly in the life service sector [4][49][109] - The employment share in the service sector has decreased by 3.8% compared to historical trends, indicating an excess supply gap [4][49][109] - The slow recovery in service supply is particularly evident in education, health, and cultural entertainment sectors, with employment shares declining significantly [4][60][109] Group 4 - The lack of entrepreneur confidence is a significant drag on service supply, with high industry costs and increased debt pressure contributing to this issue [6][110][101] - Investment in the life service sector has not kept pace with profit recovery, indicating a cautious investment behavior among entrepreneurs [6][90][110] - The average cash flow ratio for the cultural and entertainment sector is 19.8%, reflecting increased cash flow pressure and limiting supply expansion willingness [6][96][110]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the stable operation of industrial production, marginal improvement in infrastructure construction, and the divergent trends in shipping prices, indicating a mixed economic recovery landscape. Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains stable, with the blast furnace operating rate showing resilience, down by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 2.6% [2][5] - In the chemical sector, except for a significant drop in soda ash production, other areas like PTA and polyester filament have improved, with year-on-year increases of 3.4 percentage points to 4.7% and 1.9 percentage points to 4.8%, respectively [2][17] - The operating rate of automotive semi-steel tires has also improved significantly, up by 15.5 percentage points to -2.4% year-on-year [2][17] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry shows mixed performance, with national grinding operating rates and cement shipment rates significantly below last year's levels, up by 1.5 percentage points to -3.5% and down by 0.6 percentage points to -6.9%, respectively [2][28] - Asphalt operating rates have seen a notable increase, up by 4.8 percentage points to 6.8% year-on-year [2][40] Group 3: Downstream Demand - The transaction volume of commercial housing continues to decline, with the average daily transaction area of new homes down by 45.7% year-on-year to -12% [2][52] - Port cargo throughput and container throughput related to exports have also decreased, down by 15.3% to -6.2% and 7.1% to -0.3% year-on-year, respectively [2][63] - Shipping prices are showing divergent trends, with the price on the West America route continuing to rise, while prices on the Southeast Asia route have significantly dropped [2][93] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are mixed, with vegetable and egg prices declining by 2.2% and 0.6% respectively, while pork prices remain stable and fruit prices have increased by 0.7% [3][105] - The industrial product price index has risen by 2% week-on-week, with the energy and chemical price index up by 2.1% and the metal price index up by 1.8% [3][117]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the declining birth rates in Europe and East Asia, exploring international experiences and potential policy recommendations for China to address this issue. Group 1: International Experience in Addressing Low Birth Rates - European and East Asian economies have implemented various birth support policies, including cash subsidies and maternity leave, which have shown positive effects [2][27] - OECD countries emphasize systematic and tiered policies targeting parents, children, and businesses, with significant fiscal support and childcare services impacting total fertility rates [2][31] - Countries like France and Sweden have successfully increased their total fertility rates above the warning line due to substantial fiscal support and comprehensive childcare systems [2][43] Group 2: Characteristics of China's Population Changes - China's fertility rate has been declining, with the proportion of women of childbearing age decreasing from 20.99% in 2003 to 16.96% in 2023 [3][67] - The average marriage age for women has risen to around 28 years by 2020, with the crude marriage rate dropping below 6% in 2023 [3][67] - The high costs of child-rearing, along with increased education and employment rates for women, contribute to the declining birth rate [3][78] Group 3: Potential Fertility Promotion Policies in China - Local governments are beginning to implement child-rearing subsidies, with Hohhot offering significant financial support for families with children [5][96] - If the Hohhot model is adopted nationwide, total subsidies could exceed 370 billion yuan, representing 1.3% of general fiscal expenditure [5][96] - A comprehensive support system is needed, including employment rights for women, educational services, healthcare improvements, and housing support [5][96]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation in China for the first four months of 2025, highlighting a decline in general public budget revenue and an increase in expenditure, indicating a potential for fiscal acceleration supported by government debt financing [2][7]. Group 1: Fiscal Performance Overview - In the first four months of 2025, general public budget revenue was 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, while expenditure was 93,581 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [2][7]. - The broad fiscal revenue grew by 2.7% year-on-year in April 2025, with expenditure increasing by 12.9%, reflecting a significant improvement compared to March [3][8]. - The budget completion rates for broad fiscal revenue and expenditure were 33% and 28.4%, respectively, both higher than the average of the past five years [3][8]. Group 2: Debt Financing and Special Bonds - The increase in broad fiscal expenditure is likely supported by government debt financing, with a fiscal deficit of 2.7 trillion yuan in April 2025, exceeding the average deficit of 1.4 trillion yuan from 2020 to 2024 [10]. - As of May 16, 2025, the net financing of government bonds reached 2.4 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 49.4%, significantly higher than the 20.9% in the same period of 2024 [10]. - The issuance progress of new special bonds remains slow at 31% as of May 16, 2025, indicating potential for acceleration if revenue recovery slows [13]. Group 3: Revenue and Expenditure Trends - Government fund revenue improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 8.1% in April 2025, driven by a 4% increase in land transfer income [19]. - Tax revenue showed signs of recovery, with general fiscal revenue increasing by 1.9% year-on-year in April 2025, supported by a notable rise in personal income tax [25]. - Broad fiscal expenditure rose by 12.9% year-on-year in April 2025, with government fund expenditure increasing by 44.7%, reflecting a strong acceleration in spending [26][31]. Group 4: Policy Implications - The article emphasizes the initiation of "incremental policies," with financial policies leading the way, and highlights the importance of monitoring the pace and direction of future fiscal expenditures [4][15]. - The current 90-day tariff "grace period" is seen as a window for accelerating established policies and strengthening incremental policy reserves [15]. - The focus on debt issuance and its utilization is critical, alongside the potential for "quasi-fiscal" measures to be implemented more rapidly [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of building a community of shared future between China and Latin America, with initiatives to enhance cooperation and trade [1] - President Xi Jinping proposed five major projects to promote development and revitalization, including inviting 300 political party officials from Latin American countries to China annually for visits [1] - The focus on high-quality development through the Belt and Road Initiative and the import of high-quality products from Latin America is highlighted [1] Group 2 - Premier Li Qiang stressed the need to strengthen the domestic circulation as a strategic move for stable economic growth, aiming for high-quality development [2] - Key areas for enhancing domestic circulation include efficient allocation of resources, deep integration of technological and industrial innovation, and ensuring a dynamic balance between supply and demand [2][3] - The government aims to address critical issues affecting economic circulation, support foreign trade enterprises, stabilize employment, and boost consumption [2][3] Group 3 - The U.S. and China made significant progress in trade talks, with the U.S. canceling 91% of additional tariffs and China reciprocating with similar measures [4] - The agreement includes a temporary suspension of 24% tariffs, indicating a potential easing of trade tensions [4][5] Group 4 - The National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference emphasized the role of technological innovation in driving new productive forces and achieving high-quality development [6] - The goal is to establish China as a technological powerhouse by 2035, focusing on key core technologies and deep integration of technology and industry [7] Group 5 - The State Council issued guidelines for sustainable urban renewal, aiming to optimize urban structures and enhance living quality [8] - Eight main tasks were outlined, including the renovation of old neighborhoods and improving urban infrastructure [9] Group 6 - The establishment of a "National Venture Capital Guidance Fund" aims to support technological innovation and the growth of technology-based enterprises [10][11] - The fund will focus on nurturing strategic emerging industries and facilitating the transformation of major technological achievements into productive forces [11] Group 7 - The State Administration for Market Regulation announced measures to combat "involution" competition and maintain fair market order, including stricter enforcement against unfair competition and price violations [13] - The initiative includes revising laws related to pricing and e-commerce to protect the rights of business entities [13][14]

同时，近年来各地招商引资竞争加剧，或助长部分领域"内卷式"竞争。 国研院调查研究报告显示，目前 地方招商"内卷化"主要表现为四"集中"：一是集中在相同产业领域进行招商；二是集中比拼政策优惠力 度；三是集中在"大项目""大企业""全产业链"方面招商；四是集中在"招项目"的环节上发力，"管项目"方 面缺少可持续性机制。 在此背景下，2024年底以来，政府和业界越发重视"反内卷"。 2024年中央政治局会议明确"防止恶性竞 争"，同年底进一步升级为"综合整治"。2025年全国两会期间，习近平总书记强调破除地方保护与市场分 割；政府工作报告首次将"综合整治'内卷式'竞争"写入政策部署，指出破除地方保护和市场分割，实施全 国统一大市场建设指引。 摘要 2025年政府工作报告明确提出"综合整治'内卷式'竞争"；哪些行业可能存在"内卷式"竞争，本轮"反内 卷"有何不同？本文系统分析，可供参考。 为何当前时点强调"反内卷"？产能利用率与PPI双重承压，地方招商引资竞争加剧 当前我国工业领域面临供需失衡压力攀升，突出表现为产能利用率与价格体系的双重承压。 截至2025年 4 月，PPI已连续31个月同比负增长，仅短于 2012 ...

Core Viewpoints - The economy is transitioning from a phase of "old forces" declining to "new forces" gaining momentum, indicating a structural shift in economic dynamics [2][4][41] Consumption - In April, the year-on-year growth of social retail sales decreased to 5.1%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to a slowdown in retail sales of goods above a certain threshold [10][64] - The consumption of essential goods remains stable, with food and oil products showing a growth of 14.0% year-on-year [2][10] - The slowdown in the "old-for-new" policy has negatively impacted the sales of automobiles and communication equipment, while home appliances continue to perform well [2][10] Investment - Fixed asset investment showed weakness in April, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 4.0%, and a month-on-month decline of 0.8 percentage points to 3.6% [2][16] - The decline in investment is attributed to the nearing end of the equipment renewal cycle, affecting manufacturing and public utility investments [2][16] - Service sector investment remains resilient, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9% in April, particularly in cultural and entertainment sectors [3][23] Real Estate - The supply issues in the real estate sector are improving, but the release of pent-up demand is entering a "decline phase" [3][26] - In April, real estate investment fell by 11.3% year-on-year, reflecting a decrease in existing projects [3][26] - The construction completion rate has significantly dropped, with a year-on-year decline of 25.8% in April, leading to a stabilization in housing prices [3][26] Industrial Production - Industrial production showed a decline, with the industrial added value year-on-year growth at 6.1%, down 1.6 percentage points from March [5][36] - Manufacturing production also experienced a marginal decline, with significant drops in sectors related to real estate and consumer goods [36][42] Employment - The urban survey unemployment rate decreased to 5.1% in April, indicating improved employment conditions for both migrant and local populations [71]

Group 1 - The article discusses the monitoring framework for assessing the economic impact of tariff shocks in the U.S., focusing on trade, prices, and risk preferences [3][27] - As of mid-May, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports has decreased to around 16%, but it remains at a historical high, with potential GDP decline of 0.65% and inflation increase of 1.7% due to tariffs [4][13][10] - The article emphasizes that the current economic condition is characterized by "stagflation," which is the baseline assumption for the short term [18][19] Group 2 - In the short term, key economic indicators to monitor include imports, inventory levels, and inflation pressures, with a notable increase in imports and stable inventory turnover ratios [4][39] - The article highlights that the inflation effects of tariffs may be delayed but are expected to manifest, impacting consumer demand [4][58] - The U.S. economy is likely to follow a dynamic path from "stagflation" to "slowdown" or "recession," depending on how tariff conflicts evolve [5][105] Group 3 - The article notes that the U.S. has experienced a significant "import rush" in the first quarter, with a stable inventory-to-sales ratio, indicating robust domestic demand despite tariff impacts [4][39] - Tariffs have led to a shift in U.S. import patterns, with increased imports from countries with lower tariff rates, such as Canada and Mexico, while imports from China have decreased significantly [36][30] - The article suggests that certain U.S. export sectors, particularly oil, coal, and basic metals, may face significant challenges due to retaliatory tariffs [47][5] Group 4 - The inflation effects of tariffs are becoming evident, with U.S. retail prices starting to reflect the impact of tariffs on imported goods [58][61] - The article indicates that the inflationary pressures may suppress consumer spending, as observed in the correlation between inflation and consumer behavior [69][61] - The financial market's volatility and increased financial pressure could further suppress investment and consumer sentiment in the U.S. economy [75][88]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent US-China trade negotiations in Geneva, resulting in mutual tariff reductions, with the US tariff on China decreasing to 42% and China's tariff on the US decreasing to 27% [2][26][31] - The US overall average tariff rate has dropped from 27% to 16%, although the new tariffs may still lead to a 0.65% decline in US GDP and a 1.7% increase in inflation [2][26] - The article highlights the performance of major stock indices, with the Nasdaq rising by 7.2% and the S&P 500 by 5.3% during the week [2][3] Group 2 - The article notes that the US CPI for April was 2.3%, slightly below the market expectation of 2.4%, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures influenced by tariffs [40] - Retail sales in the US for April showed a slight increase of 0.1%, which was better than the expected 0%, but excluding automobiles and gasoline, the retail performance was weaker than anticipated [44] - Initial jobless claims in the US were reported at 229,000, slightly above the market expectation of 228,000, suggesting potential upward pressure on the unemployment rate [46] Group 3 - The article mentions that the US 10-year Treasury yield rose by 6 basis points to 4.43%, while the yields in other developed countries showed mixed movements [12][14] - The dollar index increased by 0.6% to 100.98, with most other currencies depreciating against the dollar [17] - The article also highlights the performance of commodities, with WTI crude oil rising by 2.4% to $62.5 per barrel, while gold prices fell by 4.0% to $3191.8 per ounce [21][23]