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Core Viewpoint - The report analyzes the investment opportunities in Europe amidst the challenges and changes in the global geopolitical landscape, emphasizing the need for Chinese companies to explore diverse investment avenues in Europe [1]. Group 1: European Economic Situation - The European economy has likely passed its recent low point, with industrial production gradually recovering since Q1 2025, although consumer confidence remains low [2]. - The manufacturing PMI in April showed a rebound, and the unemployment rate in the Eurozone remained at historical lows since 2000 [2]. - Inflation in Europe is expected to be controlled in 2025, with a target return to 2%, providing room for potential interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Changes and Cooperation - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, presenting new cooperation opportunities between China and Europe, especially with the easing of U.S. tariffs and a potential resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3]. - The relationship between the U.S. and Europe has changed, with a noticeable shift towards a more balanced relationship between China and Europe, as evidenced by the cancellation of all engagement restrictions in May 2025 [3]. Group 3: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Trends - The worst period for FDI in Europe may be in the past, as macroeconomic factors that previously suppressed FDI are easing [4]. - FDI inflows have been declining, particularly in Western Europe, while Southern and Northern Europe have seen significant growth [10]. - In 2023, Europe experienced a net outflow of FDI amounting to $341.6 billion, with Western Europe showing the largest decline at -5.9% [10]. Group 4: Chinese Investment in Europe - Chinese FDI in Europe remains high but is shifting from manufacturing to sectors like finance and retail, indicating potential for growth in technology, manufacturing, and consumer services [5][32]. - The distribution of Chinese investments across European countries has become more balanced, with increased focus on Luxembourg and the UK [5][32]. - In 2023, the investment flow from China to Europe reached historical peaks in finance and retail, with manufacturing investment share declining significantly from previous years [34]. Group 5: Investment Environment and Opportunities - Europe offers a favorable investment environment due to its infrastructure, capital markets, and educated workforce, despite recent geopolitical tensions [26][27]. - Countries in Central and Eastern Europe, as well as Southern Europe, are emerging as attractive investment destinations due to their market demand and stable business environments [11]. - The EU has been actively promoting policies to attract foreign investment, ensuring that foreign investors receive national treatment and benefits similar to domestic companies [30].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the return to economic fundamentals and interest rate perspectives, suggesting that the long-term bond market is not excessively priced compared to deposit rates. The recovery of financing and inflation is relatively lagging, and the current downward trend in bond market rates is deemed reasonable based on loan rates as a benchmark [1]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Trends - Since 2022, the broad interest rate trend indicates that the current decline in bond market rates is justified when viewed through the lens of loan rates. The bond market is currently in a plateau phase due to short-term funding friction and external factors that cast doubt on the sustainability of low long-term domestic interest rates [1]. Monetary Policy Impact - The dual interest rate cuts have both short-term and long-term effects, with monetary policy adjustments leading to a return to "normal" funding conditions. After the reserve requirement ratio cut, funding has marginally tightened due to fluctuations caused by changes in monetary policy deployment timing. The impact of deposit rates on funding outflows is not significant until after 2024, with short-term funding friction expected to end by the end of Q2 [1]. Investment Strategy - Following a stair-step approach, the strategy is shifting again, favoring short-term yield strategies. There may be room for extending duration in Q3. Increased awareness of the risks of long-term interest rate rebounds is suppressing a rush into the bond market. In the short term, yield strategies are more cost-effective, and it is advised to maintain duration without chasing long-term bonds, focusing on convexity points in the yield curve [1]. Low-Interest Rate Environment - In a low-interest rate environment, there is a focus on cost reduction and profit enhancement through new strategies and asset classes. Attention is directed towards innovation bonds and REITs, as well as the expansion and rotation of bond fund ETFs. The rise of quantitative strategies in the bond market is also highlighted [1].

Core Viewpoint - The brokerage industry is experiencing significant performance growth alongside notable operational differentiation, with a 83% year-on-year increase in profits for Q1, while proprietary trading and asset management businesses have seen declines of 38% and 55% respectively, indicating a critical period of transformation and differentiation within the sector [1]. Group 1: Institutional Business - The era of simple expansion in fixed income proprietary trading is over, and the current focus is on transformation, with three key directions: enhancing strategic trading capabilities, increasing client demand business investment, and exploring cross-border asset allocation [1]. - In equity business, the gradual increase in high-dividend OCI has become a consensus within the industry, suggesting a shift in investment strategies [1]. - Leading brokerages with comprehensive advantages and stronger cross-border asset allocation capabilities are expected to outperform [1]. Group 2: Wealth Management & Asset Management - The asset management sector is undergoing accelerated transformation, with public funds entering a new phase of development driven by continuous policy guidance since 2023 [1]. - The "Action Plan for High-Quality Development of Public Funds" aims to promote high-quality expansion of the industry and encourage differentiated development among fund companies, which will benefit leading brokerages with controlling stakes in public funds [1]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The brokerage industry is currently in a critical period of transformation and change, with recommendations to continue favoring leading comprehensive brokerages that possess balanced business structures and stronger professional capabilities [1].

Group 1 - The introduction of the AEB (Automatic Emergency Braking) strong standard regulation is expected to accelerate the penetration of line control braking and promote domestic substitution of ESC (Electronic Stability Control) [1][2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has organized the solicitation of opinions for the national standard on AEB, with a proposed implementation date of January 1, 2028 [1] - The current penetration rate of AEB in new passenger cars in China is projected to reach 63% in 2024, an increase of approximately 5.6 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2 - AEB hardware consists of two main parts: intelligent driving (including cameras, millimeter-wave radar, and controllers) and chassis execution (which can utilize ESC or line control braking) [2] - Currently, ESC is primarily dominated by foreign companies, presenting significant opportunities for domestic substitution [2] - The new regulation is anticipated to drive the penetration of line control braking due to its higher braking efficiency compared to ESC [2]

国泰海通证券政策和产业研究院 国别研究负责人 陈熙淼 国泰海通证券政策和产业研究院 院长助理 汪立亭 全球地缘格局和大国博弈背景下，中欧关系与经贸投资往来同步面临深刻挑战与机遇。本篇报告作 为国别研究之欧洲研究系列专题一，期望从经济、地缘、投资、金融等视角深度剖析和解读，如何 在当下多边主义时代看待欧洲投资机会，并为中国企业赴欧洲出海投资提供更多维度的分析视角。 拨云见日，掘金多瑙 —— 欧洲 国 别研究专 题 系列 （三、金融与资本市场变化） 4.1. 金融市场表现： 5 月特朗普关税政策缓和，欧元兑美元高位回落，欧美国债利差收窄 通胀水平放缓为欧洲央行进一步降息提供操作空间， 4 月以来特朗普关税政策缓和，欧洲投资者信心已显著回升。 因步入 5 月，特朗普关税政 策明显缓和和近期欧元区通胀水平的走低为后续货币政策操作打开空间，欧洲央行决策者对 6 月降息的信心有所增强，而 5 月欧元区投资者信 心指数显示较 4 月明显回升，且结构上，无论是机构还是个人投资者预期攀升幅度明显高于现状指数。 5 月 9 日，欧洲央行管委 Simkus 表 示：欧洲央行 6 月降息是必要的， 6 月之后有可能再次降息，且目前很 ...

Power Generation Sector - The core viewpoint is that the northern thermal power sector shows resilience while hydropower maintains stable growth, leading to an "overweight" rating for the public utility sector [1] - In Q1 2025, the profitability of national thermal power companies continues to grow, with northern thermal power plants outperforming southern ones [1] - The median PE ratios for thermal power companies have decreased from 15.7 in Q1 2023 to 10.4 in Q1 2025, indicating a decline in market confidence regarding the sustainability of profit improvements [1][2] - Hydropower companies maintained a high growth rate in Q1 2025, with a median profit growth rate of 26%, driven by improved water storage and scheduling [2] - The median PE ratios for hydropower companies were 16.7, 18.8, and 18.1 for Q1 2023, Q1 2024, and Q1 2025 respectively, reflecting stable performance and improved valuations for leading companies [2] Green Energy Sector - Green energy companies are facing profit pressure due to declining electricity prices and unfavorable wind conditions, with median net profit growth rates of -12% in 2024 and -4% in Q1 2025 [3] - The overall industry is experiencing a situation of increasing revenue but not increasing profits, with expectations of recovery in 2025 as wind energy utilization hours improve [3] - Since 2022, the valuation of green energy companies has been continuously revised downwards, with a projected median net profit growth rate of around 12% for 2025 [3] Yiwu Trade Data - Yiwu's import and export total reached 231.31 billion yuan in the first four months of 2023, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%, with exports growing by 15.3% and imports by 13.5% [5] - The market procurement trade method accounted for 81.7% of Yiwu's total exports, indicating a strong contribution from this trade model [5][6] - Exports to major markets such as Latin America, the EU, and ASEAN showed strong growth, with increases of 18.3%, 15.5%, and 12.3% respectively [6] - The import structure is improving, with a significant increase in imports of mechanical and electrical products by 73.4% in the first four months [7]

亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 更多国泰海通研究和服务 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 ...

本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 重要提醒 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 法律声明 ...

重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 ...