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Group 1 - The global economic system is undergoing a reconstruction driven by changes in the trust foundation, primarily influenced by shifts in international relations, leading to a gradual "de-dollarization" process [1] - The long-term bull market for gold should be viewed from a historical perspective, as the trend of declining trust among countries is unlikely to change, indicating a historical shift in the gold market [1] - In the long run, as long as the U.S. economy maintains its correction capabilities, the dollar will not collapse; however, in the medium to short term, there are concerns about a potential decline in dollar credit [1] Group 2 - Domestic macroeconomic policies are expected to continue marginally increasing, particularly after July, with hopes for further fiscal policy support and potential comprehensive interest rate cuts in the second half of the year [2] - The short-term economic demand in China needs to be boosted to achieve a growth target of around 5% by 2025, necessitating active policy measures [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential economic impacts and risks associated with the recently passed OBBB Act, which extends tax cuts and modifies tax policies in the U.S. economy, highlighting three main risks: financing risk, economic risk, and trust risk [1][5]. Summary by Sections OBBB Act Overview - The OBBB Act, passed by the U.S. House of Representatives on May 22, extends tax cuts from the 2017 TCJA Act, stabilizing tax policy expectations for individuals and businesses [2]. - The act is projected to increase the deficit by $2.3 trillion over the next 10 years, which is $900 billion less than earlier budget proposals, primarily due to significant cuts in welfare programs [2]. Deficit and Debt Implications - The act does not significantly alter the long-term trajectory of U.S. government debt, with a temporary increase in the deficit rate expected to exceed 7% before stabilizing around 6.5% [2]. - The arrangement of tax cuts preceding spending cuts may lead to uncertainties in actual deficit outcomes, as political motivations could affect the execution of spending cuts [3]. Risks Associated with the OBBB Act - **Financing Risk**: The act creates "untimely" pressure on U.S. debt supply, particularly before 2028, in a high inflation and high interest rate environment, potentially leading to mismatches in supply and demand for government bonds [5]. - **Economic Risk**: Certain tax reform provisions may exacerbate income inequality, as many tax cuts are extensions rather than new measures, which could lower expectations for economic stimulation [5]. - **Trust Risk**: New taxes on capital and labor entering the U.S. could undermine trust in the dollar system, potentially leading to a negative feedback loop affecting U.S. credit and economic recovery [5][4].

Group 1: Macro Economic Outlook - The global economy is undergoing a restructuring of the monetary system, driven by changes in trust due to shifts in international relations, leading to a gradual "de-dollarization" process [3] - The long-term bull market for gold is expected to continue, as the decline in trust among countries is unlikely to change, indicating a historical shift [3] - In the short to medium term, the U.S. dollar may face further credit decline risks, with potential upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields and inflation expectations [3] Group 2: U.S. Tax Policy Risks - The new U.S. tax reduction plan presents three main risks: financing risk due to inappropriate U.S. debt supply pressure, economic risk from unfair income distribution effects, and trust risk related to unfriendly international tax policies [6] Group 3: Trade Relations and Asset Prices - Historical analysis shows that asset prices are significantly influenced by trade relations, with market sensitivity to negative signals being higher than to positive ones [7] - The performance of different asset classes varies, with stocks and currencies being more sensitive to trade signals compared to the bond market [7] Group 4: Convertible Bonds Market - The convertible bond market is expected to enter a bull market due to supply-demand mismatches, with low interest rates driving demand for attractive assets [9] - The risk of credit shocks in the convertible bond market is considered manageable, with strong support for the current convertible bond pricing [10] Group 5: IPO Market Strategy - The IPO market is set for high-quality development, with regulatory support for technology-driven companies and a steady increase in the number of IPOs expected in 2025 [16][17] - The anticipated issuance of 80 to 140 new stocks in 2025 is expected to raise approximately 94 billion yuan, with a projected average first-day increase of 150% for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [17] Group 6: Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery industry is facing intensified price competition, but healthy competition is expected to prevail, with market share likely concentrating among leading companies [18] - The resilience of leading e-commerce delivery companies is noted, with their performance remaining stable amid competitive pressures [18] Group 7: 3D DRAM Technology - The transition from 2D to 3D DRAM architecture is highlighted as a long-term trend, with significant implications for AI applications and hardware development [20] Group 8: Textile and Apparel Industry - The textile and apparel industry is expected to benefit from high-end segments and e-commerce trends, with a focus on brands that adapt to new market dynamics [22][23] Group 9: Yellow Wine Industry - The yellow wine industry is undergoing structural upgrades, with leading companies focusing on high-end product development and targeting younger consumer demographics [25]

Core Viewpoint - The AI ASIC industry is experiencing significant growth opportunities due to its advantages over general-purpose chips like GPUs and CPUs in terms of computing power, efficiency, and cost per unit of computing power, which are driving demand growth [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The ASIC market is catalyzed by its ability to adapt to various business scenarios and customer needs, providing flexibility in business layout [1]. - Major overseas CSP companies are launching self-developed chips, with Google releasing its latest TPU chip, Trillium, which has more than doubled its computing power compared to the previous generation [2]. - AWS has introduced the Trainium series, with the latest Trainium2 chip's performance being four times that of its predecessor, showcasing advancements in AI chip technology [2]. Group 2: Company Performance - Leading AI ASIC design companies like Broadcom and Marvell are benefiting from the surge in AI demand, with Broadcom projecting a 220% year-on-year increase in AI business revenue to $12.2 billion for fiscal year 2024 [3]. - Broadcom anticipates that its AI business revenue will reach between $60 billion to $90 billion by 2027, indicating strong market confidence [3]. - Marvell expects its AI business revenue to grow from $550 million to $2.5 billion between fiscal years 2024 and 2026, reflecting accelerated growth [3].