Group 1: Overall Market Performance - From December 2024 to January 19, 2025, 957 companies announced their earnings forecasts for 2024, with only 44% (425 companies) expecting profits and 40% (384 companies) anticipating year-on-year growth. However, there was an improvement in Q4 performance, aligning with the GDP growth trend reported by the National Bureau of Statistics [2] - Among the companies that announced their forecasts before January 17, 72% expected profits, and 58% anticipated positive year-on-year growth. In contrast, from January 17 to 19, only 35% of the 716 companies forecasted profits, and 34% expected positive growth, indicating a significant decline in optimistic forecasts [2] Group 2: Industry Insights - Companies with high export revenue showed a higher proportion of profit growth. The semiconductor storage, home appliance, IoT, and equipment sub-industries had a notable increase in profit forecasts. Additionally, the PCB industry's HDI board supply chain, optical modules, optical lenses, home refrigeration equipment, automotive parts, and pharmaceuticals (antibiotics, aquaculture, beer, and express shipping) also showed relatively high profit growth expectations [2] Group 3: Company-Specific Analysis - Haida Group, primarily engaged in feed and pig farming, forecasted a net profit of between 4.25 billion to 4.8 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 55.04% to 75.10%. The growth is attributed to the rebound in pig prices and effective futures hedging, alongside a 9% increase in its feed business, which generated 96 billion yuan in revenue last year [5] - Qingmu Technology, focused on online retail services, projected a net profit growth of 63.20% to 92.00% for 2024. The growth is driven by a 30% increase in its core e-commerce operation services and significant contributions from its brand incubation business, which generated 200 million yuan in revenue, compared to 1 billion yuan for the entire year of 2023 [6]

Group 1: Chip Industry Insights - Chipong Micro is expected to achieve a revenue of 940 million to 980 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.45% to 25.58%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be between 100 million to 120 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 68.13% to 101.76% [2] - The growth in performance is primarily driven by over 60% year-on-year revenue growth in high/low voltage driver chips, digital power chips, and smart power devices and modules. The company has over 1,700 effective product models, with major applications in home appliances and standard power supplies [2] - TSMC reported a revenue of $26.887 billion for Q4 2024, a 37% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin of 59%. The high growth in revenue and profit is attributed to the significant increase in the proportion of revenue from 3nm and 5nm advanced processes, driven mainly by AI-related high-performance computing applications [3] Group 2: Consumer Sector Insights - Zhongchong Co., as a leading player in the domestic pet food industry, is expected to see a net profit attributable to the parent company grow by 54% to 72% in 2024, with a median annual net profit of approximately 380 million yuan [6] - The growth is supported by the expansion of domestic and overseas sales channels and an increase in sales volume, with the overseas revenue exceeding domestic revenue by more than double [6] - Yizhi Konjac, listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange, has a unique competitive advantage in the konjac product sector, with konjac balls experiencing a remarkable growth rate of 61% in the first half of 2024, driven by increasing consumer demand for healthy beverages [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and an expectation that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index [32]. Core Insights - The camera industry chain is expected to continue its upward trend in prosperity, driven by significant growth in the performance forecasts of key companies such as Yutong Optical, Qiu Tai Technology, Crystal Optoelectronics, and Hongsoft Technology for 2024 [4][5]. - The overall high growth of these companies likely reflects the improving prosperity of the entire camera industry chain, with various segments such as security, automotive, and consumer electronics contributing to this trend [4][5]. - The global smartphone and PC sales are projected to achieve real growth in 2024, ending a period of decline, while the demand for AI-enabled applications and smart vehicles is expected to further boost the industry [4][16]. Summary by Sections Company Performance Forecasts - Yutong Optical expects a net profit of 160-200 million yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 418.56%-548.20% due to increased business volume in security and automotive optics [6]. - Hongsoft Technology anticipates a net profit of approximately 178 million yuan, representing a 101.16% year-on-year growth, driven by revenue increases in mobile smart terminals and smart vehicles [6]. - Qiu Tai Technology forecasts a net profit growth of 200%-280% for 2024, with a median profit of 284 million yuan, attributed to the positive market for AIoT devices and smartphones [6]. - Crystal Optoelectronics projects a net profit of 1-1.12 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 66.6%-86.6% due to the recovery in the global consumer electronics industry [6]. Industry Recovery Trends - The camera industry chain has shown a clear recovery trend from 2022 to 2024, with companies like Weir Shares and Siterway experiencing rapid growth due to their entry into the domestic Android smartphone market [8][11]. - The revenue growth rates for optical lens companies have also improved significantly, with companies like O-Film showing a 34% increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 [11]. Demand from AI and Smart Vehicles - Global smartphone sales are projected to reach 334 million units in Q4 2024, marking a 1.7% year-on-year increase, indicating a turnaround from previous declines [16][19]. - The domestic retail sales of new energy vehicles are expected to grow by 41% in 2024, with a penetration rate of 47.6%, driven by the advantages of smart and hybrid vehicles over traditional fuel vehicles [20][24].

第一创业证券研究所 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 1 月 16 日 晨会纪要 一、宏观经济组： 事件： 分析师：李怀军 证书编号：S1080510120001 电话：010-63197789 邮箱：lihuaijun@fcsc.com 证书编号：S1080524120001 电话：0755-23838533 邮箱：guoqiang@fcsc.com 1 月 15 日（星期三），美国劳工部统计局公布 12 月 CPI 数据；1 月 14 日（星 期二）公布 PPI 数据。 点评： 12 月美国未季调 CPI 同比为 2.9%，预期 2.9%,前值（11 月）为 2.7%；季调后 CPI 环比为 0.4%，预期为 0.3%，前值为 0.3%。 分析师：郭强 从 12 月核心 CPI 来看，未季调同比为 3.2%，预期为 3.3%，前值为 3.3%；季 调后核心环比为 0.2%，预期为 0.2%，前值为 0.3%。 12 月美国 CPI 未季调环比为 0.0%，前值为-0.1%；未季调核心 CPI 环比为 0.0%， 前值为 0.1%。从结构上看，各分项 12 月与 ...

证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 1 月 15 日 晨会纪要 一[、T宏ab观le研_究Su组mmary] 第一创业证券研究所 证书编号：S1080524120001 电话：0755-23838533 邮箱：guoqiang@fcsc.com 点评： 从存量上看，12 月 M1 同比增长-1.4%，高于 Wind 预期-3.3%，较 11 月-3.7% 回升 2.3 个百分点；M2 同比增长 7.3%，与 Wind 预期持平，较 11 月 7.1% 回升 0.2 个百分点；12 月 M1-M2 同比之差为-8.7%，较上月回升 2.1 个百 分点，表明货币流通速度有所回升。而 12 月社融存量同比为 8.0%，与 Wind 预期持平，较 11 月 7.8%回升 0.2 个百分点；社融与 M2 同比之差为 0.7%， 与 11 月持平，说明对资金需求增速相对于资金供给增速，保持相对稳定。 分析师：郭强 从增量上看，12 月社融新增规模为 2.86 万亿元，前值为 2.33 万亿；同比 多增 9249 亿元；其中，政府债券同比多增 8288 亿，企业债券同比多增 2588 亿元，银行贷款少增 2685 亿元， ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and an expectation that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index [18]. Core Viewpoints - The TV panel prices are showing an upward trend in January 2025, with 65-inch and 75-inch panels increasing by $2 per unit, reaching $178 and $242 respectively. The 85-inch panels are priced at $360, while smaller panels (32 to 55 inches) remain stable compared to December 2024 [2][4]. - The domestic panel market is expected to benefit from the "old-for-new" appliance replacement policy, which is projected to sustain throughout 2025, leading to increased panel sales [6]. - The exit of major players like Samsung and LG from the TFT TV panel industry has resulted in a higher concentration of market share among domestic manufacturers, with a reported 68.6% market share for Chinese manufacturers by November 2024 [11]. - The trend towards larger TV sizes is evident, with the market share of 85-inch TVs increasing from 10% to 20% in 2024, indicating a growing demand for larger panels [13]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - In January 2025, TV panel prices are on the rise, with specific increases noted for larger sizes. The 65-inch panel is now at $178, the 75-inch at $242, and the 85-inch at $360, while smaller sizes remain stable [2][4]. Market Dynamics - The "old-for-new" policy has led to a 7.7% increase in sales area for large panels in 2024, and this trend is expected to continue into 2025, further boosting sales [6]. - The exit of Samsung and LG has reduced the number of major players in the market, enhancing the competitive landscape for remaining domestic manufacturers [11]. Size Trends - The retail market for 85-inch TVs has seen a significant increase in share, rising from 10% to 20% in 2024, reflecting a shift towards larger screen sizes [13].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating a favorable outlook for the lithium battery materials sector, with expectations that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index [35]. Core Insights - The lithium battery materials industry is expected to see a recovery in its economic conditions after a prolonged downturn, with signs of price stabilization and potential investment opportunities emerging [5][31]. - The overall price decline in the lithium battery supply chain has slowed, with significant reductions in prices for key materials such as lithium carbonate and separators, which have seen declines of 73% and 60% respectively since late 2021 [5][8]. - The planned investment in the lithium battery sector for 2024 is projected to be less than 320 billion, a decrease of over 70% compared to 2023, indicating a significant contraction in new capacity investments [10][12]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - The lithium battery materials supply chain has experienced a significant price drop since late 2021, with separators down 60%, battery-grade lithium carbonate down 73%, and artificial graphite down 46%. However, by early 2024, the price declines began to stabilize, with separators expected to decrease by 30% for the year but stabilize in the second half [5][8][9]. Supply and Investment - The planned investment in the lithium battery sector for 2024 is projected to be less than 320 billion, a decrease of over 70% compared to 2023 and over 77% compared to 2022. The investment in electrolytes and copper foil is expected to drop by more than 90% compared to 2023 [10][12]. Demand Growth - Global lithium-ion battery shipments are expected to reach 1545.1 GWh in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.5%. The demand for batteries in the energy storage sector is also anticipated to grow significantly, with domestic energy storage tender volumes exceeding 190 GW, more than doubling year-on-year [16][20][27]. Future Outlook - The introduction of new vehicle replacement subsidies in 2025 is expected to further boost the growth of domestic new energy vehicle sales, which are projected to maintain a growth rate of around 20% [24][31]. The demand for energy storage batteries is also expected to increase due to regulatory changes requiring longer storage durations [30][31].

证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 1 月 14 日 晨会纪要 一[、T宏ab观le研_究Su组mmary] 第一创业证券研究所 事件： 证书编号：S1080510120001 电话：010-63197789 邮箱：lihuaijun@fcsc.com 证书编号：S1080524120001 电话：0755-23838533 邮箱：guoqiang@fcsc.com 第 1 页 共 4 页 晨会纪要 1 月 13 日（星期一）中国海关公布 2024 年 12 月外贸数据。 分析师：李怀军 点评： 以美元计价，中国 2024 年 12 月出口同比增长 10.7%，高于 WIND 预期 7.14%， 前值（11 月）增长 6.7%；进口增长 1.0%，高于 WIND 预期-1.02%，前值增长 -3.9%；贸易顺差 1048 亿美元，首次创出 1000 亿美元以上的单月最高顺差纪 录，前值 974 亿美元。以累计增速计，1-12 月出口同比增为 5.9%，而 1-11 月 为 5.4%；1-12 月进口累计增速 1.1%，而 1-11 月为 1.2%。从累计增速看，进 出口增速更为稳定，自二季度起出口逐月上升， ...

Economic Overview - In December, the U.S. added 256,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected increase of 160,000, marking the highest monthly increase since June 2024 [2] - The unemployment rate in December was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.2% [2] - Private non-farm average hourly wages increased by 3.9% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 4.0% [2] Employment Structure - Government jobs increased by 33,000, while private goods-producing jobs saw a decrease of 8,000 [3] - The private service sector added 231,000 jobs, with notable increases in education and healthcare (80,000), leisure and hospitality (43,000), and professional and business services (28,000) [3] Market Reaction - The positive employment data led to a rise in the dollar index by 48 basis points to 109.66, while U.S. Treasury yields fell [4] - Gold prices increased by 0.76% to $2,690 per ounce, and silver rose by 0.94% to $30.38 per ounce [4] - U.S. stock markets experienced declines, with NASDAQ and Dow Jones down by 1.63% and S&P 500 down by 1.54% respectively [4] Panel Industry - TV panel prices showed an upward trend in January 2025, with 65-inch and 75-inch panels increasing by $2 each, reaching $178 and $242 respectively [7] - The sales area for large-size panels grew by 7.7% due to government subsidies for replacing old appliances, which is expected to continue into 2025 [7] - The market share of Chinese LCD TV panel manufacturers reached 68.6% by November 2024, indicating improved industry concentration and competition [7][8] Consumer Sector - Yanjing Beer is expected to significantly reduce losses in Q4 2024, with a projected sales increase of 30% for its core product [10] - Despite a strong performance in 2023, Yanjing's stock price fell by approximately 20%, but has since rebounded by about 20% since late September 2024 [10] - Wanchen Group is noted for its strong performance, with potential for further growth if market conditions improve [12]

Core Insights - The report highlights the stability of CPI and PPI in December, with CPI year-on-year growth at 0.1% and PPI at -2.3%, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in the economy [3][5] - The report anticipates continued growth in the energy storage sector, projecting over 50% growth in 2025 due to new policies in Shanghai [10] - The automotive industry is expected to benefit from domestic policies, with a projected growth rate of 5.5% in 2024 for passenger vehicles, particularly in the new energy segment [11][12] Economic Indicators - December CPI year-on-year growth was 0.1%, matching expectations, while core CPI grew by 0.4% [3] - December PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.3%, with a month-on-month change of -0.1% [4] - Food prices saw a significant decline, with fresh vegetables down 2.4% and pork prices down 2.1% [4] Industry Analysis - The highest month-on-month increase in December was seen in the electricity and heat production and supply industry at 0.9% [5] - The coal mining and washing industry experienced the largest decline at -1.9% [5] - The report notes a recovery in service sector performance, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% in December [5] Company Performance - Hai Da Group expects a net profit of 4.25 billion to 4.8 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 55% to 75% [12] - Zhongshi Technology anticipates a net profit of 190 million to 220 million yuan for 2024, representing a growth of 157.6% to 198.28% [13] - The report indicates that the consumer electronics sector is showing signs of recovery, particularly driven by AI applications [13] Market Trends - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for the domestic automotive market, driven by government incentives and increasing penetration of new energy vehicles [11][12] - The energy storage market is projected to grow significantly due to new regulations and increasing demand for renewable energy integration [10] - The report suggests that the agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming, is expected to see improved profitability as feed costs decline [12]