证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2026-02-06 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观点评 20260204：商品流动性冲击之后，哪些品种被"错杀"？ 大宗商品市场每一轮流动性冲击和恐慌情绪急跌，在完成"清洗"高杠 杆、高风偏的超涨品种之外，部分依托于供需产业链改善逻辑的品种却也 被流动性风险"误伤"，在风险中心已渐进平息之后，被错杀和被误伤的 商品品种和板块，或再度回归各自基本面定价逻辑，迎来相比轮动式上涨 阶段更好的介入时机。 金融产品深度报告 20260203：黄金 ETF，2026 年 1 月复盘与 2 月展望 事件驱动盘点： 资产配置价值：宏观数据与政策预期在月内反复切换， 降息预期对黄金资产配置价值形成阶段性支撑，但政策不确定性上升亦 带来短期扰动。 货币价值：美元信用变化主导黄金货币属性定价，美元 指数与储备结构调整对金价形成阶段性影响，货币价值在支撑与压制之 间反复博弈。 避险价值：多区域地缘与政治风险交织抬升市场不确定 性，避险需求呈现事件驱动、脉冲式释放特征，为金价提供阶段性支撑。 商品价值：央行购金与投资端需求预期保持稳 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to see gradual improvement in Q4 earnings, benefiting from advancements in space photovoltaic and robotics industrialization [1] - The company has achieved a significant milestone by validating the cutting of 50μm ultra-thin silicon wafers, positioning itself to benefit from cutting-edge applications in the photovoltaic sector [8] - The company is entering the robotics market, leveraging its core technology in grinding equipment and tungsten wire materials, which may open up a new growth trajectory [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 6,184 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 73.19%. However, a decline is expected in 2024 and 2025, with revenues of 4,474 million yuan and 3,817 million yuan, respectively [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,461.12 million yuan in 2023, but is expected to decline to -44.23 million yuan in 2024 and -40.23 million yuan in 2025, before recovering to 127.28 million yuan in 2026 and 240.55 million yuan in 2027 [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.76 yuan in 2023, dropping to -0.05 yuan in 2024 and 2025, and recovering to 0.15 yuan in 2026 and 0.29 yuan in 2027 [1] Market Data Summary - The closing price of the stock is 14.20 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 11,797 million yuan [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is currently at 8.20, with projections of -270.86 in 2024 and -297.77 in 2025, before stabilizing at 94.12 in 2026 and 49.80 in 2027 [1][9] - The company has a net asset value per share of 4.70 yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 49.59% [6]

证券研究报告·海外公司深度·汽车(HS) 奇瑞汽车（09973.HK） 深耕出海，多品牌协同拓展增长边界 2026 年 02 月 05 日 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 163,205 | 269,897 | 303,208 | 329,400 | 372,250 | | 同比(%) | 76.21 | 65.37 | 12.34 | 8.64 | 13.01 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 11,953 | 14,135 | 18,410 | 21,076 | 25,375 | | 同比(%) | 90.76 | 18.25 | 30.25 | 14.48 | 20.40 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 2.06 | 2.43 | 3.17 | 3.63 | 4.37 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 12.26 | 10.37 | 7.96 | 6.95 | 5.77 | [T ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Chery Automobile (09973.HK) for the first time [1]. Core Insights - Chery Automobile is transitioning towards globalization and intelligence, with a focus on multiple brands to meet diverse market demands. The company has established a clear equity structure involving state-owned assets, strategic investors, and management, which enhances operational efficiency and strategic alignment [8][13]. - The financial outlook is positive, with significant revenue growth driven by the expansion of new energy vehicles and increasing overseas sales. The report forecasts a substantial increase in net profit from 11.95 billion yuan in 2023 to 25.38 billion yuan by 2027 [1][17]. - Chery's brand strategy includes five distinct brands: Chery, Jetour, Exeed, iCAR, and Zhijie, each targeting different market segments and customer needs [38][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Basic Information - Chery Automobile was founded in 1997 and has evolved from a local manufacturer to a global technology-driven automotive enterprise. The company has a clear equity structure that balances state ownership, strategic investments, and management control [13][14]. - The company has seen rapid revenue growth from 2022 to 2024, primarily due to the increasing contribution of new energy vehicles and sustained overseas revenue growth [17][18]. 2. Existing Brand System - Chery's main brand targets the mainstream market with a focus on high cost-performance and diverse powertrain options. Jetour emphasizes family travel and off-road capabilities, while Exeed targets high-end users. iCAR is aimed at younger consumers with a focus on personalization, and Zhijie leverages collaboration with Huawei for smart experiences [38][39]. 3. Export Strategy - Chery has a well-established export strategy that began in developing markets and is now expanding into key markets like Russia and Europe. The company has adapted its product offerings and distribution channels to suit local market conditions [55][60]. - The Tiggo series is central to Chery's product strategy, with a focus on multiple brands and energy types to cater to different regional markets [65]. 4. Technological Foundation - Chery is enhancing its platform-based manufacturing capabilities and pursuing a dual-track strategy of self-research and collaboration with leading technology partners. The company aims to consolidate its R&D efforts to improve efficiency and innovation [8][34]. 5. Profit Forecast and Investment Advice - The report projects Chery's net profit to reach 18.41 billion yuan in 2025, with a corresponding P/E ratio indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers. The strong momentum in new energy development and solid export positioning justify a higher valuation for the company [1][17].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see gradual improvement in Q4 earnings, benefiting from the space photovoltaic and robotics industrialization [1] - The company has achieved a significant increase in Q4 net profit, with an expected range of 33.63 to 46.63 million yuan, representing a quarter-on-quarter growth of 386% to 574% and a year-on-year growth of 113% to 118% [8] - The company has successfully validated the cutting of 50μm ultra-thin silicon wafers, positioning itself to benefit from advanced applications in space photovoltaics [8] - The company is entering the robotics market, leveraging its core technology in grinding equipment and tungsten wire materials, which may open a new growth curve [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 6,184 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 73.19% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is forecasted to be between -0.40 billion yuan, reflecting a downward adjustment due to oversupply in the photovoltaic industry [8] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be -0.05 yuan, with a projected recovery to 0.15 yuan in 2026 and 0.29 yuan in 2027 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2026 and 2027 is estimated to be 94 and 50 times, respectively [1]

Macro Strategy - The report discusses the impact of liquidity shocks on commodity markets, highlighting that certain commodities, which are fundamentally supported by supply and demand improvements, have been "misjudged" during these shocks. As the risk center stabilizes, these commodities may return to their fundamental pricing logic, presenting better entry opportunities compared to previous rotation phases [1][10]. Financial Products - The report reviews the performance of gold ETFs in January 2026, noting that macro data and policy expectations fluctuated, with interest rate cut expectations providing temporary support for gold asset allocation. The report emphasizes the importance of U.S. macro data, monetary policy statements, and geopolitical developments in influencing gold prices in February 2026 [2][12]. - The report indicates that as of January 30, 2026, the total market value of the Huaan Gold ETF reached 127.526 billion yuan, with a trading volume of 74.397 billion yuan on that day [2][12]. Fixed Income - The report analyzes the outflow of deposits under different scenarios, estimating that by the end of 2026, the total amount of term deposits could reach 188.62 trillion yuan under a low growth scenario, with an excess outflow of 32.3 trillion yuan. In a medium growth scenario, the total could reach 193.11 trillion yuan with an excess outflow of 27.8 trillion yuan, and in a high growth scenario, it could reach 197.60 trillion yuan with an excess outflow of 21.5 trillion yuan [3][4][16]. Industry Recommendations - Huatai Securities plans to issue zero-coupon convertible bonds worth 10 billion yuan to support its overseas business development. The initial conversion price is set at 19.7 HKD per share, with a dilution effect on H shares but minimal impact on A shares. This financing method is seen as beneficial for the company's international business growth [5][17]. - Baba Foods reported a revenue of 1.859 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11.2%. The company is expected to accelerate growth in 2026 through new store formats and acquisitions, with projected net profits of 270 million, 330 million, and 400 million yuan for 2025-2027 [7][20]. - Fute Technology, a leading player in the vehicle power supply industry, is expected to see significant profit growth, with projected net profits of 230 million, 365 million, and 535 million yuan for 2025-2027, driven by expanding customer bases and technological advancements [8][21].

Core Conclusions - The report highlights a potential loosening of regulations for L4 commercialization in North America, with discussions to increase the annual deployment limit of vehicles without traditional controls from 2,500 to 90,000 [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the outcomes of the U.S. hearings and the potential unification of federal and state regulations, as well as the initial operational safety and reliability of Tesla's no-safety-driver Robotaxi service launched in Austin [2][11] - Investment recommendations favor B-end software companies over C-end hardware companies, with specific stock picks in both H-shares and A-shares [2] AI Smart Car Investment Framework - The report outlines a spiral upward iteration of hardware and software, indicating that each significant capability upgrade represents a paradigm shift in thinking [7] - The timeline for L1 to L4 development is projected, with significant advancements expected by 2030, particularly in the areas of E/E architecture upgrades and high-computing chips [8][10] L4 RoboX Monthly Tracking - Tesla's Robotaxi business is rapidly advancing, particularly in Austin, with plans for expansion into other regions like California and New York [22] - The report details the growth of Tesla's Robotaxi fleet, with a notable increase in operational area from 20 square miles to 243 square miles in Austin [24] - Comparatively, Waymo's operational area expansion is characterized by a more gradual approach, with a broader geographic footprint but less rapid growth in individual regions [25] L2-L3 Smartization C-end Monthly Tracking - The report forecasts a total retail sales volume of 22 million vehicles in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.2% [39] - It provides detailed projections for passenger car sales, including a breakdown of domestic and new energy vehicle sales, with expected penetration rates for new energy vehicles reaching 60% by 2026 [39][41] Smartization Supply Chain Tracking - The report identifies key players in the smart vehicle supply chain, including B-end unmanned vehicle manufacturers and core upstream suppliers such as chip manufacturers and sensor providers [2] - It emphasizes the importance of collaboration between technology providers and vehicle manufacturers to enhance the overall smart vehicle ecosystem [20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company plans to issue zero-coupon convertible bonds amounting to 10 billion yuan, primarily to support the development of its overseas business and supplement other operating funds [8] - The issuance is expected to have a significant dilution effect on H shares but minimal impact on A shares, with an initial conversion price set at 19.7 HKD per H share, representing a 7% premium over the previous trading day [8] - The company’s leverage ratio is projected to increase slightly before the conversion of the bonds but is expected to decrease post-conversion, indicating a manageable impact on overall leverage [8] - The financing is anticipated to bolster the company's international business, which has shown a revenue contribution of 14% in the first half of 2025, with plans to expand into mature and emerging markets [8] - The regulatory environment is supportive of domestic brokers expanding overseas, which aligns with the company's strategic goals [8] - The long-term outlook for the securities industry remains positive, driven by capital market reforms and a recovering macroeconomic environment, which is expected to enhance market investment enthusiasm [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to be 36.58 billion yuan in 2023, increasing to 42.34 billion yuan by 2027, with a notable decline in 2025 [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from 12.75 billion yuan in 2023 to 20.99 billion yuan in 2027, with a significant increase in 2025 [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 1.41 yuan in 2023 to 2.32 yuan in 2027, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 15.41 in 2023 to 9.48 by 2027, indicating an attractive valuation over time [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company plans to issue zero-coupon convertible bonds amounting to 10 billion yuan, primarily to support the development of its overseas business and supplement other operating funds [8] - The issuance is expected to have a significant dilution effect on H shares but minimal impact on A shares, with an initial conversion price set at 19.7 HKD per H share, representing a 7% premium over the previous trading day [8] - The financing is anticipated to enhance the company's international business, which has shown a revenue contribution of 14% in the first half of 2025, with expectations for further growth in mature and emerging markets [8] - The report highlights a favorable policy environment for domestic brokers to expand internationally, with regulatory encouragement for cross-border financial services [8] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts upward, expecting net profits of 17.1 billion, 20.1 billion, and 21 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 11%, 18%, and 4% [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to be 36.58 billion yuan in 2023, increasing to 41.47 billion yuan in 2024, followed by a decline to 35.23 billion yuan in 2025, and then recovering to 40.59 billion yuan in 2026 and 42.34 billion yuan in 2027 [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from 12.75 billion yuan in 2023 to 15.35 billion yuan in 2024, reaching 17.07 billion yuan in 2025, and further increasing to 20.13 billion yuan in 2026 and 20.99 billion yuan in 2027 [1] - The report indicates a decrease in the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from 15.41 in 2023 to 9.48 by 2027, suggesting an improving valuation over time [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth over 25 years, with expectations for acceleration in 2026. Revenue is projected to reach RMB 2,154 million in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.85% [1] - The company is focusing on internal improvements, external acquisitions, and the introduction of a new store model for its dumplings, which are expected to drive growth [8] - Profit margins are in line with expectations, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 13.2% in 2025, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from lower pork costs and improved capacity utilization [8] - The company is expected to scale its new store model in 2026, which has shown promising results in the market, and further acquisitions will enhance its revenue structure and risk resilience [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to be RMB 1,859 million in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 11.22%, and RMB 2,154 million in 2026, with a year-on-year increase of 15.85% [1][9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 273.06 million in 2025, a decrease of 1.28% year-on-year, and RMB 327.04 million in 2026, an increase of 19.77% [1][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be RMB 1.14 in 2025 and RMB 1.37 in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 27.29 and 22.78 [1][9]