证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-09-02 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观深度报告 20250901：补贴与竞争：哪些地区和行业内卷更严重？— —统一大市场系列研究之一 土地补贴和财税补贴是地方政府间横向竞争的工具。我们尝试量化产业 政策中土地和财税补贴的规模，并识别哪些地区和行业的税负率更低。土 地补贴方面，按照价差计算，2017-2024 年 70 城工业部门获得的土地补 贴年均 1.45 万亿，占全国 GDP 的 1.3%左右；财税补贴方面，按照与法 定税率的差距来算，2023 年制造业的企业所得税税收优惠约 7300 亿，占 GDP 的 0.56%。结合地区和行业来看，可以识别内卷程度，汽车制造业、 电气机械、电子设备等行业大多是中西部省份内卷更严重，存在利润率和 税负率双低的情况，具体见 2.2.4。近年来，面临房地产市场下行、"反内 卷"规范地方政府补贴、消费税改革等三大变革，传统的横向竞争模式正 在迎来转变，地方政府将从"逐底竞争"转向"逐顶竞争"。 风险提示： （1）房地产和土地市场变化，对地方政府行为影响较大，如果未来房地 产市场出现趋 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 18%, driven by the expansion of the industrial automation market, with significant growth in sales of DC motors and voice coil motors [2] - The company has established a solid technical barrier in precision motion control technology and is simultaneously advancing its business expansion and internationalization [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's revenue, net profit attributable to the parent company, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were CNY 124 million, CNY 20 million, and CNY 19 million, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 20%, 18%, and 32% [2] - The revenue for Q2 2025 was CNY 65 million, with a net profit of CNY 7 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 9% but a decline in net profit compared to the previous quarter [2] - The gross profit margin in H1 2025 decreased by 1.38 percentage points to 52.22%, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.12 percentage points to 15.84% [2] Product Performance - Revenue from the main products showed steady growth, with DC motors and voice coil motors experiencing remarkable increases of 211% and 51% year-on-year, respectively [2] - The revenue breakdown for H1 2025 included linear actuators, hybrid stepper motors, DC motors, voice coil motors, and other revenues, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 19%, 6%, 211%, 51%, and a decline of 21% [2] Technological Development and Internationalization - The company is focused on developing a comprehensive R&D platform for precision motion control products, including various specifications of frameless motors and low-voltage servo motors [3] - In March 2025, the company established a subsidiary in Thailand, expected to commence production within the year, and is building a global marketing network with successful sales progress in non-US markets [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - 9MW3811, an IL-11 monoclonal antibody developed by the company, is leading globally in clinical progress and has received clinical access in China, the US, and Australia, with completed Phase I trials showing good safety [2][17] - The company has licensed global development and commercialization rights for 9MW3811 (excluding Greater China) to Calico Life Sciences, receiving a non-refundable upfront payment of $25 million and potential milestone payments up to $571 million [2][36] - The market potential for treating pathological scars, including hypertrophic scars and keloids, is significant, with the US market projected to grow from $10.3 billion in 2020 to $12.3 billion in 2025, and further to $18.6 billion by 2030 [40][44] Summary by Sections 1. 9MW3811: Targeting Fibrosis and Aging - 9MW3811 effectively blocks the IL-11/IL-11Ra signaling pathway, addressing unmet needs in fibrosis and aging [2][3] - The mechanism of action for 9MW3811 is well-defined, targeting key aging markers and potentially improving metabolic function and chronic inflammation [3][18] - The product is positioned to address the urgent clinical needs in the pathological scar market, with a projected market size of $5.9 billion in China by 2030 [3][40] 2. Multiple Promising Pipeline Products - 9MW1911, a ST2 monoclonal antibody for COPD, is in Phase Ib/IIa trials with all 80 patients enrolled, aiming for efficacy data by the end of 2025 [4][49] - 9MW2821, a Nectin-4 ADC, is leading globally in clinical progress with promising efficacy data across multiple cancer types, including bladder and triple-negative breast cancer [4][55] - The company is developing additional ADCs and TCE platforms, enhancing its pipeline diversity and potential market impact [4][49] 3. Earnings Forecast and Investment Rating - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is maintained at approximately $1.11 billion, $1.24 billion, and $2.09 billion respectively, excluding unrecognized business development payments [5] - The report emphasizes the strong potential of the company's pipeline and maintains a "Buy" rating based on these projections [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal mining industry is entering the end of its peak season, leading to a slight decline in coal prices. The current price for port thermal coal is 690 CNY/ton, down 14 CNY/ton week-on-week. Supply remains stable while demand shows signs of weakness, resulting in a slight decrease in inventory levels [1][10] - The report suggests that the short-term outlook for coal prices will remain volatile due to the weakening demand from residential electricity consumption as the peak season concludes [1][37] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,857.93 points, down 0.66% week-on-week. The coal sector index closed at 2,626.05 points, down 4.15% [10] - The trading volume for the coal sector increased by 16.26% to 58.263 billion CNY [10] 2. Domestic Coal Prices - Domestic thermal coal prices have shown a mixed trend, with the price for 5500 kcal thermal coal in Datong decreasing by 22 CNY/ton to 544 CNY/ton, while prices in Inner Mongolia remained stable at 380 CNY/ton [16] - The port thermal coal price at Qinhuangdao decreased by 14 CNY/ton to 690 CNY/ton [16] 3. Inventory and Shipping - The average daily coal inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim increased by 5.93% to 1.8299 million tons, while the outflow also increased by 6.01% to 1.8967 million tons [29][32] - The inventory at the Bohai Rim ports decreased by 0.79% to 23.08 million tons [32] 4. Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the influx of insurance funds and suggests focusing on resource stocks, particularly recommending companies like Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy as elastic targets in the thermal coal sector [2][37]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" (maintained) [1] Core Views - In Q2 2025, the company's performance showed signs of recovery with a 12% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, despite a 7% decline in total revenue for the first half of the year [2][4] - The company is expected to benefit from the growth in deep-sea orders and the successful implementation of multi-directional forging projects, which will enhance its competitiveness in the oil and gas equipment sector [4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, total revenue was approximately 560 million yuan, showing a year-on-year stability, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 52 million yuan, down 7% year-on-year [2] - In Q2 2025, total revenue reached 290 million yuan, a 5.5% increase year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 30 million yuan, reflecting a 12% year-on-year growth [2] - The gross profit margin for Q2 2025 improved to 21.4%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased to 10.5%, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [3] Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued revenue growth driven by the increasing trend of deep-sea orders, although the realization of these orders may take longer due to extended delivery times [4] - The completion of the precision manufacturing project for key components in oil and gas equipment is expected to enhance the company's market position and open up new growth opportunities in automotive and specialized industries [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a projected revenue of 173.05 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.49% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 7.12 billion yuan in 2025, representing a growth of 6.47% year-on-year [1] - The company is diversifying its customer base, with 64% of its main business revenue coming from clients outside the SAIC Group [8] - The gross margin is on an upward trend, with a gross margin of 11.9% in Q2 2025, showing a recovery due to increased business scale [8] - The company is entering the solid-state battery sector by acquiring a 49% stake in SAIC Qingtao for 200 million yuan, enhancing its capabilities in electric drive and thermal management [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is reported at 168.59 billion yuan, with a slight increase to 168.85 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - The company’s net profit for 2023 is 7.21 billion yuan, with a forecasted increase to 7.12 billion yuan in 2025 [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 2.26 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.66 [1] - The company’s operating cash flow for the first half of 2025 reached 6.83 billion yuan, a 34.5% increase year-on-year [8]

Group 1: Subsidy Analysis - Land subsidies for the industrial sector in 70 cities averaged 1.45 trillion annually from 2017 to 2024, accounting for approximately 1.3% of national GDP[1] - In 2023, tax incentives for the manufacturing sector's corporate income tax were about 730 billion, representing 0.56% of GDP[1] - The average industrial land price in 2024 was 497 yuan per square meter, significantly lower than residential land prices, creating a price gap that benefits industrial sectors[1] Group 2: Tax Burden Disparities - In 2023, the lowest tax burdens were in Guangxi (8.5%), Fujian (8.6%), and Hunan (8.7%), while the highest were in Beijing (34.5%) and Shanghai (33.4%)[1] - The tax burden in the eastern region was 16.4%, higher than the central (10.7%), western (12.4%), and northeastern (12.7%) regions[1] - The manufacturing sector's tax burden was 16.8%, with high burdens in finance, real estate, and heavy industries[1] Group 3: Industry and Regional Insights - In 2023, the automotive manufacturing sector in Hebei had a profit margin of 1.9% and a tax burden of 2.7%, indicating potential internal competition issues[1] - The electrical machinery sector in Shaanxi had a profit margin of 2.3% and a tax burden of 1.8%, suggesting similar competitive pressures[1] - The electronic equipment sector in Anhui reported a profit margin of -0.6% and a tax burden of 1.1%, highlighting challenges in profitability[1] Group 4: Transition in Government Behavior - Local governments are shifting from "race to the bottom" competition, characterized by lowering costs, to "race to the top," focusing on improving the business environment and innovation[1] - This transition is driven by pressures from the real estate market, changes in industrial policy, and tax reforms aimed at optimizing consumption environments[1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Gas (01193.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's H1 2025 operating data fell short of expectations, with a revenue of HKD 49.79 billion, down 4.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of HKD 2.40 billion, down 30.5% year-on-year. The proposed interim dividend is HKD 0.30 per share, an increase of 20% year-on-year, with a payout ratio of 29% [7] - The decline in performance is attributed to a decrease in retail gas volume and a drop in income from comprehensive services and connections. The company anticipates low single-digit growth in retail gas volume for the full year 2025, with a slight increase in gross margin [7] - The company is managing capital expenditures and enhancing shareholder returns, with operating cash flow of HKD 3.01 billion in H1 2025 and a commitment to maintain or increase dividend payouts [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are HKD 101.27 billion, HKD 102.68 billion, HKD 92.87 billion, HKD 95.67 billion, and HKD 99.04 billion respectively, with a year-on-year change of 7.35%, 1.39%, -9.55%, 3.01%, and 3.53% [1] - The net profit forecasts for the same years are HKD 5.22 billion, HKD 4.09 billion, HKD 3.73 billion, HKD 3.97 billion, and HKD 4.29 billion, reflecting year-on-year changes of 10.36%, -21.74%, -8.82%, 6.59%, and 7.91% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2025E is projected at HKD 1.61, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.35, 11.59, and 10.74 for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [1][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's home textile business has shown a good recovery, while the furniture business still requires improvement [1] - The company is a leading player in the domestic home textile market, with a clear upward trend in its main business operations [7] - The online channel for home textiles has experienced significant growth, benefiting from national subsidy policies and successful large product strategies [7] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 2.181 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 185 million yuan, up 17.0% year-on-year [7] - The home textile segment generated revenue of 1.789 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.49%, while the U.S. furniture segment saw revenue decline to 392 million yuan, down 7.81% [7] - The gross profit margin increased to 47.82%, with a notable reduction in asset impairment losses contributing to profit growth despite rising expense ratios [7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders has been adjusted downwards for 2025 and 2026 to 495 million yuan and 554 million yuan, respectively, while the 2027 forecast has been increased to 609 million yuan [7] - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, with a projected P/E ratio of 14 for 2025, 13 for 2026, and 12 for 2027 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the securities industry [1]. Core Insights - The capital market continues to recover, with a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, up 51% year-on-year, leading to an upward revision of the annual profit forecast [1][8]. - The average daily trading volume of stock funds reached 15,703 billion yuan, a 63% increase year-on-year, indicating a robust market activity [1][13]. - The report highlights the strong performance of major securities firms, recommending companies such as CITIC Securities, China Galaxy, and Huatai Securities due to their competitive advantages in the current market environment [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The securities industry saw a 23% increase in revenue and a 40% increase in net profit in the first half of 2025, with 150 securities firms reporting a total revenue of 2,510 billion yuan [42]. - The average return on equity (ROE) for the first half of 2025 was 3.53%, an increase of 0.85 percentage points year-on-year [42]. - The average daily trading volume for stock funds was 15,703 billion yuan, reflecting a 63% year-on-year growth [13][19]. 2. Brokerage Business - Brokerage income for listed firms increased by 47% year-on-year, totaling 592 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [2]. - The commission rate decreased from 0.020% in 2024 to 0.019% in the first half of 2025, indicating a competitive pricing environment [2][44]. 3. Investment Banking - Investment banking revenue grew by 18% year-on-year, benefiting from a recovery in refinancing activities [2][29]. - A total of 51 IPOs were issued in the first half of 2025, raising 37.4 billion yuan, which represents a 15% increase in the number of IPOs and a 16% increase in funds raised compared to the previous year [22][29]. 4. Asset Management - Asset management income slightly declined by 3% year-on-year, with a total of 213 billion yuan reported [7]. - The total asset management scale for 34 firms with comparable data was 7.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a 2% year-on-year increase [7]. 5. Proprietary Trading - The net investment income for the first half of 2025 was 1,178 billion yuan, a 51% increase year-on-year, driven by favorable market conditions [7][34]. - The second quarter alone saw a net investment income of 671 billion yuan, marking a 53% year-on-year increase [7]. 6. Dividend Distribution - Mid-term cash dividends increased by 40% year-on-year, although the dividend payout ratio decreased by 3 percentage points [7][46]. - The average dividend yield for A-share listed securities firms was 1.30%, with Dongwu Securities having the highest yield at 3.1% [7]. 7. Profit Forecast - The report projects a 32% year-on-year increase in industry net profit for 2025, driven by active market trading and improved business conditions [8][19]. - The expected growth rates for various business segments include a 66% increase in brokerage income and an 18% increase in investment banking revenue [8].