证券研究报告·北交所报告·北交所定期报告 北交所定期报告 20260202 北交所 2025 年业绩预告点评：预增与预减幅 度同步扩大，关注行业分化下的结构性机会 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 预增平均幅度为 90%~124%，13 家实现扭亏，企业盈利修复动能较强。 截至 2026 年 1 月 31 日，共 122 家北交所公司披露 2025 年度业绩预告 公告（不含新股上市盈利预测中的预增），其中 39 家公司实现预增（预 增 26 家、扭亏 13 家），占发布业绩预告公司总数量的比重约 32%。2025 年北交所 13 家扭亏公司数量较 2024 年的 5 家明显增加，显示企业盈 利修复动能较强。从净利润同比增幅来看，2025 年北交所业绩预增平均 幅度为 90%~124%，亦较 2024 年预增幅度（78%~114%）明显提升。24 家预增公司中有 13 家预计净利润同比增幅超 100%，其中宏裕包材以 493%的同比增幅上限居于首位，其次是慧为智能和海能技术，同比增幅 上限分别为 436%和 237%。净利润规模方面，5 家公司预计 2025 年净 利润上限达到亿 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·建筑材料 建筑材料行业跟踪周报 地产链有望震荡向上 2026 年 02 月 02 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 黄诗涛 执业证书：S0600521120004 huangshitao@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石峰源 执业证书：S0600521120001 shify@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2025/2/5 2025/6/4 2025/10/1 2026/1/28 建筑材料 沪深300 相关研究 《继续看好地产链估值修复》 2026-01-26 《社融增速小幅回落，关注红利高股 息等方向》 2026-01-19 东吴证券研究所 1 / 19 ◼ 风险提示：地产信用风险失控、政策定力超预期。 东吴证券研究所 2 / 19 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 1、玻纤：（1）2025 年以来较强内需支撑下新增产能逐步消化，供给冲 击最大的阶段已经过去。行业盈利仍处历史低位，资本开支持续放缓， 中期新增产能有限。我们 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the utility sector [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the release of a notification regarding the improvement of the capacity price mechanism for power generation, increasing the coal power recovery ratio to 50%, enhancing revenue certainty [4] - It forecasts an addition of 315 GW of solar and 119 GW of wind power capacity in 2025, with a total installed capacity of 3.89 billion kW by the end of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.1% [4] - The average electricity purchase price in January 2026 decreased by 8% year-on-year [4] - The report emphasizes the need for investment in green energy, coal power, hydropower, nuclear power, and solar assets, recommending specific companies for investment [4] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The report notes a stable growth in electricity consumption, with a total of 9.46 trillion kWh from January to November 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [13] - Cumulative power generation in 2025 reached 9.72 trillion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 2.2% [23] - The report tracks the average electricity purchase price, which was 374 RMB/MWh in January 2026, down 8% from the previous year [38] Power Generation - The report indicates that coal prices at Qinhuangdao port were 692 RMB/ton as of January 30, 2026, showing a year-on-year decrease of 8.1% [44] - The inflow and outflow rates at the Three Gorges Reservoir were 7460 m³/s and 9230 m³/s respectively, with year-on-year increases of 65.8% and 11.7% [51] - The report highlights the significant growth in renewable energy, with solar and wind power installations increasing by 315 GW and 119 GW respectively in 2025 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on green energy investments, with specific recommendations for companies such as Longyuan Power, China Nuclear Power, and others in the renewable sector [4] - It also emphasizes the transformation potential in coal power and the benefits of hydropower due to low costs and strong cash flow [4]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·建筑材料 建筑材料行业跟踪周报 地产链有望震荡向上 2026 年 02 月 02 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 黄诗涛 执业证书：S0600521120004 huangshitao@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石峰源 执业证书：S0600521120001 shify@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2025/2/5 2025/6/4 2025/10/1 2026/1/28 建筑材料 沪深300 相关研究 《继续看好地产链估值修复》 2026-01-26 《社融增速小幅回落，关注红利高股 息等方向》 2026-01-19 东吴证券研究所 1 / 19 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周（2026.1.23–2026.1.30，下同）：本周建筑材料板块（SW）涨跌幅 0.73%，同期沪深 300、万得全 A 指数涨跌幅分别为 0.08%、-1.59%，超 额收益分别为 0.65%、2.32%。 ◼ 大宗建材基本面与高 ...

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report highlights that the recent volatility in gold and silver prices is primarily driven by market momentum reversals, with silver attracting high leverage and speculative funds since November 2025 [2][5] - The report anticipates that after the appointment of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, there will be more interest rate cuts than the market expects, with short-term U.S. Treasury yields likely to decline [2][4] - The report notes that the recent decline in the manufacturing PMI does not indicate a weakening economy, as it reflects a temporary fluctuation rather than a downward trend [10] Group 2: Commodity Market Analysis - The report indicates that the recent crash in silver prices has led to liquidity risks that may spread to other commodities, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector [5][6] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the support levels for gold prices, particularly the 60-day moving average, which is currently at $4,400 per ounce [5] - The report suggests that the Shanghai Futures Exchange has implemented measures to manage the risk of a one-sided market in silver futures [5] Group 3: Equity Market Outlook - The report predicts a rebound in the A-share market following the Spring Festival, driven by positive sentiment from performance forecasts and new developments in sectors like AI applications and commercial aerospace [6][10] - It advises a balanced ETF allocation in domestic equities, reflecting a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the market [11] Group 4: Bond Market Perspective - The report notes that the bond market is expected to see increased buying activity due to risk aversion and expectations of monetary easing, with 10-year yields projected to decline to around 1.80% [7][10] - It highlights that the recent adjustments in risk appetite have created trading opportunities in government bonds as a hedge against stock market volatility [4][7]

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 金融产品深度报告 20260202 恒生科技 ETF，2026 年 1 月复盘及 2026 年 2 月展望 [Table_Summary] ◼ 市场表现回顾： ◼ 事件驱动盘点： ◼ 指数后市展望： ◼ 风险提示： 1)行业政策或监管环境突变；2)宏观经济不及预期；3)发生重大预期外的事 件。 2026 年 02 月 02 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 唐遥衎 执业证书：S0600524120016 tangyk@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《金银暴跌后，沃什交易的误区何时 逆转？——海外宏观与交易复盘 》 2026-02-01 《春节错位对经济数据读数造成扰 动》 | 1. 市场表现回顾 | 4 | | --- | --- | | | 1.1. 走势复盘 4 | | | 1.2. 估值分析 5 | | | 1.3. 技术分析 6 | | 2. 事件驱动 | 7 | | | 2.1. 宏观层面 7 | | | 2.2. 政策层面 11 | | | 2.3. 行业动态 12 | | 3. ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 ◼ 市场表现回顾： ◼ 事件驱动盘点： ◼ 指数后市展望： ◼ 风险提示： 1)行业政策或监管环境突变；2)宏观经济不及预期；3)发生重大预期外的事 件。 金融产品深度报告 20260202 纳斯达克 100ETF，1 月复盘与 2 月展望 2026 年 02 月 02 日 [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 唐遥衎 执业证书：S0600524120016 tangyk@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 2026-02-01 东吴证券研究所 1 / 19 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 走势复盘：2026 年 1 月，纳斯达克 100 指数月度上涨 1.20%，整体震荡 向上。上旬弱经济数据强化宽松预期，推动指数上行；中旬因 PPI 超预 期、鲍威尔遭调查及特朗普地缘言论等风险集中爆发，引发指数调整； 下旬政治危机缓和，财报季验证 AI 与半导体需求强劲，但高位 PPI 及 特朗普提名鹰派美联储主席候选人重燃政策疑虑，导致指数回调。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant drop in US gas prices due to the retreat of cold weather, while European and domestic gas prices remain relatively stable [4][9] - It emphasizes the ongoing supply-demand dynamics, with US gas storage levels showing a year-on-year increase of 9.8% despite a week-on-week decrease of 2420 billion cubic feet [16] - The report notes that domestic gas prices have increased by 1.3% week-on-week, driven by rising import prices [26] Price Tracking - As of January 30, 2026, the week-on-week changes in gas prices are as follows: US HH down 74.4%, European TTF up 0.9%, East Asia JKM up 2.1%, China LNG ex-factory price up 1.3%, and China LNG CIF price up 6.5% [4][9] - The report provides detailed price comparisons, indicating that the domestic LNG ex-factory price is 4045 RMB/ton, while the CIF price is 4433 RMB/ton [14] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report indicates that European gas consumption for the first ten months of 2025 was 349.5 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [17] - It also notes that European gas supply decreased by 6.9% week-on-week, with a significant drop in supply from inventory [17] - Domestic gas consumption for 2025 is projected to be 433.2 billion cubic meters, with production increasing by 6.3% year-on-year [26] Pricing Mechanism Progress - The report states that 68% of cities have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an average increase of 0.22 RMB/cubic meter [40] - It highlights that there is still a 10% room for price adjustment in the gas distribution sector [40] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing pricing adjustments, such as Xin'ao Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy [52] - It suggests monitoring companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible scheduling capabilities, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xin'ao Shares [52] - The report emphasizes the importance of energy independence and recommends companies with gas production capabilities like Shouhua Gas [52]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" investment rating for the computer industry [1] Core Insights - Cloud service providers like Google Cloud and Amazon Web Services have announced price increases, marking a significant shift in the market [5][10] - The demand for AI Agents is accelerating, with notable growth in applications and user engagement [11][13] - Supply-side pressures are leading to rising hardware costs, including storage and CPU prices [16] - The report suggests that the upcoming Chinese New Year will boost domestic AI application demand, potentially leading to further price increases in cloud services [17] Summary by Sections Price Increases by Major Cloud Providers - Google Cloud announced price hikes effective May 1, 2026, with data transfer costs in North America increasing from $0.04/GB to $0.08/GB (100% increase), Europe from $0.05/GB to $0.08/GB (60% increase), and Asia from $0.06/GB to $0.085/GB (42% increase) [10] - Amazon Web Services raised prices for its EC2 machine learning capacity blocks by approximately 15% [10] Demand Side: Acceleration of AI Agent Adoption - The rapid growth of AI Agents is exemplified by the success of Moltclaw, which has seen exponential user growth [11] - Google has integrated its Gemini 3 into Chrome, transforming it into a comprehensive AGI platform for 3.8 billion users [13] Supply Side: Hardware Price Increases - Storage prices are expected to rise by 40% to 50% in Q1 2026 and by about 20% in Q2 2026 [16] - Intel and AMD plan to increase server CPU prices by 10-15% due to high demand and limited supply [16] - Prices for G.652.D optical fibers in China have surged by approximately 80% compared to November 2025, with some prices exceeding 50 yuan per core kilometer [16] Investment Recommendations - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in the AI cloud industry, particularly as hardware costs rise and demand for AI applications increases [17] - Recommended companies include cloud service providers like Wangsu Science and Technology, Yike Technology, and Alibaba, as well as CPU manufacturers like Lianqi Technology and Longxin Zhongke [18][19][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" investment rating for the computer industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that major cloud providers like Google and Amazon have begun to raise prices, indicating a shift in the market dynamics [5][10] - The demand for AI Agents is accelerating, with significant growth in user engagement and application development [11][13] - Supply-side pressures are leading to price increases in hardware components, including storage and CPUs, which are expected to continue into 2026 [16] Summary by Sections Price Increases by Major Cloud Providers - Google Cloud announced a price increase effective May 1, 2026, with data transmission costs in North America rising from $0.04/GB to $0.08/GB (100% increase), Europe from $0.05/GB to $0.08/GB (60% increase), and Asia from $0.06/GB to $0.085/GB (approximately 42% increase) [10] - Amazon Web Services (AWS) raised prices for its EC2 machine learning capacity blocks by about 15%, with specific instance costs increasing from $34.61 to $39.80 per hour [10] Demand Side: Acceleration of AI Agent Deployment - The report notes the rapid growth of AI Agents, particularly with the success of Moltclaw, which has seen exponential user growth [11] - Google's integration of Gemini 3 into Chrome browsers signifies a major advancement, potentially transforming 3.8 billion users' browsers into comprehensive AGI access points [13] Supply Side: Hardware Price Increases - Storage prices are projected to rise by 40% to 50% in Q1 2026 and by approximately 20% in Q2 2026, as per Counterpoint Research [16] - Intel and AMD are expected to increase server CPU prices by 10-15% due to high demand and limited supply [16] - Fiber optic prices in China have surged by approximately 80% compared to November 2025, with some prices exceeding 50 yuan per core kilometer [16] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that rising hardware costs combined with increasing demand for AI applications present significant investment opportunities in the AI cloud industry [17] - Recommended investment targets include computing rental firms like Hongjing Technology and cloud service providers such as Wangsu Technology and Alibaba [18][19]