能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 能源化工研究助理：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600123070007 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年7月6日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 证券研究报告 原油周报：OPEC+或将在八月继续增产 ◼ 【美国原油】 2 ◼ 1）原油价格：原油价格：本周Brent/WTI原油期货周均价分别68.2/66.3美元/桶，较上周分别-0.2/+0.6美元/桶。 ◼ 2）原油库存：美国原油总库存、商业原油库存、战略原油库存、库欣原油库存分别8.2/4.2/4.0/0.2亿桶，环比 +408/+385/+24/-149万桶。 ◼ 3）原油产量：美国原油产量为1343万桶/天，环比0万桶/天。美国活跃原油钻机本周425台，环比-7台。美国活跃压裂 车队本周179部，环比-3部。 ◼ 4）原油需求：美国炼厂原油加工量为1711万桶/天，环比+12万桶/天；美国炼厂原油开工率为94.9%，环比+0.2pct。 ◼ 5）原油进出口量：美国原油进口量、出口量、净 ...

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20250706 关于 25 年下半年转债策略的三点思考 2025 年 07 月 06 日 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 陈伯铭 执业证书：S0600523020002 chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《日本居民财富配置 30 年变迁—低 利率时代系列（六）》 2025-07-03 《利柏转债：工业模块化制造龙头》 2025-07-03 [Table_Summary] ◼ 上周（0630－0704）海外避险情绪整体回落，美债跌美股涨，其中科技 股由于盈利预期改善领涨，外围以伊冲突止战、美越贸易协议达成，越 南全方面对美国开放市场，存在一定示范效应，市场信心得到提振；同 时 6 月非农数据虽然不及预期，但市场增加年内联储降息押注， fedwatch 显示目前 7 月降息概率升至 27.4%，9 月降息概率高达 78%。 美债收益率整体仍在寻找趋势，继上上周波段下探后，上周受避险情绪 整体回落影响，转而上行，我们仍认为美债仍存在较强配置吸引力，期 限上 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [1] Core Insights - The PD1/VEGF dual antibody is leading the next generation of immuno-oncology (IO) treatments, with significant attention on companies like Kangfang Biopharma and Shenzhou Cell [5][6] - The report highlights the approval of the first domestic recombinant human coagulation factor VIIa by Zhengda Tianqing, marking a significant milestone in the industry [2] - The report suggests a ranking of favored sub-industries: innovative drugs > research services > CXO > traditional Chinese medicine > medical devices > pharmacies [3][12] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The A-share pharmaceutical index has increased by 3.9% this week and 10% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 by 3.0% and 8.9% respectively [6][11] - The H-share biotechnology index has seen a rise of 5.0% this week and 62% year-to-date, outperforming the Hang Seng Technology Index by 7.3% and 44% respectively [6][11] R&D Progress and Company Dynamics - The report details the significant advancements in innovative drugs, including the initiation of Phase III clinical trials for HER2 dual antibodies by Zhengda Tianqing [2] - It emphasizes the competitive edge of PD1/VEGF dual antibodies, particularly the success of Kangfang Biopharma's Ivosidenib in clinical trials against the leading PD-1 inhibitor, Pembrolizumab [17][23] Market Insights - The report notes that the pharmaceutical sector has shown strong performance, particularly in innovative drugs, with significant gains in stock prices for companies like Saily Medical (+55%) and Shenzhou Cell (+47%) [6][11] - The report also highlights the performance of various sub-sectors, with chemical drugs and biological products showing substantial price increases [6][11] Specific Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Shenzhou Cell, Huahai Pharmaceutical, and Rongchang Biopharma from the perspective of PD1/VEGF dual antibodies [3][12] - It also suggests looking at companies with strong growth potential like Borui Pharmaceutical and Innovent Biologics, as well as those with low valuations such as Zhaoli Pharmaceutical and Dong'e Ejiao [3][12]

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20250706 周观：央行买卖国债公告落地，债市仍震荡 （2025 年第 26 期） [Table_Summary] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 央行 6 月买卖国债公告落地，如何看待后续流动性和债市运行空间？ ◼ A：本周（2025.6.30-2025.7.4），10 年期国债活跃券收益率从上周五的 1.646%下行 0.5bp 至 1.641%。 周度复盘：周一（6.30），早盘受前一周周五货政委员会一季度例会中， 对货币政策的定调边际紧缩的影响，收益率有所上行。随后 6 月 PMI 公 布，环比上升 0.2 个百分点至 49.7%，仍位于荣枯线之下，该数据符合 市场预期，未对债市造成过多影响。尾盘市场对于月末的央行买债公告 有所期待，收益率迅速下行，全天 10 年期国债活跃券收益率上行 0.3bp。 周二（7.1），跨月后资金面重回宽松，早盘收益率下行。临近尾盘，公 告周五即将发行的国债缩量，7Y 国债的发行规模由上一期的 1700 亿元 下降至 1090 亿元，10Y 国债的发行规模由上一期的 1700 亿元下降至 1310 亿元，对债市构成 ...

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收点评 固收点评 20250706 二级资本债周度数据跟踪 （20250630-20250704） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 一级市场发行与存量情况： 本周（20250630-20250704）银行间市场及交易所市场无新发行二级资本 债。 截至 2025 年 7 月 4 日，二级资本债存量余额达 46,008.35 亿元，较上周 末（20250620）减少 516.0 亿元。 ◼ 二级市场成交情况： 本周（20250630-20250704）二级资本债周成交量合计约 1916 亿元，较 上周减少 74 亿元，成交量前三个券分别为 25 农行二级资本债 01A（BC） （193.27 亿元）、25 中行二级资本债 BC（119.50 亿元）和 25 工行二级 资本债 01BC（63.60 亿元）。 分发行主体地域来看，成交量前三为北京市、上海市和浙江省，分别约 为 1357 亿元、132 亿元和 87 亿元。 从到期收益率角度来看，截至 7 月 4 日，5Y 二级资本债中评级 AAA-、 AA+、AA 级到期收益率较上周涨跌幅分别为：-0.06B ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·非银金融 非银金融行业跟踪周报 继续看好保险股估值修复；期待非银中报较 好表现 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 07 月 06 日 证券分析师 孙婷 东吴证券研究所 1 / 15 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 罗宇康 执业证书：S0600123090002 luoyk@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -7% 1% 9% 17% 25% 33% 41% 49% 57% 65% 2024/7/8 2024/11/5 2025/3/5 2025/7/3 非银金融 沪深300 相关研究 《权益 ETF 系列：行情轮动较快，存 在结构性机会》 2025-07-06 《2025 年 7 月大类资产配置展望》 2025-07-03 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 非银行金融子行业近期表现：最近 5 个交易日（2025 年 06 月 30 日-2025 年 07 月 04 日）非银金融板块各子行业中仅保险行业跑赢沪深 300 指 数。保险行业上涨 1.73%，证券行业下跌 0 ...

证券研究报告 高切低轮动，继续关注深海、脑机和消费电子 ——每周主题、产业趋势交易复盘和展望 证券分析师：陈刚 执业证书编号：S0600523040001 邮箱：cheng@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理：孔思迈 执业证书编号：S0600124070019 邮箱：kongsm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年7月6日 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与产业或交易热点有关联，所引述资讯/数据/观点仅以展示为目的，不构成投资建议，个股层面请参照东吴证券研究所各行业组所推荐标的。 2、产业趋势交易回顾与展望 3、风险提示 2 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与产业或交易热点有关联，所引述资讯/数据/观点仅以展示为目的，不构成投资建议，个股层面请参照东吴证券研究所各行业组所推荐标的。 1. 本周市场回顾 目录 1、本周市场回顾 注：本周交易日为6月30日-7月4日 （如无特殊说明）后文同 3 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与产业或交易热点有关联，所引述资讯/数据/观点仅以展示为目的，不构成投资建议，个股层面请参照东吴证券研究所各行业组所推荐标的。 一：大盘表现 4 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与产业或交易热 ...

Core Insights - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address the current macroeconomic contradictions and the "prisoner's dilemma" of chaotic competition in industries, emphasizing the need for improved resource allocation efficiency and product quality enhancement [2][4] - The policy is expected to have a more significant impact on emerging industries facing overcapacity, such as photovoltaics and new energy vehicles, compared to traditional industries that have already undergone some consolidation [4][10] Industry Analysis - Since 2020, emerging manufacturing sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics have rapidly developed, leading to significant supply-side homogeneity and price declines, with prices for photovoltaic materials dropping nearly 90% since 2023 [4][9] - The traditional industries, such as steel and cement, have seen improved profitability and price levels compared to ten years ago, indicating that the marginal effects of the "anti-involution" policy on these sectors may be less pronounced than during the previous supply-side reforms [4][10] - The report highlights that the current economic environment and the structure of industries have evolved, making the sectors affected by overcapacity different from those ten years ago, with the focus now on new emerging industries [5][10] Policy Implications - The "anti-involution" measures are expected to be more moderate compared to the previous supply-side reforms, focusing on guiding and regulating rather than enforcing strict capacity reductions [7][8] - The government has emphasized the importance of balancing "anti-involution" efforts with employment stability, indicating that the approach may prioritize positive guidance over aggressive capacity cuts [8][10] - Recent meetings and initiatives from government bodies indicate a strong commitment to addressing low-price competition in emerging sectors, with significant actions already taken by leading companies in the photovoltaic and automotive industries [9][29] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as the photovoltaic supply chain, lithium battery industry, and traditional industries like steel and cement that are experiencing overcapacity [11] - Specific recommendations include prioritizing leading companies in the photovoltaic sector, energy storage, and new energy vehicles, as well as traditional industries that have shown resilience and improved profitability [11][29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Accumulate" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that port coal inventories are continuously decreasing, and the coal prices are expected to rise as the peak season approaches, despite current weak industrial electricity demand limiting upward momentum [1][2] - The average daily coal inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim increased by 4.87% week-on-week, while the average daily outflow decreased by 2.68%, indicating a mixed demand-supply scenario [1][30] - The report highlights that the current coal prices are influenced by high inventory levels and weak industrial electricity demand, but with the onset of high temperatures, there is potential for further price increases [1] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.81% to 3472.32 points, while the coal sector index increased by 1.26% to 2580.17 points [10] - The trading volume for the coal sector reached 37.196 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 8.96% [10] 2. Coal Prices - Port coal prices increased by 3 yuan/ton week-on-week, reaching 623 yuan/ton [17] - The average price of coal at production sites remained stable, with specific prices reported for different grades of coal [17] 3. Inventory and Shipping - The inventory at the Bohai Rim ports decreased by 3.21% to 27.33 million tons, indicating a downward trend towards historical normal levels [1][33] - The average daily number of anchored vessels in the Bohai Rim ports decreased by 1.01% [33] 4. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on resource stocks, particularly recommending companies like Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy as elastic targets in the coal sector [2][38]

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·汽车(HS) 小鹏汽车-W（09868.HK） 小鹏 G7 上市点评：辅助驾驶进入 L3 级算力 时代，本地端 VLA+VLM 能力再进阶 买入（维持） 证券分析师 黄细里 执业证书：S0600520010001 021-60199793 huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 股价走势 -17% 6% 29% 52% 75% 98% 121% 144% 167% 190% 2024/7/4 2024/11/2 2025/3/3 2025/7/2 小鹏汽车-W 恒生指数 市场数据 | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 30,676 | 40,866 | 94,687 | 167,573 | 249,073 | | 同比(%) | 14.23 | 33.22 | 131.70 | 76.97 | 48.64 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (10,375.78) | (5,790.26) ...