证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·燃气Ⅱ 燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报 天气转冷&库存下降美国气价上涨、库存提 取欧洲气价下行 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 风险提示：经济增速不及预期、极端天气、国际局势变化、安全经营风险。 2025 年 12 月 01 日 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 谷玥 执业证书：S0600524090002 guy@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -15% -12% -9% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% 2024/12/2 2025/4/1 2025/7/30 2025/11/27 燃气Ⅱ 沪深300 相关研究 《降温将至美国气价上涨、库存提取 欧洲气价下行》 2025-11-24 《降温预期消化，美国气价回落、欧 洲&中国气价微降》 2025-11-17 东吴证券研究所 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 价格跟踪：天气转冷&库存下降美国气价上涨、库存提取欧洲气价下行。截 至 2025/11/ ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report focuses on utilizing technical indicators based on volume and price data to adjust positions in indices for excess returns [3][8] - A total of 27 technical indicators were constructed and tested across three major indices: CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, as well as 31 industry indices [3][8] - The average excess annualized return from the technical indicators based on the concept of volume-price divergence reached 3.75% across 34 indices [3][8] Group 2: Latest Performance Statistics - The 5-signal strategy performed well, achieving an annualized return of 2.54% on the CSI 1000 index, with an excess annualized return of 11.27% [3][9] - The rolling strategies showed that the rolling steady strategy could achieve an average excess annualized return of 3.99% when the adjustment frequency is reduced to T+10 [3][9] - The report indicates that the rolling steady strategy is suitable for low-risk investors, while the rolling chasing strategy is more appropriate for high-risk investors [3][9] Group 3: Latest Holdings and Signal Judgments - As of early December, the CSI 300 had 7 indicators signaling bullish trends and 16 indicators signaling a reduction in positions, with the optimal single indicator maintaining its signal [12][13] - The CSI 500 had 7 bullish signals and 16 reduction signals, with the optimal single indicator signaling bearish trends [12][13] - The CSI 1000 had 8 bullish signals and 15 reduction signals, with the optimal single indicator also signaling bearish trends [12][13]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Style Rotation Model **Model Construction Idea**: The model is built from basic style factors such as valuation, market capitalization, volatility, and momentum. It incorporates a style timing and scoring system, leveraging micro-level features and machine learning techniques to optimize style selection and rotation[4][9]. **Model Construction Process**: 1. Start with 80 fundamental micro factors as raw features, categorized based on the proprietary multi-factor system of Dongwu Securities[9]. 2. Construct 640 micro-level features from these factors[4][9]. 3. Replace the absolute proportion division of style factors with commonly used indices as style stock pools, creating new style returns as labels[4][9]. 4. Use a rolling training process with a Random Forest model to avoid overfitting, select optimal features, and generate style recommendations[4][9]. 5. Combine style timing results and scoring outcomes to build a monthly frequency style rotation framework[4][9]. **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively integrates micro-level features and machine learning to enhance style rotation performance, mitigating overfitting risks[4][9]. Model Backtesting Results - **Style Rotation Model**: - Annualized Return: 16.52% - Annualized Volatility: 20.46% - IR: 0.81 - Monthly Win Rate: 57.01% - Maximum Drawdown: 25.68% - Excess Annualized Return (Hedged against Benchmark): 11.04% - Excess Annualized Volatility (Hedged against Benchmark): 11.08% - Excess IR (Hedged against Benchmark): 1.00 - Excess Monthly Win Rate (Hedged against Benchmark): 55.14% - Maximum Drawdown (Hedged against Benchmark): 9.00%[4][10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry [1] Core Insights - In October 2025, the premium income for life insurance companies decreased, but the pre-sale for the "opening red" period is progressing steadily, indicating a positive outlook for new policy premium growth [5] - The total original premium for life insurance from January to October 2025 reached 425.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, while the scale premium was 480.10 billion yuan, up 8.8% year-on-year [5] - The report anticipates that market demand remains strong, with the attractiveness of insurance products still evident compared to bank deposits, supporting optimistic expectations for new policy premium growth [5] Summary by Sections Life Insurance - In October 2025, the original premium scale for life insurance companies was 149.1 billion yuan, down 4.6% year-on-year, with the decline attributed to companies focusing on preparations for the 2026 "opening red" period [5] - The new investment contributions from policyholders increased by 2% year-on-year, with unit-linked insurance seeing a 17% increase [5] Health Insurance - Health insurance premiums in October 2025 increased by 0.5% year-on-year, with a total year-to-date increase of 2.3% [5] - The report notes that the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission's recent guidelines are expected to stimulate growth in the health insurance market [5] Property Insurance - Property insurance premiums in October 2025 decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, with both auto and non-auto insurance experiencing declines [5] - The report highlights that the growth in auto insurance premiums is expected to be supported by the increasing penetration of new energy vehicles [5] Financial Performance - The report indicates that both liabilities and assets are continuously improving, with significant upward potential in valuations [5] - The estimated valuation for the insurance sector as of November 28, 2025, is between 0.55-0.94 times PEV and 1.07-2.00 times PB, which is considered historically low [5]

◼ 2025 年 12 月最新持仓行业为：医药生物、交通运输、银行、非银金融、 机械设备。 证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20251201 从微观出发的五维行业轮动月度跟踪 202512 2025 年 12 月 01 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 报告要点 证券分析师 高子剑 执业证书：S0600518010001 021-60199793 gaozj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 凌志杰 执业证书：S0600525040007 lingzhj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《从微观出发的五维行业轮动月度跟 踪 202511》 2025-11-03 东吴证券研究所 1 / 8 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 模型多空对冲绩效：以 2015/01/01-2025/11/30 为回测区间，五维行业轮 动模型在申万一级行业中，六分组多空对冲的年化收益率为 21.31%，年 化波动率为 10.79%，信息比率为 1.98，月度胜率为 72.80%，历史最大 回撤为 13.30%；多头对冲全市场行业等权组合的年化收益率为 10.48%， 年化波动率为 ...

证券研究报告 汽车周观点： Robotaxi落地加速，继续看好汽车板块 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 2025年12月1日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 核心结论 注：若无特殊说明，"本周"均代表2025.11.17-2025.11.23 2 ◼ 本周细分板块涨跌幅排序：SＷ汽车零部件(+3.7%) >SW汽车（+3.2%）>SW商用 载客车(+3.0%) >SW乘用车(+2.6%) > SW商用载货车(+1.5%) 。本周已覆盖标的广 汽集团、瑞玛精密、金龙汽车、零跑汽车、岱美股份涨幅前五。 （ ◼ 本周团队研究成果：外发客车、重卡11月月报，外发理想汽车汽车三季报点评。 ◼ 本周行业核心变化：1）小马智行发布Q3财报：城市级单车盈利转正，Robotaxi千 台目标将提前完成，明年规模扩至3000辆；2）文远知行发布Q3财报：季度营收同 比增长144.3%，Robotaxi营收同比增长761.0%；3）星途ET5首搭地平线HSD，11 月28日全球上市；4）理想汽车2025Q3交付量93211辆，总收入273.6亿，同 ...

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint indicates that in 2026, China's economy is expected to grow steadily, with inflation gradually improving and corporate profits likely to continue rising after a turning point in 2025. Global liquidity is anticipated to remain loose, and the relationship between China and the US may stabilize in the short term but could experience increased volatility in the long term. The AI industry trend is expected to drive changes in both upstream supply and downstream demand within the technology-related industrial chain [1][7]. - The overall preference ranking for major asset classes is stocks > commodities (industrial products) > gold > exchange rates > bonds [1][7]. - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 predicts a 4.9% growth in China's economy, with investment recovery and a slight increase in CPI by 0.5% while PPI is expected to decline by 0.9% [1][7]. Fixed Income Strategy - The credit bond market is characterized by both opportunities and risks in supply and demand, with three main strategies focusing on liquidity, the pace of economic recovery, and regulatory policy changes [2][9]. - The strategy suggests a defensive approach with a focus on short to medium-term credit bonds while selectively engaging in long-term bonds for potential trading opportunities [2][9]. - The city investment bond sector is expected to maintain a "zero tolerance" regulatory stance, with ongoing adjustments to meet new development models, leading to a tight balance in financing [2][9]. Industry Insights Starry Technology (星宸科技) - Starry Technology is a leading global smart security chip company, focusing on the development and sales of smart security chips across three main areas: smart security, smart IoT, and smart automotive [11]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 2.354 billion yuan and a net profit of 256 million yuan in 2024, with a research and development expense ratio of 25.59% and a gross margin of 35.79% [11]. - Starry Technology holds a leading market share in IPC SoC and NVR SoC, with respective market shares of 36.5% and 38.7% in 2021 [11]. Zhongli Co., Ltd. (中力股份) - Zhongli Co., Ltd. is a global leader in electric forklifts, focusing on the green and intelligent development of material handling [12]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 910 million yuan, 1 billion yuan, and 1.13 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 16, 15, and 13 times [12][13]. - The company benefits from the industry's electrification trend and is well-positioned for growth in the context of automation and intelligent logistics solutions [12][13]. Suzhou Keda (苏州科达) - Suzhou Keda is actively expanding its overseas market presence, particularly in line with the Belt and Road Initiative, and is involved in various international safety and information projects [14]. - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance its product offerings, including smart video surveillance and communication systems [14]. - Despite short-term pressures on performance, the company is expected to recover as it capitalizes on AI integration and overseas expansion [14]. Sutech (速腾聚创) - Sutech has shown significant improvement in gross margins, particularly in its robotics segment, which is expected to enter a high-growth phase [15][16]. - The company reported a revenue of 4.07 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a notable increase in sales from its robotics products [15][16]. - The focus on product iteration and market expansion positions Sutech for long-term growth potential in the robotics industry [15][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [1]. Core Views - The company reported FY26H1 results that met expectations, with revenue of 89.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, and a net profit of 11.89 billion yuan, up 5.3% year-on-year. The interim dividend declared is 0.063 HKD per share [7]. - The main brand, Bosideng, showed steady growth with a revenue of 57.19 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.3% year-on-year increase, while the overall brand down jacket business accounted for 73.6% of total revenue [7]. - The report anticipates that the cold winter and extended Spring Festival sales will drive performance in the second half of the fiscal year, supporting high-quality growth in earnings [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2024A at 23,214 million yuan, 2025A at 25,902 million yuan, 2026E at 28,512 million yuan, 2027E at 31,420 million yuan, and 2028E at 34,626 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 38.39%, 11.58%, 10.08%, 10.20%, and 10.20% respectively [1]. - Net profit forecasts are: 2024A at 3,074 million yuan, 2025A at 3,514 million yuan, 2026E at 3,938 million yuan, 2027E at 4,393 million yuan, and 2028E at 4,897 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 43.74%, 14.31%, 12.06%, 11.57%, and 11.45% respectively [1]. - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.26 yuan for 2024A, increasing to 0.42 yuan by 2028E [1]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing its brand, products, and channels to sustain high-quality growth, with a net increase of 88 retail outlets in the down jacket business, bringing the total to 3,558 [7]. - The OEM business saw a decline in revenue due to order front-loading, while the women's clothing segment experienced a strategic contraction, closing inefficient stores and focusing on core categories [7]. Profitability and Efficiency - The gross margin for FY26H1 was 50.0%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the higher revenue share from the high-margin down jacket business [7]. - The report highlights improvements in inventory turnover days, which decreased by 11 days to 178 days, indicating better inventory management and preparation for peak sales [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail trade industry, particularly focusing on the gold and jewelry sector [1]. Core Insights - The demand for gold and jewelry is expected to recover significantly, driven by a stable increase in gold prices since 2025 and a rebound in overall consumer spending [1][14]. - Major listed companies in the gold and jewelry sector are currently valued at historically low levels, with strong cash flow quality and dividend capabilities, making them attractive investment opportunities [1][14]. - Key recommended stocks include Zhou Dasheng, Lao Fengxiang, Chao Hong Ji, Cai Bai Co., China Gold, and Hong Kong stocks such as Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook Holdings [1][14]. Summary by Sections Industry Viewpoint - The report highlights the significant recovery in the performance of leading Hong Kong gold and jewelry companies, Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook Holdings, in FY26H1, with Chow Tai Fook reporting revenue of HKD 38.986 billion (down 1.1% YoY) and net profit of HKD 2.534 billion (up 0.1% YoY) [5][10]. - Luk Fook Holdings achieved revenue of HKD 6.843 billion (up 25.6% YoY) and net profit of HKD 619 million (up 42.52% YoY) in the same period [5][10]. - The same-store sales for both companies in mainland China showed significant recovery, with Chow Tai Fook's same-store sales up 2.6% YoY in FY26H1 [11]. Profitability - The increase in gold prices and adjustments in product mix have positively impacted profitability, with Chow Tai Fook maintaining a gross margin of 30.5% and Luk Fook achieving a record high gross margin of 34.7% [12][12]. - Both companies have shown improvements in their expense ratios, contributing to enhanced profitability [12]. Market Trends - The report notes that the gold price has been on a stable upward trend since 2025, which consumers have adapted to, leading to an anticipated rapid release of terminal consumption demand in 2026 [14]. - The report emphasizes that the tax reform in November is expected to benefit compliant gold and jewelry brands by increasing market concentration [14].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 49.95%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.86%, down 0.01 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for November is 49.96%, down 0.04 percentage points from October, and the demand index is 49.88%, down 0.02 percentage points[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.87%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, and the consumption index is at 49.65%, also down 0.01 percentage points[6] Group 2: Real Estate and Consumption - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities fell by 31.7% year-on-year as of November 29, indicating continued weakness in real estate sales[7] - Passenger car sales averaged 71,131 units per day in the week ending November 23, down 4,871 units year-on-year, with total retail sales of 1.384 million units in November, a decline of 11.0% year-on-year[22] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a plan on November 26 to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand for consumer goods, aiming to promote consumption growth[7] Group 3: Export and Trade - The new export orders index in the November PMI rose by 1.7 percentage points month-on-month, suggesting a potential year-on-year increase in export growth[7] - The total export value of South Korea for the first 20 days of November increased by 8.20% year-on-year, showing a recovery compared to October[34] Group 4: Monetary Policy and Market Trends - The ELI index is at -0.61%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, indicating a focus on long-term effects of government bond transactions rather than short-term scales[11] - The central bank's net liquidity withdrawal this week was 164.2 billion yuan, with a total reverse repurchase operation of 1,511.8 billion yuan[46]