Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates monthly revenue and profit growth rates for the coal industry based on changes in price and capacity factors[10] - **Model Construction Process**: - The pricing mechanism is determined by the last price index of the previous month, which sets the sales price for the next month[10] - The model incorporates price factors and capacity factors to estimate revenue and profit growth rates on a monthly basis[10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to track and predict industry profitability trends, but no significant improvement signals were observed for July 2025[13] 2. Model Name: Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model leverages the stable proportional relationship between hog slaughter and sow inventory lagged by six months to estimate future supply-demand gaps[14] - **Model Construction Process**: - The slaughter coefficient is calculated as: $ \text{Slaughter Coefficient} = \text{Quarterly Hog Slaughter} / \text{Sow Inventory (Lagged 6 Months)} $[14] - Future potential supply is estimated as: $ \text{6-Month Potential Supply} = \text{Current Sow Inventory} \times \text{Slaughter Coefficient (6 Months Ago)} $[15] - Future demand is projected based on historical quarterly slaughter data[15] - **Model Evaluation**: Historical data shows that this method effectively identifies hog price upward cycles[15] 3. Model Name: Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts monthly profit growth rates and calculates per-ton profit for the steel industry by considering steel prices and raw material costs[17] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model integrates steel prices with the costs of raw materials such as iron ore, coke, pulverized coal, and scrap steel to estimate profit growth rates[17] - **Model Evaluation**: The model highlights the industry's profit trends but indicates a negative profit growth rate for June 2025[21] 4. Model Name: Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model tracks profitability changes in the glass and cement industries using price and cost indicators, and designs allocation signals based on these changes[23] - **Model Construction Process**: - For the glass industry, the model calculates gross profit based on price and cost data[27] - For the cement industry, the model incorporates coal fuel price changes to predict profit growth rates[27] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively tracks profitability trends but maintains a neutral signal for both industries due to the lack of significant positive indicators[27] 5. Model Name: Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates profit growth rates and cracking spreads for the refining industry based on changes in fuel prices, crude oil prices, and new drilling activity[28] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses variations in fuel and crude oil prices to calculate profit growth rates and cracking spreads[28] - Allocation signals are designed based on observed changes in oil prices, cracking spreads, and new drilling activity[28] - **Model Evaluation**: The model predicts stable profit growth for June 2025 but maintains a neutral signal due to the lack of significant upward trends in oil prices and drilling activity[35][38] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Excess Return**: The model tracks the historical excess return of the coal industry relative to the Wind All-A Index, showing a declining profit trend for July 2025[13] 2. Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Supply-Demand Balance**: The model predicts a balanced supply-demand scenario for Q4 2025, with potential supply at 18,226 million heads and demand at 18,244 million heads[16] 3. Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Profit Growth**: The model forecasts a negative profit growth rate for June 2025, with no significant improvement in PMI rolling averages[21] 4. Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Glass Industry**: Gross profit for float glass continues to decline year-on-year as of June 2025[27] - **Cement Industry**: Profit growth is predicted to be positive for June 2025, driven by lower coal fuel prices[27] 5. Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Profit Growth**: The model predicts stable profit growth for the refining industry in June 2025, with oil prices and new drilling activity showing no significant upward trends[35][38]

Group 1: New Stock Issuance and Market Trends - In June 2025, a total of 8 new stocks were listed, raising a total of 9.153 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 164.8% [1] - Among these, 6 stocks participated in offline issuance, raising a combined amount of 8.730 billion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 174.1% [1] - The average first-day increase for new stocks on the main board was 188.17%, while the average for the dual-innovation board was 190.72% [1] Group 2: Pharmaceutical Industry Insights - The National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission issued measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, aiming to transition China from a "generic drug powerhouse" to an "innovative drug stronghold" [2] - The policy is expected to promote the comprehensive prosperity of innovative drug leading companies, niche biotech sectors, and the CXO industry chain [2] - Recommended companies to watch include Heng Rui Medicine, Innovent Biologics, CanSino Biologics, WuXi AppTec, and Kelaiying [2] Group 3: Company Performance Analysis - The company, Xingsen Technology, has seen continuous revenue growth with significant long-term growth potential [4] - The profit forecast for 2025-2026 has been revised down to 112 million yuan and 271 million yuan, representing a reduction of 77% and 60% respectively [4] - A new profit forecast for 2027 has been introduced at 442 million yuan, with current stock prices corresponding to PE ratios of 196, 81, and 50 times [4]

- The report includes a quantitative model for calculating single account IPO returns, defined as: $ Single\ Account\ IPO\ Return = min(Account\ Size, Subscription\ Limit) * Winning\ Rate * Return\ Rate $ Parameters: - Winning rate reflects actual IPO results - Return rate uses the first-day average transaction price relative to the issue price for IPOs under the comprehensive registration system, or the opening day price for non-registration system IPOs[41][42][43] - Another formula calculates full subscription returns for A/B/C class investors: $ Full\ Subscription\ Return = Subscription\ Limit * A/B/C\ Class\ Winning\ Rate * Return\ Rate $ This formula assumes maximum subscription and full allocation scenarios[41][42][43] - The report evaluates IPO returns across different market segments: - Main Board: A-class return rate 0.014%, C-class return rate 0.013% - ChiNext: A-class return rate 0.035%, C-class return rate 0.034% - STAR Market: A-class return rate 0.012%, C-class return rate 0.012%[42][43][45] - Monthly cumulative returns for 5-billion-scale accounts: - A-class: June return rate 0.168%, cumulative return rate 0.743% - C-class: June return rate 0.166%, cumulative return rate 0.670%[46][47][48] - Full subscription returns for June: - Main Board: A-class 94,000 yuan, C-class 87,000 yuan - ChiNext: A-class 173,000 yuan, C-class 168,000 yuan - STAR Market: A-class 735,000 yuan, C-class 734,000 yuan[49][50][52]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [1] Core Insights - The report discusses the issuance of 16 supportive policies by the National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission aimed at enhancing the high-quality development of innovative drugs [3] - It emphasizes a comprehensive support system that includes research and development, market access, payment mechanisms, and clinical application to transition China from a "generic drug powerhouse" to an "innovative drug stronghold" [8] Summary by Sections Research and Development - Data empowerment and the introduction of patient capital are expected to reduce the risks associated with innovative drug development [4] - The policy guidance aims to lower the backend risks of innovative drug research and development [4] Market Access and Payment - The dual drive of medical insurance and commercial insurance is set to expand market opportunities [5] - The dynamic adjustment mechanism for the medical insurance catalog will shorten the time gap between drug approval and market entry [7] - The introduction of a commercial health insurance catalog for innovative drugs will diversify the payment system for high-end innovative drugs [7] Clinical Application - The report highlights the optimization of processes and diversified guarantees to facilitate the final stages of drug application [6] - Encouragement for medical institutions to expedite the use of innovative drugs post-catalog updates is expected to enhance the speed of drug deployment in clinical settings [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading innovative drug companies and specialized biotech firms, including 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine), 信达生物 (Innovent Biologics), 康诺亚 (CanSino Biologics), 药明康德 (WuXi AppTec), and 凯莱英 (Kelun) [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for long-term growth potential [4][6]. Core Insights - The company, Xingsen Technology, focuses on advanced electronic circuit solutions, with its PCB and semiconductor businesses driving growth. The traditional PCB business emphasizes rapid prototyping and mass production, while the semiconductor segment concentrates on IC packaging substrates [2][3]. - The company has achieved continuous revenue growth, with a reported revenue of 5.817 billion yuan in 2024, representing an 8.53% year-on-year increase. However, it faced a net loss of 198 million yuan [4]. Summary by Sections Business Overview - Xingsen Technology specializes in advanced electronic circuit solutions, with a focus on PCB and semiconductor sectors. The company is enhancing its PCB factory's digital transformation to improve operational efficiency and customer satisfaction [2]. - The company is expanding its high-end PCB offerings, including Anylayer HDI boards and SLP products, while also targeting high-end optical modules and millimeter-wave communication markets [2][3]. Market Position - Xingsen Technology maintains a leading position in the PCB industry, ranking 14th among comprehensive PCB companies in China and 7th among domestic firms according to CPCA. It is also ranked 30th among the top 40 global PCB suppliers by Prismark [3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 5.817 billion yuan, an increase of 8.53% from the previous year. The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 1.580 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.77% year-on-year growth [4]. - The forecast for net profit has been adjusted downward for 2025 and 2026 due to industry demand issues, with projected net profits of 112 million yuan and 271 million yuan, respectively [4]. Growth Potential - The CSP packaging substrate business is expected to have significant growth potential, focusing on storage and RF markets while expanding into the automotive sector. The company aims to enhance profitability through a shift towards high-value products [3][4].

Macro Insights - The manufacturing PMI index continued to rise in June, driven by a reduction in external disturbances and a slight improvement in new export orders [2] - The internal economic momentum is recovering, with high-energy-consuming industries stabilizing and new economic drivers expanding steadily, leading to increased production and procurement activities [2] - The service industry business activity index saw a slight decline due to the end of holiday effects, but overall market expectations remain positive with the upcoming summer consumption peak [2] - The construction industry business activity index stabilized and improved, primarily due to positive developments in housing construction activities [2] Stock Recommendations - The A-share stock selection for July includes New Guodu, Hengsheng Electronics, Gree Electric Appliances, Haier Smart Home, Akol, New China Life, China Life, Dongfang Fortune, China National Materials, and Huayou Cobalt [3] - The Hong Kong stock selection for July includes Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, AIA, China Hongqiao, Tencent Holdings, Xiaomi Group-W, Xindong Company, Pop Mart, and Hua Hong Semiconductor [3] Company Research - Akol's COC project has passed the acceptance review and has officially entered the stable production phase, with successful output of qualified products [4] - Kuaishou's advertising growth is expected to accelerate in the second half of 2025, driven by the launch of the new recommendation system OneRec and the potential for further monetization of the general merchandise shelf [5] - Bosideng achieved a revenue of 25.9 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2024/2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, with a net profit of 3.51 billion yuan, up 14.3% [6] - Health元 is transitioning its traditional main business and is expected to see orderly progress in innovation, with revised net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [8] - New Dairy is expected to benefit from the continued advantages of raw milk and structural upgrades that enhance profitability, despite some concerns about the sustainability of raw milk cost benefits [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [6][15]. Core Insights - The company's inhalation formulation revenue has experienced fluctuations, with a reported sales revenue of 1.097 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 36.98%. This decline is attributed to slow sales growth of Tobramycin primarily from ICU departments, the impact of centralized procurement policies on Levosalbutamol, and a high base from the previous year due to respiratory disease outbreaks. However, it is anticipated that revenue will recover in 2025 as negative factors dissipate and products like Tobramycin, Shulide, and TG-1000 gradually gain market traction [2][3]. - The health products and OTC segments have shown rapid growth, achieving a revenue of 0.697 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 53.91%. The company has effectively utilized new media channels such as Xiaohongshu, Douyin, and WeChat to enhance brand visibility and drive sales growth. The growth momentum in these segments is expected to continue into 2025-2026 [2][3]. - The company is actively investing in R&D and innovation, pursuing a strategy of "mechanism innovation + multi-indication coverage" in the field of innovative drugs. Key developments include the anticipated approval of the anti-influenza drug TG-1000 in the second half of 2025, the registration of complex formulations like Salmeterol and Fluticasone, and advancements in monoclonal antibodies targeting TSLP and IL-4R, which are currently in Phase II clinical trials [3][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is entering a transitional phase due to centralized procurement and has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 1.32 billion yuan and 1.51 billion yuan, respectively, down by 17.5% and 14.4% from previous estimates. A new forecast for 2027 projects a net profit of 1.665 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.72, 0.83, and 0.91 yuan for 2025-2027, and P/E ratios of 15, 13, and 12 times [4][5]. Financial Metrics - The company's revenue is projected to decline from 16.646 billion yuan in 2023 to 15.619 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight recovery to 15.76 billion yuan in 2025. The net profit is expected to decrease from 1.443 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.387 billion yuan in 2024, before further declining to 1.32 billion yuan in 2025 [5][10]. Profitability and Valuation - The report indicates a gross margin of 62.2% for 2023, with a slight increase to 62.8% by 2027. The EBITDA margin is projected to be around 28.8% in 2023, with a slight decline to 28.9% by 2027. The net profit margin is expected to improve from 8.7% in 2023 to 9.4% in 2027 [12][13].

The provided content does not include any quantitative models or factors, nor does it discuss their construction, evaluation, or backtesting results. The report primarily focuses on fund market performance, fund issuance, ESG products, and ETF market trends. There are no references to quantitative models or factors in the provided documents.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a robust and high-quality growth in a weak demand environment, continuing to advance its dual-focus strategy [10] - For the fiscal year 2024/25, the company reported a revenue of 25.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.51 billion RMB, up 14.3% year-on-year [5] - The company’s gross margin decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 57.3%, while the operating margin increased by 0.2 percentage points to 19.2% [5][8] Financial Performance - The company’s main business segments showed varied performance: brand down jackets increased by 11%, OEM processing by 26%, women's wear decreased by 21%, and diversified clothing increased by 3% [6] - Online sales for the entire brand reached 7.58 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 9.3%, with the brand down jackets accounting for 34.5% of the revenue [6] - As of March 2025, the company had 3,470 down jacket stores, a net increase of 253 stores, reflecting a 7.9% growth [7] Profitability and Cost Management - The company’s operating expenses ratio decreased by 2.0 percentage points to 38.5%, indicating effective cost control [8] - The inventory increased by 23.6% to 3.95 billion RMB, with inventory turnover days slightly increasing to 118 days [9] Strategic Focus - The company is committed to a dual-focus strategy centered on down jackets and fashionable functional apparel, aiming for steady growth despite external challenges [10] - The report anticipates continued revenue growth exceeding 10% for the main business segments, showcasing the resilience of the brand and operations [10] Earnings Forecast - The report projects revenue growth rates of 10.1% for FY2026 and 10.0% for FY2027, with net profit growth rates of 11.5% and 11.4% respectively [11] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for FY2026 is projected at 0.34 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12 [11]