Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by over 15% in the next 6-12 months [7]. Core Insights - The North American market is experiencing strong demand for AI inference, leading to significant stock performance among cybersecurity companies closely associated with AI and cloud security. From April 8, 2025, to June 16, 2025, the Nasdaq index rose by 26.3%, with stock price increases for Palo Alto Networks, CrowdStrike, Zscaler, Rubrik, and Cloudflare reaching 30.0%, 47.8%, 69.4%, 73.5%, and 82.3% respectively [2]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - CrowdStrike is leveraging platformization and AI-native capabilities, reporting a transaction value exceeding $3.2 billion in its Flex model, with next-generation SIEM ARR growth exceeding 100%. The AI-native XDR platform is projected to cover a market size of $116 billion [3]. - Palo Alto Networks has seen significant results from its AI security initiatives, with 60% of customers achieving a mean time to resolution (MTTR) of under 10 minutes, and an ARR growth of over 200% for its XSIAM platform. The Prisma AIRS platform targets a $15 billion AI security market [3]. - Cloudflare is successfully transitioning from a CDN to an AI security cloud service provider, with a 54% revenue growth in the Asia-Pacific region and a 27% increase in paid customers [4]. - Rubrik focuses on a rapid recovery engine, significantly reducing recovery time from weeks to hours, with a 60% ARR growth and a subscription ARR of $1.18 billion, up 38% year-over-year [4]. - Zscaler is advancing AI-driven network security, with significant ARR growth in its Zero Trust and data security initiatives, and a 70% year-over-year increase in ZDX Advanced bookings [5]. Investment Recommendations - The deep integration of AI and cloud security is reshaping the global cybersecurity landscape. Traditional leaders like CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks are enhancing their competitive advantages through continuous technological iterations, while companies like Cloudflare, Rubrik, and Zscaler are achieving rapid growth through cloud-native and AI-native architectures. The report recommends focusing on vendors with AI and cloud security product capabilities to capture the increasing demand in the cybersecurity sector during digital transformation [6]. Recommended stocks include CrowdStrike, with a watch on Rubrik, Cloudflare, and Zscaler [6].

2025 年 6 月 19 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】耐用品消费转弱，美国消费显著降温——2025 年 5 月美国零售数据点评 对等关税生效前，3 月美国消费者抢先大量采购，透支未来的消费需求，导致 5 月零 售环比增速降至-0.9%。分项看，前期抢购较多的汽车、建材、家电等耐用品消费环 比增速降幅更为明显，也指向关税扰动下，美国家庭选择减少非必需品的支出。从降 息节奏看，5 月零售数据超预期转弱，增加了美联储降息紧迫性，但短期内美国的通 胀压力依然制约美联储货币政策空间，6 月美联储降息概率仍有限。 行业研究 【石化】IEA 下调原油需求预期，伊以、俄乌地缘政治冲突加剧——石化化工行业动 态跟踪第 81 期(增持) IEA 预计 2025 年全球原油需求增长 72 万桶/日，2026 年增长 74 万桶/日，25、26 年预测值较上月下调 2 万桶/日。欧盟委员会 17 日提出一项立法提案，欧盟将在 2027 年底前逐步停止进口俄罗斯的天然气和石油。油价有望在地缘政治前景的不确定性影 响下震荡上行。风险分析：地缘政治风险，上游资本开支增速不及预期，原油和天然 气价格大幅波动。 公 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical industry [5] Core Views - The IEA has lowered its oil demand forecast, expecting OPEC+ to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day in 2025. The global oil demand is projected to grow by 720,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 740,000 barrels per day in 2026, with a downward revision of 20,000 barrels per day for both years due to weak demand in the US and China [1] - The EU plans to gradually stop importing Russian oil and gas by the end of 2027, which is expected to sustain oil prices due to geopolitical risk premiums stemming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict [2] - The ongoing Israel-Iran conflict poses a risk of escalation, which could further drive oil prices upward. Iran's current oil production is approximately 4.8 million barrels per day, with exports averaging 1.7 million barrels per day this year [3] Summary by Sections Oil Demand and Supply Forecast - IEA forecasts a global oil supply increase of 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025, reaching 104.9 million barrels per day, with non-OPEC+ countries contributing 1.4 million barrels per day and OPEC+ contributing 400,000 barrels per day [1] Geopolitical Risks - The report highlights that geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict and the Russia-Ukraine situation, are significant factors influencing oil prices. The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for about 25% of global oil transport, could have a major impact on the oil market [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on major Chinese oil companies ("Three Barrel Oil") and their associated oil service firms, as well as leading oil transportation companies [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [3][5][13]. Core Insights - The company has experienced a significant increase in new orders, with Q1 2025 new orders reaching 585 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 89.38%. This growth is driven by the increasing domestic demand for laser technology across various industries [1]. - Revenue for Q1 2025 was reported at 343 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.07%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 36 million yuan, up 37.11% year-on-year [1]. - The company is actively expanding its product offerings in the optical module testing sector, with a strong order reserve and rapid revenue growth from mobile camera testing equipment [1][2]. - In the renewable energy sector, the company successfully delivered large quantities of 500W MOPA pulsed laser products, enhancing processing efficiency compared to previous models [2]. - The passive components industry is showing signs of recovery, and the company is launching new products to meet the growing demand [2]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s projected revenue for 2025 is 1.762 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 21.22%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 177 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 33.43% [4][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.86 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 36 [4][12]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase to 8.15% by 2025, indicating improved profitability [11].

2025 年 6 月 18 日 总量研究 耐用品消费转弱，美国消费显著降温 ——2025 年 5 月美国零售数据点评 作者 分析师：高瑞东 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 010-56513108 gaoruidong@ebscn.com 联系人：周欣平 010-57378026 zhouxinping@ebscn.com 相关研报 关税扰动显现，美国消费数据转弱—— 2025 年 4 月 美 国 零 售 数 据 点 评 （2025-05-16） 关税扰动导致美国消费节奏前置——2025 年 3 月美国零售数据点评（2025-04-17） 如何理解 2 月美国低于预期的消费数据？ — — 2025 年 2 月 美 国 零 售 数 据 点 评 （2025-03-18） 美国消费如期转弱，年内降息必要性增加 — — 2025 年 1 月 美 国 零 售 数 据 点 评 （2025-02-15） 美国消费转弱，年内仍存 2-3 次降息空间 — —2024 年 12 月 美 国零 售数据 点 评 （2025-01-17） 如何理解 11 月偏弱的美国核心消费数 据？——2024 年 11 月美国零售数据点 ...

Industry Research - OPEC+ increased production by 180,000 barrels per day in May, with voluntary cuts from 8 countries contributing 154,000 barrels per day, and Saudi Arabia increasing production by 177,000 barrels per day. The increase was below the planned 410,000 barrels per day [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between Iran and Israel, have led to attacks on each other's energy facilities, which may drive oil prices higher due to uncertainty in the geopolitical landscape [2] Company Research - The report highlights that the company, 澜起科技 (Lianqi Technology), is expected to benefit from the ongoing AI wave and the continued penetration of DDR5 technology, which will drive significant growth in net profit [3] - The net profit forecast for the company has been raised to 2.224 billion CNY for 2025 and 3.075 billion CNY for 2026, reflecting an increase of 15% from previous estimates. Additionally, a new forecast for 2027 projects net profit to reach 3.862 billion CNY [3] - The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 41, 30, and 24 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a positive long-term growth outlook and maintaining a "buy" rating [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [5] Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ increased production by 180,000 barrels per day in May, which is below the planned increase, while geopolitical conflicts are driving oil prices upward [1] - OPEC maintains its global oil demand growth forecast, expecting an increase of 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, with strong demand from aviation, gasoline, liquefied gas, and naphtha [1] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is escalating, with attacks on energy facilities by Iran and Israel, leading to significant disruptions in oil production and refining [2] - The "Big Three" oil companies in China are focusing on increasing reserves and production to ensure energy security, with capital expenditures projected to grow at a CAGR of 6.6% from 2018 to 2024 [3] Summary by Sections OPEC and Oil Demand - OPEC+ is expected to see a cumulative production increase of 180,000 barrels per day by May 2025, with a significant portion of this increase coming from Saudi Arabia [1] - The demand for aviation fuel is projected to grow by 450,000 barrels per day in 2025, while gasoline demand is expected to rise by 380,000 barrels per day [1] Geopolitical Risks - The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel has led to attacks on energy infrastructure, causing production halts and operational shutdowns in major facilities [2] - The risk of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz remains, which could severely impact global oil trade, as approximately 11% of global maritime trade passes through this route [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on the "Big Three" oil companies (China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC) and their associated oil service companies, as well as leading oil transportation firms [3] - The anticipated short-term increase in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and the long-term favorable supply-demand dynamics support a positive outlook for the sector [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a favorable outlook for investment over the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company is benefiting from the ongoing AI wave, with significant growth potential as it consolidates its leading position in the DDR5 memory interface chip market [1]. - The company's revenue and profit are experiencing substantial growth, with a projected revenue of 3.639 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 59.20%, and a net profit of 1.412 billion yuan, reflecting a 213.10% increase [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leader in the memory interface chip industry and is actively involved in the development of international standards for DDR5 RCD chips, maintaining its competitive edge as DDR5 technology continues to evolve [1]. Product Development - The company has introduced several high-performance interconnect chips, including PCIe Retimer, MRCD/MDB, CKD, and MXC, which cater to the high bandwidth requirements of AI and high-performance computing applications [2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.639 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.412 billion yuan, with significant growth rates projected for the following years [3][4]. - The company’s high-performance chips generated a sales revenue of 135 million yuan in Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 155% [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised to 2.224 billion yuan and 3.075 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 3.862 billion yuan [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 41 for 2025, 30 for 2026, and 24 for 2027, indicating a positive long-term growth outlook [3].

Macro Economic Analysis - In May, the consumption of goods and services showed a significant recovery, driven by the "old-for-new" policy and holiday effects, with retail sales exceeding expectations [1] - However, investment growth slowed due to fewer working days, US tariff policies, and a widening decline in real estate sales, indicating a mixed economic recovery with improving demand but slowing investment [1] Fund Market Insights - The pharmaceutical-themed funds continued to perform well, increasing by 3.75%, while TMT-themed funds saw a decline [2] - Stock ETFs experienced a net outflow of 154.20 billion yuan, with significant outflows from large-cap broad-based ETFs, while sectors like oil and petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, and communications saw increased fund allocation [2] Transportation Industry Outlook - The escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East has led to a surge in VLCC freight rates, with expectations for further price recovery due to increased oil transport risks and potential sanctions on Iranian oil production [3] Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The price of London gold reached a historical high, and the steel sector is expected to recover to historical profit levels following the revision of industry standards [4] Pharmaceutical Industry Developments - AI technology is rapidly advancing in the pharmaceutical sector, with notable product innovations and collaborations, suggesting investment opportunities in companies like Heng Rui Pharmaceutical and Mindray Medical [5] Renewable Energy Sector - Continued optimism for investments in wind power, virtual power plants, and solid-state batteries, with nuclear fusion research gaining momentum despite its long path to commercialization [7] Machinery Industry Updates - The 2025 Intelligent Robotics Development Conference highlighted advancements in humanoid robots, with a focus on companies like Zhaowei Electromechanical and Mingzhi Electric [8] Copper Industry Analysis - Domestic waste copper production in May was 92,000 tons, down 20% year-on-year, indicating supply-side disruptions and potential upward price movements contingent on domestic stimulus policies [9] Basic Chemicals Sector - Recent accidents in chemical enterprises have raised concerns, with recommendations to focus on leading companies in various sub-sectors, including oil and gas, and new materials [10] Construction and Building Materials Sector - The government is pushing for a new model in real estate development, with recommendations to focus on companies like Honglu Steel Structure and China National Chemical [11]

Group 1: Economic Overview - In May 2025, retail sales (社零) grew by 6.4% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the expected 4.9% and marking the highest monthly growth since January-February 2023[3] - Industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year in May, slightly above the expected 5.7% but down from 6.1% in the previous month[5] - Fixed asset investment for January-May 2025 showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.7%, below the expected 4.0%[5] Group 2: Consumption Insights - The "old-for-new" policy led to a 6.5% year-on-year growth in retail sales of goods, the highest since December 2023, with home appliances seeing a remarkable growth of 53%[4] - Service consumption, boosted by holiday effects, saw restaurant sales increase by 5.9% year-on-year, reaching the highest point since April 2024[7] - The total sales from the five major categories under the "old-for-new" policy reached 1.1 trillion yuan, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued to consumers[4] Group 3: Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment growth fell to 7.8% year-on-year in May, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[12] - Infrastructure investment growth slightly declined to 9.2% year-on-year in May, down from 9.6% in April, primarily due to a slowdown in water conservancy investments[19] - Real estate development investment saw a year-on-year decline of 12.4% in May, worsening from a 10.3% drop in March[25] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - The economic recovery is facing challenges, including reduced working days in May and the impact of U.S. tariff policies[2] - There is a need for continued policy precision to enhance domestic economic momentum, as household income growth remains under pressure[2] - The ongoing uncertainty in international trade relations necessitates a focus on strengthening domestic circulation to maintain economic stability[7]