Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report argues that there is no need to be overly worried about the liquidity situation at this stage. The probability of the monetary authorities actively tightening the liquidity is low, and factors such as CD maturities and deposit rate cuts are not the main factors affecting money market interest rates. There is a high probability of an expected difference in the liquidity situation, and the medium - and long - end of the yield curve may be repriced. However, the downward space of the yield curve this year is limited compared to the same period last year [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Why Not Worry About the Liquidity? - **Low Probability of Monetary Authorities Tightening Liquidity**: In May 2025, the 10Y Treasury bond yield was 1.67%, up about 5bp from the end of April. The long - end of the yield curve rose due to investors' concerns about the liquidity. But the probability of the monetary authorities actively tightening the liquidity is low. The spread between the 10Y Treasury bond and 7D OMO has recovered, and the uncertainty of the external environment has increased, so the monetary authorities are more concerned about the liquidity. For example, the average and volatility of DR007 in Q1 were 2.11% and 0.44% respectively, and have dropped to 1.71% and 0.10% since Q2 (as of the end of May) [1][2]. - **CD Maturity and Interest Rate Relationship**: CD maturity and net issuance demand are different concepts, and CD interest rates are not sensitive to maturities. From early 2020 to May 2025, the Pearson correlation coefficient between CD maturities and the monthly average of CD interest rates was - 0.30, and - 0.34 between maturities and the end - of - month values. In months with significantly rising CD maturities in recent years, the 1Y AAA - rated CD interest rate did not necessarily increase [3]. - **Deposit Rate Cuts and CD Interest Rates**: Deposit rate cuts do not necessarily lead to a decline in CD interest rates. For example, when state - owned large - bank deposit rates were cut in October 2024, the 1Y AAA - rated CD interest rate decreased over the following months [3]. - **Expected Difference in Liquidity and Yield Curve**: The short - end of the yield curve is mainly affected by monetary policy. The monetary authorities' urgency to tighten the liquidity to guide up long - bond yields has decreased, and they will not allow CD interest rates to rise significantly. There is a high probability of an expected difference in the liquidity situation. The short - end, mid - end, and long - end of the yield curve all have downward space until the end of the year, but the downward space is limited compared to last year. For example, the average of DR007 may gradually fall from 1.63% in May to about 1.5% in the next two months, and trading days with rates below 1.4% are not common [4].

2025 年 6 月 3 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】"抢出口"带动制造业 PMI 回暖——2025 年 5 月 PMI 点评 5 月制造业 PMI 回暖，源于外需形势好转，企业加快"抢出口"，带动生产指数升至 荣枯线上方，采购量、从业人员、原材料库存指数相应回升。结构上，以装备/高技 术制造业为代表的经济新动能保持较快增长，高耗能行业景气度继续回落；服务业 PMI 小幅上行，源于"五一"节日效应下，居民旅游出行、餐饮住宿活动表现活跃； 受房建需求拖累，建筑业活动扩张放缓，但各地基建进度继续加快。 【策略】寻找震荡中的机会——2025 年 6 月策略观点 短期外部风险扰动最严重的时候或许已经过去，但仍需要对特朗普后续政策的反复保 持警惕。近期国内政策仍积极发力，预计后续政策仍将持续落地。随着中美两国为"对 等关税"按下 90 天"暂停键"，短期内出口或将保持高增，预计消费仍是经济修复 的重要动能之一。内外因素交织之下，预计指数 6 月整体保持震荡。 【债券】二级市场价格震荡波动，多只 REITs 产品等待上市——REITs 周度观察 （20250526-20250530） 2025 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic outlook is improving, which is expected to support copper price increases. As of May 30, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 77,600 RMB/ton, down 0.2% from May 23, while LME copper closed at 9,497 USD/ton, also down 0.24% [1]. - Supply-side disruptions in copper mining are increasing, leading to overall supply tightness. Demand is expected to weaken as the inventory replenishment effect from tariffs diminishes and the domestic market enters a seasonal slowdown [1]. - The report anticipates that copper prices will stabilize in the short term but may rise gradually following domestic stimulus policies and potential interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1]. Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 1% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory fell by 9% [2]. - As of May 30, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory was 796,000 tons, up 2% from the previous week [2]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 436,000 tons as of May 23, 2025, down 3.5% week-on-week [2]. Supply - In April, imported scrap copper was 168,000 tons, up 7% month-on-month but down 7% year-on-year [2]. - In March 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 157,000 tons, up 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [2]. - The price difference between electrolytic copper and scrap copper was 1,142 RMB/ton as of May 30, 2025, up 275 RMB/ton from May 23 [2]. Smelting - Domestic electrolytic copper production in May was 1.1383 million tons, up 1.1% month-on-month and 12.9% year-on-year [3]. - The spot price of TC was -43.45 USD/pound as of May 30, 2025, still at a low level since September 2007 [3]. - Net imports of electrolytic copper from January to April totaled 897,000 tons, down 17.7% year-on-year [3]. Demand - The cable industry's operating rate decreased by 3.7 percentage points week-on-week, while air conditioning production in August is expected to grow by 2.7% year-on-year [3]. - The cable sector accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, with the operating rate at 78.67% as of May 29, 2025 [3]. - Air conditioning production is projected to increase by 11.5%, 6.3%, and 2.7% in June, July, and August respectively [3]. Futures - SHFE copper active contract positions increased by 19% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions rose by 7% [4]. - As of May 30, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions were 173,000 lots, up 19.4% from the previous week [4]. - The report suggests that copper prices are likely to rise in 2025 due to tightening supply and improving demand [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while also suggesting to pay attention to Minmetals Resources [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - Port coal inventories are declining, and thermal coal prices have stopped falling. As of May 30, the coal inventory at ports in the Bohai Rim was 30.572 million tons, down 4.78% week-on-week but up 18.83% year-on-year. The average closing price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 611 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week. The approaching summer peak electricity demand is expected to support a rebound in coal prices [1][4]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - The average closing price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 611 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.03% week-on-week. The average price for mixed thermal coal at Yulin was 475 CNY/ton, unchanged week-on-week. The FOB price for thermal coal at Newcastle, Australia, was 67 USD/ton, down 2.14% [2]. Production and Utilization - The operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants was 61.6%, down 0.8 percentage points week-on-week and down 7.3 percentage points year-on-year. The capacity utilization rate of 247 blast furnaces was 90.69%, down 0.63 percentage points week-on-week but up 2.52 percentage points year-on-year. The average daily pig iron output was 2.4185 million tons, down 0.7% week-on-week but up 2.6% year-on-year [3]. Inventory Tracking - As of May 30, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port was 6.75 million tons, down 7.53% week-on-week and up 42.41% year-on-year. The Bohai Rim port coal inventory was 30.572 million tons, down 4.78% week-on-week and up 18.83% year-on-year. The inventory levels at independent coking plants and sample steel mills are currently at low levels [4][53]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the seasonal increase in electricity demand during the summer is likely to support a rebound in coal prices. It recommends companies with a high proportion of long-term contracts and stable profitability, specifically China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [4]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report includes earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies, with China Shenhua's EPS forecast for 2025 at 2.5 CNY and a PE ratio of 16. The investment rating for China Shenhua is "Accumulate" [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months [5][77]. Core Insights - The pig farming sector is showing signs of recovery, with the industry capacity cycle having bottomed out. The current high inventory levels and peak post-slaughter weights suggest a potential turning point in inventory, which may lead to a long-term profit uptrend after destocking [4][75]. - The report highlights a stable increase in pig prices, with the national average price for live pigs at 14.40 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.41%. However, the demand is expected to weaken as the summer approaches [1][24]. - The natural rubber market is experiencing a downward trend, with prices dropping to 13,615 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.57% week-on-week. This shift indicates a transition from strong reality to weak expectations in the market [3][65]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector outperformed the market, with a weekly increase of 1.79% compared to a slight decline in major indices [14]. - The pig farming segment is witnessing a slight increase in slaughter weights, with the average weight at 129.18 kg, down 0.15% week-on-week [24]. 2. Key Data Tracking - The average price of live pigs decreased by 0.9% month-on-month, while the average price of piglets increased by 5.2% year-on-year [2][23]. - The inventory of breeding sows remained stable at 40.38 million heads, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [2][23]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, suggesting stocks like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Juxing Agriculture for potential long-term gains [4][75]. - For the post-cycle sector, companies like Haida Group and Ruipu Biological are highlighted due to the rising demand for feed and veterinary products [4][75]. - In the planting chain, the report suggests investing in companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang, as grain prices are on an upward trend [4][75]. 4. Commodity Insights - The report notes a significant drop in natural rubber prices, indicating a cautious sentiment among manufacturers regarding raw material procurement [3][65]. - The prices of corn and soybean meal have shown mixed trends, with corn prices slightly increasing while soybean meal prices have decreased [50][54].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [6]. Core Views - Port coal inventories are declining, and thermal coal prices have stopped falling. As of May 30, the coal inventory at ports in the Bohai Rim was 30.572 million tons, down 4.78% week-on-week but up 18.83% year-on-year. The average closing price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 611 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week. The approaching summer peak electricity demand is expected to support a rebound in coal prices [1][4]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - The average closing price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 611 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.03% week-on-week. The average price for mixed thermal coal at the pit in Yulin, Shaanxi, was 475 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week [2]. Inventory Tracking - As of May 30, coal inventories at Qinhuangdao port were 6.75 million tons, down 7.53% week-on-week and up 42.41% year-on-year. The Bohai Rim port coal inventory was 30.572 million tons, down 4.78% week-on-week and up 18.83% year-on-year, indicating a high level for the same period [4][53]. Production and Utilization - The operating rate of 110 sample washing coal plants was 61.6%, down 0.8 percentage points week-on-week and down 7.3 percentage points year-on-year. The capacity utilization rate of 247 blast furnaces was 90.69%, down 0.63 percentage points week-on-week but up 2.52 percentage points year-on-year, with an average daily pig iron output of 2.4185 million tons, down 0.7% week-on-week but up 2.6% year-on-year [3][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the seasonal increase in electricity demand during the summer is likely to support a rebound in coal prices. It recommends companies with a high proportion of long-term contracts and stable profitability, such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is in a transitional phase with new and old products, awaiting the launch of pure electric models and the realization of AI technology [1] - The management has guided for a delivery volume of 123,000 to 128,000 units in Q2 2025, influenced by the clearance of old models and the ramp-up of new models [2] - The company is expected to release new pure electric SUV models i8 and i6 in July and September 2025, respectively, which may fill a market gap for electric SUVs priced above 300,000 yuan [3] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, total revenue was 25.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.1% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 41.4% [1] - The automotive business revenue in Q1 2025 was 24.68 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 42.1% [2] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q1 2025 was 1.02 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 20.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 74.7% [1][2] - Free cash flow for Q1 2025 was 2.5 billion yuan, with total cash on hand amounting to approximately 110.7 billion yuan [2] Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 20.5%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.1 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.2 percentage points [1] - R&D expense ratio in Q1 2025 was 9.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2 percentage points [2] - Non-GAAP net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 3.9%, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year and 5.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to focus on the recovery of L-series sales and the ramp-up of pure electric models in 2025 [4] - The forecast for Non-GAAP net profit for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards by 27%, 33%, and 12% to 8 billion yuan, 12.4 billion yuan, and 17.8 billion yuan, respectively [4] - The company plans to expand into lower-tier cities, potentially adding over 100,000 units in sales by 2026 [3]

2025 年 6 月 2 日 有色 钨价格再创 2013 年以来新高值， 氧化镨钕价格创近 1 个月新高 ——金属新材料高频数据周报（20250526-20250601） 要点 军工新材料：价格持平。（1）本周电解钴价格 23.80 万元/吨，环比 +0%。 本周电解钴和钴粉比值 0.93 ，环比+0.1%；电解钴和硫酸钴价格比值为 4.91 ，环比+1.0%。（2）碳纤维本周价格 83.8 元/千克，环比+0%。毛利 -9.01 元/千克。（3）铍价格持平。 新能源车新材料：锂辉石价格下跌。（1）本周 Li2O 5%锂精矿中国到岸价已 达到 545 美元/吨，环比 -2.68%。（2）本周电碳、工碳和电池级氢氧化锂价 格分别为 6.25 、6.07 和 6.40 万元/吨，环比 -2.5%、-2.69%和 -1.7%。电 碳与工碳价差为 2024 年 11 月以来新低，或代表锂电景气度相较工业领域有 所减弱。（3）本周硫酸钴价格 4.77 万元/吨，环比-0.10%。（4）本周磷酸 铁锂、523 型正极材料价格分别为 3.15 、10.59 万元/吨，环比 +0%、 +0%。（5）本周氧化镨钕价格 438. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [6] Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ has announced an increase in production by 411,000 barrels per day starting in July, which raises concerns about oil supply and has led to a decline in oil prices [1][10][11] - The increase in production is a response to non-compliance by major member countries, particularly Iraq and Kazakhstan, and aims to counteract the marginal cost of U.S. shale oil production [1][12] - The geopolitical landscape remains uncertain, impacting China's energy security, prompting the "Three Oil Companies" to increase their oil and gas production to ensure national energy security [3][21][23] - The report suggests that the long-term supply-demand dynamics for crude oil remain favorable, supporting a positive outlook for the "Three Oil Companies" and oil service sectors [4] Summary by Sections OPEC+ Production Increase - OPEC+ has agreed to a third consecutive month of significant production increases, maintaining the same scale as previous months [1][11] - The IEA projects that OPEC+ production will increase by 310,000 barrels per day this year and by 150,000 barrels per day in 2026 [1][11] U.S. Shale Oil Production - The recent decline in oil prices has significantly impacted the growth prospects for U.S. shale oil production, with companies indicating a need for $65 per barrel to be profitable [2][16] - The IEA forecasts that U.S. crude oil supply will increase by 440,000 barrels per day in 2025 and by 180,000 barrels per day in 2026, but the growth rate is expected to slow [2][16] "Three Oil Companies" Response - The "Three Oil Companies" (China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, and CNOOC) are responding to national calls for increased production, with planned growth rates of 1.6%, 1.3%, and 5.9% respectively for 2025 [3][23] - Significant capital expenditures are planned to support exploration and production, with total upstream capital expenditures projected at 210 billion, 76.7 billion, and 130 billion yuan for the respective companies [21][23] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the "Three Oil Companies" and their associated oil service engineering firms, as well as leading companies in the refining and chemical sectors [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haier Smart Home (600690.SH) with a current price of 25.04 CNY and a target price of 35.54 CNY [1] Core Views - The air conditioning business is significantly improving, and digital transformation is accelerating [1] - The company is expected to see a notable increase in air conditioning operations in 2025, with retail growth outpacing the industry [5] - The company continues to implement a high dividend policy, with a cash dividend ratio of 48.0% for 2024, expected to remain above 50% for 2025-2026 [7] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Haier Smart Home has appointed a new board and executive team, with key positions filled to enhance operational efficiency [5][11] - The company is focusing on digital marketing and inventory reforms to improve efficiency and brand recognition [6] Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 21.5 billion CNY for 2025, with a projected growth rate of 14.82% [10] - Revenue is expected to reach 307.31 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 7.46% [10] Market Position - Haier's air conditioning retail volume has increased significantly, with online and offline sales growing by 76% and 25% respectively in early 2025 [5] - The company's market share in air conditioning has strengthened, with a year-on-year increase of 3.6% in online sales [5] Digital Transformation - The launch of Haier Smart Home AI Data Cloud has improved customer interaction and product offerings [6] - The company is replicating its successful digital strategies from the Chinese market to its overseas operations [6] Dividend and Share Buyback - The company plans to repurchase up to 10% of its H shares and 30% of its D shares, with a total buyback amount between 1 billion and 2 billion CNY [7] - The expected dividend yield for 2025 is 4.8% based on a projected net profit of 21.5 billion CNY [7]