2026 年 1 月 11 日 联合研究 光研集萃（2026 年 1 月第 1 期） ——光大周度观点一览 要点 策略周度观点：寻找好春季行情中的持续性亮点 对春季行情保持耐心，重点关注成长与小盘风格。在政策支持与产业热点频出的 共同作用下，本周市场延续了 12 月末以来的强势表现。短期我们认为市场热度 仍有望持续，不过需要关注 1 月中旬之后到春节前市场逐步降温的可能。从历史 规律来看，上证指数当年 1 月的涨跌幅与上一年 12 月的涨幅呈一定的"此消彼 长"特征，同时春节之前市场交易热度也将有所下行。预计春节之后市场或许会 迎来新一轮上行动力。对于春季行情，投资者应保持耐心。 结构层面上，成长风格与小盘风格通常在春季行情中明显占优，短期建议关注成 长与顺周期两条主线。成长主线建议关注商业航天、半导体产业链、AI 等方向； 顺周期主线建议关注有色金属、零售、社会服务等方向。 本周重点行业 计算机：整体来看，中国 AI 应用具备三大机遇：1）实业深耕：基于我国完整的 工业体系，为 AI 的发展提供高价值的现实世界数据/应用场景/能源供应，重点 关注拥有行业 Knowhow 和数据的公司；2）外展出海：AI 工 ...

- The report discusses a volume-timing model that has issued buy signals for major broad-based indices, indicating a positive market sentiment[1][2][22] - The volume-timing model is constructed by analyzing the volume indicators of major broad-based indices and their ETFs, which have shown an increase in trading volume, suggesting a bullish market outlook[1][2][22] - The specific construction process of the volume-timing model involves tracking the trading volume of major indices and ETFs, and when the volume increases significantly, the model issues a buy signal[1][2][22] - The evaluation of the volume-timing model indicates that it is effective in capturing market sentiment and providing timely buy signals[1][2][22] - The report also introduces a sentiment indicator based on the proportion of rising stocks within the CSI 300 index, which helps gauge market sentiment by tracking the number of stocks with positive returns over a specified period[23][24] - The construction process of this sentiment indicator involves calculating the proportion of CSI 300 index constituent stocks with positive returns over a given period, and using this proportion to assess market sentiment[23][24] - The evaluation of this sentiment indicator suggests that it is useful for quickly capturing market upturns, although it may miss out on gains during prolonged bullish phases and has limitations in predicting market downturns[23][24] - Another sentiment indicator discussed in the report is the moving average sentiment indicator, which uses the eight moving averages of the CSI 300 index to determine market trends[30][31] - The construction process of the moving average sentiment indicator involves calculating the eight moving averages (8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233) of the CSI 300 index closing prices, and assigning values based on the number of moving averages the current price exceeds[30][31] - The evaluation of the moving average sentiment indicator indicates that it provides a clearer understanding of the market trends and is effective in identifying bullish phases[30][31] - The report includes backtesting results for the volume-timing model, showing that the model has consistently issued buy signals for major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and the ChiNext Index[23] - The sentiment indicator based on the proportion of rising stocks within the CSI 300 index has shown that the proportion of rising stocks is around 74%, indicating a positive market sentiment[24] - The moving average sentiment indicator shows that the CSI 300 index is currently in a bullish phase, as the short-term moving average is above the long-term moving average[30][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [5]. Core Insights - The analog chip market is entering an upcycle, with Analog Devices Inc. (ADI) planning a price increase of approximately 15% across its product line starting February 1, 2026, driven by inflationary pressures in raw materials, labor, energy, and logistics [1]. - The company achieved a revenue of 1.531 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 80.47%, with net profit reaching 126 million yuan, an increase of 2.25 billion yuan year-on-year [2]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the accelerated domestic substitution process in the analog chip sector, leveraging its competitive pricing [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections Revenue and Profitability - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue from signal chain products was 1.012 billion yuan, up 42.64% year-on-year, while revenue from power management chips surged to 517 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 274.08% [2]. - The company forecasts a net profit of 186 million yuan for 2025, revised up by 26%, while the 2026 net profit estimate is adjusted down to 314 million yuan, a decrease of 23% [3]. Market Position and Product Development - The company is expanding its product offerings in the signal chain and power management sectors, targeting key markets such as industrial, automotive, communication, and consumer electronics [1]. - The company has seen significant growth in its optical module business, with several high-value analog chip products achieving large-scale shipments [2]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to generate revenues of 2.166 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 77.57%, and net profits are anticipated to reach 314 million yuan in 2026 [4]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 1.35 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 129 [4][11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The convertible bond market and the equity market both rose this week. On January 9, 2026, the CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 513.79 points, reaching a new high since 2016, indicating a strong performance in the convertible bond market. Under the current supply - demand pattern of convertible bonds, the driving effect of the underlying stocks is expected to be strong, and there may still be room for valuation growth. It is recommended to carefully select bonds, comprehensively consider convertible bond terms and the situation of underlying stocks, and focus on industries catalyzed by policies and industries with high prosperity [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market行情 - From January 5 to January 9, 2026 (5 trading days), the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by +4.45% (last week's change was - 0.27%), and the CSI All - Share Index changed by +5.04% (last week's change was - 0.32%). Since 2026, the CSI Convertible Bond Index has risen by +4.45%, and the CSI All - Share Index has risen by +5.04% [1] - By bond rating, high - rated bonds (AAA), medium - high - rated bonds (AA+), medium - rated bonds (AA), medium - low - rated bonds (AA -), and low - rated bonds (AA - and below) rose by +1.37%, +2.50%, +5.16%, +4.83%, and +4.10% respectively this week, with medium - rated bonds having the highest increase [1] - By convertible bond size, large - scale convertible bonds (bond balance > 2 billion yuan), medium - large - scale convertible bonds (balance between 1.5 and 2 billion yuan), medium - scale convertible bonds (balance between 1 and 1.5 billion yuan), small - medium - scale convertible bonds (balance between 0.5 and 1 billion yuan), and small - scale convertible bonds (balance < 0.5 billion yuan) rose by +1.79%, +4.62%, +5.06%, +4.21%, and +4.74% respectively this week, with medium - scale convertible bonds having the highest increase [2] - By conversion parity, ultra - high - parity bonds (conversion value > 130 yuan), high - parity bonds (conversion value between 120 and 130 yuan), medium - high - parity bonds (conversion value between 110 and 120 yuan), medium - parity bonds (conversion value between 100 and 110 yuan), medium - low - parity bonds (conversion value between 90 and 100 yuan), low - parity bonds (conversion value between 80 and 90 yuan), and ultra - low - parity bonds (conversion value < 80 yuan) rose by +4.79%, +2.78%, +1.21%, +0.39%, +2.86%, - 3.27%, and +3.01% respectively this week, with ultra - high - parity bonds having the highest increase [2] 2. Current Convertible Bond Valuation Level - As of January 9, 2026, there were 398 outstanding convertible bonds (399 at the end of last week), with a balance of 551.501 billion yuan (552.981 billion yuan at the end of last week) [3] - The average convertible bond price was 137.03 yuan (132.33 yuan at the end of last week), and the percentile was 100.00% (from the beginning of 2023 to January 9, 2026) [3] - The average convertible bond parity was 104.54 yuan (101.92 yuan at the end of last week), and the percentile was 93.01% [3] - The average convertible bond conversion premium rate was 32.80% (31.52% at the end of last week), and the percentile was 43.15% [3] 3. Convertible Bond Increase Situation - The top 15 convertible bonds in terms of increase this week are listed, including details such as convertible bond abbreviation, underlying stock abbreviation, industry, latest closing price, convertible bond increase rate, and underlying stock increase rate. For example, Seli Convertible Bond had a convertible bond increase of 43.10% and an underlying stock increase of 35.43% [20]

Group 1 - The A-share market has continued to rise, driven by an increase in market risk appetite, with the ChiNext 50 index showing the best performance at a growth rate of 9.8%, while the CSI 300 index had the lowest growth rate of 2.8% [1][10][14] - The overall valuation of the Wind All A index is at the 94.6 percentile since 2010, indicating a relatively high valuation level [1][10][12] - In terms of industry performance, the comprehensive, defense, and media sectors performed relatively well, with growth rates of 14.5%, 13.6%, and 13.1% respectively, while banking, transportation, and oil and petrochemicals lagged behind with growth rates of -1.9%, 0.2%, and 0.3% [1][10][14] Group 2 - The report highlights the importance of the "Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing" initiative, which aims to enhance the application of AI in manufacturing by 2027, promoting the development of key technologies and industry standards [2][18][19] - The Consumer Electronics Show (CES) 2026 showcased advancements in AI, digital health, and energy technology, indicating a strong focus on innovation in the technology sector [2][20] - The report notes that the market is expected to see a rotation between growth and defensive styles in January, with sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and non-ferrous metals being highlighted for growth potential [3][34][33] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the ongoing interest in the commercial aerospace sector, which has seen significant price increases and remains supported by favorable policies and active capital [3][34] - The analysis suggests that if the market style leans towards growth, the top-performing sectors will include electronics, power equipment, and defense, while defensive styles will favor non-bank financials and transportation [3][34] - The report indicates that the A-share market typically performs well in the 20 trading days following the Spring Festival, suggesting a potential for positive market sentiment in the near term [3][31][33]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: PB-ROE-50 Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The PB-ROE-50 portfolio is constructed based on the Price-to-Book (PB) ratio and Return on Equity (ROE) metrics, aiming to identify stocks with favorable valuation and profitability characteristics[24] - **Model Construction Process**: - Stocks are selected from the target stock pool (e.g., CSI 800, CSI 500, or the entire market) - The selection criteria prioritize stocks with low PB ratios and high ROE values - The portfolio is rebalanced periodically to maintain the desired characteristics[24][25] - **Model Evaluation**: The PB-ROE-50 portfolio demonstrates significant excess returns in certain stock pools, indicating its effectiveness in capturing valuation and profitability factors[24] 2. Model Name: Block Trade Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: This portfolio leverages the information embedded in block trades, focusing on stocks with high block trade transaction ratios and low short-term volatility[31] - **Model Construction Process**: - Stocks with high "block trade transaction ratios" and low "6-day transaction amount volatility" are identified - A monthly rebalancing strategy is applied to construct the portfolio - The methodology is detailed in a prior report dated August 5, 2023[31] - **Model Evaluation**: The portfolio effectively captures the excess information embedded in block trades, as evidenced by its positive performance[31] 3. Model Name: Private Placement Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: This portfolio is based on the event-driven strategy of private placements, considering factors such as market capitalization, rebalancing cycles, and position control[37] - **Model Construction Process**: - Stocks involved in private placements are selected, with the shareholder meeting announcement date serving as the event trigger - The portfolio construction incorporates market capitalization adjustments and periodic rebalancing - The methodology is detailed in a prior report dated November 26, 2023[37] - **Model Evaluation**: The portfolio's performance reflects the potential of private placement events to generate excess returns, though it experienced a drawdown in the current week[37] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. PB-ROE-50 Portfolio - **Excess Return (CSI 500)**: -2.18% (weekly)[25] - **Excess Return (CSI 800)**: 1.36% (weekly)[25] - **Excess Return (Entire Market)**: 1.23% (weekly)[25] 2. Block Trade Portfolio - **Excess Return (CSI All Share Index)**: 0.69% (weekly)[32] 3. Private Placement Portfolio - **Excess Return (CSI All Share Index)**: -1.58% (weekly)[38] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Beta Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the sensitivity of a stock's returns to market movements[20] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculated as the covariance of a stock's returns with the market index, divided by the variance of the market index - Formula: $ \beta = \frac{\text{Cov}(R_i, R_m)}{\text{Var}(R_m)} $ where $R_i$ is the stock return, and $R_m$ is the market return[20] - **Factor Evaluation**: The beta factor delivered a weekly return of 1.07%, indicating its positive contribution during the observed period[20] 2. Factor Name: Residual Volatility Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the idiosyncratic risk of a stock, independent of market movements[20] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Residual volatility is derived from the standard deviation of the residuals in a stock's regression against the market index - Formula: $ \sigma_{\text{residual}} = \sqrt{\frac{\sum (\epsilon_i^2)}{n-1}} $ where $\epsilon_i$ are the residuals from the regression[20] - **Factor Evaluation**: The residual volatility factor achieved a weekly return of 1.02%, reflecting its effectiveness in the current market environment[20] 3. Factor Name: Size Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects the performance difference between small-cap and large-cap stocks[20] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculated as the natural logarithm of a stock's market capitalization - Formula: $ \text{Size} = \ln(\text{Market Cap}) $[20] - **Factor Evaluation**: The size factor delivered a weekly return of 0.59%, indicating the dominance of large-cap stocks during the period[20] 4. Factor Name: Momentum Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the tendency of stocks with high past returns to continue performing well in the future[20] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculated as the cumulative return over a specified look-back period (e.g., 6 months or 12 months) - Formula: $ \text{Momentum} = \prod_{t=1}^{T} (1 + R_t) - 1 $ where $R_t$ is the daily return, and $T$ is the look-back period[20] - **Factor Evaluation**: The momentum factor experienced a significant negative return of -1.08%, indicating a reversal effect during the week[20] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Beta Factor - **Weekly Return**: 1.07%[20] 2. Residual Volatility Factor - **Weekly Return**: 1.02%[20] 3. Size Factor - **Weekly Return**: 0.59%[20] 4. Momentum Factor - **Weekly Return**: -1.08%[20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the small nucleic acid drug industry [1] Core Insights - The small nucleic acid drug sector is experiencing a paradigm shift from "symptomatic treatment" to "root cause treatment," marking it as the "third wave of pharmaceutical innovation" following small molecules and antibody drugs. This innovation is driven by the ability of RNA drugs to overcome traditional drug development limitations, significantly expanding target ranges and improving drug development efficiency [4][5] - The global small nucleic acid drug market is projected to reach USD 20.6 billion by 2029 and USD 54.9 billion by 2034, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.6%, indicating high growth potential [5] - The industry is entering a commercialization phase, with key players like Alnylam, Ionis, and Arrowhead leading the market, supported by significant investments from multinational corporations (MNCs) [5] Summary by Sections Market Growth and Trends - The small nucleic acid drug market is expected to see rapid expansion, particularly in the fields of rare diseases and major diseases such as cardiovascular and metabolic disorders [5] - Alnylam's core product, Amvuttra, is projected to exceed USD 2 billion in sales by 2025, contributing to the company's profitability [5] - Domestic companies in China are overcoming delivery technology barriers and demonstrating global competitiveness in target selection and molecular design [7] Technological Advancements - Breakthroughs in delivery technologies and chemical modifications are enhancing the efficacy and half-life of small nucleic acid drugs, improving patient compliance in chronic disease management [4][5] - Arrowhead's TRiM platform has successfully developed RNAi therapies for various diseases, expanding the application of small nucleic acid drugs beyond liver diseases [5] Industry Ecosystem - The domestic small nucleic acid drug industry has established a complete industrial chain, with upstream raw materials achieving localization, thus reducing research and development costs [9] - Significant business development (BD) transactions have occurred, with notable collaborations between Chinese companies and global pharmaceutical giants, marking a historic high for the industry [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the aerospace sector, particularly focusing on low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite communications and applications [5]. Core Insights - The construction of low Earth orbit satellite constellations is accelerating, with increasing competition for orbital and spectrum resources. LEO satellites are becoming a core direction for commercial space development due to their low latency and global coverage advantages [1][2]. - The industry is transitioning from traditional C and Ku frequency bands to higher frequency bands like Ka to support high-throughput data transmission. This shift is essential for meeting the growing demand for quality communication services in mobile applications and the Internet of Things (IoT) [1][2]. - The commercial application scenarios for satellites are expanding beyond traditional communication to include IoT, aviation, maritime, and emergency disaster reduction, indicating a significant market potential [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - LEO satellites are favored for real-time communication and global IoT connectivity due to their low transmission loss and delay. The competition for LEO orbital resources is intensifying as countries accelerate their satellite deployment efforts [1][19]. - The report highlights the importance of satellite platform and payload technology advancements, which are driving improvements in satellite performance and reductions in manufacturing costs [2][4]. 2. Commercial Applications - The report emphasizes the diversification of satellite applications, with examples like Starlink, which has developed a multi-faceted business model including home broadband, mobile services, and aviation maritime communication [3][66]. - The advancements in hyperspectral payload technology are opening new avenues for satellite applications in mineral exploration and agricultural monitoring [4][25]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the mobile application and IoT markets, as well as the satellite navigation sector, particularly in areas like vehicle networking and wearable device navigation [4][27]. - It identifies key companies to watch in the satellite and rocket sectors, including Shaanxi Huada, Shanghai Port, and others, as they are positioned to benefit from the upcoming surge in satellite launches [4][66].

Price Data Overview - In December 2025, the CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, up from 0.7% in the previous month, aligning with market expectations[2] - The core CPI remained stable at 1.2% year-on-year for three consecutive months[4] - The PPI decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, an improvement from the previous month's decline of 2.2%, while it increased by 0.2% month-on-month[2] CPI Analysis - The rise in CPI is primarily driven by a low base effect and an increase in food prices at year-end, with food prices rising by 1.1% year-on-year in December[4] - Non-food prices remained stable at a year-on-year increase of 0.8%[4] - December food prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, compared to a decrease of 0.6% in the same month last year[4] PPI Insights - The month-on-month PPI increase of 0.2% in December is attributed to rising international prices of non-ferrous metals and the ongoing effects of domestic "anti-involution" policies[6][7] - Prices in the non-ferrous metal mining and smelting sectors rose by 3.7% and 2.8% month-on-month, respectively[7] - The coal mining sector saw a month-on-month price increase of 1.3%, marking five consecutive months of growth[7] Future Outlook - For 2026, the domestic price environment is expected to continue improving, with the CPI likely to stabilize around 0.7%[9] - The ongoing price increases in upstream materials, such as non-ferrous metals and storage chips, may lead to downstream price adjustments in consumer goods[9] - The "anti-involution" policies are anticipated to further support price recovery in upstream and midstream sectors throughout the year[9]

Core Insights - The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to soon rule on the legality of Trump's tariff package, with market expectations indicating a 76% probability of a ruling against Trump [2][4][6] - If the tariffs are ruled illegal, the Trump administration may respond in two phases: short-term implementation of tariffs up to 15% under the Trade Act of 1974, and long-term initiation of Section 301/232 investigations to maintain trade negotiation outcomes [2][8][9] Group 1: Supreme Court Predictions - The Supreme Court is likely to rule that Trump's tariffs are illegal, as indicated by previous losses in lower courts and the skepticism expressed by justices during oral arguments [4][5][6] - The court's decision date is anticipated to be January 9, 2026, which could lead to significant market volatility depending on the ruling [4][6] Group 2: Government Response to Potential Ruling - Should the tariffs be deemed illegal, the Trump administration is expected to accept the ruling and utilize alternative legal frameworks to impose tariffs, specifically Sections 301, 232, and 122 of the Trade Act [7][8][9] - The administration's strategy will involve a two-step approach: immediate tariffs under Section 122 and subsequent investigations under Sections 301 and 232 to ensure continuity in trade policy [8][9] Group 3: Market Reactions to Tariff Ruling - The impact on the U.S. stock market is expected to be neutral to slightly positive, benefiting tariff-sensitive sectors such as manufacturing and retail, while small-cap stocks may also see gains [3][12][13] - The bond market may experience limited short-term pressure due to the Treasury's ample cash reserves, but long-term uncertainties regarding tariff revenues could increase debt deficit pressures [3][12][14] - Gold prices may initially decline due to reduced tariff policy uncertainty, but potential declines in tariff revenue could negatively impact the dollar's credibility, thus supporting gold prices [3][12][14]