Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight" [5] Core Insights - In the first ten months of 2025, the total area of residential land transactions in 100 cities decreased by 9% year-on-year, while the average floor price increased by 15% [1][51] - The top three companies in terms of new land reserve value from January to October 2025 are China Overseas Land & Investment (119.9 billion), China Merchants Shekou (103.4 billion), and Greentown China (65.1 billion) [2][87] - The core 30 cities saw a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 3% in residential land transaction area, but a 22% increase in average price [2][3] Summary by Sections Land Supply and Demand - In the first ten months of 2025, the total land supply in 100 cities was 1.113 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 12.7%, while the total land transaction area was 946 million square meters, down 7% [8] - The supply of residential land in 100 cities for the same period was 239 million square meters, a decrease of 19.1% year-on-year, with a transaction area of 184 million square meters, down 9.3% [18] Land Transaction Prices - The average floor price of residential land in 100 cities for the first ten months of 2025 was 6,597 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.9% [51][62] - In the core 30 cities, the average floor price for residential land transactions was 11,423 yuan per square meter, up 21.8% year-on-year [3][95] Top 50 Real Estate Companies' Land Acquisition - The top 50 real estate companies saw a 55% year-on-year increase in new land reserve value, totaling 908.4 billion yuan from January to October 2025 [78] - The top three companies by new land reserve area are China Overseas Land & Investment (4.15 million square meters), Poly Developments (3.51 million square meters), and China Merchants Shekou (3.07 million square meters) [2][87] Core 30 Cities Land Transaction Situation - In October 2025, the core 30 cities recorded 133 residential land transactions, with a total area of 855 million square meters, down 43% year-on-year [92] - The cumulative total land transaction price in the core 30 cities from January to October 2025 was 946.5 billion yuan, an increase of 17.8% year-on-year [95][102] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with strong brand reputation and sales performance in core cities, such as Poly Developments and China Merchants Shekou [4][118] - Consider companies with rich existing resources and operational brand competitiveness, like China Resources Land and Shanghai Lingang [4][118] - Look for long-term growth potential in property services, recommending companies like China Merchants Jinling and Greentown Services [4][118]

Core Insights - The report suggests that the current market position may be the starting point of a long-term bull market, supported by gradual improvements in fundamentals and industry highlights [3][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of time over space in the current bull market, indicating that the duration of the bull market may be more significant than the magnitude of the increase [3][4] Industry Research Construction Materials - The investment strategy focuses on three main lines: 1) Real estate chain recovery, emphasizing resilient consumer building material leaders like Dongfang Yuhong and Beixin Building Materials, which are expected to have greater profit elasticity amid rising demand for stock updates 2) Overseas growth, targeting companies with established advantages and mature operations abroad, such as Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement 3) Corporate transformation, highlighting construction companies actively restructuring and innovating during industry downturns, like Shanghai Port and Hongrun Construction [10] Machinery Manufacturing - The investment strategy revolves around three major themes: 1) Cycle recovery in engineering machinery, with internationalization, electrification, and intelligentization opening new growth spaces 2) Data center power generation equipment, driven by increased electricity demand 3) Nuclear fusion, entering a phase of capital expenditure expansion with high technical barriers [11] Company Research Aidi Precision (603638.SH) - Aidi Precision reported revenue of 2.37 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, and a net profit of 320 million yuan, up 12.6% year-on-year - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the engineering machinery sector, with continued growth in demand for its hydraulic components and new products like industrial robots and RV reducers [12] NetEase-S (9999.HK) - NetEase's Q3 2025 game revenue fell short of expectations due to the deferral of income recognition - The company maintains revenue forecasts of 114.5 billion yuan for 2025, 123.6 billion yuan for 2026, and 132.2 billion yuan for 2027, with a focus on new game releases expected to contribute significantly in 2026 [13] Yidu Technology (2158.HK) - Yidu Technology has made progress in AI medical innovation, but revenue forecasts for FY26 and FY27 have been reduced by 19.4% and 24.9% respectively - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 0.08 billion yuan in FY28, maintaining a "buy" rating despite the adjustments [14] NVIDIA (NVDA.O) - NVIDIA's FY26 Q3 performance exceeded market expectations, with a projected GAAP net profit of $113.88 billion for FY2026 - The company has raised its FY2027-2028 net profit forecasts by 14.1% and 14.7%, driven by strong demand for AI computing [15] Lenovo Group (0992.HK) - Lenovo reported revenue of $20.452 billion for FY26 Q2, a 15% year-on-year increase, with adjusted net profit rising 25% - AI-related business revenue accounted for 30% of total revenue, up 13 percentage points year-on-year, despite downward adjustments in profit forecasts for FY26 to FY28 [16]

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both the power equipment and environmental protection sectors [1]. Core Views - The hydrogen ammonia and wind power sectors are expected to benefit from China's future industrial policies and the EU's carbon tariff by 2026, leading to increased investment opportunities. The global shipping industry is accelerating its decarbonization, with green methanol prices likely to remain high due to rising demand and limited supply [3]. - In the U.S., the ongoing electricity shortage presents opportunities for rebound in related stocks, particularly in the overseas energy storage and SST sectors. Key companies to watch include Sunshine Power, Jinpan Technology, and others [3]. - Domestic energy storage is projected to grow significantly, with Heilongjiang Province aiming for over 6GW of installed capacity by 2027. The independent energy storage market is expected to maintain a good level of bidding in 2026 [4]. - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a tightening supply-demand dynamic, with significant growth expected in both domestic and overseas markets. Key investment opportunities are identified in lithium mines and the separator segment [4][20]. Summary by Sections Wind Power - In 2024, China's onshore wind power is expected to add 75.8GW of capacity, a year-on-year increase of 9.68%, while offshore wind power is projected to add 4.0GW, a decrease of 40.85% [6]. - The public tender capacity for wind power in 2024 is 164.1GW, a 90% increase year-on-year, with onshore wind accounting for 152.8GW [9]. Lithium Battery - The domestic production of lithium carbonate is expected to remain stable, with strong demand from the power battery sector driven by the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle market [20]. - The supply of lithium hexafluorophosphate remains tight, with prices expected to continue rising due to increased demand from downstream applications [23]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Goldwind Technology, Sunshine Power, and Ningde Times, which are well-positioned to benefit from the trends in wind power and lithium battery sectors [19][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yidu Technology (2158.HK) [4] Core Insights - Yidu Technology has made significant advancements in AI medical innovation, including deep involvement in the National AI Application Pilot Base in Beijing and winning a Phase III clinical research project [1][2] - The company has expanded its health management platform and solutions by launching "Hui Min Bao" insurance services in Hebei and Guangzhou, enhancing its service reach [3] - Revenue and profit forecasts have been adjusted downward due to slower-than-expected progress in the AI digital therapy business, but the long-term market share is expected to improve [4] Summary by Sections AI Medical Innovation - Yidu Technology is a core partner in the National AI Application Pilot Base in Beijing, focusing on building a "data-algorithm-scenario" closed-loop for AI medical innovation [1] - The company has developed AI recruitment agents to improve clinical trial participant recruitment efficiency, successfully implemented in six projects [1] Clinical Research Projects - The company won a Phase III clinical research project for SMR001 eye drops, valued at approximately RMB 55.82 million, which is expected to enhance its market share in the long term [2] Health Management Solutions - The launch of "Hui Min Bao" in Hebei and Guangzhou has attracted over 200,000 participants on the first day, with the company serving over 40 million users across multiple provinces [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 have been reduced by 19.4% and 24.9% to RMB 797 million and RMB 896 million, respectively, while FY2028 revenue is projected at RMB 1.007 billion [4][5] - The net profit forecast for FY2026 and FY2027 has been adjusted to -RMB 85 million and -RMB 36 million, with a positive net profit of RMB 8 million expected in FY2028 [4][5]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a pullback this week, with major indices declining due to decreased market risk appetite. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.7%, while the ChiNext Index dropped by 6.2%. The overall valuation of the entire A-share market is at the 83rd percentile since 2010 [1][10][12] - In terms of industry performance, the banking, media, and food and beverage sectors showed relatively smaller declines, with respective changes of -0.9%, -1.3%, and -1.4%. In contrast, sectors such as power equipment, comprehensive, and basic chemicals faced larger declines, with changes of -10.5%, -9.2%, and -7.5% [1][10][14] Group 2 - Recent significant events include China's stern diplomatic response to Japan's remarks, the Netherlands suspending an administrative order against ASML, and Russia's announcement of a visa-free policy for Chinese citizens [2][19][20] - Economic data released this week showed that the one-year and five-year LPR rates in China remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively. In the U.S., September's non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, with an increase of 119,000 jobs, leading to speculation that the Fed may delay interest rate cuts in December [2][21] Group 3 - The market is still in a bull phase, but short-term fluctuations are expected. The Shanghai Composite Index saw a weekly decline of 3.9%, while the STAR 50 Index dropped by 5.54%. The volatility in the A-share market is influenced by fluctuations in overseas markets, particularly in the tech sector [3][24][25] - The current market position may represent the starting point of a long-term bull market, supported by improving fundamentals and industry highlights. However, short-term catalysts may be lacking, leading to a phase of consolidation [3][25] Group 4 - Short-term investment focus should be on defensive and consumer sectors, while mid-term attention should remain on TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and advanced manufacturing sectors. High-dividend and consumer stocks are expected to perform better during market fluctuations [3][35][38] - The TMT sector currently has several catalysts, including Alibaba's launch of a new AI model and Oracle's significant growth in remaining performance obligations. If the market shifts to a fundamentals-driven phase, advanced manufacturing is likely to become a key focus [3][40][43]

- The report discusses the "Volume Timing Signal" model, which indicates a cautious view for all indices as of November 21, 2025[24][25] - The "Number of Rising Stocks in the CSI 300 Index" sentiment indicator is used to gauge market sentiment by calculating the proportion of stocks with positive returns over a certain period[25][26] - The "Number of Rising Stocks in the CSI 300 Index" timing tracking involves smoothing the indicator over two different periods to capture its trend, with a bullish view when the short-term line is above the long-term line[27][28][29] - The "Moving Average Sentiment Indicator" uses the eight moving averages system to assess the trend state of the CSI 300 Index, assigning values based on the position of the moving average range[33][34][35] - The "Moving Average Sentiment Indicator" shows that the CSI 300 Index is currently in a non-prosperous sentiment range as of November 21, 2025[33][36][37] Model Backtest Results - Volume Timing Signal: All indices show a cautious view as of November 21, 2025[24][25] - Number of Rising Stocks in the CSI 300 Index: The indicator has recently declined, with the proportion of rising stocks slightly above 50%, indicating cooling market sentiment[25][26] - Number of Rising Stocks in the CSI 300 Index Timing Tracking: Both the fast and slow lines are declining, with the fast line below the slow line, indicating a cautious view for the near future[27][28][29] - Moving Average Sentiment Indicator: The CSI 300 Index is in a non-prosperous sentiment range as of November 21, 2025[33][36][37] Factor Construction and Evaluation - Cross-sectional volatility: The recent week saw a decline in cross-sectional volatility for CSI 300 and CSI 500 index constituents, indicating a deteriorating short-term alpha environment, while the CSI 1000 index constituents saw an increase, indicating an improving short-term alpha environment[2][38] - Time-series volatility: The recent week saw a decline in time-series volatility for CSI 300 index constituents, indicating a deteriorating alpha environment, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 index constituents saw an increase, indicating an improving alpha environment[2][39][40] Factor Backtest Results - Cross-sectional volatility: - CSI 300: 2.28% (recent quarter average), 83.44% (recent quarter average as a percentile of the past two years) - CSI 500: 2.44% (recent quarter average), 78.57% (recent quarter average as a percentile of the past two years) - CSI 1000: 2.60% (recent quarter average), 83.67% (recent quarter average as a percentile of the past two years)[39] - Time-series volatility: - CSI 300: 0.73% (recent quarter average), 77.23% (recent quarter average as a percentile of the past two years) - CSI 500: 0.53% (recent quarter average), 80.16% (recent quarter average as a percentile of the past two years) - CSI 1000: 0.27% (recent quarter average), 82.07% (recent quarter average as a percentile of the past two years)[42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [5] Core Views - The international oil market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, leading to downward pressure on oil prices. As of November 21, 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were reported at $62.51 and $57.98 per barrel, reflecting declines of 2.8% and 3.3% respectively from the previous week. The OPEC+ group plans to pause production increases from January to March 2026, which is expected to alleviate the oversupply situation [1][4] - The "Big Three" oil companies in China (China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, and CNOOC) have demonstrated resilience during the current downturn in oil prices, with their net profits declining less than many international oil giants. For the first three quarters of 2025, their net profits fell by 4.9%, 32.2%, and 12.6% respectively, showcasing their ability to navigate through cyclical challenges [2] - Anticipated cold winter conditions in 2025 are expected to significantly boost natural gas demand, benefiting the natural gas business of the "Big Three." The companies are enhancing market expansion efforts, leading to rapid growth in natural gas sales. The ongoing market reforms are expected to improve pricing flexibility and profitability in their natural gas operations [3] Summary by Sections Oil Supply and Demand - The global oil supply has shifted from a tightening to an oversupply situation, with the surplus increasing from 500,000 barrels per day in April to 2 million barrels per day in October 2025. OPEC+ has adjusted its production increase plans, reflecting a desire to stabilize oil prices [1] Company Performance - In Q3 2025, the "Big Three" oil companies' net profits showed a smaller decline compared to international peers, indicating their strong performance amid falling oil prices. Their production levels and cost control capabilities have allowed them to maintain profitability above historical levels [2] Natural Gas Outlook - The expectation of a cold winter is likely to drive up natural gas demand, with the "Big Three" positioned to capitalize on this through increased sales and improved pricing structures due to market reforms [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a continued positive outlook for the "Big Three" and the oil service sector, alongside favorable conditions for chemical products in the long term. Specific companies to watch include China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, CNOOC, and various subsidiaries involved in oil services and refining [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, both the convertible bond market and the equity market declined. Since the beginning of 2025, both markets have been on an upward trend. Currently, the remaining term of outstanding convertible bonds has shortened, and the number of high - quality individual bonds has decreased. High - price and high - valuation convertible bonds may face certain adjustment pressures, and trading convertible bonds is quite difficult. It is recommended to comprehensively judge based on convertible bond terms and the situation of the underlying stocks, select bonds in a refined manner, and pay attention to new bond opportunities in industries with high prosperity [4] Summary by Directory Market行情 - From November 17 to November 21, 2025 (5 trading days), the change rate of the CSI Convertible Bond Index was - 1.78% (last week's change rate was + 0.52%), and the change of the CSI All - Share Index was - 5.05% (last week's change rate was - 0.53%). Since 2025, the change rate of the CSI Convertible Bond Index has been + 16.50%, and the change rate of the CSI All - Share Index has been + 17.36% [1] - By rating, high - rated bonds (AAA), medium - high - rated bonds (AA+), medium - rated bonds (AA), medium - low - rated bonds (AA -), and low - rated bonds (AA - and below) all declined this week, with medium - rated bonds having the largest decline [1] - By convertible bond scale, large - scale convertible bonds (bond balance > 2 billion yuan), medium - large - scale convertible bonds (balance between 1.5 and 2 billion yuan), medium - scale convertible bonds (balance between 1 and 1.5 billion yuan), small - medium - scale convertible bonds (balance between 0.5 and 1 billion yuan), and small - scale convertible bonds (balance < 0.5 billion yuan) all declined this week, with medium - scale convertible bonds having the largest decline [2] - By parity, ultra - high - parity bonds (conversion value > 130 yuan), high - parity bonds (conversion value between 120 and 130 yuan), medium - high - parity bonds (conversion value between 110 and 120 yuan), medium - parity bonds (conversion value between 100 and 110 yuan), medium - low - parity bonds (conversion value between 90 and 100 yuan), low - parity bonds (conversion value between 80 and 90 yuan), and ultra - low - parity bonds (conversion value < 80 yuan) had different performance this week, with ultra - high - parity bonds having the highest increase [2] Convertible Bond Price, Parity, and Conversion Premium Rate - As of November 21, 2025, there were 411 outstanding convertible bonds (412 at the end of last week), with a balance of 563.719 billion yuan (566.85 billion yuan at the end of last week) [3] - The average convertible bond price was 131.61 yuan (133.30 yuan at the end of last week), and the percentile was 96.56% (from the beginning of 2023 to November 21, 2025) [3] - The average convertible bond parity was 101.20 yuan (105.52 yuan at the end of last week), and the percentile was 88.67% [3] - The average convertible bond conversion premium rate was 31.88% (27.12% at the end of last week), and the percentile was 38.31% [3] Convertible Bond Performance and Allocation Direction - Currently, the remaining term of outstanding convertible bonds has shortened, and the number of high - quality individual bonds has decreased. High - price and high - valuation convertible bonds may face certain adjustment pressures, and trading convertible bonds is quite difficult. It is recommended to comprehensively judge based on convertible bond terms and the situation of the underlying stocks, select bonds in a refined manner, and pay attention to new bond opportunities in industries with high prosperity [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report From November 17 to November 21, 2025, the secondary - market prices of China's listed public REITs showed a fluctuating downward trend. The trading volume and main - force capital inflow increased compared to the previous week, and there were 2 REITs with updated project status in the primary market [1][2][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Secondary Market 3.1.1 Price Trends - **At the large - scale asset level**: The secondary - market prices of listed public REITs in China showed a fluctuating downward trend. The weighted REITs index closed at 182.16, with a weekly return of - 1.02%. Among mainstream large - scale assets, the return ranking from high to low was: pure bonds > gold > REITs > crude oil > US stocks > A - shares > convertible bonds [11]. - **At the underlying asset level**: Both the secondary - market prices of property - right and franchise - right REITs declined. The weighted index of property - right REITs closed at 154.26, with a return of - 1.11%; the weighted index of franchise - right REITs closed at 130.06, with a return of - 1.12%. In terms of underlying asset types, water - conservancy facilities REITs had the largest increase, and the top three in terms of weekly return were water - conservancy facilities, ecological and environmental protection, and transportation infrastructure [16][18]. - **At the single - REIT level**: This week, public REITs showed mixed performance, with 9 rising and 68 falling. The top three in terms of increase were CICC Yizhuang Industrial Park REIT, Ping An Ningbo Jiaotou REIT, and Huaxia Nanjing Transportation Expressway REIT; the top three in terms of decrease were CICC Chongqing Liangjiang REIT, CITIC Construction Investment Mingyang Smart New Energy REIT, and China Merchants Expressway REIT [23]. 3.1.2 Trading Volume and Turnover Rate - **At the underlying asset level**: The trading volume of public REITs this week was 2.38 billion yuan, and the new - type infrastructure REITs led in the average daily turnover rate. The top three in terms of trading volume were transportation infrastructure, affordable rental housing, and park infrastructure; the top three in terms of average daily turnover rate were new - type infrastructure, water - conservancy facilities, and affordable rental housing [25]. - **At the single - REIT level**: The trading volume and turnover rate of single REITs continued to show differentiation. The top three in terms of trading volume were Huaxia Hefei High - tech REIT, Huaxia Fund CR Land Youchao REIT, and Huatai Jiangsu Jiaokong REIT; the top three in terms of trading amount were Huaxia Fund CR Land Youchao REIT, Huatai Jiangsu Jiaokong REIT, and Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT; the top three in terms of turnover rate were Huaxia Fund CR Land Youchao REIT, Huaxia Zhonghai Commercial REIT, and Huaxia Hefei High - tech REIT [28]. 3.1.3 Main - Force Inflow and Block - Trade Situation - **Main - force inflow situation**: The total main - force inflow this week was 17.32 million yuan, and the market trading enthusiasm increased compared to the previous week. The top three in terms of main - force inflow among different underlying asset REITs were consumer infrastructure, new - type infrastructure, and transportation infrastructure. The top three single REITs in terms of main - force inflow were Huatai Jiangsu Jiaokong REIT, China Merchants Fund Shekou Rental Housing REIT, and Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT [31]. - **Block - trade situation**: The total block - trade volume this week reached 368.22 million yuan, a decrease compared to the previous week. There were block - trade transactions on 5 trading days, and the block - trade turnover on November 21, 2025, was the highest within the period. The top three single REITs in terms of block - trade turnover were China Merchants Expressway REIT, Huaxia Fund CR Land Youchao REIT, and BOC Sinotrans Warehouse Logistics REIT [32]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Listed Projects As of November 21, 2025, there were 77 public REITs in China, with a total issuance scale of 199.301 billion yuan. Among them, transportation infrastructure had the largest issuance scale at 68.771 billion yuan, followed by park infrastructure REITs at 32.933 billion yuan. No new REITs were listed this week [37][39]. 3.2.2 Pending - Listing Projects There were 18 REITs in a pending - listing state, including 11 initial - offering REITs and 7 pending - expansion REITs. This week, the project status of Huaxia CNNC Clean Energy Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund (initial offering) was updated to "feedback received", and the project status of AVIC CNNC Group Energy Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund (initial offering) was updated to "declared" [42].

2025 年 11 月 22 日 总量研究 信用债发行量环比增加，各行业信用利差涨跌互现 ——信用债周度观察（20251117-20251121） 要点 1、 一级市场 注：本篇报告的信用债口径包括定向工具、短期融资券、公司债、金融债（不含 同业存单和政金债）、中期票据、企业债。 2025 年 11 月 17 日至 11 月 21 日（以下简称"本周"），信用债共发行 455 只，发行规模总计 5812.11 亿元，环比增加 27.63%。 发行规模方面，本周，产业债共发行 233 只，发行规模达 2515.05 亿元，环比 增加 48.22%,占本周信用债发行总规模的比例为 43.27%；城投债共发行 166 只， 发行规模达 1036.56 亿元，环比增加 26.83%,占本周信用债发行总规模的比例为 17.83%；金融债共发行 56 只，发行规模达 2260.50 亿元，环比增加 10.83%, 占本周信用债发行总规模的比例为 38.89%。 发行期限方面，本周信用债整体的平均发行期限为 2.83 年，其中，产业债平均 发行期限为 2.40 年、城投债平均发行期限为 3.48 年、金融债平均发行期限为 ...