2025 年 11 月 27 日 公司研究 25Q3 盈利能力持续增长，国际业务与酒管业务表现亮眼 ——同程旅行（0780.HK）2025 年三季度业绩点评 要点 事件：公司发布 25Q3 业绩公告，25Q3 实现营收 55.09 亿元，同比+10.4%；实 现经调整净利润 10.60 亿元，同比+16.5%；经调整净利润率 19.2%，同比 +1.0pcts。 点评： 25Q3 核心 OTA 业务稳健增长，国际业务与酒店管理业务表现亮眼：25Q3 公司 核心 OTA 业务营收达到 46.09 亿元，同比+14.9%。分业务板块：1）25Q3 住宿 预订营收达到 15.79 亿元，同比+14.7%，主要系暑期旺季需求稳健，日均间夜 量创历史新高，同时公司重点满足用户对高品质酒店的需求，推动了平台上高品 质酒店预订量同比提升，ADR 亦持续改善。2）25Q3 交通票务营收达到 22.09 亿元，同比+9.0%。主要系公司持续丰富增值产品与服务，且国际机票业务保持 快速增长（25Q3 国际机票业务营收占交通票务总收入比例达 6%，同比提升 2.0pcts）。3）25Q3 其他业务营收达到 8.21 亿元，同比+3 ...

Retail Data Overview - In September 2025, U.S. retail sales increased by 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 0.4% and down from the previous 0.6%[2] - Core retail sales (excluding autos and gas) rose by 0.3%, matching expectations but revised down from a previous 0.6%[2] Market Reaction - Following the retail data release, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices rose by 1.43%, 0.91%, and 0.67% respectively[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 3 basis points to 4.01%, while the 2-year yield also decreased by 3 basis points to 3.43%[3] Consumer Sentiment and Spending - Consumer confidence index dropped from 58.2 to 55.1 in September, indicating reduced consumer spending willingness[7] - Non-essential spending decreased in categories such as non-store retail (-0.7%), sports and hobbies (-2.5%), and clothing (-0.7%)[5][9] Economic Outlook - The report suggests that the combination of tariff policies and government shutdown risks has negatively impacted consumer spending capacity[4] - Despite the weak September data, the potential for a December interest rate cut remains uncertain, with a 50% probability forecasted[4][12] Future Consumption Trends - The fourth quarter is traditionally a peak consumption season in the U.S., with events like Thanksgiving and Christmas expected to boost demand[8] - The easing of trade tensions and the resumption of government operations are anticipated to improve consumer sentiment moving forward[8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - The company reported significant revenue growth of 144% year-on-year, with total revenue reaching 171 million RMB in Q3 2025. Product revenue surged by 429% to 79 million RMB, driven by increased sales of Robotaxi and Robobus. Service revenue also grew by 67% to 92 million RMB, primarily due to smart data and driver assistance operational support services [1][2]. - The Robotaxi-related business saw a remarkable revenue increase of 761% year-on-year, amounting to 35.3 million RMB [1][2]. - The company's gross profit for Q3 2025 was 56 million RMB, reflecting a substantial increase of 1133.55% year-on-year, with a gross margin improvement of 26.41 percentage points to 32.93% [1]. - The net loss narrowed by 70.53% year-on-year to 307 million RMB [1]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are set at 587 million RMB, 1.13 billion RMB, and 2.02 billion RMB for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 62.4%, 92.8%, and 78.4% [5][9]. - The company anticipates achieving single-vehicle breakeven in Abu Dhabi as it expands its fleet to over 500 vehicles by 2026 [3]. Business Expansion and Operations - The company has obtained autonomous operation licenses in eight countries, with a Robotaxi fleet nearing 750 vehicles. It has commenced pure unmanned commercial operations in Abu Dhabi, collaborating with Uber and TXAI [2][3]. - The company is actively expanding its operations in the Middle East, particularly in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Riyadh, where it currently operates over 100 Robotaxis [3]. Financial Metrics - The company’s financial metrics indicate a projected net loss of 1.55 billion RMB for FY2025, with an expected EPS of -1.5 RMB [5][9]. - The P/S ratio is forecasted to decrease from 33 in FY2025 to 10 in FY2027, reflecting anticipated revenue growth and improved market positioning [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the mechanical industry [1] Core Views - The mechanical export data for October is affected by high year-on-year bases and calendar effects, leading to a significant decline in export growth rates for various products [3][4] - The export amounts for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers to North America have shown a continuous decline, with electric tools experiencing a six-month consecutive drop [4][7] - Emerging markets in Africa, Asia, and Latin America are driving growth in capital goods exports, particularly for forklifts and industrial sewing machines [5][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Consumer Goods - The export growth rates for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers from January to October 2025 are -0.4%, -6%, and 37% respectively, with October showing declines of -17%, -16%, and -15% [3] - Exports to North America for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers have seen year-to-date declines of -19%, -9%, and -9% respectively [4] - Companies such as QuanFeng Holdings, JuXing Technology, and Greebo are recommended for investment focus [7] Capital Goods - Forklifts, machine tools, and industrial sewing machines have varying export markets, with Asia being the largest for industrial sewing machines [5] - The cumulative export growth rates for forklifts, machine tools, industrial sewing machines, and mining machinery from January to October 2025 are 0%, 13%, 13%, and 21% respectively [6] - The report suggests focusing on companies like Anhui Heli, Hangcha Group, and Jack Group for potential investments in industrial capital goods [8] Mining Machinery - The cumulative export growth rate for mining machinery is 21% from January to October 2025, indicating a positive outlook for global mining capital expenditures [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5] Core Insights - The cement and asphalt operating rates have dropped to the lowest levels for the same period in five years, indicating a significant slowdown in construction activity [24][44] - The financing environment for small and medium enterprises has improved, with the BCI index rising to 52.41 in October 2025, up 10.15% month-on-month [11][20] - The report highlights a mixed performance in commodity prices, with some materials like rebar increasing by 1.89% while others like cement saw a decrease of 0.47% [24][63] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI index for small and medium enterprises reached 52.41 in October 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10.15% [11] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -2.0 percentage points in October 2025, down 0.80 percentage points from the previous month [20] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Cement and asphalt operating rates have decreased significantly, with cement operating rates at 31.28%, down 10.8 percentage points from the previous week [63] - National real estate new construction area from January to October 2025 showed a year-on-year decline of 19.80% [24] Completion Chain - The gross profit margins for titanium dioxide and flat glass are at low levels, with titanium dioxide showing a gross profit of -1526 yuan/ton and flat glass at -58 yuan/ton [81] Industrial Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is at a five-year high, while the operating rate for all-steel tires is at 61.31%, down 3.19 percentage points [75] - Tungsten concentrate prices have reached a new high since 2012, indicating strong demand in specific sectors [2] Price Comparison - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is currently at 50 yuan/ton, reflecting market dynamics [3] - The Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel price difference is at a five-year low, indicating potential pricing pressures [3] Valuation Metrics - The report notes that the PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.54, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [4]

2025 年 11 月 25 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 行业研究 【医药生物】小核酸药物风起云涌，下一代创新药浪潮呼之欲出——医药生物行业跨 市场周报（20251124）(增持) 本周观点：小核酸药物风起云涌，下一代创新药浪潮呼之欲出。近期，全球范围内的 小核酸药物领域频频出现新进展，引发产业界和投资界的高度关注。小核酸药物已从 概念验证进入产业崛起前夜，行业迎来"技术突破+商业兑现"双主线驱动的黄金发 展期。国内药企研发进展加速，2025 年以来大批企业进入临床研究阶段，建议重点 关注技术平台领先且管线差异化布局的龙头创新药企业，以及有望受益于产业整体景 气度上行的创新产业链企业，建议关注恒瑞医药（A+H）、信达生物（H）、药明康 德（A+H）、前沿生物、成都先导、键凯科技等。 【房地产】加速聚焦核心，1-10 月核心 6 城土拍总价占比近半——土地市场月度跟踪 报告（2025 年 10 月）(增持) 10 月，光大核心 30 城成交宅地 133 宗，同比-33.2%，成交楼面均价 9,279 元/平， 同比-4.5%。1-10 月，百城宅地成交建面同比-9%，成交楼面均价同比+15%，核心 6 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including Tian Shi Li, Xin Da Biology, and WuXi AppTec, with a focus on the innovative drug industry and high-end medical devices [3][25]. Core Insights - The small nucleic acid drug sector is experiencing significant advancements, marking the dawn of a new wave of innovative drugs. The industry is entering a golden development period driven by technological breakthroughs and commercial validation, with a recommendation to focus on leading innovative drug companies and those benefiting from the overall industry upturn [1][20][24]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The A-share pharmaceutical and biotechnology index fell by 4.32%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.54 percentage points, while outperforming the ChiNext index by 1.92 percentage points, ranking 30th among 31 sub-industries. The H-share Hang Seng Healthcare Index dropped by 7.5%, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 2.41 percentage points [1][15][9]. R&D Progress - Recent IND applications have been initiated for Heng Rui Medicine's HRS-1358 and HRS-3738, and clinical applications for SHR-9539 and JS207 have also been newly undertaken. Additionally, Zheng Da Tian Qing's TQB2934 is in Phase I clinical trials, while Gan Li Pharmaceutical's Bo Fan Gu Lu Tai is in Phase III [1][28]. Key Company Recommendations - The report highlights key companies to watch, including Heng Rui Medicine (A+H), Xin Da Biology (H), WuXi AppTec (A+H), Qian Yan Biology, Chengdu Xian Dao, and Jian Kai Technology, focusing on those with leading technology platforms and differentiated pipelines [1][25][24]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of clinical value in the pharmaceutical sector, suggesting that investments should focus on innovative drug chains and medical devices that meet clinical needs. The strategy is based on a three-stage clinical value framework [2][24]. Financial Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for key companies, with Tian Shi Li projected at 0.64 CNY for 2024, Xin Da Biology at -0.06 CNY, and WuXi AppTec at 3.27 CNY for 2024, indicating a positive outlook for several firms [3].

| 总量研究 2 | | --- | | 上周观点 2 | | 重点报告 2 | | 行业研究 4 | | 上周观点 4 | | 重点报告 5 | | 公司研究 6 | | 重点报告 6 | | 重点报告摘要 7 | | 总量研究 7 | | 行业研究 9 | | 公司研究 11 | 一周观点 总量研究 上周观点 | 领域 | 一周观点 | 分析师 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场大方向或仍处在牛市中，不过短期或进入宽幅震荡阶段。与往年牛市相比，当前指数仍然 | | | 策略 | 有相当大的上涨空间，但是在国家对于"慢牛"的政策指引之下，牛市持续的时间或许要比涨 | 张宇生 | | | 幅更加重要。不过短期来看，市场可能缺乏强力催化，叠加年末部分投资者在行为上可能趋于 | | | | 稳健，股市短期或以震荡蓄势为主。 | | | | 上周黄金价格上涨，国内权益市场指数集体回调,医药主题基金表现占优，TMT 主题基金回撤 | | | 金工 | 明显。不同投资范围的 ETF 资金均呈现流入，TMT、科创主题 ETF 受被动资金加仓，以恒生 | 祁嫣然 | | | 互联网 ETF 为代表的港 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a 10.4% year-on-year increase in revenue to 11.43 billion yuan and a 12.1% increase in net profit to 760 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - The company is expanding its overseas business, achieving a 78.9% year-on-year increase in overseas revenue to 290 million yuan in the first half of 2025, and has secured significant contracts in Africa and Europe [2] - The company has successfully won a bid for a low-temperature nitrogen system project in the nuclear fusion field, indicating strong recognition of its capabilities in this emerging sector [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 4.1 billion yuan, a 13.1% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 280 million yuan, up 16.8% year-on-year. The gross margin was 20.5%, up 0.6 percentage points, and the net margin was 7.7%, up 0.5 percentage points [1] Overseas Expansion - The company has made significant strides in international markets, including signing a contract for a 22,000 cubic meter air separation project in Africa and receiving an order for 100 large-volume low-temperature tanks from overseas clients [2] Nuclear Fusion Sector - The successful bid for the low-temperature nitrogen system project for the BEST nuclear fusion experimental device highlights the company's growing presence and expertise in the nuclear fusion sector, with increased bidding activity in this area [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report slightly lowers the profit forecast for 2025-2027 by 5.5%, 2.3%, and 0.4% to 1.06 billion, 1.29 billion, and 1.49 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of 1.09, 1.31, and 1.52 yuan [4][5]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight" [5] Core Insights - In the first ten months of 2025, the total area of residential land transactions in 100 cities decreased by 9% year-on-year, while the average floor price increased by 15% [1][51] - The top three companies in terms of new land reserve value from January to October 2025 are China Overseas Land & Investment (119.9 billion), China Merchants Shekou (103.4 billion), and Greentown China (65.1 billion) [2][87] - The core 30 cities saw a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 3% in residential land transaction area, but a 22% increase in average price [2][3] Summary by Sections Land Supply and Demand - In the first ten months of 2025, the total land supply in 100 cities was 1.113 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 12.7%, while the total land transaction area was 946 million square meters, down 7% [8] - The supply of residential land in 100 cities for the same period was 239 million square meters, a decrease of 19.1% year-on-year, with a transaction area of 184 million square meters, down 9.3% [18] Land Transaction Prices - The average floor price of residential land in 100 cities for the first ten months of 2025 was 6,597 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.9% [51][62] - In the core 30 cities, the average floor price for residential land transactions was 11,423 yuan per square meter, up 21.8% year-on-year [3][95] Top 50 Real Estate Companies' Land Acquisition - The top 50 real estate companies saw a 55% year-on-year increase in new land reserve value, totaling 908.4 billion yuan from January to October 2025 [78] - The top three companies by new land reserve area are China Overseas Land & Investment (4.15 million square meters), Poly Developments (3.51 million square meters), and China Merchants Shekou (3.07 million square meters) [2][87] Core 30 Cities Land Transaction Situation - In October 2025, the core 30 cities recorded 133 residential land transactions, with a total area of 855 million square meters, down 43% year-on-year [92] - The cumulative total land transaction price in the core 30 cities from January to October 2025 was 946.5 billion yuan, an increase of 17.8% year-on-year [95][102] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with strong brand reputation and sales performance in core cities, such as Poly Developments and China Merchants Shekou [4][118] - Consider companies with rich existing resources and operational brand competitiveness, like China Resources Land and Shanghai Lingang [4][118] - Look for long-term growth potential in property services, recommending companies like China Merchants Jinling and Greentown Services [4][118]