Investment Rating - The mechanical industry is rated as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights a significant decline in exports to North America in May, while the engineering machinery category remains robust [1] - The negative impact of tariffs on the economy is evident, with a notable drop in U.S. retail sales and a decrease in durable goods consumption [3] - The report suggests a focus on emerging markets such as Africa and Latin America, which are showing strong growth in exports [7][8] Summary by Sections Consumer Goods - Electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers are primarily targeted at high-end consumers in Europe and the U.S. [3] - In the first five months of 2025, the cumulative export growth rates for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers were 7%, -7%, and 49% respectively [4] - Exports to North America for electric tools and lawn mowers showed a year-on-year decline of 3% and 1% respectively, indicating a cooling in exports due to tariffs [4][11] Capital Goods - Industrial sewing machines are mainly exported to Asia, with Turkey, Vietnam, and Singapore as key markets [5] - Forklifts and machine tools also have significant markets in Asia and Europe, with export growth rates of 41% and 23% to Africa and Latin America respectively in the first five months of 2025 [6][7] - The cumulative export growth rate for engineering machinery reached 10% in the first five months of 2025, with Africa showing the fastest growth at 64% [6] Engineering Machinery - The export growth rates for major categories of engineering machinery, including excavators and tractors, were 22% and 30% respectively in the first five months of 2025 [10] - The report emphasizes the potential for a new round of capital expenditure in the mining sector, suggesting investment opportunities in related companies [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Glass prices have been on a downward trend, and the supply - side daily melting volume may accelerate contraction due to corporate losses. The demand is expected to be weak from July to August but may improve from September to December, with potential price increases and stock price rebounds similar to Q4 2024. However, glass prices may hit new lows due to the continuous decline in soda ash prices [3][27]. - There is high investor attention on special electronic cloth. Domestic leading enterprises are actively increasing supply capacity in response to the opportunity of domestic substitution. It is recommended to pay attention to companies such as Sinoma Science & Technology and Honghe Technology [3]. - It is recommended to pay attention to companies like Honglu Steel Structure, Qibin Group, Punan Co., Ltd., Hainan Huatie, Beixin Building Materials, China National Chemical Engineering, China State Construction, Shanghai Harbor, Sinoma Science & Technology, and Keda Manufacturing [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - long Special Topic: How Much Room Is There for the Decline of Float Glass Prices? - **Current Glass Price Position**: As of June 20, 2025, the glass price has dropped to 1,190 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decline of about 470 yuan, approaching the lowest point of this cycle (1,160 yuan/ton in late September 2024). The current price is at the lowest 2% of the price range from 2017 to now [10]. - **Reasons for Price Decline**: The continuous decline in glass prices is mainly due to the continuous negative year - on - year growth rate of housing completion area since 2024, which reduces the consumption of architectural glass, and the continuous decline in soda ash prices, which lowers the production cost of glass [12]. - **Stock Price Rebound in the Downturn**: During the four - year downward cycle of glass stock prices, there are still rebound opportunities. From September to October 2024, the stock price of Qibin Group rebounded by 40% - 50%, partly due to the market's rise and partly due to the rebound of glass prices [17]. - **Supply - Side Contraction and Price Rebound Potential**: If glass prices continue to be sluggish or decline, corporate losses may accelerate the contraction of the supply - side daily melting volume. The demand is expected to be weak from July to August, but the supply - demand pattern may improve from September to December, with potential price increases and stock price rebounds [27]. - **Risk of New Price Lows**: Considering the decline in soda ash prices, the current glass price may be about 108 yuan lower than the low point, and glass prices may hit new lows in this downward cycle [27]. 2. Profit Forecast and Valuation of Main Covered Companies No specific content about profit forecast and valuation is provided other than the table title. 3. Weekly Market Review - **Building and Building Materials Sub - sectors**: The report shows the weekly price changes of various sub - sectors in the building and building materials industries, but specific analysis is not provided [33]. - **Infrastructure Public REITs**: The report lists the weekly market conditions of multiple infrastructure public REITs, including closing prices, 52 - week highs and lows, weekly, monthly, year - to - date, 250 - day, and IPO - to - date price changes [38][39]. 4. Aggregate Data Tracking - **Real Estate Data**: It includes data on real estate new construction, construction, completion, sales area cumulative year - on - year, land transaction data, real estate transaction data, social financing data, infrastructure investment growth rate, and the quarterly new contract signing situation of eight major construction central enterprises [41][85]. - **Special Bond Issuance**: It shows data on the monthly and cumulative issuance amounts of new and replacement special bonds [87][91]. 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Cement Data**: It includes national PO42.5 cement average price, East China regional cement price trend, cement - coal price difference index, cement inventory ratio, and cement production monthly year - on - year growth rate [98][104]. - **Float Glass Data**: It includes glass spot and futures prices, glass inventory, and glass daily melting volume [104][113]. - **Photovoltaic Glass Data**: It includes photovoltaic glass inventory, soda ash price, 2mm photovoltaic glass price, and photovoltaic glass daily melting volume [112][113]. - **Glass Fiber Data**: It includes prices of various types of glass fiber yarns and glass fiber inventory [116][128]. - **Carbon Fiber Data**: It includes carbon fiber average price, raw silk price, production, inventory, start - up rate, cost, gross profit, and gross profit margin [125][134]. - **Magnesia and Alumina Prices**: It includes the ex - factory tax - included price of large - crystal electro - fused magnesia and alumina price [137][139]. - **Upstream Raw Material Prices**: It includes prices of asphalt, waste paper, PVC, HDPE, acrylic acid, and titanium dioxide [142][155]. - **Physical Workload Data**: It includes high - machine rental rate, excavator monthly working hours, and asphalt average start - up rate [150][156].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the machinery industry [1] Core Viewpoints - Domestic excavator sales in May 2025 are under short-term pressure due to low downstream operating conditions and earlier high sales in the year, which have somewhat exhausted future purchasing demand [2][3] - The report remains optimistic about the continuous growth in the replacement demand for construction machinery, projecting a compound growth rate of around 30% for replacement volume in the coming years, which is expected to support future excavator sales [3] - The government is expected to increase infrastructure investment, with a proposed issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in special bonds and 4.4 trillion yuan in local government bonds, which will likely boost downstream equipment demand [4] Summary by Sections Excavator Sales - In the first five months of 2025, excavator sales (including exports) reached 101,716 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.4%, with domestic sales at 57,501 units, up 25.7%. However, May 2025 saw a total of 18,202 units sold, a 2.1% increase year-on-year, but domestic sales fell by 1.5% to 8,392 units [2][11] - The average working hours for major construction machinery products in May 2025 were 84.5 hours, down 3.9% year-on-year and 6.3% month-on-month, indicating a decline in operational activity [2] Export Trends - Excavator exports in the first five months of 2025 totaled 44,215 units, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, with May exports at 9,810 units, up 5.4% [5][11] - The report highlights opportunities and challenges for machinery exports due to geopolitical factors and increasing demand in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East [5] Electrification and Green Transition - Sales of electric loaders surged by 207.7% in the first five months of 2025, with an electrification rate of 20.7%, up 14.5 percentage points year-on-year. In May alone, sales increased by 121.2% [6][11] - The government’s push for green transformation and energy-saving initiatives is expected to accelerate the electrification of construction machinery [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several leading companies in the machinery sector, including SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, XCMG, LiuGong, Shantui, and China Longgong, as well as component manufacturers like Hengli Hydraulic, indicating a positive long-term outlook for these firms [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's employee stock ownership plan has been successfully completed, indicating a growing long-term investment value [1] - The management and key employees' confidence in the company's future is reflected in the stock repurchase plan, which accounts for 0.72% of the total share capital [2] - The company continues to lead the industry in activated carbon production, with a production capacity of 149,900 tons and a utilization rate of 98.68% in 2024, while sales increased by 17.86% year-on-year [2] - The development of new energy carbon materials is progressing well, with mass production of hard carbon and porous carbon achieved, which is expected to create new growth drivers for the company [3] - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been adjusted down by 25% to CNY 290 million due to slowing terminal demand, but future profit projections for 2026 and 2027 have been introduced at CNY 336 million and CNY 407 million, respectively [3] Summary by Sections Employee Stock Ownership Plan - The company completed its employee stock ownership plan by acquiring 2.6217 million shares at CNY 14.83 per share, with senior management and supervisors participating at a rate of 9.23% [1] Production and Sales Performance - The company has maintained its position as the leading producer of activated carbon in China, with a production capacity of 149,900 tons and sales of 150,200 tons in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 17.86% [2] - The sodium silicate production capacity reached 207,200 tons, with a utilization rate of 96.13%, but sales decreased by 42.47% year-on-year [2] - The silica gel production capacity was 26,000 tons, with a utilization rate of 106.90% and sales increasing by 10.62% year-on-year [2] New Energy Carbon Materials - The company has successfully launched its first porous carbon production line, with hard carbon and porous carbon achieving mass production, enhancing product competitiveness [3] - A change in fundraising allocation was announced to support the construction of a new porous carbon project, further solidifying the company's position in the new energy carbon materials sector [3] Financial Forecasts - The report provides a financial forecast with expected revenues of CNY 2,067 million for 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 9.78% [4] - The net profit for 2025 is projected at CNY 290 million, with a slight increase in subsequent years [4] - Key financial metrics such as EPS and ROE are also projected to improve over the next few years, indicating a positive outlook for the company's financial health [4][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6]. Core Viewpoints - The company has announced a restricted stock incentive plan aimed at enhancing the motivation of core members, with a focus on the progress of its COC/COP products, which are expected to achieve mass sales by 2025 [2][4]. - The incentive plan's assessment period is set from 2025 to 2027, with specific sales and profit targets outlined for each year, indicating a strong confidence in the company's product development [2][4]. - The company has successfully initiated trial production of its thousand-ton COC production line, which is currently undergoing stability testing, and plans to expand its optical materials project in Hubei [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Incentive Plan - The company plans to grant 2.03 million restricted stocks to 22 key personnel at a price of 22.17 yuan per share, with performance targets linked to the sales of core products and net profit [1][2]. Financial Forecasts - The company's projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.21 billion, 1.06 billion, and 2.24 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment for 2025 and 2026 due to weak profitability in its polyetheramine products [4][5]. - Revenue is expected to grow significantly from 0.522 billion yuan in 2025 to 1.108 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding profit margins improving over the forecast period [5][11]. Production and Sales Targets - By the end of 2025, the company aims to achieve mass sales of its COC products in at least two out of three targeted fields, with specific sales volume targets set for 2026 and 2027 [2][4]. - The company is also investing in a new project to produce 20,000 tons of polyether amine, with a total investment of 327 million yuan [3][4]. Market Position and Valuation - The current market capitalization of the company is approximately 4.257 billion yuan, with a share price of 44.48 yuan [6]. - The report indicates a significant increase in expected earnings per share (EPS) from 0.22 yuan in 2025 to 2.34 yuan in 2027, reflecting a positive outlook for the company's financial performance [5][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a projected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - The company, Chipsea Technology (688595.SH), is transitioning from traditional consumer electronics to high-end sectors such as automotive electronics, computing and communication, mobile phones, BMS, and industrial control since 2019. The core products are high-performance SOCs [2]. - The company has seen a recovery in downstream demand, with product shipments gradually increasing. Revenue for 2024 is projected at 702 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.22%, and Q1 2025 revenue is expected to be 158 million yuan, up 4.66% year-on-year [2]. - The company has launched multiple new products in the analog signal chain, with 2024 revenue from these products expected to reach 181 million yuan, a 137.11% increase year-on-year, driven by significant sales growth in BMS products [3]. - MCU chip revenue is projected to reach 326 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a 67.63% year-on-year growth, with notable increases in EC and HUB product shipments [4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Growth - The company anticipates a revenue of 951 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 35.36%, and 1.226 billion yuan in 2026, with a growth rate of 28.92% [5]. - The net profit forecast for 2025 is -13 million yuan, with a subsequent recovery to 23 million yuan in 2026 and 36 million yuan in 2027 [5]. Product Performance - The BMS series products have achieved cumulative shipments exceeding 100 million units, with the first automotive-grade BMS AFE chip set to be released soon [3]. - The company has established a broad product layout centered around EC, covering PD, HapticPad, USB 3.0 HUB, and BMS, with significant growth in shipments for these products [4]. Financial Metrics - The projected gross margin for 2024 is 34.2%, with an expected improvement to 39.3% by 2027 [12]. - The company’s total assets are projected to be 1.695 billion yuan in 2024, with total liabilities of 938 million yuan, resulting in a debt-to-asset ratio of 55% [11].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the short-term liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market may face tightening, influenced by geopolitical tensions and uncertainties in US-China relations, leading to a potential volatile market [2] - Long-term prospects for the Hong Kong stock market remain positive due to strong overall profitability and the scarcity of assets in sectors like internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, suggesting a favorable long-term investment value [2] Market Data Summary - The domestic new fund market is experiencing a surge with 50 new funds launched, primarily equity mixed funds, while the net value of equity funds has collectively declined [3] - Notably, the net inflow into stock ETFs reached 14.669 billion yuan, with a focus on small-cap and sci-tech boards, while large-cap ETFs saw net outflows [3] Industry Research Summary Automotive Industry - The commercialization of Robotaxi is accelerating, with a significant growth inflection point expected in 2025, driven by advancements in reinforcement learning and large models [4] - Recommended companies include Tesla for L4 pure vision Robotaxi and suppliers like Nidec for steer-by-wire systems, along with Xpeng Motors and a focus on Li Auto and NIO [4] High-end Manufacturing - Optimus robots are set for major improvements, with a positive outlook on humanoid robotics and specific attention to high-complexity dexterous hands and rolling screw technology [5] - The engineering machinery sector is facing short-term domestic pressure but maintains a growth trend in exports, with recommended companies including Zoomlion and SANY Heavy Industry [5] Non-ferrous Metals - Domestic air conditioning sales increased by 2.3% in May, while production fell by 1.8%, indicating potential demand weakness [6] - The report suggests that copper prices may stabilize in the short term but are expected to rise gradually with domestic stimulus policies and potential US interest rate cuts [6] Basic Chemicals - The report highlights the long-term value of leading companies in the chemical industry, with recommendations for major players in oil and gas, low-valuation chemical leaders, and new materials sectors [8] - Specific companies to watch include Wanhua Chemical and China Petroleum [8] Pharmaceutical Industry - The acceleration of innovative drug reviews is expected to enhance the value of quality pipelines and improve market sentiment towards the innovative drug sector [9] - Key companies to focus on include Hansoh Pharmaceutical and BeiGene, which are positioned for rapid development and internationalization [9] Steel Industry - The report notes a decline in the domestic alumina capacity utilization rate to a new low for 2023, with expectations for steel sector profitability to recover to historical averages [10] - The revised steel industry standards are anticipated to support this recovery [10]

2025 年 6 月 23 日 行业研究 Optimus 机器人将迎重大改进，叉车 5 月内外销增速表现亮眼 ——机械行业周报 2025 年第 25 周（2025.6.16-2025.6.22） 作者 分析师：黄帅斌 执业证书编号：S0930520080005 0755-23915357 huangshuaibin@ebscn.com 分析师：陈佳宁 执业证书编号：S0930512120001 021-52523851 chenjianing@ebscn.com 分析师：汲萌 执业证书编号：S0930524010002 021-52523859 jimeng@ebscn.com 分析师：李佳琦 执业证书编号：S0930524070006 021-52523836 lijiaqi@ebscn.com 分析师：庄晓波 机械行业 买入（维持） 执业证书编号：S0930524070018 0755-25310400 zhuangxiaobo@ebscn.com 联系人：夏天宇 xiatianyu@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 24/06 24/09 2 ...

2025 年 6 月 23 日 行业研究 5 月国内氧化铝产能利用率降至 2023 年以来新低 ——金属周期品高频数据周报（2025.6.16-6.22） 要点 流动性：M1 和 M2 增速差在 2025 年 5 月为-5.6 个百分点。（1）BCI 中小 企业融资环境指数 2025 年 5 月值为 49.09，环比上月+2.20%；（2）M1 和 M2 增速差与上证指数存在较强的正向相关性：M1 和 M2 增速差在 2025 年 5 月为-5.6 个百分点，环比+0.9 个百分点；（3）本周伦敦金现价格环比上 周-1.91%。 基建和地产链条：6 月上旬重点企业粗钢旬度日均产量环比+3.25%。（1） 本周价格变动：螺纹+0.00%、水泥价格指数-1.21%、橡胶+0.72%、焦炭 +0.00%、焦煤-3.11%、铁矿-2.07%；（2）本周全国高炉产能利用率、水 泥、沥青、全钢胎开工率环比分别+0.21pct、-5.90pct、-1.8pct、 +4.24pct；（3）2025 年 6 月上旬，重点企业粗钢旬度日均产量为 215.90 万吨。 地产竣工链条：钛白粉、平板玻璃毛利润处于低位水平。本周钛白粉、 ...

2025 年 6 月 23 日 总量研究 国内新基市场发行火热，被动资金流入中小盘、科创板 ESG 金融产品跟踪：本周绿色债券发行市场热度持续上升，新发行绿色债券 27 只，已发行规模合计 453.12 亿元。国内绿色债券市场稳步发展，截至 2025 年 6 月 20 日，绿色债券市场累计发行规模合计 4.56 万亿元，发行数 量合计 3922 只。 基金表现方面，主动权益型、股票被动指数型、债券型 ESG 基金本周净值涨 跌幅中位数分别为-1.24%、-0.91%、0.10%。低碳经济、绿色、碳中和主题 基金表现明显占优。截至 2025 年 6 月 20 日，国内基金市场存量 ESG 基金 共 213 只，规模合计 1307.73 亿元。 风险提示：报告数据均来自于历史公开数据整理分析，存在失效的风险；历 史业绩不代表未来；基于定量模型测算基金仓位结果，和实际仓位存在差 异。 ——基金市场与 ESG 产品周报 20250623 要点 市场表现综述：大类资产方面，本周（下文如无特殊说明，本周均指代 2025.6.16-2025.6.20）原油价格延续上涨，权益市场指数全面回调。行业方 面，本周银行、通信、电子 ...