Group 1 - The supply-demand pattern in the light curing agent industry is improving, leading to potential profitability recovery [3][4][8] - The demand side shows a rebound in traditional sectors and new opportunities in emerging applications such as UV coatings, inks, and adhesives [4][5] - The light curing agent market in China is projected to grow, with a demand increase of 9% in 2023, reaching 35,000 tons [5][6] Group 2 - The production capacity of leading light curing agent companies in China is concentrated, with major players like Jiu Ri New Materials and Qiangli New Materials holding significant market shares [7][8] - The industry is expected to see a further increase in concentration as weaker players exit the market, enhancing competitive dynamics [6][8] - The light curing agent industry is rated as "recommended" due to the anticipated recovery in profitability and demand [8] Group 3 - The refrigerant market is experiencing a price increase due to quota restrictions, with R32 and R134a showing significant price rises [11][12] - The demand for refrigerants is driven by the growth in household and automotive air conditioning markets, with production expected to rise [15][16] - The refrigerant industry is rated as "recommended" based on tightening supply-demand relationships and continuous demand growth [16][17] Group 4 - The macroeconomic environment in China is showing resilience, with a stable growth outlook supported by strong consumer demand and manufacturing investment [19][20] - The government is implementing proactive fiscal policies, including increased budget deficits and special bond issuances to stimulate economic growth [27][28] - The export sector is expected to maintain resilience, supported by diversified trade partners and optimized product structures [45][46]

Economic Overview - China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2%[5] - Industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 6.3% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025[5] - The service production index rose by 5.9% year-on-year during the same period[5] Consumption Trends - Social retail sales increased by 5.0% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, with goods retail sales up by 5.1% and service retail sales up by 5.2%[6] - The "old-for-new" policy drove sales of five major categories to 1.1 trillion yuan, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued to consumers[6] - Retail sales of sports and entertainment products surged by 28.3% year-on-year in May 2025[6] Investment Dynamics - Fixed asset investment grew by 3.7% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, with manufacturing investment increasing by 8.5%[9] - Investment in consumer goods manufacturing rose by 13.2%, while infrastructure investment saw a decline, with a year-on-year drop of 10.4% in real estate development investment[9][27] Export Performance - Total goods imports and exports increased by 2.5% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, with exports rising by 7.2%[10] - The share of exports to the U.S. decreased from 19.2% in 2018 to 11.9% in May 2025, while exports to ASEAN increased from 12.8% to 17.8%[10] Policy Environment - The fiscal deficit for 2025 is set at 5.66 trillion yuan, with a deficit rate of 4%, marking the highest level in recent years[14] - The central government’s deficit is projected at 4.86 trillion yuan, accounting for 85.9% of the total deficit, also a record high[15] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy has shifted to "moderately loose," with measures including a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate reductions[19] - Social financing increased by 8.7% year-on-year as of May 2025, with M2 growth at 7.9%[19] Future Economic Trends - GDP growth is expected to reach 5.0% for the full year 2025, with Q2 growth projected at 5.3% and subsequent quarters at 4.8% and 4.6% respectively[21] - Consumer spending is anticipated to maintain a growth rate of 5.1% for the year, driven by structural changes in consumption patterns[22] Investment Outlook - Manufacturing investment is projected to grow by 7.9% for the year, supported by government policies and technological advancements[23] - Infrastructure investment is expected to grow by 6.7% for the year, bolstered by active fiscal policies and project approvals[28] Export Resilience - Exports are forecasted to grow by 1.2% for the year, supported by diversification in trade partners and product structures[30]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing strong growth in AI server revenue, with a year-on-year increase of over 60%, and is continuously improving its market share [2][6]. - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.96-12.16 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.84%-39.12% [5][10]. - The cloud computing business is seeing rapid growth, with overall segment revenue increasing by over 50% year-on-year in Q2 2025, driven by strong demand for AI data center products [6][10]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - As of July 7, 2025, the company's stock price is 23.98 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 476.23 billion yuan [4]. - The company's performance over the past year shows an 18.1% increase over the last month and a 39.8% increase over the last three months [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 888.83 billion yuan in 2025, 1,203.52 billion yuan in 2026, and 1,582.51 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 30.24 billion yuan, 39.48 billion yuan, and 49.40 billion yuan respectively [9][10]. - The expected growth rates for revenue are 46% in 2025, 35% in 2026, and 31% in 2027 [9]. Business Segments Cloud Computing - The AI server segment is expected to account for over 50% of total server revenue, with significant growth in GPU module shipments [6][10]. - The company has seen a 1.5 times increase in revenue from cloud service provider servers compared to the same period last year [6]. Network Communications - The company’s 800G switch revenue in Q2 2025 reached three times that of the entire year of 2024, driven by increasing AI demand [7]. - The precision component business is also experiencing steady growth, supported by strong sales of high-end AI products [7].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for technology stocks, particularly those benefiting from capital expenditure expansion in the AI sector [7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significant capital expenditure growth among major internet companies such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, driven by their AI-enabled business trends [7][10]. - It highlights the expected revenue growth in related supply chains, particularly in AI server components, with notable increases in demand for GPUs, HBM/SSD, cooling systems, and PCBs [7][25]. - The report also points out that Chinese internet giants are expanding their capital expenditures, with potential for further increases if AI-related businesses continue to grow [7][36]. Summary by Sections Domestic Technology Giants' Capital Expenditure Expansion - Major Chinese internet companies like Alibaba and Tencent are experiencing high capital expenditure growth, with plans for significant investments in AI and cloud infrastructure [36][43]. - The report notes that Alibaba's cloud business has shown a revenue growth rate close to 18%, while Tencent's advertising services have also benefited from AI enhancements [40][43]. Other Industries Expanding Capital Expenditure - The report identifies three key sectors in A-shares expanding capital expenditure: IT services, consumer electronics, and public utilities, particularly in coal mining and steel [7]. - It suggests that investment opportunities exist in areas such as cooling systems, switches, GPUs, and PCBs, as well as new technology trends like ASIC and CPO [7][25]. Performance of U.S. Technology Stocks - The report indicates that the top U.S. tech companies have significantly increased their capital expenditures, with a combined total exceeding $250 billion, primarily in the internet sector [10][12]. - It highlights that the capital expenditure growth is closely linked to the performance of AI-related businesses, with expectations for continued upward trends in 2024 [19][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the refrigerant industry, indicating a positive outlook on the industry's fundamentals and performance relative to the market index [1]. Core Insights - The refrigerant industry is expected to experience a price uptrend due to supply constraints from production quotas and increasing demand driven by the growth in household air conditioning and automotive sectors [5][9]. - Recent adjustments in production quotas for HFC-32 and HFC-134a show slight increases, while HFC-125's quota has decreased, reflecting a stable yet limited supply environment [6][7][8]. - The demand for refrigerants is projected to rise as the production of household air conditioners and automobiles continues to grow, with significant increases in production volumes noted in recent years [9]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The refrigerant prices have shown significant increases, with R32 priced at 53,000 RMB/ton (+3.92% month-on-month), R134a at 49,500 RMB/ton (+2.06%), while R22 and R125 have seen slight declines or stability [5]. - The production quotas for HFC-32 and HFC-134a are being utilized at high levels, with HFC-32's production accounting for 54.38% of its adjusted quota and HFC-134a at 50.28% [5]. Market Demand - The domestic air conditioning market has seen a compound annual growth rate of 5.40% from 2014 to 2024, with production expected to reach 266 million units by 2024 [9]. - The automotive sector is also rebounding, with a projected production of 31.56 million vehicles in 2024, contributing to increased demand for refrigerants in automotive air conditioning systems [9]. Investment Focus - Key companies to watch in the refrigerant sector include Juhua Co., Ltd., Sanmei Chemical, Haohua Technology, Dongyue Group, Yonghe Co., Ltd., and Jinshi Resources, which are highlighted for their potential growth and investment opportunities [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Recommended" rating to the photoinitiator industry, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand dynamics in the photoinitiator industry are improving, leading to a potential recovery in industry profitability [3][10]. - The demand side is witnessing a revival in traditional sectors, while emerging applications are opening new opportunities [6][10]. - The industry is expected to see a concentration of production capacity among companies with scale, cost, and technological advantages [9][10]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The prices of various photoinitiator products have increased significantly in 2025, with notable price changes: - Photoinitiator 907: 88 CNY/kg (+27.54% since the beginning of the year) - Photoinitiator 184: 45 CNY/kg (+32.35%) - Photoinitiator TPO: 83 CNY/kg (+10.67%) - Photoinitiator ITX: 155 CNY/kg (+16.54%) [5]. - The photoinitiator market in China is projected to grow, with the UV coating market reaching 6.2 billion CNY in 2023 (+8% YoY), UV ink at 5.5 billion CNY (+11% YoY), and UV adhesive at 2.6 billion CNY (+238% YoY) [6][7]. Demand Drivers - The demand for photoinitiators is expected to rise due to recovery in the real estate sector and growth in downstream applications such as UV inks and adhesives used in electronics and packaging [7][10]. - The global 3D printing industry is projected to grow from 20 billion USD in 2023 to 21.9 billion USD in 2024 (+9.1%), with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18% expected from 2024 to 2034 [7]. - The PCB market is also on an upward trend, with a projected value of 73.6 billion USD in 2024 (+5.8% YoY) and an expected market size of 94.7 billion USD by 2029 [8]. Supply Side and Industry Structure - The production capacity of leading photoinitiator companies in China for 2024 is as follows: - Jiu Ri New Materials: 23,000 tons - Qiang Li New Materials: 17,000 tons - Wo Kai Long: 13,000 tons [9]. - The industry is experiencing a consolidation trend, with production capacity increasingly concentrated among companies with competitive advantages [9][10]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the photoinitiator industry is poised for a rebound in profitability as supply-demand conditions improve, and it highlights the potential for price recovery [10]. - Key companies to watch include Jiu Ri New Materials, Qiang Li New Materials, Yang Fan New Materials, and Xin Han New Materials [11].

Group 1: Key Insights from Reports - The report highlights a significant easing of supply chain risks for the company following the U.S. Department of Commerce's removal of restrictions on ethane exports to China, allowing for a return to normal trade conditions [12][13]. - The company's α-olefin comprehensive utilization project is progressing well, with an expected total investment of approximately 26.6 billion yuan, aimed at expanding upstream ethylene production capacity and supporting long-term growth [15]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 55.34 billion, 71.35 billion, and 84.83 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 6.82 billion, 9.07 billion, and 10.34 billion yuan, indicating a strong growth trajectory [16]. Group 2: Market Trends and Performance - The REITs market has shown increased activity, with the total market capitalization rising to 207.87 billion yuan, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.8 billion yuan, and a daily turnover rate of 0.74% [6][8]. - The North Exchange 50 index experienced a slight decline of 1.71%, closing at 1415.04 points, while the average market capitalization of constituent stocks was 3.08 billion yuan [10]. - The report notes that the average cash distribution rate for property-type REITs is 3.73%, while the rate for concession-type REITs is significantly higher at 8.12%, indicating a valuation disparity between the two categories [8].

Report Overview - Report Date: July 7, 2025 - Report Type: Bond Research Weekly Report - Analysts: Jin Yi, Liu Chang 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report focuses on the weekly tracking of institutional behavior in the bond market. After the cross - quarter period from June 30 to July 4, 2025, liquidity loosened. It analyzes various aspects such as institutional bond custody, capital tracking, quantitative behavior tracking, and asset management product data [2][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Institutional Bond Custody - The report presents figures on the bond custody of generalized funds, insurance institutions, securities companies, and commercial banks, but no specific analysis of the data is provided [12][14]. 3.2 Institutional Capital Tracking 3.2.1 Capital Price - After the cross - quarter period, liquidity loosened. R007 closed at 1.49%, a decrease of 43BP from last week; DR007 closed at 1.42%, a decrease of 27BP from last week; the 6 - month national and stock transfer discount rate closed at 0.99%, a decrease of 21BP from last week [2][16]. 3.2.2 Financing Situation - The balance of inter - bank pledged repurchase this week was 128,403.2 billion yuan, a 1.2% increase from last week. From the perspective of generalized asset management, fund companies and bank wealth management had net financing of 22.28 billion yuan and - 57.26 billion yuan respectively this week [20]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior Quantitative Tracking 3.3.1 Measuring Fund Duration - The measured durations of high - performing interest - rate bond funds and general interest - rate bond funds in the market this week were 6.92 and 5.41 respectively, an increase of 0.02 and 0.18 from last week [29]. 3.3.2 "Asset Scarcity" Index - The "asset scarcity" index decreased slightly this week, but no specific data is provided in the text [3]. 3.3.3 Institutional Behavior Trading Signals - **Secondary Capital Bonds**: Multiple signals such as turnover rate, long - short difference, and momentum are provided, with gray areas indicating bullish signals [38][40]. - **Ultra - long Treasury Bonds**: Similar trading signals are provided, including turnover rate, long - short difference, and momentum [41][42]. - **10 - year Local Bonds**: Long - short difference and momentum signals are provided [45][46]. 3.3.4 All about Institutional Leverage - The overall market leverage ratio this week was 108.0%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from last week. Among generalized asset management, the leverage ratios of insurance institutions, funds, and securities firms were 114.9% (a decrease of 3.8 percentage points from last week), 105.5% (a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from last week), and 213.8% (an increase of 1.1 percentage points from last week) respectively [47]. 3.3.5 Bank Self - operation Comparison Table - The table shows the nominal yield, tax cost, value - added tax, income tax, after - tax income, capital occupation cost, risk weight, capital adequacy ratio, capital profit margin, and the final income considering tax and risk capital of various investment products such as general loans, 10 - year treasury bonds, and 10 - year national development bonds [51]. 3.4 Asset Management Product Data Tracking 3.4.1 Funds - Figures on the weekly establishment scale of various types of funds and the 2025 fund yield distribution (annualized) are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [53]. 3.4.2 Bank Wealth Management - The proportion of non - performing wealth management products in the entire market decreased this week, with the overall non - performing rate at 1.5% [54]. 3.5 Treasury Bond Futures Trend Tracking - Figures on the inter - period spread trend and the basis level of the next - quarter T contract are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [61]. 3.6 Generalized Asset Management Pattern - Figures on the scale change of generalized asset management, the scale of public funds, and the change in the remaining scale of bank wealth management are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [65][68].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The removal of ethane supply risks and the growth potential of high-end polyolefin projects are highlighted as key factors for the company's future performance [3][7] - The company is expected to benefit from the normalization of ethane trade between the US and China, which will enhance its supply chain stability [7] - The company's α-olefin comprehensive utilization project is progressing well, supporting long-term growth [9] Financial Performance - The company’s projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 553.35 billion, 713.54 billion, and 848.29 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 68.24 billion, 90.71 billion, and 103.38 billion [11][12] - The expected PE ratios for the same period are 9, 7, and 6 times, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [11] Market Data - As of July 4, 2025, the company's stock price is 17.82 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 60,029.27 million [5][23] - The stock has shown a performance of 7.4% over the last month, contrasting with a decline of 15.7% over the past three months [5] Product Pricing and Margins - The report notes an expansion in the acrylic acid price spread, which is expected to gradually improve the company's C3 segment performance [8] - The average price of ethane in Q2 2025 was 177 USD/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.01% [8][14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is positive, indicating a favorable outlook for the sector, with a focus on companies with stable performance and reasonable valuations [35]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the North Exchange 50 Index experienced a slight decline of 1.71% this week, closing at 1415.04 points, while the average market capitalization of A-share constituent stocks is 3.083 billion [5][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on quality stocks with stable growth and reasonable valuations in the North Exchange, particularly in the context of the 2025 investment landscape [5]. Summary by Sections Overall Market Overview - As of July 4, 2025, the North Exchange A-share market consists of 268 stocks, with an average market capitalization of 3.083 billion. The North Exchange 50 Index saw a decline of 1.71% this week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index increased by 1.54% [5][11]. - The average daily trading volume for the North Exchange 50 was 27.983 billion, down 17.81% from the previous week, with a turnover rate of 3.18% [5][24]. Stock and Industry Performance - In the past week, 50 stocks increased in value, while 217 stocks decreased, resulting in an increase ratio of 18.66%, which is a decrease of 74.63 percentage points week-on-week [17]. - The top five performing industries were Beauty Care (8.60%), Light Industry Manufacturing (1.9%), Pharmaceutical Biology (1.57%), Transportation (0.60%), and Environmental Protection (0.47%). Conversely, the bottom five industries included Electronics (-4.86%), Automotive (-4.58%), Communications (-3.92%), Media (-3.88%), and Public Utilities (-3.22%) [19][22]. New Stock Updates - No new stocks were listed on the North Exchange this week, but one company, Jinhua New Materials, passed the review for listing, while another, Beikang Testing, is scheduled for review next week [28][29]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report identifies key companies to watch, including: - Tongli Co., Ltd. (stock code: 834599.BJ) with a buy rating and an expected EPS of 1.99 for 2025 [6]. - Wuxin Tunnel Equipment (stock code: 835174.BJ) also rated as buy with an expected EPS of 1.64 for 2025 [6]. - Kaide Quartz (stock code: 835179.BJ) rated as hold with an expected EPS of 1.03 for 2025 [6]. - Hualing Co., Ltd. (stock code: 430139.BJ) rated as hold with an expected EPS of 0.34 for 2025 [6]. - Hengtou Open Source (stock code: 834415.BJ) rated as hold with an expected EPS of 0.22 for 2025 [6]. - Tianli Composite (stock code: 873576.BJ) rated as buy with an expected EPS of 1.03 for 2025 [6].