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英伟达(NVDA):Blackwell进展顺利,指引符合预期
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-05-29 05:47
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, anticipating significant profit growth in the upcoming years [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $44.062 billion for FY26Q1, representing a year-over-year increase of 69% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 12%. The GAAP gross margin was 60.5%, impacted by a $4.5 billion inventory impairment loss related to H20. Excluding this loss, the Non-GAAP gross margin was 71.3% [2]. - The company expects FY26Q2 revenue to be around $45 billion, accounting for an $8 billion revenue loss due to H20's ban on sales. The projected GAAP and Non-GAAP gross margins for FY26Q2 are 71.8% and 72.0%, respectively [2]. - The data center business continues to grow rapidly, driven by increased demand for inference computing power and the rollout of Blackwell GPUs. In FY26Q1, the data center segment generated $39.112 billion in revenue, a 73% increase year-over-year [2][3]. - The gaming segment achieved $3.763 billion in revenue for FY26Q1, up 42% year-over-year, primarily due to customers shifting to purchase RTX5090 and RTX6000 series graphics cards amid limited supply of data center GPUs [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - FY26Q1 revenue: $44.062 billion, YoY +69%, QoQ +12% - GAAP net profit: $18.775 billion, YoY +26%, QoQ -15% - Non-GAAP net profit: $19.894 billion, YoY +31%, QoQ -10% [2]. Business Segments - Data Center Revenue: $39.112 billion, YoY +73% - Gaming Revenue: $3.763 billion, YoY +42% - Professional Imaging Revenue: $0.509 billion, YoY +19% - Automotive Revenue: $0.567 billion, YoY +72% - OEM Revenue: $0.111 billion, YoY +42% [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Projected GAAP net profits for FY26, FY27, and FY28 are $108.208 billion, $135.340 billion, and $152.762 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 48.5%, 25.1%, and 12.9% [4].
美团-W:逆战外卖红海,守份额谋未来-20250528
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-05-28 10:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) [10] Core Views - In Q1 2025, Meituan achieved revenue of 865 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, and a Non-IFRS net profit of 10.9 billion CNY, up 46.2% year-on-year [2] - The core local business revenue reached 643 billion CNY, growing 17.8% year-on-year, with an operating profit of 135 billion CNY, reflecting a 39.1% increase and an operating profit margin of 21%, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The report highlights the healthy growth in food delivery and strong momentum in instant retail, although increased competition in Q2 may impact profits [3] - New business revenue grew by 19.2% year-on-year to 222 billion CNY, with operating losses narrowing by 17.5% to 2.3 billion CNY [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3862 billion CNY, 4461 billion CNY, and 4979 billion CNY respectively, with Non-IFRS net profits of 405 billion CNY, 530 billion CNY, and 706 billion CNY [5] - Corresponding P/E ratios are expected to be 17.93, 13.69, and 10.28 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [5]
6.18 前置带动家电销售
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-05-27 11:27
Group 1: US Treasury Yield Trends - US Treasury yields have significantly increased since May, with the 1-year yield rising by 30 basis points to 4.15%[5] - The 5-year yield increased by 36 basis points to 4.08%, while the 10-year yield rose by 34 basis points to 4.51%[5] - The 30-year yield surged by 38 basis points to 5.04%, reaching a year-to-date high of 5.08% on May 21[5] Group 2: South Korea's Export Performance - South Korea's exports showed a notable divergence in the first 20 days of May, with a year-on-year decline improving from -5.3% in April to -2.4%[8] - Exports to China, the US, and the EU saw declines, with rates of -7.2%, -14.6%, and -2.7% respectively[8] - Semiconductor exports increased from 10.7% to 17.3%, while other sectors like steel and home appliances faced declines[8] Group 3: Shipping Volume Trends - The import container throughput at the Port of Los Angeles increased by 55.9% year-on-year in the third week of May, with a 21.6% week-on-week rise[10] - The number of vessel calls at the port rose to 21, maintaining an upward trend[10] - Shipping rates from Shanghai to US West and East Coast ports increased by 6.0% and 5.3% respectively[10] Group 4: Online Appliance Sales Growth - Online sales of eight categories of furniture reached 7.16 billion yuan, up from 3.73 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of over 200%[13] - Offline sales decreased by 34%, indicating a shift towards online purchasing[13] - The rapid growth in online sales is attributed to pre-sales for the 618 shopping festival, which began earlier than the previous year[14] Group 5: Economic Growth Indicators - High-frequency data suggests that May's GDP growth rate may stabilize around 5.4%[17] - Car sales and resident travel numbers remained high, supporting service sector production[17] - April's economic data laid a solid foundation for a resilient growth outlook in May[17]
2025 年深度行业分析研究报告
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-05-26 23:15
Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the exoskeleton robot industry, anticipating accelerated commercialization by 2025 [4]. Core Insights - The exoskeleton robot industry is expected to experience significant growth due to technological advancements, improved product performance, and cost reductions [4][6]. - The rise of rental models for climbing assistance in scenic areas is enhancing market accessibility and service offerings [4][7]. - Increased financing for startups in the exoskeleton sector is likely to boost product line expansion and core technology upgrades, enhancing competitiveness [4][7]. Summary by Sections 1. What are Exoskeleton Robots? - Exoskeleton robots are wearable intelligent devices designed to enhance or restore human movement capabilities, primarily used in military, industrial, medical, and civilian applications [9][11]. 2. Why is the Commercialization of Exoskeleton Robots Accelerating in 2025? - **Product Side**: Technological breakthroughs are leading to performance improvements and cost reductions, with AI advancements enhancing the robots' ability to interpret human movement intentions [42][44]. - **Scene Side**: The emergence of rental models for climbing assistance in scenic areas is gaining traction, with comprehensive support services being established [50][52]. - **Enterprise Side**: Startups in the exoskeleton sector are experiencing accelerated financing, which is expected to enhance product development and market competitiveness [55][56]. 3. How are Domestic and International Exoskeleton Companies Advancing Technologically? - The report highlights various companies, including Shenzhen Kenking Technology and Hangzhou Chengtian Technology, which are gaining attention for their innovative products and competitive pricing [36][38]. - Notable advancements include the development of lightweight materials like carbon fiber and aluminum alloys, which improve comfort and battery life [48][49]. 4. Application Scenarios for Exoskeleton Robots - Exoskeleton robots are being utilized in rehabilitation, industrial labor, outdoor sports, and military applications, with significant potential for growth in these areas [58][61][73].
亚朵(ATAT):三年回购计划提升股东回报,零售超预期
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-05-26 11:01
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [6][13]. Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 1.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.8%, while net profit decreased by 5.6% to 244 million yuan. Adjusted net profit rose by 32.3% to 345 million yuan, and adjusted EBITDA increased by 33.8% to 474 million yuan [2]. - The report highlights a widening decline in Q1 RevPAR, with expectations for improvement in Q2 and Q3 due to a favorable base effect. Q1 RevPAR was 304 yuan, down 7.2% year-on-year [3]. - The retail business continues to outperform expectations, with Q1 GMV reaching 850 million yuan, a 71% increase, and retail revenue of 690 million yuan, up 66.5%, accounting for 36.4% of total revenue [3]. - The company is focusing on asset-light hotel operations and improving retail gross margins, with Q1 hotel revenue up 23.5% year-on-year despite RevPAR decline, driven mainly by new openings [4]. - A new share repurchase plan of up to 400 million USD over three years has been announced, enhancing shareholder returns [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 1.91 billion yuan, up 29.8% year-on-year, while net profit was 244 million yuan, down 5.6%. Adjusted net profit was 345 million yuan, up 32.3%, and adjusted EBITDA was 474 million yuan, up 33.8% [2]. - The company expects adjusted net profit for 2025 to be 1.66 billion yuan, with projected growth rates of 20.9% and 26.4% for 2026 and 2027, respectively [6]. Operational Highlights - Q1 RevPAR was 304 yuan, down 7.2% year-on-year, with occupancy at 70.2% and ADR at 418 yuan, reflecting increased pressure on occupancy rates [3]. - The company opened 121 new hotels in Q1, bringing the total to 1,727, a 32.6% increase year-on-year, with a pipeline of 755 hotels [4]. Retail Business - Retail revenue in Q1 was 690 million yuan, a 66.5% increase, with the retail business contributing 36.4% to total revenue. The company launched new products that achieved strong sales [3][4]. Shareholder Returns - The company announced a share repurchase plan of up to 400 million USD over three years, alongside a dividend plan, indicating a commitment to enhancing shareholder returns [5].
有色金属行业研究:有色金属周报:欧美关税或再升级,金价再度上行-20250526
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-05-26 05:19
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The industrial metal sector is experiencing slight pressure on demand, particularly in copper and aluminum, while precious metals like gold are seeing upward trends due to geopolitical tensions and trade issues [13][15]. - The rare earth sector is expected to see a dual increase in prices domestically and internationally due to export controls and supply disruptions, particularly from Myanmar [30][33]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Bulk and Precious Metals Market - Copper prices on LME decreased by 1.18% to $9,487.00 per ton, while Shanghai copper increased by 0.06% to ¥77,900 per ton. Copper inventories rose to 139,900 tons, marking a slight increase [13]. - Aluminum prices on LME fell by 0.94% to $2,475.50 per ton, with domestic aluminum rod inventories at 130,800 tons, showing a decrease [14]. - Gold prices on COMEX increased by 2.24% to $3,316.60 per ounce, driven by international trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts [15]. 2. Updates on Bulk and Precious Metals Fundamentals 2.1 Copper - The processing fee index for imported copper concentrate dropped to -$43.05 per ton, indicating supply-side pressures. The weekly operating rate for copper wire companies was 82.34%, down 1.05 percentage points from the previous week [13][18]. 2.2 Aluminum - The operating rate for alumina plants increased by 0.99 percentage points to 78.01%, as some companies resumed production after maintenance [14]. 2.3 Precious Metals - The increase in gold prices is attributed to heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainties and trade negotiations between the US and EU [15]. 3. Overview of Minor Metals and Rare Earths Market - The rare earth sector is experiencing a robust upward trend, with prices for dysprosium and terbium increasing significantly due to export controls [30]. - Antimony prices are expected to rebound as supply from Myanmar is disrupted by natural events, while the overall demand remains stable [34]. - Tin prices have shown resilience despite some downward pressure, supported by low inventory levels and seasonal production cuts [36]. 4. Updates on Minor Metals and Rare Earths Fundamentals 4.1 Rare Earths - The prices for various rare earth oxides have shown fluctuations, with overseas prices for dysprosium and terbium rising significantly [31][33]. 4.2 Antimony - Antimony ingot prices have decreased slightly, but the overall market outlook remains positive due to supply constraints and increasing demand [34]. 4.3 Tin - Tin ingot prices have shown slight declines, but the market remains supported by low inventory levels and strong demand from sectors like semiconductors and photovoltaics [36].
固定收益策略报告:三大长债市场一级招标接连“发飞”:是偶发,还是共性?
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-05-26 02:55
Group 1: Market Trends - Recent bond auctions in Japan, the US, and China have shown significantly reduced demand, indicating a cooling in the primary market[2] - Japan's 20-year bond auction on May 20 had a bid-to-cover ratio of only 2.5, the lowest since 2012, with a tail of 1.14, the highest since 1987[7] - The US 20-year bond auction on May 21 saw a yield of 5.047%, exceeding expectations, with a bid-to-cover ratio dropping to 2.46, the lowest since February[7] Group 2: Interest Rate Movements - Following the weak bond auctions, long-term interest rates surged, with Japanese bond yields rising approximately 15 basis points, and 30-year US Treasury yields surpassing 5%[2] - The domestic 50-year bond auction on May 23 reported a yield of 2.10%, higher than the estimated yield of 2.025%, reflecting a decline in market enthusiasm[7] Group 3: Economic Factors - Uncertainty in policy expectations has increased, with the market pricing in potential rate hikes in Japan and a reduced urgency for rate cuts in the US due to strong employment data and rising inflation[3] - Concerns over fiscal sustainability are growing, particularly in the US, where high deficits and tax cuts have weakened demand for government bonds[4] Group 4: Domestic Market Resilience - Despite the volatility in US and Japanese markets, China's long-term bond market has shown resilience, supported by a relatively loose monetary policy and attractive yield levels around 1.70% for 10-year bonds and 1.90% for 30-year bonds[5] - The trading environment in China remains stable, with market heat indices falling below the 40th percentile, indicating low risk of forced adjustments[5]
商贸零售行业研究:永辉股东大会公布新进展,快手618开门红首日快速增长
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-05-26 02:45
Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" with an expectation of an increase exceeding 15% in the next 3-6 months [33] Core Insights - Offline retail: Yonghui Supermarket has made progress in team restructuring and store format adjustments, focusing on store sizes of 2500-3000 square meters and 1500-2000 square meters, with a target of developing 60 new private label products by 2025 [11][12] - Online retail: Kuaishou's 618 shopping festival saw significant growth, with GMV for the first day up 282% year-on-year, while Bilibili reported a 24% increase in revenue for Q1 2025, reaching 7 billion yuan [16][1] Industry Data Tracking - GMV performance: In the first week of May, the overall GMV for Tmall and JD.com increased by 9.49% year-on-year, with top-performing categories including consumer electronics and home appliances [17][2] Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and the retail sector saw declines of -0.57%, -0.46%, and -1.61% respectively during the week of May 19-23, 2025 [21][3] Investment Recommendations - Offline retail: Focus on domestic retail giants like Yonghui Supermarket, which are benefiting from domestic demand and supply chain adjustments due to external factors [29] - Online retail: Tencent and Meituan are highlighted for their potential growth driven by AI integration and macroeconomic recovery, respectively [30][31]
房地产行业研究:土地收储持续提速,地产数据底部震荡
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-05-26 00:23
Investment Rating - The report indicates a weak investment sentiment in the real estate sector, with a focus on stabilizing sales data and improving land acquisition strategies [7] Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of bottoming out, with new home sales increasing on a week-on-week basis and year-on-year comparisons turning positive [4][58] - The land market has seen a decline in activity, with a notable drop in transaction volumes compared to previous years [5][44] - Special bonds for land acquisition have accelerated, with over 350 billion yuan allocated for purchasing idle land, which may help stabilize housing prices in the future [5][14] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The A-share real estate sector experienced a decline of 1.5%, ranking 23rd among all sectors, while the Hong Kong real estate sector fell by 0.7%, ranking 11th [30] - The property service index in Hong Kong decreased by 1.8%, contrasting with a 1.4% increase in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index [38] Land Transactions - In the week of May 17-23, the total area of residential land sold across 300 cities was 493 million square meters, reflecting a 6% week-on-week increase but a 34% year-on-year decrease [44] - The average premium rate for land transactions was 13%, with a cumulative area of 13,198 million square meters sold since the beginning of the year, showing a 1.5% year-on-year decline [44][48] New Home Sales - New home sales across 47 cities totaled 404 million square meters, marking a 16% increase week-on-week and a 9% increase year-on-year [50] - Sales in first-tier cities showed a slight increase of 1% week-on-week but a 1% decrease year-on-year, while second-tier cities saw a 16% week-on-week increase and a 4% year-on-year decrease [50] Second-Hand Home Sales - Second-hand home transactions in 22 cities totaled 284 million square meters, with a 4% week-on-week increase and a 10% year-on-year increase [58] - First-tier cities experienced a 2% week-on-week decrease but a 25% year-on-year increase in second-hand home sales [58] Investment Recommendations - Developers are advised to focus on first-tier and core second-tier cities, emphasizing improved product offerings and maintaining land acquisition capabilities [7] - Real estate agencies with strong competitive advantages, such as Beike, are recommended due to the increasing activity in both new and second-hand housing markets [7]
电力设备与新能源行业研究周报:欧洲海风政策边际改善密集,关注宁德港股促锂电板块估值重塑
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-05-26 00:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook on the photovoltaic and energy storage sectors, recommending key areas such as battery cells, storage inverters, and new technology directions [2][10][24]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in domestic photovoltaic installations in April, with a year-on-year growth of 215% and a month-on-month growth of 123%, indicating strong demand driven by a rush to install before new regulations take effect [10][11]. - The Danish government has restarted a 3GW offshore wind project, which is expected to boost demand in the European offshore wind sector, suggesting a recovery in this market [2][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of overseas markets for electrical equipment, noting a 31% year-on-year increase in export value for major electrical equipment in April, with transformers and high-voltage switches seeing even higher growth rates [3][13][15]. Summary by Relevant Sections Photovoltaic & Energy Storage - April saw a total of 45.22GW of new photovoltaic installations, with cumulative installations reaching 104.93GW in the first four months of the year, reflecting robust demand [10][11]. - The report anticipates continued strong performance in May, supported by the backlog in component installation and upcoming industry events like SNEC [2][10]. - Export data shows a stable demand for battery components, with a total export of 27.6GW in April, indicating resilience in overseas markets [10][11]. Wind Power - The report notes that European offshore wind policies are improving, with several countries announcing new projects and subsidies, which will likely enhance demand certainty in the sector [2][14]. - Key companies in the offshore wind sector are recommended for investment, particularly those poised to benefit from increased orders in Europe [2][14]. Electrical Equipment - The report highlights a strong export performance in electrical equipment, with a total export value of $6.99 billion in April, marking a 31% increase year-on-year [3][13][15]. - The focus remains on companies with strong overseas market presence and product capabilities, such as Sanyuan Electric and Samsung Medical [3][15]. New Energy Vehicles & Lithium Batteries - The report indicates a surge in the new energy vehicle sector, with significant sales growth driven by companies like BYD and the positive performance of other manufacturers [19][21]. - The recent listing of CATL on the Hong Kong stock market has resulted in a notable price increase, reflecting strong investor interest and potential for valuation re-rating in the lithium battery sector [21][24]. Hydrogen Energy & Fuel Cells - The report discusses a policy shift in hydrogen vehicle promotion, with several provinces offering toll exemptions to stimulate demand [4][15]. - The growth in green hydrogen projects is highlighted, with a significant increase in bidding for electrolyzer projects, indicating a positive outlook for the hydrogen sector [4][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report provides a comprehensive list of recommended companies across various sectors, including photovoltaic, energy storage, wind power, electrical equipment, new energy vehicles, and lithium batteries, emphasizing those with strong growth potential and market positioning [24][25].