Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong confidence in the pharmaceutical sector, anticipating a reversal trend in 2025, with innovative drugs and left-side sector recovery being the primary investment opportunities [4][11]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector has shown strong performance, highlighted by the unexpected $1.25 billion upfront payment from Pfizer to 3SBio for the exclusive rights to develop and commercialize the PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody SSGJ-707 outside of mainland China [20][21]. - The ASCO conference showcased 74 clinical studies from Chinese companies, with 11 entries in the prestigious Late Breaking Abstracts (LBA) category, indicating the growing international recognition of Chinese innovative drug capabilities [22]. - The report emphasizes the potential for significant recovery in various segments, including chain pharmacies, generic drugs, traditional Chinese medicine, and in vitro diagnostics, with companies like YaoYao and Changchun High-tech gaining market recognition due to improved fundamentals [11]. Summary by Sections Pharmaceutical Sector - 3SBio's deal with Pfizer includes a $1.25 billion upfront payment and potential milestone payments up to $4.8 billion, reflecting the market's confidence in the value of Chinese innovative drugs [20][21]. - The ASCO conference highlighted the success of Chinese companies, with 74 studies presented and 11 in the LBA category, showcasing advancements in clinical pipelines [22]. Biologics - GSK's FDA approval of mepolizumab for COPD treatment is noted, with projected global sales of €1.784 billion in 2024, indicating a growing market for targeted IL-5 therapies [2]. Medical Services & Consumer Healthcare - Alcon reported a slight decline in surgical sales but a 1% increase in vision care sales, driven by product innovation in contact lenses [3]. Medical Devices - Johnson & Johnson launched the SOUNDSTAR CRYSTAL ultrasound catheter in the U.S., indicating a robust pipeline of innovative medical devices [3]. Pharmacies - The report highlights a supportive policy environment for pharmacies, with opportunities for expanding health promotion and nutritional services, driven by recent government initiatives [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests actively monitoring updates on innovative drug clinical data and anticipates a favorable market for traditional Chinese medicine, pharmacies, and medical services as summer approaches [4][11]. Key Targets - Notable companies for investment consideration include Kelun-Biotech, Renfu Pharmaceutical, East China Pharmaceutical, and Mindray Medical, among others [5].

Group 1 - The report anticipates a new round of Juglar cycle starting as early as Q3 2025, with a focus on technology, while maintaining a view of increasing volatility in global equity markets until then [1][12][16] - The report highlights that the domestic economic drivers are expected to rely significantly on government departments, with a noted decrease in the marginal effectiveness of the "two new" policies [1][12] - The report indicates that the U.S. economy may face "stagflation" risks, which could negatively impact global trade and market sentiment [1][13] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that central bank gold purchases are becoming a long-term demand trend, with a significant increase in their contribution to gold price dynamics [2][23] - It identifies the top five countries contributing to gold reserve increases as Russia, China, India, Turkey, and Poland, with a notable acceleration in gold purchases since 2022 [2][33] - The report suggests that the demand for gold from central banks is expected to continue rising due to geopolitical uncertainties and the weakening of the U.S. dollar's credit [3][50] Group 3 - The report outlines three main trading strategies: focusing on gold and gold stocks due to potential undervaluation, investing in innovative pharmaceuticals, and capitalizing on structural opportunities in the technology sector [4][65] - It highlights that the domestic fiscal stimulus is expected to support sectors such as infrastructure and service consumption, which are seen as growth-oriented assets [4][65] - The report notes that the A-share market is anticipated to have structural opportunities driven by AI industry logic, particularly in sectors with low penetration rates [4][65]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a weak investment sentiment in the real estate sector, but new home sales data shows signs of bottoming out and recovery [7] Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a bottoming phase, with new home sales showing a week-on-week increase of 16% and a year-on-year increase of 9% in 47 cities [4][50] - The land market has seen a decline in activity, with a total of 493,000 square meters of residential land sold in the week of May 17-23, representing a 6% week-on-week increase but a 34% year-on-year decrease [44] - Special bonds for land acquisition have accelerated, with over 350 billion yuan allocated for the purchase of idle land across nearly 3,000 plots [5][14] Summary by Sections Real Estate Market Overview - The A-share real estate sector declined by 1.5% this week, ranking 23rd among all sectors, while the Hong Kong real estate sector fell by 0.7%, ranking 11th [30] - The property service and management index in Hong Kong decreased by 1.8%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 1.4% [38] New Home Sales - In the week of May 17-23, new home sales totaled 404,000 square meters, with a 16% increase from the previous week and a 9% increase year-on-year [4][50] - Sales in first-tier cities saw a slight increase of 1% week-on-week but a decrease of 1% year-on-year [50] Second-Hand Home Sales - Second-hand home transactions totaled 284,000 square meters, with a 4% week-on-week increase and a 10% year-on-year increase [58] - First-tier cities experienced a 2% decrease week-on-week but a 25% increase year-on-year [58] Land Market Activity - The total area of residential land sold in 300 cities reached 131.98 million square meters year-to-date, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.5% [44] - The average premium rate for land sales was 13% during the week [44] Investment Recommendations - Developers are advised to focus on first-tier and core second-tier cities, emphasizing improved products and maintaining land acquisition capabilities [7] - Real estate agencies with strong competitive advantages, such as Beike, are recommended due to increasing market activity [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong confidence in the pharmaceutical sector, anticipating a reversal trend in 2025, with innovative drugs and left-side sector recovery being the primary investment opportunities [4][11]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector has shown strong performance, highlighted by the unexpected $1.25 billion upfront payment from the significant deal between Sanofi and Pfizer, which enhances market confidence in the quality and market value of Chinese innovative drugs [11][20]. - The ASCO conference showcased a wealth of clinical data from domestic innovative pharmaceutical companies, indicating a potential new wave of data-driven innovation in the drug market [11][22]. - There is notable potential for recovery in sectors such as chain pharmacies, generic drugs, traditional Chinese medicine, and in vitro diagnostics, with companies like YaoYao Pharmacy and Changchun High-tech gaining market recognition following improvements in their fundamentals [11][20]. Summary by Sections Pharmaceutical Sector - Sanofi's significant deal with Pfizer includes a $1.25 billion upfront payment, reinforcing the market's recognition of the value of Chinese innovative drugs [20]. - At ASCO, 74 clinical studies from Chinese companies were presented, with 11 entries in the Late Breaking Abstracts (LBA) category, showcasing advancements in various cancer treatments [22]. Biopharmaceuticals - GSK's FDA approval of mepolizumab for COPD treatment is expected to generate €1.784 billion in global sales by 2024, with several domestic companies also developing IL-5 targeted drugs [2][9]. Medical Services & Consumer Healthcare - Alcon reported a slight decline in surgical sales but a 3% growth in vision care sales, driven by innovations in contact lenses [3][11]. Medical Devices - Johnson & Johnson launched the SOUNDSTAR CRYSTAL ultrasound catheter in the U.S., indicating a robust pipeline of innovative products in the medical device sector [3][12]. Pharmacies - The Chinese government has initiated policies to enhance the health promotion functions of retail pharmacies, suggesting a favorable environment for non-drug category expansion [3][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests actively monitoring updates on innovative drug clinical data and the upcoming summer trends in traditional Chinese medicine, pharmacies, and healthcare services [4][11]. Key Targets - Notable companies to watch include Kelun-Botai, Renfu Pharmaceutical, East China Pharmaceutical, and Mindray Medical, among others [5][15].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a strong investment trend in the automotive sector, particularly in the areas of intelligent driving and robotics, indicating a bullish outlook for the ROBO+ sector [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the commercial window for Robotaxi has opened, with increasing passenger willingness to pay and cities willing to allow deployment, indicating a significant shift in the market dynamics [1][12]. - The introduction of Xiaomi's first SUV model, YU7, is expected to capture a significant market share in the mid-to-large pure electric SUV segment due to its long range and fast charging capabilities [1][9]. - WeRide's financial report shows a doubling of Robotaxi revenue share and accelerated global expansion, with operations in 10 cities across 3 continents [10][11]. - Xiaoma Zhixing's financial results indicate a strong growth trajectory for Robotaxi, with plans to scale its fleet to 1,000 units by the end of the year [12]. Summary by Sections Intelligent Driving - Xiaomi's YU7 SUV is positioned as a luxury high-performance model, with specifications indicating a competitive edge in the market [9]. - WeRide's Q1 2025 financials show total revenue of 72.4 million yuan, with a net loss of 385 million yuan, reflecting increased investment in autonomous driving [10][11]. - Xiaoma Zhixing reported a Q1 revenue of 102 million yuan, with Robotaxi business revenue growing over 200% [12]. - Tesla plans to launch its Robotaxi project in Austin, which is expected to reshape urban transportation [13]. - Dongfeng and Huawei signed a strategic cooperation agreement to enhance automotive intelligence and digitalization [14]. Robotics - Zhiyuan Robotics announced a significant breakthrough with the release of the EVAC world model and EWMBench evaluation benchmark, aimed at enhancing embodied intelligence research [25][29]. - RoboCare, in collaboration with Obsidian Technology, has developed a cognitive training system for elderly care, demonstrating practical applications of robotics in healthcare [30][34]. - Madi Technology has launched a smart care platform in partnership with major tech firms, focusing on integrating AI and robotics for elderly care [36]. - The report emphasizes the importance of core components in robotics, with several companies making strides in developing essential parts for robotic applications [41][42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, suggesting a potential upside of over 15% within the next 6-12 months [5][14]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from the recent passing of the Stablecoin Regulation Bill in Hong Kong, allowing institutions to apply for compliance as stablecoin issuers by the end of the year [2]. - ZA Bank, a subsidiary of the company, aims to provide banking services for stablecoin issuers and has already partnered with over 80 Web3 companies [2][3]. - The company has launched cryptocurrency trading services for retail users in Hong Kong, simplifying the investment process through its app [3]. - The company is expected to see significant profit growth in 2025, with a projected net profit of 905 million yuan, reflecting a 50% increase from the previous year [5][11]. Financial Projections - Insurance service revenue is projected to grow from 27,535 million yuan in 2023 to 45,823 million yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.5% [11]. - The company's net profit is expected to increase from 294 million yuan in 2023 to 1,360 million yuan by 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [11]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decrease from 0.84 in 2023 to 0.62 by 2027, suggesting potential undervaluation [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, suggesting a potential upside of over 15% within the next 6-12 months [5][14]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from the recent passing of the Stablecoin Regulation Bill in Hong Kong, allowing institutions to apply for compliance as stablecoin issuers by the end of the year [2]. - ZA Bank, a subsidiary of the company, aims to provide banking services for Web 3.0 and has already partnered with over 80 Web3 companies, enhancing its market presence [2][3]. - The company has launched cryptocurrency trading services for retail users in Hong Kong, simplifying the investment process through its app [3]. - The company is expected to see significant profit growth in 2025, with a projected net profit of 905 million yuan, reflecting a 50% increase from the previous year [5][11]. Summary by Sections Business Development - ZA Bank is the first digital bank in Hong Kong to offer reserve banking services for stablecoin issuers, collaborating with Circle Innovation Technology as one of the first sandbox participants [2][4]. - The bank has established strong ties with digital asset exchanges and stablecoin issuers, indicating potential for further collaborations [4]. Financial Projections - The company anticipates a substantial increase in net profit for 2025, with a low base in the first half of 2024, where net profit is expected to be only 5.5 million yuan [5]. - The projected insurance service revenue for 2025 is 35.26 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 11.1% [11]. Valuation Metrics - As of now, the company's price-to-book (PB) ratio is 0.74, which is at the 5% percentile of valuations since 2018, indicating a low valuation opportunity [5].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the home appliance industry, indicating strong growth potential in both domestic and emerging markets [4][54]. Core Insights - In April, home appliance exports showed a mixed performance, with a slight increase in quantity (+1.5%) but a decrease in value (-1.7%). Notably, air conditioner exports rose significantly by 14.5% [11][13]. - Emerging markets, particularly Southeast Asia and Africa, demonstrated robust growth in appliance exports, with increases of 70% and 43% respectively [13][16]. - The domestic air conditioner production is expected to increase by 35% in June 2025, driven by improved consumer confidence and government policies [21][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Export Performance - In April, air conditioner exports reached 10.68 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, while refrigerator exports slightly declined by 0.7% [11][12]. - Southeast Asia and Africa led the growth in appliance exports, with significant increases in export values [13][14]. 2. Production Insights - Air conditioner production in June 2025 is projected at 20.75 million units, a 17% increase year-on-year, with domestic production up by 35.4% [21][23]. - Factors contributing to this growth include enhanced retail market dynamics and government incentives [23]. 3. Market Trends - The home appliance retail sector has maintained high growth, supported by domestic demand and favorable government policies [4][54]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on domestic demand and subsidy-driven growth opportunities in the white goods sector [4][54]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main lines: domestic demand and subsidies, structural upgrades in the black goods sector, and opportunities in small appliances [4][54].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the home appliance industry, particularly focusing on domestic demand and emerging market exports [4][54]. Core Insights - In April, home appliance exports showed a mixed performance with a slight increase in quantity (+1.5%) but a decrease in value (-1.7%). Air conditioner exports rose significantly by 14.5% [11][13]. - The report highlights strong growth in emerging markets, particularly Southeast Asia and Africa, with export values increasing by 70% and 43% respectively [13][16]. - The air conditioning production for June is projected to increase by 35%, driven by domestic demand and favorable market conditions [21][23]. Summary by Sections 1. April Home Appliance Export Performance - Home appliance exports in April showed a quantity increase of 1.5% but a value decrease of 1.7%. Air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines, and LCD TVs had varied performances with air conditioners and washing machines showing notable growth [11][12][14]. 2. Regional Export Trends - Southeast Asia and Africa led the growth in exports, while North America and Europe experienced significant declines. For instance, air conditioner exports to South America and the Middle East grew by 37% and 31% respectively [16][18]. 3. Production Insights - The report indicates that air conditioning production in June is expected to reach 20.75 million units, a 17% increase year-on-year, with domestic production rising by 35.4% [21][23]. 4. Market and Sector Tracking - The report tracks market performance, noting a slight decline in the Shanghai Composite Index but a 0.4% increase in the home appliance sector index. Key stocks showed varied performance, with notable gains in companies like Stone Technology and Aishida [24][27]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic demand and subsidy-driven growth in the white goods sector, as well as opportunities in the black goods sector and small appliances [4][54].

4月已公布重点出口商品中，出口增速最高的是中间品和资本品，分别为8.5%、8.2%，显著高于消费品的出口增速-4.1%。 另外，5 月 6 日美国公布的贸易数据也显示，3 月美国继续从全球"抢进口"。 出口增速的压力将在 6-7 月开始显现。一是从美国企业下订单到商品出口存在 2 个月左右的时间差，4 月 PMI 新出口 订单大幅下滑 4.3 个百分点至 44.7%，创 2023 年以来新低，预计从 6 月初开始出口增速可能开始减弱。二是随着 90 天豁免期结束（4 月 9 日开始，到 7 月 9 日），出口的不确定性在升温，同时前期企业"抢进口"也透支了一部分需求。 三是美国经济下行压力逐渐显现导致的需求不足也会成为后续出口的核心拖累之一。 风险提示 美国关税政策来回波动巨大，中美之间贸易谈判不确定性高。 全球贸易前景不明确，美国与其他国家之间的贸易往来不确定性高。 关税贸易摩擦下，中国出口在后续或面临大幅下行压力，并对中国经济造成明显冲击。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 用使箱邮共公益兴华国司公限有理管产资险保益兴华国供仅告报此 4 月中国出口（以美元计价）同比增长 8.1%，表现出明显的"抢转口"特征。 扫 ...