Group 1: Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has declined, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread has narrowed. Inflation expectations have decreased [1][12]. - Offshore dollar liquidity has generally loosened, while domestic interbank liquidity remains balanced and slightly loose [1][18]. Group 2: Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has decreased, with major indices also showing a decline in volatility. However, over half of the sectors still maintain trading activity above the 80th percentile [2][28]. - The volatility of major indices has decreased, while the volatility of the communication and electronics sectors remains above the 80th historical percentile [2][30]. Group 3: Institutional Research - The electronic, pharmaceutical, non-ferrous metals, electric new energy, and food and beverage sectors have seen high research activity, with steel, electric new energy, media, textile and apparel, and construction sectors experiencing a rise in research activity [3][41]. Group 4: Analyst Forecasts - The net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted, with increases in the transportation, construction, non-bank financials, military, computer, and banking sectors [4][21]. - The net profit forecasts for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index for 2025 and 2026 have been raised, while the forecasts for the CSI 500 and ChiNext indices have been lowered [4][23]. Group 5: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has decreased, with a slight net sell-off in A-shares. The trading volume ratio in sectors like electric new energy, home appliances, and computers has increased [5][32]. - Northbound trading has shown net buying in sectors such as electronics, machinery, and chemicals, while net selling has occurred in pharmaceuticals, food and beverages, and non-bank financials [5][33]. Group 6: Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has significantly decreased to the lowest level since mid-August 2025, with a slight net buying of 6.736 billion yuan last week, primarily in electric new energy, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals [6][35]. - The proportion of financing purchases in sectors like steel, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and petrochemicals has increased [6][38]. Group 7: Fund Activity - The positions of actively managed equity funds have decreased, with net redemptions in ETFs, particularly among institutional ETFs. Active equity funds have mainly increased positions in non-ferrous metals, automobiles, and home appliances [8][45]. - The correlation of actively managed equity funds with large-cap growth and mid/small-cap value has increased, while the correlation with mid/small-cap growth and large-cap value has decreased [8][48].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a marginal increase in investment in the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector, with specific recommendations for non-bank financials, communications, real estate, building materials, media, and banks [1]. Core Insights - The industry rotation model is driven by three main dimensions: fundamentals, price-volume, and sentiment, aiming to capture market microstructure and industry opportunities. The model has been backtested bi-weekly and expanded to include factors such as momentum, trends, capital flow, sentiment, market structure, and volatility [1]. - The sentiment score for the real estate sector has significantly improved, increasing by 0.98, while the media sector's price-volume factors have seen a notable increase of 3.24 [1]. Summary by Sections Industry Recommendations - The recommended ETFs include: - E Fund CSI 300 Non-Bank ETF - Guotai CSI All-Index Communication Equipment ETF - Southern CSI All-Index Real Estate ETF - Guotai CSI All-Index Building Materials ETF - GF CSI Media ETF - Huabao CSI Bank ETF [3]. Performance Metrics - The industry rotation strategy has increased by 0.25% over the past two weeks, with an excess return of 0.64% compared to an equal-weighted industry benchmark. Year-to-date, the strategy has risen by 34.89%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.77 and a Calmar ratio of 2.88 [4][6].

Core Insights - Tianhong Fund has established a strong presence in the index-enhanced quantitative fund sector, launching its first product in August 2019 and expanding its offerings steadily, with a significant growth phase expected in 2025 [2][10] - As of the end of Q3 2025, Tianhong Fund's index-enhanced quantitative funds reached 19 products with a total management scale exceeding 12.084 billion yuan, positioning it among the few teams in the industry to surpass the "100 billion" mark [12][10] - The fund has developed a comprehensive product matrix that provides investors with a complete set of quantitative tools for precise asset allocation across different market environments [2][10] Group 1: Performance and Risk Management - Tianhong Fund's broad-based index-enhanced quantitative products have consistently outperformed their peers, achieving excess returns that surpass the average of similar funds over both short-term and long-term periods [3][16] - The quantitative team emphasizes risk management throughout the investment process, effectively controlling drawdowns and demonstrating strong risk-adjusted performance [18][22] - As of October 31, 2025, the maximum drawdowns for Tianhong's major products ranked in the top 15% of the industry, showcasing the team's ability to manage risk while pursuing excess returns [18][22] Group 2: Industry-Specific Strategies - Tianhong Fund's industry-specific index-enhanced quantitative products cover major sectors such as technology, consumer goods, manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and new energy, with many products outperforming similar actively managed funds [4][23] - Over the past three years, products like Tianhong's High-end Equipment Manufacturing and Consumer 100 Index Enhanced funds have shown a significant advantage, outperforming their peers by over 25% [4][23] Group 3: Quantitative Research and Technology Integration - The fund has built a complete closed-loop system from signal mining to performance evaluation, integrating advanced AI technologies into its investment processes to enhance its quantitative research capabilities [5][31] - The quantitative team employs a variety of AI models and has developed a robust feature engineering framework, which supports the models with diverse and substantial input data [32][31] - The risk model has been customized to better fit the characteristics of the A-share market, allowing for more precise risk assessment and control [35][36] Group 4: Team Structure and Stability - The quantitative team at Tianhong Fund consists of 8 members, including 4 fund managers and 4 researchers, all with strong backgrounds in finance, statistics, and computer science [6][48] - The team has maintained a high level of stability, with an average tenure of over 6 years, ensuring continuity in investment philosophy and strategy development [48]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Macro Timing Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is designed to provide equity allocation recommendations based on macroeconomic indicators, including economic growth and monetary liquidity[5][42] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model evaluates the strength of signals from two dimensions: economic growth and monetary liquidity - For each dimension, a percentage signal strength is assigned (e.g., 0% for economic growth and 50% for monetary liquidity in October)[42][43] - The model aggregates these signals to determine the recommended equity allocation percentage (e.g., 25% for November)[42][43] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has achieved a year-to-date return of 13.55%, underperforming the Wind All A Index, which returned 25.61% during the same period[42][45] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Macro Timing Strategy - **Equity Allocation Recommendation**: 25% for November[42][43] - **Year-to-Date Return**: 13.55%[42][45] - **Benchmark (Wind All A Index) Return**: 25.61%[42][45] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Value Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the relative valuation of stocks to identify undervalued opportunities[48][60] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Includes metrics such as book-to-price ratio (BP_LR), earnings-to-price ratio (EP_FTTM), and sales-to-enterprise value ratio (Sales2EV)[60] - **Factor Evaluation**: The value factor performed strongly in the past week, with an IC mean of 12.38% in the CSI 300 stock pool and 31.97% in the CSI 500 stock pool[48][49] 2. Factor Name: Volatility Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the risk and price fluctuation characteristics of stocks[48][61] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Includes metrics such as 60-day return volatility (Volatility_60D) and CAPM residual volatility (IV_CAPM)[61] - **Factor Evaluation**: The volatility factor showed strong performance, with an IC mean of 19.89% in the All A-share stock pool and 22.41% in the CSI 1000 stock pool[48][49] 3. Factor Name: Technical Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Utilizes historical price and volume data to identify trading opportunities[48][61] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Includes metrics such as 20-day turnover mean (Turnover_Mean_20D) and 240-day return skewness (Skewness_240D)[61] - **Factor Evaluation**: The technical factor achieved an IC mean of 13.68% in the All A-share stock pool and 8.17% in the CSI 500 stock pool[48][49] 4. Factor Name: Growth Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Focuses on identifying stocks with high growth potential based on financial metrics[48][60] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Includes metrics such as single-quarter net income growth (NetIncome_SQ_Chg1Y) and single-quarter operating income growth (OperatingIncome_SQ_Chg1Y)[60] - **Factor Evaluation**: The growth factor underperformed, with an IC mean of -6.34% in the All A-share stock pool and -10.06% in the CSI 500 stock pool[48][49] 5. Factor Name: Quality Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Identifies stocks with strong financial health and operational efficiency[48][61] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Includes metrics such as operating cash flow to current debt ratio (OCF2CurrentDebt) and gross margin (GrossMargin_TTM)[61] - **Factor Evaluation**: The quality factor underperformed, with an IC mean of -14.36% in the All A-share stock pool and -14.07% in the CSI 500 stock pool[48][49] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Value Factor - **IC Mean**: 12.38% (CSI 300), 31.97% (CSI 500), 22.41% (CSI 1000)[48][49] - **Multi-Long-Short Portfolio Return**: Positive across all stock pools[48][49] 2. Volatility Factor - **IC Mean**: 19.89% (All A-shares), 22.41% (CSI 1000)[48][49] - **Multi-Long-Short Portfolio Return**: Positive across all stock pools[48][49] 3. Technical Factor - **IC Mean**: 13.68% (All A-shares), 8.17% (CSI 500)[48][49] - **Multi-Long-Short Portfolio Return**: Positive across all stock pools[48][49] 4. Growth Factor - **IC Mean**: -6.34% (All A-shares), -10.06% (CSI 500)[48][49] - **Multi-Long-Short Portfolio Return**: Negative across all stock pools[48][49] 5. Quality Factor - **IC Mean**: -14.36% (All A-shares), -14.07% (CSI 500)[48][49] - **Multi-Long-Short Portfolio Return**: Negative across all stock pools[48][49]

- The report mentions the construction of enhanced strategy ETFs, which are based on indices such as CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, SSE STAR 50, and others. These ETFs aim to outperform their respective benchmarks through quantitative strategies and factor-based enhancements [23][24][35] - The construction process involves selecting stocks from the underlying index and applying quantitative models to optimize the portfolio. The models may include factor analysis, risk control, and return enhancement techniques. Specific formulas or methodologies are not detailed in the report [23][24][35] - Evaluation of enhanced strategy ETFs indicates that 18 out of 51 ETFs outperformed their benchmarks last week. Over the past year, 30 out of 33 ETFs achieved positive excess returns, showcasing the effectiveness of the strategy [23][24][35] - Testing results for enhanced strategy ETFs show varying excess returns. For example, the CSI 300 Enhanced ETF achieved a weekly excess return of 0.64%, while the CSI 500 Enhanced ETF achieved 1.42%. Over the past year, the CSI 1000 Enhanced ETF delivered an excess return of 28.67%, and the Guozheng 2000 Enhanced ETF achieved 33.35% [24][35][36]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on cloud vendors and companies with exceeding expectations in the current market environment [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a divergence in market performance, with consumer companies facing pressure while AI technology companies continue to show mixed results. Concerns about AI valuation bubbles persist, but leading tech companies like Microsoft, Google, and Meta maintain strong cash flows, suggesting a stable outlook for cloud vendors [3]. - The gaming demand remains robust, although there is a short-term lack of new game releases. Attention is drawn to the progress of key game tests and launches, which could drive revenue growth for related companies [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring quarterly reports from major Chinese companies like Tencent, JD, Baidu, and Alibaba, as well as the ongoing value in sectors like PDD and the gaming industry [3]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Consumer & Internet - **Education**: The education index fell by 3.59%, with notable performance differences among companies. The implementation of a spring and autumn break system in Sichuan is expected to impact the sector positively [11][18]. - **Luxury & Gaming**: The luxury goods and gaming sectors are closely tied to macroeconomic conditions. Recent Q3 earnings from major gaming companies exceeded expectations, benefiting from a longer holiday schedule in 2026 [19][24]. - **Coffee & Tea**: The coffee sector remains vibrant, while the tea sector faces challenges due to reduced delivery platform subsidies and seasonal competition [3][27]. - **E-commerce**: The e-commerce sector is under pressure, with a lackluster performance during the Double Eleven shopping festival [3][35]. 1.2 Platform & Technology - **Streaming Platforms**: The streaming sector is driven by domestic demand, with platforms like Spotify reporting better-than-expected earnings [3][42]. - **Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers**: The cryptocurrency market is experiencing volatility, with a significant drop in global market value. However, there are potential buying opportunities following recent corrections [3][43]. - **Automotive Services**: The automotive aftermarket is projected to decline, with a year-over-year decrease of 4% expected by October 2025 [3][61]. 1.3 Media - The media sector is experiencing mixed performance, with streaming services facing challenges but also opportunities for growth through strategic partnerships and content offerings [3][41].

Report Title - Active Equity Fund Monthly Investment Portfolio - October 2025 [1][2] Market and Fund Performance in September - Major broad - based indices rose, with the ChiNext Index and STAR 50 Index leading the gains, while the SSE 50 Index performed weakly [3] - Among industry sectors, the CITIC Growth Index and CITIC Cyclical Index had positive monthly returns, while the CITIC Consumption Index and CITIC Financial Index fell by 2% - 3% [3] - In terms of fund strategies, growth - style funds, especially those focused on prosperity and trend, outperformed, with an average increase of over 7%, while deep - value style funds lagged [3] - Among industry - themed funds, technology, cyclical, and new - energy themed funds had positive returns, while pharmaceutical and consumption - themed funds had negative returns [3] - Growth style outperformed value style, and large - and mid - cap styles outperformed small - cap styles [3] Top - Performing Funds Recent One - Month Performance - **All - Market Top Ten**: Funds like Noan Advanced Manufacturing A (001707.OF) and Huabao Competitive Advantage A (010335.OF) had significant monthly increases, with Noan Advanced Manufacturing A rising 31.08% and Huabao Competitive Advantage A rising 28.27% [6] - **Industry - Themed Top Ten**: Noan Research Preferred A (008185.OF) led with a 36.32% monthly increase, followed by Silver Fund Integrated Circuit A (013840.OF) with a 33.68% increase [6] Year - to - Date Performance - **All - Market Top Ten**: Hengyue Advantage Selection (011815.OF) had a YTD increase of 121.69%, and Jiaoyin Optimal Return A (519770.OF) had a 115.96% increase [8] - **Industry - Themed Top Ten**: Yongying Technology Smart Selection A (022364.OF) led with a 187.86% YTD increase, followed by China - Europe Digital Economy A (018993.OF) with a 132.39% increase [8] October Equity Fund Portfolio Construction Market Outlook - In the short term, the core logic of incremental funds, improved internal returns, and policy resonance remains unchanged, but the risk premium is near the median, and some valuations are relatively high, requiring continuous growth in net profit. The market may slow down and fluctuate [10] Portfolio Construction Principles - **Sustained Tech Growth Opportunities**: The tech growth theme remains the main line of the bull market, but short - term volatility may be high. Consider funds with diversified investment directions and rotation strategies [10] - **Anti - Involution Policy Catalysts**: Industries at the bottom of the cycle, such as chemicals, steel, coal, and some energy metals, are expected to benefit from anti - involution policies, with improved risk - reward ratios [10] - **Style Rotation of Dividend - Value Stocks**: Dividend - value sectors, although with low profit expectations, have attractive dividend yields compared to treasury bond yields. During market fluctuations, funds may flow to low - level sectors, creating investment opportunities [10] Fund Portfolios - **Aggressive Portfolio**: Includes funds like Cathay Golden Prosperity Return A (019328.OF) and Fullgoal Steady Growth A (010624.OF), with a focus on technology, manufacturing, and consumption sectors [11] - **Conservative Portfolio**: Comprises funds such as Merchants Upstream Industry A (005161.OF) and ChinaAMC Value Selection A (007592.OF), with a relatively balanced distribution across sectors [11] Portfolio Distribution - **Aggressive Portfolio**: Technology accounts for 34.12%, followed by cycle at 20.21% and manufacturing at 15.94% [15] - **Conservative Portfolio**: Cycle has the highest proportion at 28.28%, followed by manufacturing at 17.79% and technology at 21.46% [17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - As of October 26, 2025, the model recommends non-bank finance, communication, real estate, building materials, media, and banking, with marginal increases in media and real estate investments [1] - The non-bank finance, communication, and real estate sectors are mainly driven by fundamentals, building materials and media are mainly influenced by sentiment, and banking is driven by both quantitative and fundamental factors [1] - The industry rotation model analyzes the market from three dimensions: fundamentals, volume-price, and sentiment, aiming to capture industry opportunities [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Rotation Model - The model backtests original factors on a bi-weekly basis and expands volume-price factors from dimensions such as momentum and trend, capital flow and sentiment, and market structure and volatility [1] - Six relatively effective factors are selected to construct the industry rotation strategy [1] Industry ETF Portfolio - The current industry ETF portfolio includes six ETFs: E Fund CSI 300 Non-Bank Finance ETF, Guotai CSI All-Index Communication Equipment ETF, Southern CSI All-Index Real Estate ETF, Guotai CSI All-Index Building Materials ETF, GF CSI Media ETF, and Huabao CSI Bank ETF [3] Performance of the Industry Rotation Strategy - In the past two weeks, the strategy rose 0.25%, with an excess return of 0.64% compared to the industry equal-weighted index [4][6] - Since the beginning of the year, the strategy has risen 34.89%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.77 and a Calmar ratio of 2.88 in the past year [4] Strategy/Composite Factor Backtesting Results - Different factors have different IC means, IC standard deviations, ICIRs, frequencies of IC>0, and p-Values. For example, the成交均价因子 has an IC mean of 6.19%, an IC standard deviation of 27.11%, and an ICIR of 22.83% [10]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the market sentiment index has rebounded to around 50%, suggesting a recovery from overly pessimistic trading structures, leading to a neutral market phase [3][8][6] - The report draws parallels between the current market conditions and those of 2019, suggesting that the end-of-year market performance may partially replicate that of 2019, although achieving similar slopes and amplitudes will require additional conditions [5][28][27] Market Dynamics - The market has continued to extend duration amid fluctuations, with the median duration of long-term bond funds rising for four consecutive weeks, nearing year-to-date highs [3][8] - The report highlights that the current market divergence remains high, indicating a healthier microstructure compared to previous peaks [3][8] Historical Comparison - The report compares the macroeconomic backgrounds and interest rate trends of 2019 and 2025, noting that both years experienced significant interest rate declines in the preceding year, leading to a transition from a strong bull market to a more volatile phase [9][4] - It emphasizes that the economic and policy environments differ between the two years, particularly in terms of credit cycles and monetary policy space [5][28] Fundamental Analysis - The report identifies that both years faced similar fundamental and event-driven factors, with 2019's interest rate movements influenced by economic data and trade tensions, while this year's trajectory has mirrored those influences [14][16] - The report notes that the current credit cycle is still stabilizing, contrasting with the mild expansion seen in the latter half of 2019 [17][28] Policy and Funding Environment - The report discusses the importance of monetary policy and funding conditions, indicating that unexpected rate cuts and liquidity during the year-end period in 2019 significantly influenced market performance [23][28] - It suggests that the current monetary policy environment is less conducive to similar outcomes unless there are unexpected rate cuts or significant shifts in funding rates [28][23] Trading Sentiment - The report highlights that market sentiment has shown a consistent recovery pattern, with the sentiment index rising from approximately 33% to around 50%, indicating a potential for sustained recovery [23][25] - It also notes that the current micro trading structure is moderately healthy, but the lack of additional easing policies may limit the market's upward potential [23][28] Technical Analysis - The report provides statistical insights into the likelihood of mean reversion following significant monthly interest rate movements, suggesting that large fluctuations in a volatile market often do not lead to sustained trends [26][27] - It indicates that the current market is in a transitional phase, with the potential for interest rates to revert to mean levels following significant movements [26][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report As of November 7, the durations of general credit bonds and secondary bonds have returned to high levels. The weighted average trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds are at over 90% of their historical highs since 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading durations of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds are at different historical levels, and the durations of other financial bonds have generally shortened, with lease company bonds at a relatively high historical percentile [2][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Full - Variety Maturity Overview - As of November 7, the weighted trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds are 2.20 years and 2.82 years respectively, at over 90% of their historical highs since 2021 [2][9]. - Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading durations of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds are 4.45 years, 3.81 years, and 2.16 years respectively. The general commercial financial bonds are at a relatively low historical level [2][9]. - For other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities sub - bonds, insurance company bonds, and lease company bonds are 1.74 years, 2.38 years, 3.31 years, and 1.32 years respectively. The overall duration of other financial bonds has shortened, and lease company bonds are at a relatively high historical percentile [2][9]. - The coupon duration congestion index has slightly increased. After reaching its peak in March 2024 and then declining, it has rebounded this week and is currently at the 35.6% level since March 2021 [11]. 3.2 Variety Microscope Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average trading duration of urban investment bonds hovers around 2.32 years. The duration of Gansu provincial - level urban investment bonds has extended to 3.25 years, while the trading duration of Shanghai district - level urban investment bonds has shortened to around 1.47 years [3][15]. - The historical percentiles of the durations of urban investment bonds in regions such as Chongqing district - level, Henan prefecture - level, and Anhui prefecture - level have exceeded 90%. The durations of Chongqing district - level and Gansu provincial - level urban investment bonds are approaching their highest levels since 2021 [3][15]. Industrial Bonds - The weighted average trading duration of industrial bonds has slightly shortened compared to last week and is generally around 2.27 years. The trading durations of the non - ferrous metals and public utilities industries have extended to 2.48 years and 3.29 years respectively [3][21]. - The trading duration of the real estate industry is at a relatively low historical percentile, while the building materials and commercial retail industries are at relatively high historical percentiles [3][21]. Commercial Bank Bonds - The duration of general commercial financial bonds has extended to 2.16 years, at the 67.6% historical percentile, lower than the level of the same period last year [3][23]. - The duration of secondary capital bonds has shortened to 4.45 years, at the 97.9% historical percentile, higher than the level of the same period last year [3][23]. - The duration of bank perpetual bonds has shortened to 3.81 years, at the 69.7% historical percentile, higher than the level of the same period last year [3][23]. Other Financial Bonds - In terms of the weighted average trading duration, insurance company bonds > securities sub - bonds > securities company bonds > lease company bonds, at the 70%, 63.9%, 63.9%, and 78% historical percentiles respectively. The duration of insurance company bonds has significantly extended compared to last week [3][26].