Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant quarter-on-quarter increase in performance, indicating a potential bottoming out of its financials, with a substantial increase in contract liabilities reflecting order recovery [1][3] - The gross margin remained stable, while the net profit margin saw a slight increase, indicating operational efficiency [2] - Successful fundraising of 4 billion RMB through a private placement is expected to accelerate new capacity construction, showcasing the company's confidence in future growth [2][4] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 14.628 billion RMB, down 32.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.136 billion RMB, down 29.8% [1] - In Q2 2025, revenue was 8.795 billion RMB, a decrease of 27.5% year-on-year but an increase of 50.8% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 706 million RMB, down 21.8% year-on-year but up 63.9% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company’s gross margin for H1 2025 was 12.3%, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 7.8%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points [2] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.819 billion RMB, 4.634 billion RMB, and 5.577 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.54%, 21.33%, and 20.36% [4] - The estimated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 48, 39, and 33 times, respectively [4]

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index continued to decline, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread has narrowed [1][15] - The nominal and real interest rates of 10Y US Treasury bonds both fell, indicating a rebound in inflation expectations [1][15] - Offshore dollar liquidity has tightened, while the domestic interbank funding situation is overall balanced, initially tightening and then loosening [1][15] Market Trading Activity - Market trading activity has continued to rise, with most industry trading heat above the 80th percentile [2][24] - The volatility of major indices has increased, while most industry volatilities remain below the 60th percentile [2][30] - Market liquidity indicators have slightly rebounded, but liquidity indicators across sectors remain below the 60th historical percentile [2][35] Institutional Research - The electronic, communication, computer, automotive, and pharmaceutical sectors have the highest research activity, with retail, non-ferrous metals, steel, electronics, and chemicals showing a month-on-month increase in research heat [3][42] Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have adjusted the net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026, with increases for sectors such as steel, coal, media, and computers [4][49] - The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts for 2025/2026 has increased [4][49] - The net profit forecasts for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index for 2025/2026 have been raised [4][49] Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has rebounded, but there has been overall net selling [5][31] - Based on the top 10 active stocks, the buy-sell ratio for electronic, computer, and non-bank sectors has increased [5][32] - For stocks with northbound holdings of less than 30 million shares, there were significant net purchases in media, non-ferrous metals, and communication sectors [5][33] Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has risen to the highest level since September 2024, with net purchases primarily in electronic, computer, and communication sectors [6][35] - The proportion of margin financing in sectors such as home appliances, automotive, and utilities has increased significantly [6][38] - Margin financing has seen net purchases across various styles, including large, mid, and small-cap growth and value stocks [6][39] Hot Stocks on the Dragon and Tiger List - The trading activity on the Dragon and Tiger list has continued to rise, with real estate, media, and computer sectors showing relatively high trading volumes [7][41] Active Equity Fund Positions - Active equity funds have increased their positions, particularly in sectors like military, electric power, and TMT [8][45] - The correlation between active equity funds and large-cap growth/mid-small-cap value has increased [8][48] - New equity fund issuance has rebounded, with active funds seeing a decrease and passive funds seeing an increase in issuance [8][50]

Demographic Trends - By 2024, the global population aged 65 and above will account for 10.2%, indicating a shift to a mildly aging society, with projections of 13.1% by 2035[2][15]. - China will officially enter a moderately aging society by 2024, with 15.6% of its population aged 65 and above, and is expected to reach 22.8% by 2035[3][25]. Challenges Faced by China - China is experiencing accelerated aging, with the proportion of the population aged 65 and above projected to reach 15.6% in 2024, nearing Japan's 1997 aging level[3][32]. - The total fertility rate in China has dropped to 1.0 in 2023, one of the lowest among major economies, indicating a severe challenge of low birth rates[3][28]. Economic Implications - The aging population will lead to a decline in the labor force, exerting downward pressure on potential growth rates, which are expected to drop to around 5.0% by 2026-2030 and further to 4.5% by 2031-2035[4][61]. - Japan's experience shows that after crossing two demographic turning points, the economy faced persistent negative output gaps, with 69% of the quarters from 1993 to 2024 recording negative growth gaps[4][68]. Inflation Dynamics - Aging populations typically exert inflationary pressures; however, many developed economies have experienced deflationary trends due to mismatched supply and demand shocks[5][74]. - In China, the short-term impact of aging may suppress inflation, but long-term effects could lead to upward inflationary pressures as labor supply contracts[5][80]. Policy Recommendations - To address the challenges of an aging population, increasing labor productivity is crucial, which can be achieved through technological advancements, raising labor participation rates, and attracting foreign labor[6][81]. - China should focus on enhancing its social security system to manage the economic impacts of an aging population effectively[6][32].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the rare earth industry, indicating a potential for significant price increases and improved valuations due to supply reforms and market dynamics [6][40]. Core Insights - The implementation of the "Interim Measures for Total Control of Rare Earth Mining and Smelting Separation" marks a significant regulatory shift, enhancing government control over the rare earth supply chain [1][12]. - Rapid increases in processing fees for heavy rare earths signal a tightening supply and improved bargaining power for compliant smelting plants [2][14]. - Export volumes for key rare earth materials are recovering, with notable increases in the export of neodymium-iron-boron, suggesting a positive trend for future exports [3][20]. - Supply disruptions from Myanmar's mining operations could further impact the domestic supply of rare earths, particularly if mining is halted as planned [4][36]. - Future quotas for rare earth mining may not be publicly disclosed, indicating a more controlled and potentially limited supply growth [5][40]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Regulatory Changes - The "Interim Measures" officially include previously unregulated imported ore processing, establishing a traceability system for better supply monitoring [1][12]. Section 2: Processing Fees - Heavy rare earth processing fees surged from 1,500 RMB/ton to 15,000 RMB/ton, reflecting a tightening market and reduced buyer interest in imported ores [2][14]. Section 3: Export Recovery - Following export controls in April 2025, there was a recovery in export volumes for terbium and neodymium-iron-boron, with July figures showing a 6% increase in neodymium-iron-boron exports [3][20]. Section 4: Supply Disruptions - Myanmar's mining operations face potential halts, which could significantly affect the domestic supply of neodymium and praseodymium [4][36]. Section 5: Quota Management - The first batch of mining and smelting separation quotas for 2025 has been issued but may not be publicly disclosed in the future, suggesting a more conservative growth outlook [5][40]. Section 6: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like China Rare Earth, Guangsheng Nonferrous, and Northern Rare Earth, which are positioned to benefit from supply reforms and market dynamics [6][43][44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the electronic fabric and copper foil sectors, highlighting their strong performance and market leadership in the AI industry chain [2][13]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that two leading companies in electronic fabric and copper foil have exceeded expectations in their mid-year reports, driven by AI contributions, continuous improvement in core businesses, and strong market share positions [2][13]. - The report also highlights the growth potential in the African building materials market, particularly for local manufacturing companies like Keda Manufacturing, which is expected to benefit from high demand and favorable local recognition [14]. - The advancements in quantum computing are noted, with significant developments from IBM and Tsinghua University, indicating a growing interest and potential in this field [15]. Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - Two leading companies in electronic fabric and copper foil have reported better-than-expected results, with AI contributing to profits and core businesses improving [2][13]. - Keda Manufacturing is highlighted as a leader in local production in Africa, benefiting from high demand and local support [14]. - Quantum computing advancements are being made, with IBM's roadmap and Tsinghua University's research indicating significant progress [15]. Market Performance - The building materials index showed a performance increase of 5.27%, with specific sectors like glass manufacturing and fiberglass performing particularly well [20]. - The report notes that the cement market is experiencing a slight price increase, with an average price of 343 RMB per ton, reflecting a 2 RMB increase from the previous period [17][28]. Price Changes in Building Materials - The report indicates that the national average price for cement has increased by 0.7%, with specific regions seeing price increases of 10-30 RMB per ton [28]. - The average price for float glass has decreased to 1205.78 RMB per ton, reflecting a decline of 2.42% [17][36]. Industry Trends - The report identifies a sustained high demand for AI materials, particularly in specialized fiberglass and high-grade copper foil, with expectations for continued growth in these areas [18]. - Traditional building material companies are accelerating their business transformations, with notable acquisitions and investments in AI-related fields [16].

Economic Indicators - The China Strategic Emerging Industries Purchasing Managers Index (EPMI) for August is 47.8, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating a marginal improvement in economic sentiment[4] - The production price index (PPI) is expected to decline by approximately 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year in August, reflecting weak overall factory prices despite a significant year-on-year improvement due to lower technical levels last year[6] Financial Data - From January to July, the real sector received approximately 19 trillion yuan in funding, an increase of 2.7 trillion yuan year-on-year, primarily driven by fiscal fund disbursements[10] - New deposits from residents amounted to 9.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 720 billion yuan, indicating a shift towards more liquid deposits[10] Market Trends - In the wake of new housing policies in Beijing, the year-on-year decline in commodity housing sales has narrowed, with second-hand housing sales showing a positive year-on-year growth[17] - Several small and medium-sized banks have lowered deposit rates, with rates for various terms adjusted down by 10 to 20 basis points[14] Risks - Ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions, tariff increases, and global supply chain adjustments pose risks of export volatility and declining corporate profits[3] - Changes in global geopolitical situations and international market fluctuations may continue to impact commodity prices and related industries[3]

Group 1: Geopolitical Context - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Tianjin Summit is the largest since the organization's inception, with over 20 foreign leaders attending, including Russia's President Putin and India's Prime Minister Modi[2] - The SCO has become a fundamental aspect of China's foreign diplomacy, especially as member countries face increasing pressure from the U.S., with tariffs exceeding 25% imposed on several SCO nations[2][3] Group 2: Economic Cooperation - In 2024, trade between China and SCO member countries reached $512.4 billion, accounting for approximately 8.3% of China's total foreign trade, indicating strong economic ties[19] - China is the largest trading partner for several SCO countries, including Russia and Kazakhstan, which are also key suppliers of energy resources, enhancing China's energy security[19] Group 3: Summit Agenda - The Tianjin Summit will focus on four main topics: internationalization of the Renminbi, cooperation in machinery manufacturing, resource product collaboration, and emerging industry partnerships[3][20] - The summit aims to strengthen the complementary relationship between resource supply and industrial demand, while also exploring new opportunities in digital economy and green development[20][21]

Core Insights - The report evaluates whether the bond market has fallen out of a safety margin due to high risk appetite and significant changes in the relative performance of major asset classes [2][7] - The analysis is conducted from both internal interest rate assessments and cross-asset pricing perspectives [7] Internal Interest Rate Assessment - The policy interest rate provides a "safety margin" with the 10-year government bond yield and the 7-day reverse repo rate spread rising to 38 basis points, close to the year’s high [8][9] - The yield curve shows a steepening characteristic in the short term, while remaining relatively flat in the long term, with most spreads above the 70th percentile for the year [12][13] - The downward movement of bond yields aligns with other interest rates, with a central tendency of around 70 basis points for various rates since 2024 [14] Cross-Asset Pricing Assessment - The bond-stock pricing ratio is reverting towards the 3-year average, indicating a recovery in bond allocation value [21] - The current 10-year government bond yield is at the 13th percentile, while commodity prices are mostly between the 0-20th percentiles, suggesting a close pricing match [23] - Compared to high-stickiness asset prices, bonds have fallen out of a certain safety margin, as real estate and durable goods prices are near their lowest points since 2021 [23] - The bond-loan pricing ratio has shown some recovery, with the 5-year government bond yield returning to a central channel level [24] - The comparison with rental yields has slightly improved, with the 30-year government bond yield recovering to a positive spread over urban residential rental yields [31] Overall Conclusion - The bond pricing has shown a degree of recovery, particularly in the year-to-date perspective, with several pricing indicators returning to their yearly highs. However, market sentiment remains weak, and technical signals indicate a bearish trend, suggesting that buying opportunities may require patience until market sentiment fully releases [33]

Group 1 - The simulated portfolio continues to show negative returns, with the medium and short-term credit style portfolio experiencing smaller drawdowns compared to the corresponding interest rate style portfolio, while the long-term portfolio has seen significant declines [2][14] - In the interest rate style portfolio, the weekly returns for the deposit sinking and deposit bullet strategies were both -0.25%, while in the credit style portfolio, these strategies had smaller drawdowns with returns of -0.14% each [2][14] - The credit style deposit-heavy portfolio's weekly average return slightly rebounded to -0.14%, outperforming the corresponding interest rate style portfolio by 10.7 basis points, marking the strongest defensive strategy since late July [2][17] Group 2 - The credit strategy has created a certain yield space, with the secondary bond duration strategy's yield distance from the year's low exceeding 20 basis points [3][26] - The main strategy combinations have seen yields stop falling and start to rise, with the secondary bond duration strategy's weekly yield increasing by nearly 0.16 basis points, bringing the annualized yield to 2.02%, which is 22.3 basis points wider from the year's low [3][26] - The weekly yield contribution from the credit style portfolio remains in the range of -25% to -5%, with capital gains continuing to drag down returns [3][26] Group 3 - In the past four weeks, the medium and short-term perpetual bond heavy strategies have shown certain defensive attributes, with cumulative excess returns for the city investment short-term sinking, commercial bank bullet, and perpetual bond sinking strategies reaching 13.3 basis points, 7.2 basis points, and 6.6 basis points respectively [4][32] - The city investment heavy strategies have recently underperformed compared to the secondary perpetual heavy strategies, with the cumulative returns for the city investment duration and barbell strategies deviating from the benchmark by -10 basis points and -30 basis points respectively [4][32] - The short-end strategies have outperformed the benchmark, while the city investment sinking strategy's excess returns have fallen into negative territory [4][35]

Investment Rating - The report recommends investing in SF Holding, Hainan Airlines, and Southern Airlines due to their strong performance and market positioning [2][4]. Core Views - The express delivery sector is experiencing significant growth, with SF Express leading the way with a 34% increase in business volume in July. The overall express delivery market is expected to see price increases due to rising costs in grain-producing areas and the upcoming peak season [2]. - The logistics sector is focusing on smart logistics, with Hai Chen Co. launching AI and robotics research initiatives to enhance operational efficiency [3]. - The aviation sector shows a positive trend, with domestic flights increasing by 3.07% year-on-year. Airlines are expected to benefit from supply-demand optimization, leading to potential fare increases and profit elasticity [4]. - The shipping sector is witnessing a recovery in oil transportation indices, with expectations of increased demand due to OPEC+ production adjustments and sanctions on Iran and India [5]. - The road and rail sectors are showing stable growth, with highway truck traffic increasing by 3.06% week-on-week, indicating a robust logistics environment [6][78]. Summary by Sections Express Delivery - In July, SF Express achieved a business volume growth of 34%, leading the industry. The total express delivery volume for the week of August 11-17 was approximately 3.523 billion pieces, with a year-on-year increase of 11.81% [2]. - The market shares for major players in July 2025 are as follows: SF Express (8.4%), Yunda (13.2%), YTO (15.8%), and Shentong (13.3%) [2]. Logistics - The chemical product price index is at 4024 points, down 10.3% year-on-year. The domestic sea freight price for liquid chemicals is 158 RMB/ton, down 8.4% year-on-year [3]. - Hai Chen Co. is focusing on AI and robotics to enhance logistics efficiency, indicating a shift towards smart logistics solutions [3]. Aviation - The average daily flight operations increased to 17,321 flights, a year-on-year increase of 4.18%. Domestic flights saw a 3.07% increase, while international flights increased by 11.87% compared to 2019 [4]. - The Brent crude oil price is at $67.73/barrel, reflecting a 2.85% increase week-on-week, which may impact airline operational costs [4][65]. Shipping - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1174.87 points, down 1.5% week-on-week and down 40.5% year-on-year. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is at 1415.36 points, down 3.1% week-on-week and down 52.2% year-on-year [5][21]. - The oil transportation index (BDTI) is at 1019 points, reflecting a 0.5% increase week-on-week and a 9.2% increase year-on-year [5][34]. Road and Rail - The national railway passenger volume in July was 455 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%. The railway freight volume was 452 million tons, up 4.5% year-on-year [78]. - The national highway freight traffic for the week of August 11-17 was 54.93 million vehicles, a week-on-week increase of 3.06% and a year-on-year increase of 4.65% [6][82].