Group 1 - The simulated portfolio continues to show negative returns, with the medium and short-term credit style portfolio experiencing smaller drawdowns compared to the corresponding interest rate style portfolio, while the long-term portfolio has seen significant declines [2][14] - In the interest rate style portfolio, the weekly returns for the deposit sinking and deposit bullet strategies were both -0.25%, while in the credit style portfolio, these strategies had smaller drawdowns with returns of -0.14% each [2][14] - The credit style deposit-heavy portfolio's weekly average return slightly rebounded to -0.14%, outperforming the corresponding interest rate style portfolio by 10.7 basis points, marking the strongest defensive strategy since late July [2][17] Group 2 - The credit strategy has created a certain yield space, with the secondary bond duration strategy's yield distance from the year's low exceeding 20 basis points [3][26] - The main strategy combinations have seen yields stop falling and start to rise, with the secondary bond duration strategy's weekly yield increasing by nearly 0.16 basis points, bringing the annualized yield to 2.02%, which is 22.3 basis points wider from the year's low [3][26] - The weekly yield contribution from the credit style portfolio remains in the range of -25% to -5%, with capital gains continuing to drag down returns [3][26] Group 3 - In the past four weeks, the medium and short-term perpetual bond heavy strategies have shown certain defensive attributes, with cumulative excess returns for the city investment short-term sinking, commercial bank bullet, and perpetual bond sinking strategies reaching 13.3 basis points, 7.2 basis points, and 6.6 basis points respectively [4][32] - The city investment heavy strategies have recently underperformed compared to the secondary perpetual heavy strategies, with the cumulative returns for the city investment duration and barbell strategies deviating from the benchmark by -10 basis points and -30 basis points respectively [4][32] - The short-end strategies have outperformed the benchmark, while the city investment sinking strategy's excess returns have fallen into negative territory [4][35]

Investment Rating - The report recommends investing in SF Holding, Hainan Airlines, and Southern Airlines due to their strong performance and market positioning [2][4]. Core Views - The express delivery sector is experiencing significant growth, with SF Express leading the way with a 34% increase in business volume in July. The overall express delivery market is expected to see price increases due to rising costs in grain-producing areas and the upcoming peak season [2]. - The logistics sector is focusing on smart logistics, with Hai Chen Co. launching AI and robotics research initiatives to enhance operational efficiency [3]. - The aviation sector shows a positive trend, with domestic flights increasing by 3.07% year-on-year. Airlines are expected to benefit from supply-demand optimization, leading to potential fare increases and profit elasticity [4]. - The shipping sector is witnessing a recovery in oil transportation indices, with expectations of increased demand due to OPEC+ production adjustments and sanctions on Iran and India [5]. - The road and rail sectors are showing stable growth, with highway truck traffic increasing by 3.06% week-on-week, indicating a robust logistics environment [6][78]. Summary by Sections Express Delivery - In July, SF Express achieved a business volume growth of 34%, leading the industry. The total express delivery volume for the week of August 11-17 was approximately 3.523 billion pieces, with a year-on-year increase of 11.81% [2]. - The market shares for major players in July 2025 are as follows: SF Express (8.4%), Yunda (13.2%), YTO (15.8%), and Shentong (13.3%) [2]. Logistics - The chemical product price index is at 4024 points, down 10.3% year-on-year. The domestic sea freight price for liquid chemicals is 158 RMB/ton, down 8.4% year-on-year [3]. - Hai Chen Co. is focusing on AI and robotics to enhance logistics efficiency, indicating a shift towards smart logistics solutions [3]. Aviation - The average daily flight operations increased to 17,321 flights, a year-on-year increase of 4.18%. Domestic flights saw a 3.07% increase, while international flights increased by 11.87% compared to 2019 [4]. - The Brent crude oil price is at $67.73/barrel, reflecting a 2.85% increase week-on-week, which may impact airline operational costs [4][65]. Shipping - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1174.87 points, down 1.5% week-on-week and down 40.5% year-on-year. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is at 1415.36 points, down 3.1% week-on-week and down 52.2% year-on-year [5][21]. - The oil transportation index (BDTI) is at 1019 points, reflecting a 0.5% increase week-on-week and a 9.2% increase year-on-year [5][34]. Road and Rail - The national railway passenger volume in July was 455 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%. The railway freight volume was 452 million tons, up 4.5% year-on-year [78]. - The national highway freight traffic for the week of August 11-17 was 54.93 million vehicles, a week-on-week increase of 3.06% and a year-on-year increase of 4.65% [6][82].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer continued to decline by 4 percentage points to 46%, with most indicators falling to varying degrees, except for the 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate and the fund - rural commercial bank buying volume percentile [2][14]. - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 25%, with 5 indicators in the over - heated range, 5 in the neutral range, and 10 in the cold range [3][18]. - Only the average percentile of trading heat increased slightly by 2 percentage points, while the average percentiles of institutional behavior, spread, and comparison ratio decreased [4][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Micro - trading Thermometer Reading - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer continued to decline by 4 percentage points to 46%. Most indicators fell, while the 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate and the fund - rural commercial bank buying volume percentile increased. High - congestion indicators include the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate and the long - term Treasury bond trading volume ratio [2][14]. 3.2. Proportion of Indicators in the Over - heated Range - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 25%. Among 20 micro - indicators, 5 were in the over - heated range, 5 in the neutral range, and 10 in the cold range. The 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate moved from the cold to the neutral range, while the fund duration and policy spread moved from the neutral to the cold range, and the allocation disk strength moved from the over - heated to the cold range [3][18]. 3.2.1. 1/10Y Treasury Bond Turnover Rate - In the trading heat indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 50%, the proportion in the neutral range rose to 33%, and the proportion in the cold range fell to 17%. The 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate percentile increased by 37 percentage points to 54% and moved from the cold to the neutral range, while other indicators such as the TL/T long - short ratio, the whole - market turnover rate, and the institutional leverage percentile declined [5][21]. 3.2.2. Fund Duration - In the institutional behavior indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 25%, the proportion in the neutral range decreased to 25%, and the proportion in the cold range increased to 50%. Except for the 10 - percentage - point increase in the fund - rural commercial bank buying volume percentile, other indicators fell. The fund duration percentile decreased by 31 percentage points to 37% and moved from the neutral to the cold range, and the allocation disk strength percentile decreased by 33 percentage points to 39% and moved from the over - heated to the cold range [6][24]. 3.2.3. Policy Spread - The 3 - year Treasury bond yield increased significantly, and the policy spread widened from 1bp to 11bp, with the percentile decreasing by 34 percentage points to 13% and moving from the neutral to the cold range. The credit spread narrowed slightly by 2bp to 51bp, the Agricultural Development - China Development spread remained at 4bp, and the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread widened by 3bp to 5bp. The average spread of the three remained at 20bp, and its percentile increased slightly by 1 percentage point to 46%, still in the neutral range [7][31]. 3.2.4. Commodity Comparison Ratio Percentile - The proportion of comparison ratio indicators in the cold range remained at 100%. The stock - bond and commodity comparison ratio percentiles decreased by 4 and 1 percentage points to 23% and 0% respectively, while the real - estate comparison ratio percentile remained basically the same as the previous period [8][34].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The AI application landscape is evolving, with significant activity in overseas markets, particularly for models like Claude and Gemini, while domestic applications are stabilizing [3][11] - Samsung's HBM4 is expected to enter mass production by November or December, indicating competitive advancements in the high-end HBM market against SK Hynix [13][14] - NVIDIA's upcoming FY26Q2 earnings report is anticipated to show a revenue of $45.5 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 51.5%, with a focus on the manufacturing yield of their Blackwell architecture [15][18] - Google's Pixel 10 series, featuring the new Tensor G5 chip and Gemini Nano model, represents a significant upgrade aimed at enhancing user experience and AI capabilities [21][22] Summary by Sections AI Applications - The DeepSeek V3.1 model was released, introducing a mixed reasoning architecture that enhances task performance and efficiency, with a focus on compatibility with next-generation domestic chips [8][12] - The active user engagement in AI applications shows a notable increase for Claude, while Gemini and ChatGPT remain stable [11] HBM Market - Samsung's HBM4 samples have passed initial testing and are set for mass production, which could shift market dynamics as they adopt aggressive pricing strategies against SK Hynix [13][14] - Micron is also advancing in the HBM4 space, having delivered samples to key clients, indicating strong market demand [14] NVIDIA Financial Outlook - NVIDIA's revenue expectations for FY26Q2 are set at $45.5 billion, with a focus on the performance of their Blackwell architecture and potential impacts on gross margins due to manufacturing complexities [15][18] Google Pixel 10 Launch - The launch of Google's Pixel 10 series highlights advancements in AI integration, with the Tensor G5 chip enabling enhanced performance and new AI features aimed at improving user experience [21][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the virtual assets sector, particularly following the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, which has led to a rebound in virtual assets [1][3]. Core Insights - The enthusiasm for the revaluation of Chinese assets continues, with expectations of increased liquidity and valuation uplift for Chinese stocks, particularly in the context of upcoming earnings reports [3][16]. - The report highlights a strong performance in the gaming sector, projecting the Chinese gaming market to reach 29.1 billion yuan by July 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 8.14% and a year-on-year growth of 4.62% [2][19]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing trends in blockchain and virtual assets, suggesting that institutions in Greater China will actively seek related investments in Hong Kong stocks [3][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Education Sector - The education index increased by 1.83%, underperforming compared to major indices like the CSI 300 and the SSE 50 [12]. - Key players such as New Oriental and TAL Education saw declines of 1.86% and 4.98%, respectively, indicating competitive pressures in the K12 education sector [12][19]. 2. Luxury Goods - The S&P Global Luxury Goods Index rose by 3.82%, with notable performances from high-end brands like Hermes and Richemont [19]. - The report notes a significant decline in new store openings in the luxury sector, particularly in non-first-tier cities, which saw a 48% drop [26]. 3. Coffee and Tea Drinks - The coffee sector remains robust, with a notable increase in consumer demand, while the tea drink segment faces increased competition [5][25]. - The report highlights the performance of various coffee brands, with Luckin Coffee opening new stores and expanding its market presence [30]. 4. E-commerce - The Hang Seng Internet Technology Index showed a slight increase of 0.29%, with Pinduoduo and Dingdong Maicai leading in stock performance [31]. - Alibaba has restructured its business into four main divisions, aiming to enhance operational efficiency [35]. 5. Streaming Platforms - The report indicates a slight decline in the media index, with a focus on improving content supply for long-video platforms [32][40]. - The performance of major streaming services like iQIYI and Tencent Music varied, with iQIYI reporting a revenue decline of 11% [41]. 6. Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization reached $412.39 billion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices showing slight fluctuations [42]. - The report suggests a positive trend for virtual assets, with institutions increasingly entering the market [3][42]. 7. Real Estate Transactions - Recent data shows a continued decline in second-hand housing transactions in major cities, indicating ongoing pressure in the real estate market [36]. 8. Automotive Services - The report notes a rise in losses among automotive dealers, with a 52.6% loss ratio reported for the first half of the year [5]. 9. Media and Entertainment - The report highlights the implementation of new policies aimed at enriching content supply for television platforms, which may improve the industry's outlook [40]. 10. Overall Market Trends - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring market sentiment and the performance of key sectors, particularly in light of macroeconomic conditions and regulatory changes [3][5].

业绩简评 2025 年 8 月 23 日，公司披露 2025 年度中期业绩：公司 2025 年 上半年实现营收 24.3 亿元，同比下滑 14.4%，毛利润同比下滑 16.6%，主要系金融机构 IT 整体预算收紧导致客户需求减少、市 场竞争加剧、以及公司战略收缩部分非核心业务。公司 2025 年上 半年实现扣非后归母净利润 1.9 亿元，同比增长 41.9%。现金流 方面，公司销售商品、提供劳务收到的现金同比下滑 5.5%，表现 好于营收降幅；整体经营活动现金净流出较上年同期缩窄 23.4%， 主要系支付给职工的现金较上年同期减少。 2025 年第二季度，公司营业收入为 14.0 亿元，同比下滑 15.0%， 毛利润同比下滑 15.0%；扣非后归母净利润为 1.8 亿元，同比增 长 59.8%。 经营分析 分业务而言，上半年表现最好的业务为企金、保险核心与基础设施 IT 产品线，表观营收同比增长 4.9%，毛利率较上年同期增长 17.4pct，因而毛利润同比增长 77.8%。上半年资管科技、风险与 平台科技服务业绩压力相对较大，毛利润分别同比下滑 34.8%、 下滑 49.1%。 净利润方面，公司 2025 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the wind power sector, particularly for the complete machine segment, due to strong performance and recovery in profitability [6][12][13]. Core Insights - The wind power sector is experiencing a significant recovery, with Goldwind Technology reporting a strong half-year performance, achieving a revenue of 28.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.3% [6][7]. - The lithium battery sector is seeing a price increase in lithium hexafluorophosphate, with the market average price reaching 54,000 yuan per ton, up 1.89% from the previous week [24]. - The photovoltaic and energy storage sectors are optimistic, with ongoing administrative support and a significant increase in exports despite seasonal downturns [19][22]. Wind Power Sector Summary - Goldwind Technology's manufacturing profitability has improved significantly, achieving a positive profit for the first time since 2022, driven by a 71.2% year-on-year increase in sales revenue for wind turbines and components [7][8]. - The company has accelerated its overseas business development, with overseas sales reaching approximately 8.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75.3% [8]. - The bidding scale for wind turbines from state-owned enterprises has rebounded significantly, with a total of about 8.3 GW since August, indicating a recovery in demand [9][12]. Lithium Battery Sector Summary - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate continues to rise, supported by raw material costs and limited market supply, with companies generally refusing to transact at lower prices [24]. - The solid-state battery industry is progressing, with significant developments in production capabilities and partnerships to enhance commercialization [24][25]. Photovoltaic & Energy Storage Sector Summary - A multi-department meeting on the photovoltaic industry has been held to enhance competition order and promote sustainable development [19][20]. - Despite a seasonal decline in July, photovoltaic exports remain strong, with a total of 31.7 GW exported, a year-on-year increase of 10% [22]. - The report recommends companies like Sungrow Power and Canadian Solar for continued investment due to their strong market positions [19][22]. AIDC Sector Summary - The liquid cooling sector is experiencing consolidation, with a long-term positive outlook for domestic companies in the global market [14][18]. - The establishment of the Intel UQD alliance indicates growing recognition of domestic liquid cooling component manufacturers [16][18]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Sector Summary - The SOFC technology is gaining traction due to power shortages and tight gas turbine supplies in the U.S., with significant growth opportunities anticipated [27][28].

行业点评 本周 A 股地产、港股物业均上涨，港股地产下跌。本周（8.16-8.22）本周申万 A 股房地产板块涨跌幅为+0.5%， 在各板块中位列第 31；恒生港股房地产板块涨跌幅为-0.6%，在各板块中位列第 9。本周恒生物业服务及管理指数涨 跌幅为+1.1%，恒生中国企业指数涨跌幅为+0.5%，沪深 300 指数涨跌幅为+4.2%；物业指数对恒生中国企业指数和沪 深 300 的相对收益分别为+0.7%和-3.1%。 土地市场溢价率有所回落。本周（8.16-8.22）全国 300 城宅地成交建面 553 万㎡，单周环比-14%，单周同比-52%， 平均溢价率 5%。2025 年初至今，全国 300 城累计宅地成交建面 23666 万㎡，累计同比-5.4%；年初至今，绿城中国、 中海地产、保利发展、建发房产、滨江集团的权益拿地金额位居行业前五。 本周(8.16-8.22)47 个城市商品房销售 285 万方，成交量环比+8%，同比-11%，整体维持季节性低位；7 月新房售 价环比-0.3%，环比跌幅持平，同比-3.4%，同比降幅持续收窄；结合量价，景气度下行趋缓。本周分能级来看：一线 城市周环比+5%，周同比 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the AI chip sector, particularly in the context of domestic developments and overseas demand for servers and optical modules [4]. Core Insights - Domestic AI development is driving growth in sectors such as servers and IDC, while overseas AI advancements are boosting demand for servers and optical modules [4]. - The launch of DeepSeek-V3.1 is expected to facilitate the large-scale deployment of domestic AI chips, enhancing the competitive landscape [1][2]. - The liquid cooling market is anticipated to expand significantly, with companies like Invec benefiting from strong demand in AI data centers [1][12]. Summary by Sections Communication Sector - Telecom business revenue reached 905.5 billion yuan in the first half of the year, showing a year-on-year growth of 1% [3][14]. - The number of fixed broadband users reached 684 million, with gigabit users accounting for 33% [20]. Server Sector - The server index increased by 8.30% this week and 17.28% this month, with Industrial Fulian reporting improved efficiency and yield for its GB200 and GB300 models [2][6]. - GB300 is expected to become a significant profit driver for the company's AI server business next year [6]. Optical Module Sector - The optical module index rose by 4.34% this week and 14.59% this month, driven by Google's adoption of OCS technology [2][9]. - Coherent and Lumentum reported their first revenue from OCS orders, indicating market expansion [9]. IDC Sector - The IDC index increased by 6.78% this week and 14.41% this month, with DeepSeek-V3.1's release expected to alleviate the shortage of domestic AI inference cards [2][12]. Liquid Cooling Sector - Invec reported a revenue of 2.573 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 50.3%, driven by strong demand for liquid cooling solutions [12][52]. - The establishment of the UQD alliance aims to enhance the reliability and interchangeability of liquid cooling connectors, reducing operational complexity [12].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook on the machinery equipment sector, particularly focusing on companies like LiuGong, SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, and Henglida Hydraulic [10][22]. Core Insights - The machinery equipment index increased by 2.75% in the last week, ranking 17th among 31 primary industry categories, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 4.18% [12]. - From January to July 2025, China's engineering machinery exports reached USD 33.49 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, indicating a strong recovery in overseas markets [22]. - China Railway Corporation's announcement of a significant increase in high-speed train procurement suggests a robust demand for railway equipment, with a total of 278 sets procured in 2025, exceeding the total for 2024 [15][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Stock Portfolio - Recommended stocks include LiuGong, SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, Henglida Hydraulic, and China CRRC [10]. 2. Market Review - The SW Machinery Equipment Index has risen by 29.11% year-to-date, ranking 5th among 31 primary industry categories [14]. 3. Core Insights Update - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing accelerated growth, with excavator sales in July 2025 reaching 17,138 units, a year-on-year increase of 25.2% [33]. - The railway equipment sector shows steady growth, supported by a 5.6% year-on-year increase in fixed asset investment [43]. 4. Key Data Tracking 4.1 General Machinery - The general machinery sector remains under pressure, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.3% in July, indicating contraction [24]. 4.2 Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is on an upward trend, with domestic excavator sales showing significant growth [33]. 4.3 Railway Equipment - The railway equipment sector is experiencing stable growth, with consistent investment in fixed assets [43]. 4.4 Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding sector is seeing a slowdown in price declines, with the global new ship price index stabilizing [47]. 4.5 Oil Service Equipment - The oil service equipment sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with a slight recovery in global rig counts [49]. 4.6 Industrial Gases - The industrial gases sector is expected to perform well in Q3 due to favorable pricing conditions [55]. 4.7 Gas Turbines - The gas turbine sector is showing robust growth, with significant increases in new orders [57].