Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home furnishing sector, new tobacco products, and packaging industries, while indicating a cautious stance on the two-wheeler market due to recent trends [4][10][11][15]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is expected to stabilize and recover due to continued government subsidies, with a total of 138 billion yuan allocated for the second half of 2025 [4][9]. - The new tobacco sector shows promising growth potential, particularly with the launch of BAT's Glo hilo in Japan, which is anticipated to perform well [10]. - The paper and packaging industry is facing weak price trends, but cultural paper prices may recover due to upcoming publishing orders [11]. - The light consumer goods and pet sectors are experiencing varied performance, with a focus on innovative products and market expansion [12]. - The two-wheeler market is expected to see a slowdown in growth, but there are opportunities for market share gains among leading brands [15]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - The home furnishing sector is supported by government subsidies, with 138 billion yuan allocated for the second half of 2025, which is expected to stimulate demand [4][9]. - Recent sales data shows a decline in new and second-hand home transactions, indicating a need for stabilization in the market [4][9]. - Key companies recommended include Sophia, Gujia Home, and Mousse [4][9]. New Tobacco Sector - The HNB product Glo hilo is set to launch in Japan, with expectations for strong market performance [10]. - The vaping market is expanding, with regulatory actions in the US aimed at curbing illegal products, which may benefit compliant companies [10]. Paper and Packaging Sector - Prices for wood pulp remain weak, but cultural paper prices may see recovery due to seasonal demand from publishing [11]. - Recommendations include companies with strong market positions and stable dividends in the packaging sector [11]. Light Consumer Goods and Pet Sector - The sector is focusing on offline growth and new product cycles, with a notable emphasis on AI technology in product development [12]. - Companies like Guibao Pet and Miniso are highlighted for their growth potential [12]. Two-Wheeler Sector - The two-wheeler market is experiencing a slowdown, but leading companies are expected to maintain good growth rates in their mid-year reports [15]. - Recommendations include Yadi Holdings and Aima Technology, focusing on product innovation and market expansion [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" rose slightly by 1 percentage point to 53% compared with the previous period. Most indicator quantiles increased significantly, while the relative turnover quantile dropped significantly, and the fund duration and stock - bond ratio quantiles declined slightly [14]. - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range among the 20 micro - indicators increased to 40%, those in the neutral range decreased to 15%, and those in the cold range increased to 45%. The TL/T long - short ratio and long - term Treasury bond trading volume proportion moved from the neutral to the over - heated range, while the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover and 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover moved from the over - heated and neutral ranges to the cold range respectively [3][19]. - By category, the average quantile of trading heat decreased by 6 percentage points, the average quantile of institutional behavior increased by 3 percentage points, the average quantile of spreads increased by 4 percentage points, and the average quantile of price ratios increased by 7 percentage points [4][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Indicator Changes - The micro - trading thermometer reading continued to rise by 1 percentage point to 53% [11][14][19]. - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range rose to 40% [11][19][21]. 3.2 Trading Heat Indicators - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range among trading heat indicators increased to 67%, those in the neutral range decreased to 0%, and those in the cold range increased to 33% [5][22]. - The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover quantile dropped by 59 percentage points to 37% and moved from the over - heated to the cold range; the 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover dropped by 49 percentage points and moved from the neutral to the cold range. The TL/T long - short ratio and long - term Treasury bond trading volume proportion quantiles rose by 35 and 27 percentage points respectively and moved from the neutral to the over - heated range [5][22][25]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior Indicators - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated, neutral, and cold ranges remained at 50%, 13%, and 38% respectively. The quantile of the fund duration dropped slightly by 6 percentage points, while most other indicator quantiles rose [6][23]. - The bond fund profit - taking pressure and listed company wealth management purchase volume quantiles rose by 9 and 15 percentage points respectively, driving the average quantile of institutional behavior up by 3 percentage points [4][19]. 3.4 Spread Indicators - The policy spread narrowed by 1bp to - 2bp, and its quantile rose by 5 percentage points to 63%, remaining in the neutral range. The credit spread and agricultural development - state - owned development spread narrowed by 3bp and 2bp respectively, while the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread widened slightly by 1bp. The average spread narrowed by 1bp to 17bp, and its quantile rose by 5 percentage points to 45%, also in the neutral range [7][29][32]. - The market spread and policy spread quantiles rose by 4 and 5 percentage points respectively, driving the average spread quantile up by 4 percentage points [4][19]. 3.5 Price Ratio Indicators - The proportion of price ratio indicators in the cold range remained at 100%. Except for a 4 - percentage - point drop in the stock - bond ratio quantile, the commodity price ratio and real estate price ratio quantiles rose by 27 and 4 percentage points respectively, and the consumer goods price ratio quantile remained unchanged [8][32]. - The average quantile of price ratios increased by 7 percentage points [4][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the wholesale and retail trade industry, expecting significant growth in the coming months [1]. Core Insights - Offline, Yonghui Supermarket is set to launch its first "717 Good Food Festival" from July 9 to July 20, 2025, aiming to enhance product exposure and transition from a "shelf logic" to a "lifestyle logic" approach [10][11]. - Online, Meituan has achieved a record of over 120 million daily orders, indicating intense competition in the instant retail sector [14][28]. Industry Data Tracking - GMV performance shows a year-on-year decline of 9.63% for Tmall and JD.com in the second week of June [16]. - The retail sector is experiencing slight pressure, with supermarkets and department stores underperforming, while e-commerce is stabilizing at the bottom [3]. Market Review - During the week of June 30 to July 4, 2025, major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.40% and 1.25%, respectively, while the retail sector saw a slight decline of 0.16% [20][24]. Investment Recommendations - Yonghui Supermarket is recommended for its transformative business model towards a selective retail approach, which is expected to drive long-term growth in the post-consumption era [26]. - Meituan is viewed positively for its established barriers in user perception, rider management, and merchant relationships, despite the competitive landscape [28].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a growth-oriented investment style, suggesting a focus on companies with marginal changes and new growth curves [2][3]. Core Views - The chemical market experienced an upward trend this week, with the Shenwan Chemical Index rising by 0.8%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.74% [2][11]. - Key events impacting the chemical industry include the resolution of the ethane export issue between the US and China, the lifting of force majeure on BASF's animal nutrition product, and the successful production of new materials in China [2][3][4]. - The report highlights the high valuation levels in the chemical sector, with a historical PB percentile of 20% and a PE percentile of 71% [2]. Summary by Sections Market Review - Brent crude futures settled at an average price of $68.19 per barrel, down 0.25% week-on-week, while WTI futures increased by 0.9% to $66.3 per barrel [11]. - The basic chemical sector underperformed the index, with a decline of 0.74%, while the petrochemical sector fell by 1.03% [11]. Major Chemical Products Price Changes - The report provides detailed price changes for various chemical products, indicating fluctuations in market prices and demand dynamics [12][29]. Key Events - The US Department of Commerce's notification ended the ethane export turmoil, benefiting companies like Wanhua Chemical and Satellite Chemical [3]. - BASF's lifting of force majeure on Lutavit® A 1000 NXT is a significant development for the animal nutrition business [4]. - The successful production of new materials, such as AkzoNobel's 5000 tons of COC and Shanghai Jieda's 120,000 tons/year hexamethylenediamine, marks a positive trend in domestic new materials [2][3]. - SABIC's permanent shutdown of its olefins cracker in the UK, with an annual capacity of 865,000 tons of ethylene and 415,000 tons of propylene, indicates a continued exit of overseas capacity [4]. Industry Insights - The report emphasizes a growth-oriented investment approach, focusing on companies showing marginal changes and potential new growth trajectories [2][25]. - The chemical sector is currently experiencing high valuation levels, with a historical PB percentile of 20% and a PE percentile of 71% [2][12].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming and livestock, indicating potential for good profitability in leading companies [3][20]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has shown a weekly increase of 2.55%, but it has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [13][14]. - The report highlights that the pig farming industry is experiencing a rebound in prices, with the average price of live pigs at 15.35 CNY/kg, up 4.28% week-on-week, indicating a potential for improved profitability in the near term [3][20]. - The poultry sector is facing pressure due to weak demand, but there is an expectation for recovery as consumer demand improves [4][36]. - The livestock sector is seeing a stabilization in beef prices, with live cattle prices at 26.55 CNY/kg, reflecting a slight increase, while dairy prices are expected to stabilize in the second half of 2025 [5][42]. - The planting industry is showing signs of stabilization, with support for wheat prices due to minimum purchase price policies, and potential improvements if there are significant reductions in crop yields [6][47]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2729.26 points, with a weekly increase of 2.55%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.40% [13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is 15.35 CNY/kg, with a weekly increase of 4.28%. The average weight of pigs at slaughter is 128.64 kg, showing a slight increase [3][20][21]. - Leading pig farming companies are expected to achieve good profitability, with profits exceeding 200 CNY per pig [22]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather chickens is 6.75 CNY/kg, reflecting a decrease of 3.71% week-on-week. The overall price pressure is attributed to weak demand [4][36]. 2.3 Livestock - Live cattle prices are at 26.55 CNY/kg, with a slight increase, while dairy prices are stabilizing around 3.04 CNY/kg [5][42]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices are at 2367.14 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 0.61% week-on-week. The planting sector is stabilizing, with potential improvements if crop yields decrease significantly [6][47]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices are stabilizing, with pig feed at 3.35 CNY/kg. Aquaculture prices are showing upward trends, particularly for certain fish species [62][63].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach towards the real estate sector, recommending selective investments in companies with strong fundamentals and potential policy benefits [7]. Core Insights - The A-share real estate sector saw a slight increase of +0.3% while the Hong Kong real estate sector rose by +1.7% during the week of June 28 to July 4, 2025 [3][18]. - The land market's premium rate has decreased, with a total of 762,000 square meters of residential land sold across 300 cities, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 35% and a year-on-year decline of 15% [3][29]. - The first half of 2025 showed a significant improvement in land market performance, with a total supply of 21,930 million square meters and a total transaction of 17,390 million square meters, indicating a narrowing decline compared to previous years [5][14]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report highlights that the sales volume of commercial housing in 47 cities reached 514,000 square meters, with a week-on-week decrease of 3% and a year-on-year decrease of 8% [4][34]. - The average new home price in May showed a slight decrease of 0.2% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 4.1%, indicating a gradual stabilization in the market [4]. Land Market - The average transaction price for residential land in the first half of 2025 across 300 cities was 4,953 yuan per square meter, with significant year-on-year increases across different city tiers [5][14]. - The top five companies in terms of land acquisition amount included Poly Developments, Greentown China, China Overseas Development, Jianfa Real Estate, and Binjiang Group, with acquisition amounts of 41.4 billion, 40.1 billion, 39.3 billion, 34.1 billion, and 31.3 billion yuan respectively [29][33]. Sales Performance - The total sales amount for the top 100 real estate companies in the first half of 2025 was 1,782 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.4% [6][16]. - The report notes a divergence where the decline in sales is greater than the decline in investment, indicating a challenging sales environment for real estate companies [6][16]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in real estate stocks during market dips, particularly focusing on developers with strong operations in core first and second-tier cities [7]. - Suggested companies include Jianfa International Group, China Overseas Development, and Binjiang Group for developers, and Beike for real estate intermediaries [7].

铜：本周 LME 铜价-0.27%到 9852.00 美元/吨，沪铜-0.24%到 7.97 万元/吨。供应端，据 SMM，本周进口铜精矿加工费 周度指数涨至-44.25 美元/吨。截至本周四，全国主流地区铜库存较周一增加 0.57 万吨至 13.18 万吨，较上周四增加 0.17 万吨。消费端，据 SMM，本周国内主要精铜杆企业周度开工率超预期降至 63.74%，环比下滑 10.27 个百分点，较 预期值低 9.74 个百分点，同比转负下滑 4.75 个百分点；本周铜线揽企业开工率降至 67.81%，环比下降 2.37 个百分 比，同比降 13.55 个百分比；本周漆包线行业开机率降至 79.53%，环比降 2.07%，超预期下滑。高铜价抑制下游订单， 叠加传统淡季需求疲软，市场表现低迷。 铝：本周 LME 铝价+0.01 %到 2597.50 美元/吨，沪铝+0.27%到 2.06 万元/吨。供应端，据 SMM，本周四国内主流消费 地电解铝锭库存 47.4 万吨，较本周一增加 0.6 万吨，环比上周四增加 1.1 万吨;国内主流消费地再生铝合金锭社会库 存 23232 吨，较上周四增加 2646 吨。成本 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on leading domestic generative AI model companies such as iFlytek, and highlights potential in AI hardware applications with recommendations for companies like Yingzi Network, Hongsoft Technology, and Hesai [2] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the AI industry is currently in a relatively chaotic fundamental period, with mixed macroeconomic signals and varying investor expectations. It notes that while user willingness to adopt AI technologies is increasing, payment capabilities remain weak, and products require further development [11][12] - The report identifies high-growth sectors for 2025, including AI computing power and lidar, while sectors like industrial software and medical IT are facing pressure [11][12] Summary by Sections Industry Perspective - The report discusses the launch of Alibaba's multimodal model Qwen-VLo, which enhances semantic understanding and supports multiple languages, showcasing advancements in AI capabilities [11] - Tesla's delivery of the first Model Y autonomous vehicle is highlighted, marking a significant milestone in autonomous delivery technology [11] Subsector Insights - High-growth sectors include AI computing power and lidar, while sectors like software outsourcing, financial IT, and quantum computing are expected to show steady growth. Education IT and cybersecurity are at an inflection point, while industrial software and medical IT are under pressure [10][12] Market Review - From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the computer industry index (Shenwan) fell by 1.28%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.82 percentage points, indicating a challenging market environment for the sector [14] Upcoming Events - Key upcoming events include the 2025 International Drone Application and Control Conference and the second AI Glasses Industry Innovation Application Summit, which may present investment opportunities in related sectors [25][26]

Group 1: Securities Sector - The report indicates a significant increase in IPO approvals, with 149 companies approved in June alone, accounting for 86% of the total for the year, a year-on-year increase of 452% [2] - Investment recommendations focus on four main lines: (1) Hong Kong Stock Exchange benefiting from deepening connectivity and the return of Chinese concept stocks; (2) multi-financial companies with strong performance and high dividends; (3) brokerage firms showing clear improvement in performance with significant mismatches in high profitability and low valuation; (4) Sichuan Shuangma, which is expected to benefit from the technology sector [2] Group 2: Insurance Sector - The insurance industry reported a premium income of 3.06 trillion yuan in the first five months of 2025, a year-on-year growth of 3.77% [40] - The report highlights the introduction of a new commercial health insurance innovative drug directory, which aims to include high-value innovative drugs beyond basic insurance coverage [41] - The insurance sector has seen a capital increase of nearly 50 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with 13 companies completing or announcing capital increase plans [42]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The AI application activity has seen a general increase overseas, while domestic applications remain stable, with notable growth in Doubao [10] - CoreWeave has become the first cloud service provider to deploy Nvidia's latest Blackwell Ultra AI chips, significantly enhancing AI training and inference efficiency, leading to a 6% increase in its stock price [11] - The smartphone storage market is undergoing structural changes driven by AI penetration, with NAND average capacity expected to reach 224GB and DRAM exceeding 8GB by 2025 [12] - In May 2025, China's smartphone sales reached approximately 24.75 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.11% [17] - Desktop computer sales in May 2025 were approximately 1.25 million units, down 15.52% year-on-year, while laptop sales were about 1.79 million units, up 11.82% year-on-year [23] Summary by Sections Overseas Market Review - AI application activity continues to rise overseas, while domestic applications remain stable [7] - CoreWeave's deployment of Nvidia Blackwell Ultra chips marks a significant advancement in AI infrastructure [11] - The smartphone storage supply-demand structure is being reshaped due to AI [12] Consumer Electronics Dynamics - In May 2025, China's smartphone market saw a year-on-year increase in sales [17] - Desktop sales declined while the laptop market showed recovery [23]