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李宁(02331):2025Q1流水稳健增长,渠道库存健康
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-04-29 02:04
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning [5][3] Core Views - Li Ning's adult revenue showed steady growth in Q1 2025, with e-commerce performance being particularly strong, while overall performance met expectations [1] - The company is focusing on optimizing its children's clothing product structure and enhancing brand promotion, which is expected to drive steady growth in the children's clothing segment [2] - The company is managing inventory effectively, with an estimated inventory-to-sales ratio of around 5, indicating a healthy and controllable level [2] - For 2025, the company expects revenue to remain flat year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to decline by 17.5% [2] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 24.86 billion, 26.66 billion, and 28.81 billion respectively, with a PE ratio of 15 times for 2025 [3] - Financial indicators for 2025 include: - Revenue: 28,919 million - Net profit: 2,486 million, a decline of 17.5% year-on-year - EPS: 0.96 - ROE: 9.1% [4][11] - The company’s revenue growth rates are projected at 0.8% for 2025, 6.5% for 2026, and 5.9% for 2027 [4][11]
瑞丰银行(601528):息差降幅明显收窄,拨备进一步夯实
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-04-29 02:04
25Q1 不良率(0.97%)、关注率(1.54%)分别较上年末持平、提升 9bps, 拨备覆盖率、拨贷比分别为 326.08%、3.17%,分别较上年末提升 5.2pc、 提升 7bps。25Q1 信用成本为 1.26%,同比提升 3bps。 证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 29 年 月 日 瑞丰银行(601528.SH) 息差降幅明显收窄,拨备进一步夯实 事件:瑞丰银行披露 2025 年一季报,2025 年一季度实现营收 11.1 亿元, 同比增长 5.12%,归母净利润 4.2 亿元,同比增长 6.69%。2025Q1 末不 良率、拨备覆盖率分别为 0.97%、326.08%,较上年末分别持平、提升 5.2pc。 1、业绩表现:息差降幅同比收窄 25Q1 年营业收入、归母净利润增速分别为 5.12%、6.69%,分别较 24A 下降 10.2pc、下降 4.6pc,其中息差同比降幅收窄、业务成本节约等对业 绩形成正向贡献,具体来看: 1)利息净收入:同比增长 2.68%,较 24A 增速提升 4.3pc,25Q1 净息差 为 1.46%,较 24A 下降 4bps( ...
伟星股份(002003):2025Q1业绩表现优异,聚焦公司长期价值
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-04-29 01:52
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company demonstrated excellent performance in Q1 2025, with revenue growth of 22.3% to 980 million yuan and net profit growth of 28.8% to 100 million yuan [1] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit growth of 8.5% in 2025, with projected revenue growth of 7.7% to 5 billion yuan [3] - The company is focusing on enhancing its product quality and diversity, particularly in the apparel accessory segment, which is anticipated to expand significantly in the medium to long term [2] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's gross margin improved by 0.9 percentage points to 38.8%, while the management expense ratio decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 11.4% [1] - The company’s revenue for 2025 is projected to be 5,033 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.7% [5] - The expected net profit for 2025 is 760 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 8.5% [5] Business Expansion - The company’s zipper business showed strong sales performance, with revenue growth of 16% in 2024, while other apparel accessory businesses grew by 42% [2] - The successful operation of the Vietnam factory is expected to enhance the company's brand influence overseas and facilitate the expansion into European and Japanese markets [2] Competitive Advantage - The company is recognized for its superior smart manufacturing capabilities and commitment to customer service, which are expected to support its market share growth in the medium to long term [3] - The company is actively exploring opportunities to adapt its production capacity based on customer needs, particularly in response to tariff challenges [3]
德昌股份(605555):收入保持良好增长趋势,发布定增强化海外产能建设
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-04-29 01:52
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 5.0% to 80 million yuan [1] - The company is expanding its overseas production capacity, with plans to raise up to 1.524 billion yuan through a private placement to enhance its competitive strength [2] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 15.8%, down by 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 8.1%, down by 2.2 percentage points [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5.039 billion yuan, 6.169 billion yuan, and 7.422 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.0%, 22.4%, and 20.3% respectively [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 472 million yuan in 2025, 588 million yuan in 2026, and 721 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 15.0%, 24.5%, and 22.7% respectively [4] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 1.27 yuan in 2025, increasing to 1.94 yuan by 2027 [4]
海信家电:收入业绩增长稳健,净利率稳步提升-20250429
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-04-29 01:10
证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 28 年 月 日 海信家电(000921.SZ) 收入业绩增长稳健,净利率稳步提升 事件:公司发布 2025 年一季报。2025Q1 实现营业收入 248.38 亿 元,同比增长 5.76%;实现归母净利润 11.27 亿元,同比增长 14.89%。 净利率稳步提升。毛利率:2025Q1 公司毛利率同比-0.22pct 至 21.41% 。费率端: 2025Q1 销 售 / 管 理 / 研 发 / 财 务 费 率 为 9.55%/2.39%/3.32%/0.02% , 同 比 变 动 -0.45pct/- 0.25pct/+0.02pct/+0.33pct。财务费用变动主要系汇兑损益波动所 致。净利率:公司 2025Q1 净利率同比+0.03pct 至 6.58%。 销售商品收到的现金稳步增长。2025Q1 公司经营性现金流净额 0.65 亿元,同比-58.3%。其中销售商品收到的现金为 193.06 亿元, 同比+10.81%。 一季度空调行业产销稳步增长,出口表现优于内销。据奥维云网数 据,2025 年一季度空调生产 5597.2 万台 ...
苏试试验:25Q1业绩同比小幅下降,期待公司后续拐点往上-20250429
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-04-29 01:10
公司发布 2025 年一季报,业绩同比小幅下降。公司 2025 年一季度实现 营业收入 4.29 亿元,同比下降 2.96%;实现归母净利润 0.41 亿元,同比 下降 2.99%;实现扣非归母净利润 0.40 亿元,同比下降 1.43%。受制于 下游客户资本开支需求减弱、下游产业链终端市场的竞争加剧,公司业绩 短期承压,但我们认为公司已渡过低谷期,看好未来公司需求恢复。 证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 28 年 月 日 苏试试验(300416.SZ) 25Q1 业绩同比小幅下降,期待公司后续拐点往上 公司费率整体较为稳定,高研发投入为后续公司增长蓄力。公司 2025 年 一季度期间费用率 31.41%,同比上行 0.28pct;其中,销售费用率为 8.48%,同比增长 0.37pct;管理费用率为 12.46%,同比下降 0.71pct; 财务费用率为 1.57%,同比下降 0.36pct;研发费用率为 8.89%,同比增 长 0.96pct,公司期间费用率稳健。公司 2025 年一季度毛利率为 40.44%, 同比下降 2.03pct,我们认为,公司在市场竞争加剧的背 ...
青达环保:项目交付贡献增量,主营有望持续高增-20250429
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-04-29 01:10
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 619 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 317.34%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 69 million yuan, up 990.26% [1] - The substantial growth is primarily driven by the completion of the "Fish-Solar Complementary" project, which contributed significantly to the company's performance [1] - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for coal power upgrades and auxiliary equipment, with a projected market potential of 700 million to 2.9 billion yuan over the next three years [2] - The company is actively expanding into international markets and diversifying its product offerings, which are expected to become new growth engines for future performance [3] Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1.987 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 51.2%, and net profits of 212 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 128.2% [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.72 yuan in 2025, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 15.1, 12.4, and 10.4 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][5] - The financial outlook indicates a steady increase in revenue and profit margins, with net profit margins projected to improve from 8.4% in 2023 to 11.1% by 2027 [4]
朝闻国盛:关税落地三周,出口变差了多少?
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-04-29 00:18
Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in global trade and Chinese exports following the implementation of new tariffs, particularly affecting exports to the US while showing some improvement in exports to Vietnam [4] - The report anticipates that China's exports in April may see a notable decline, but "trans-exports" could partially offset this impact, with overall export figures not expected to turn significantly negative due to low base effects [4] Macroeconomic Analysis - Global trade indicators have shown a downturn since April, with a notable drop in US container bookings and port truck transport volumes, indicating a larger decline in US imports [4] - In China, high-frequency data related to exports to the US has weakened, while indicators for exports to Vietnam have improved, suggesting a shift in trade dynamics [4] - Industrial operating rates in sectors like automotive and textiles have recently weakened, likely linked to the impact of increased tariffs [4] Industry Performance Mechanical Sector - Peak Technology (688279.SH) reported slightly better-than-expected performance in Q1 2025, with a focus on expanding applications in home appliances, automotive, and industrial sectors [8] - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for high-performance motor control chips due to advancements in automation and smart technologies [8] Food and Beverage Sector - Haitian Flavor Industry (603288.SH) achieved Q1 2025 revenue of 8.315 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.08%, and a net profit of 2.202 billion yuan, up 14.77% [9] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the restaurant sector and plans for overseas expansion, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 of 7.01 billion, 7.82 billion, and 8.65 billion yuan respectively [10] Construction and Decoration Sector - China State Construction (601668.SH) demonstrated resilience with a 40% increase in infrastructure orders, while maintaining stable net profit margins [14] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 44.8 billion, 45.4 billion, and 45.6 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, reflecting a slight decline in 2025 followed by modest growth [14] Electrical Equipment Sector - Tian Shun Wind Power (002531.SZ) is facing short-term performance pressures but is expected to see improvements as offshore wind projects ramp up [15] - Qingda Environmental Protection (688501.SH) is projected to achieve significant revenue growth, with expected revenues of 1.987 billion, 2.384 billion, and 2.785 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [16] Home Appliances Sector - Hisense Home Appliances (000921.SZ) reported Q1 2025 revenue of 24.838 billion yuan, a 5.76% year-on-year increase, with net profit rising by 14.89% [20] - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in net profits over the next few years, with projections of 3.75 billion, 4.186 billion, and 4.602 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [20] Steel Construction Sector - Precision Steel Structure (600496.SH) has shown improved report quality and rapid growth in overseas business, with projected net profits of 570 million, 640 million, and 710 million yuan from 2025 to 2027 [22]
固定收益定期:出口价格尚无明显反应
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-04-28 08:42
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report updates the high - frequency data of various aspects of the economy from April 19th to April 25th, 2025. The overall fundamental high - frequency index is stable, with different trends in production, demand, prices, inventory, transportation, and financing [10][11]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Stable - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 125.2 points (previous value: 125.1 points), with a year - on - year growth of 3.8% (previous value: 3.7%), and the year - on - year increase has rebounded. The long - short signal for interest - rate bonds is long, and the signal factor has dropped to 5.5% (previous value: 5.8%) [1][10]. 2. Production: Electric Furnace Operating Rate Drops Slightly - The industrial production high - frequency index is 125.0, with a year - on - year growth of 3.8% (previous value: 3.7%). The electric furnace operating rate is 64.1% (previous value: 64.7%); the polyester operating rate is 91.8% (previous value: 91.0%); the semi - tire operating rate is 78.1% (previous value: 78.4%); the full - tire operating rate is 62.5% (previous value: 65.4%); the PTA operating rate is 80.0% (previous value: 76.7%); the PX operating rate is 77.4% (previous value: 78.2%) [10][12][17]. 3. Real Estate Sales: New Home Sales Remain Negative Year - on - Year - The high - frequency index of commercial housing sales is 45.4, with a year - on - year decline of 13.2% (previous value: 13.5%). The commercial housing transaction area of 30 large and medium - sized cities has increased to 22.0 million square meters, and the premium rate of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities has dropped to 4.3% [10][12][31]. 4. Infrastructure Investment: Asphalt Operating Rate Rises Slightly - The high - frequency index of infrastructure investment is 116.6, with a year - on - year decline of 0.8% (previous value: 1.5%). The operating rate of petroleum installations is 30.7% (previous value: 28.7%) [10][12][39]. 5. Exports: Export Commodity Prices Rise Slightly - The high - frequency index of exports is 144.9, with a year - on - year growth of 6.1% (previous value: 6.7%). The CCFI index has increased to 1122 points, and the RJ/CRB commodity price index has increased to 296.5 points [1][10][49]. 6. Consumption: Movie Box Office Remains Below the Same Period in Previous Years - The high - frequency index of consumption is 119.4, with a year - on - year growth of 0.9% (previous value: 0.7%). The average daily movie box office has increased to 35.62 million yuan, and the average daily retail sales of passenger car manufacturers on April 25th are 54,522 vehicles [2][10][60]. 7. CPI: Pork Prices Rise Slightly - The predicted month - on - month CPI is 0.1% (previous value: - 0.1%). The average wholesale price of pork is 20.9 yuan/kg (previous value: 20.8 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables is 4.6 yuan/kg (previous value: 4.7 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 7 key monitored fruits is 7.6 yuan/kg (previous value: 7.5 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.3 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.3 yuan/kg) [2][10][68]. 8. PPI: Non - Ferrous Metal Prices Rise - The predicted month - on - month PPI is - 0.3% (previous value: - 0.3%). The ex - works price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (Shanxi origin) is 658 yuan/ton (previous value: 664 yuan/ton); the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 67 US dollars/barrel (previous value: 66 US dollars/barrel); the spot settlement price of LME copper is 9,371 US dollars/ton (previous value: 9,123 US dollars/ton) [2][10][76]. 9. Transportation: Passenger Transport Rises, Freight Remains Flat - The high - frequency index of transportation is 126.5, with a year - on - year growth of 5.9% (previous value: 5.5%). The passenger volume of the subway in first - tier cities has increased to 39.54 million person - times, the highway logistics freight rate index remains flat at 1050 points, and the number of domestic flights has increased to 12,780 [2][11][87]. 10. Inventory: Steel Stocks Continue to Decline - The high - frequency index of inventory is 159.3, with a year - on - year growth of 6.6% (previous value: 6.4%). The total inventory of soda ash has dropped to 1.691 million tons [2][11][95]. 11. Financing: Net Financing of Government Bonds Rises - The high - frequency index of financing is 224.7, with a year - on - year growth of 14.7% (previous value: 14.1%). The cumulative net financing of local bonds has increased to 162.5 billion yuan, the cumulative net financing of credit bonds has increased to 115.9 billion yuan, and the 6M national - share bank acceptance bill transfer discount rate has dropped to 1.07% [3][11][108].
同花顺(300033):一季度业绩符合预期,AI金融流量变现领军
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-04-28 08:36
证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 28 年 月 日 同花顺(300033.SZ) 一季度业绩符合预期,AI 金融流量变现领军 事件:4 月 24 日,公司发布 2025 年一季报,实现营业总收入 7.48 亿元,同比增加 20.90%;实现归属上市公司股东的净利润 1.20 亿元,同比增加 15.91%,业绩符合预 期。 经营性现金流净额良好,合同负债同比+67.39%。1)公司发布 2025 年一季报,实 现营业总收入 7.48 亿元,同比增加 20.90%;实现归属上市公司股东的净利润 1.20 亿 元,同比增加 15.91%;实现扣非后归母净利 1.13 亿元,同比+13.72%。2)2025 年 一季度经营活动现金流净额 3.13 亿元,同比+720.40%,经营性现金流净额良好。3) 2025Q1公司销售/管理/研发费用分别为 1.66/0.63/2.91 亿元,同比+47.36%/-2.33%/- 3.72%;销售费用增幅较大主要系加大营销推广力度,销售人员薪酬及广告宣传费增加 所致。4)2025Q1 公司合同负债 18.68 亿元,同比+67.39%,环比+2 ...