Group 1 - Recent macro data indicates a positive trend for the semiconductor industry, with April sales in China showing a year-on-year increase of 14.4%, marking a significant improvement compared to previous periods [1][18]. - The white goods sector, particularly Midea Group, has demonstrated strong revenue and performance growth, with a 45% increase in revenue from new energy and industrial technology, likely influenced by the consumption upgrade policy [3][35]. - The gaming industry is experiencing varied performance among companies, with some achieving growth through overseas expansion and new game launches, while others focus on cost control [4][39]. Group 2 - The precious metals sector is benefiting from rising gold prices, which have positively impacted company profits, as indicated by the performance of leading firms in this industry [3][34]. - The home goods industry has seen profitability improvements primarily due to cost control measures, with companies like Gujia Home and Qumei Home reporting reductions in labor and material costs [3][36]. - In the beverage and dairy sector, companies such as Miaoke Landuo and Beiyinmei have reported improved profitability, driven by product structure optimization and revenue growth [3][38]. Group 3 - The leisure food industry has shown significant upward revisions in profit forecasts, indicating strong growth potential [2][30]. - The motorcycle and other sectors are experiencing revenue growth driven by increased sales of various products and an optimized revenue structure [4][30]. - The non-metal materials sector has also seen positive performance, attributed to the rise in both volume and price of prebaked anodes [6][30].

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 06 22 年 月 日 风险提示：以上结论均基于历史数据和统计模型的测算，如果未来市场环 境发生明显改变，不排除模型失效的可能性。 作者 分析师 林志朋 执业证书编号：S0680518100004 邮箱：linzhipeng@gszq.com 分析师 刘富兵 执业证书编号：S0680518030007 邮箱：liufubing@gszq.com 研究助理 汪宜生 执业证书编号：S0680123070005 量化点评报告 经济周期迈入信用扩张阶段 经济周期迈入信用扩张阶段，可逐步增配进攻型资产。在专题报告《中国 经济六周期模型与多资产策略应用》中，我们基于货币-信用-增长三个维 度方向来刻画宏观状态，该模型自 2023 年 9 月以来长期处于阶段 4~6 的 信用收缩阶段，从历史统计来看往往债券、黄金资产和价值风格表现较佳， 与过去两年市场表现也较为相符。5 月信贷数据公布后，信用周期筑底回 升，模型进入信用扩张阶段，资产、风格、行业配置建议如下，可逐步进 行增配：1）资产：股票、商品、黄金；2）风格：成长；3）行业：TMT、 消费。 ① 中长贷脉 ...

但需要看到的是，如果市场空间进一步打开，那么依然需要活跃品种突破关键 点位。而我们认为这可能就在本季度末前后，而关键力量依然是银行，特别是 城农商行。由于平均久期、流动性指标等季末指标考核压力，以及银行盈利能 力不足情况下兑现浮盈的需求，季末银行多出现显著的抛券压力，这次也不例 外。而目前抛券压力中小行可能大于大行。一方面，央行对流动性的呵护以及 大行负债成本的明显下降，缓解了大行压力；另一方面，目前中小行盈利能力 可能弱于大行。一季度各类银行净利润同比增速来看，城商行跌幅最大，同比 -6.7%，股份行和农商行净利润分别为-4.5%和-2.0%，而大行净利润则为 0.1%的微幅正增长。因而近期抛券压力或更为集中在中小行，特别是城农商 行。过去两年，中小行在 5 或 6 月基本上都会减持债券，如果考虑到政府债 券供给，这种减持会更明显。而减持后的 7、8 月，中小行又会再度增配债券， 买回此前减持仓位。 但是即使中小行，在资产荒的格局之下，也难以持续抛售债券。当前市场处于 资产荒格局。一方面，政府债券供给节奏放缓，下半年政府债券供给节奏预计 会放缓，特别是从同比多增的角度来看，政府债券或在三季度进入同比少增阶 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials sector [4] Core Viewpoints - The construction materials sector is experiencing a demand season that is not significantly weak, supported by delayed renovations in the second-hand housing market [2] - The glass market is facing a contradiction between supply and demand, with a continuous decline in demand expected post-2025, although there has been marginal improvement since March [2] - The cement industry is in a phase of seeking a bottom, with increased off-peak production efforts by companies, leading to fluctuating prices around unprofitable levels [2] - The fiberglass market has shown signs of bottoming out, with price wars ending and prices beginning to recover, particularly in the wind power sector [2] - Carbon fiber demand is slowly recovering, with growth expected in downstream sectors such as wind power and hydrogen bottles [2] Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of June 20, 2025, the national cement price index is 362.67 yuan/ton, down 0.21% from the previous week, with a total cement output of 2.781 million tons, a decrease of 2.88% [3][16] - The cement market is currently in a phase of "weak reality" and "weak expectations," with potential for weak recovery by the end of Q3 if policies are strengthened or the rainy season ends [16] Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass is 1209.75 yuan/ton, down 1.64% from the previous week, with inventory levels increasing [32] - The market is expected to experience short-term price fluctuations downward, with ongoing challenges in meeting demand during the seasonal downturn [32] Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The price of non-alkali roving has shown a stable decline, with demand for high-end products like wind power yarn performing relatively well [6] - The overall price of fiberglass is expected to maintain a weak and stable trend in the short term [6] Carbon Fiber Industry Tracking - The carbon fiber market price remains stable, with a weekly production of 1781 tons and an operating rate of 60.13% [7] - The industry continues to face losses, with a production cost of 106,500 yuan/ton and a negative gross margin [7] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Beixin Building Materials (Buy), Weixing New Materials (Overweight), and China Jushi (Buy) with respective EPS forecasts for 2024A to 2027E [8]

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 06 22 年 月 日 宏观定期 政策半月观—下半年政策有 4 大节点 近半月，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在伦敦举行，陆家嘴论坛召开。我们对每 半月重大政策进行跟踪：1）中央、部委重要会议与政策；2）地方政策；3） 行业与产业政策。本期为近半月（2025.6.9-6.22）的政策跟踪。 核心结论：总体看，近半月政策延续聚焦稳增长、扩内需，具体有 6 大焦点： 一是 6.9-10 中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在伦敦举行，聚焦关税和稀土，本次 会议后中美关税水平保持现状，但随着 7.9（对全球）和 8.12（对中国）两个 暂缓期结束，继续紧盯后续美国与中国、欧盟等关税谈判。二是 6.17 总书记 出席第二节中国-中亚峰会并作主旨发言，继 4 月东南亚之行、5 月访问俄罗 斯，6 月来到中亚，也是今年以来第三次元首出访聚焦周边，此次峰会聚焦共 建"一带一路"、人员往来便利化、绿色矿产、贸易畅通等领域。三是 6.18 陆 家嘴论坛开幕，"一行一会一局"一把手出席开幕式并发表主题演讲，其中， 央行将在上海实施 8 项金融开放政策，金监总局聚焦支持上海金融开放，证 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests an "Increase" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the stablecoin and RWA sectors [6]. Core Insights - The competition in the stablecoin market is intensifying, particularly in Hong Kong, with major players like JD.com and Ant Group actively seeking licenses to issue stablecoins [10][11]. - The global stablecoin market has seen explosive growth, with a total market capitalization reaching approximately $230.74 billion as of June 1, 2025, representing a staggering increase of about 5745.88% since 2019 [42]. - The RWA (Real World Asset) market is also expanding rapidly, with a total market size of around $23 billion, showing a growth rate of 6.4% over the past month [49]. Summary by Sections Stablecoin Development - The Hong Kong government is advancing its stablecoin policy, with the "Stablecoin Ordinance" set to take effect on August 1, 2025, allowing qualified applicants to issue stablecoins [9][31]. - Major companies like JD.com and Ant Group are in the process of applying for stablecoin licenses, aiming to leverage blockchain technology for cross-border payments and other financial services [11][16]. RWA Market Growth - The RWA market is projected to accelerate with multiple projects launching in 2024, covering sectors such as energy and agriculture [44]. - Notable projects include Ant Group's collaboration with Longxin Group for financing based on renewable energy assets, marking a significant step in the RWA space [22][45]. Industry Players and Infrastructure - Key players in the stablecoin infrastructure include ZhongAn Online, Sifang Technology, and others, which are expected to benefit from the growing demand for stablecoin solutions [52]. - The report highlights the involvement of local Hong Kong entities like Standard Chartered Bank in forming joint ventures to issue stablecoins, indicating a collaborative approach to market entry [29][27].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 06 22 年 月 日 电力 火电出力由降转增，1-5 月绿电交易电量增长近 50% 本周行情回顾：本周（6.16-6.20）上证指数报收 3359.90 点，下跌 0.51%，沪深 300 指数 报收 3846.64 点，下跌 0.45%。中信电力及公用事业指数报收 2913.94 点，下跌 1.14%， 跑输沪深 300 指数 0.68pct，位列 30 个中信一级板块涨跌幅榜第 11 位。 本周行业观点： ➢ 5 月火电发电增速由负转正，水电降幅扩大。根据国家统计局发布数据，5 月份全国 规上发电量 7378 亿千瓦时，同比增长 0.5%，增速比 4 月份放缓 0.4pct；日均发电 238.0 亿千瓦时。1—5 月份，工业发电量 37266 亿千瓦时，同比增长 0.3%，扣除天 数原因，日均发电量同比增长 1.0%。 分品种看，5 月单月，规上工业火电由降转增，水电降幅扩大，核电、风电、太阳能 发电增速放缓。其中，规上工业火电同比增长 1.2%，4 月份为下降 2.3%；规上工业 水电下降 14.3%，降幅比 4 月份扩大 7.8 个百分 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 06 22 年 月 日 银行 本周聚焦—南向资金买了多少银行股？ 一、南向资金买了多少银行股？ 近年来，政策层面持续推动中长期资金入市，2025 年 1 月，中央金融办、 证监会等六部委联合印发《关于推动中长期资金入市工作的实施方案》， 提出引导大型国有保险公司增加 A 股（含权益类基金）投资规模和实际比 例，并实行三年以上的长周期考核。在此背景下，银行股具备业绩稳定、 高分红、流动性较好的属性，今年以来持续获得险资青睐。 1）中长期资金入市 1 月 23 日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，中国证监会主席吴清表 示，力争大型国有保险公司从 2025 年起每年新增保费的 30%用于投资 A 股。今年一季度保险公司资金运用余额中投向股票的增量资金为 3893 亿 元（含财产险公司和人身险公司），同比多增 3823 亿元，投向股票在资 金运用余额中的比重亦提升至 8.4%。 3）南向资金增配港股银行 2025 年以来，南向资金持续增配港股银行，截至 6 月 20 日，南向资金年 内净流入港股规模已突破 7000 亿元，其中港股银行净流入规模达 136 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the industry [4] Core Views - The escalation of the Middle East situation is likely to increase the allocation to gold as a safe-haven asset, with recommendations to focus on companies such as Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining [1][35] - The demand outlook for copper remains uncertain, with prices experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical uncertainties and tariff disruptions, while global copper inventories have increased slightly [1] - The aluminum market is expected to see short-term price strength due to decreasing social inventories, despite an increase in supply expectations [1] - The lithium industry is facing a continued inventory build-up, leading to a weak price outlook in the short term, with a slight increase in production but weak demand from downstream material manufacturers [2] - The silicon metal market is experiencing a loose supply-demand balance, with prices expected to remain under pressure due to increased supply and limited demand growth [2] Summary by Sections Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metal sector has generally seen a decline this week, with prices across various non-ferrous products also decreasing [12][21] - The report highlights that the copper price is currently at 77,990 CNY/ton, showing no change week-on-week, while aluminum is at 20,465 CNY/ton, also stable [23] Industrial Metals - Copper: The demand outlook is unclear, with a slight increase in global copper inventories to 519,000 tons, and a year-on-year production increase of 1.1% in Q1 2025 [1] - Aluminum: The production capacity remains stable at 43.89 million tons, with expectations of increased supply but also a potential weakening in market transactions [1] Energy Metals - Lithium: The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has decreased by 2.0% to 64,000 CNY/ton, with a production increase of 2% to 18,500 tons this week [2] - Silicon Metal: The average cost of metal silicon has decreased by 5.6% to 10,767.4 CNY/ton, with a weekly production of 36,600 tons [2] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining for gold, and companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and China Hongqiao for aluminum [1][7]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 06 22 年 月 日 传媒 5 月中国游戏市场规模达 280.51 亿元，Kimi-Dev-72B 登顶全 球开源编程模型 行情概览：本周（6.16-6.20）中信一级传媒板块下跌 1.78%。本周传媒板 块受整体市场影响下跌。2025 年传媒弹性方向看好 AI 应用、IP 变现及并购 重组，AI 应用聚焦新应用的映射投资及部分较成熟应用的数据跟踪，重点关 注多模态产业方向。IP 变现聚焦有 IP 优势及全产业链潜力的公司，潮流玩具、 影视内容等方向有机会。并购重组重点关注国企方向，在国资委明确国企市值 考核的背景下，传媒国企诉求明显提升，部分国企资金优势明显。 板块观点与关注标的：1）资源整合预期：中视传媒、国新文化、广西广电、 唐德影视、吉视传媒、游族网络等；2）AI：荣信文化、奥飞娱乐、汤姆猫、 盛天网络、中文在线、易点天下、视觉中国、盛通股份、焦点科技、豆神教育、 世纪天鸿、佳发教育等；3）游戏：建议关注确定性强的神州泰岳、恺英网络、 巨人网络、吉比特，关注完美世界、ST 华通、冰川网络、华立科技；4）国企： 慈文传媒、皖新传媒、中文传 ...