Group 1 - The coal mining sector is experiencing a slight recovery in prices as summer demand begins to rise, with the market showing signs of life after a prolonged period of decline [2][12][36] - The China Coal Index is at 3,215.27 points, down 0.66%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.21 percentage points, ranking 9th among the CITIC sector performance [2][82] - The report highlights that the main production areas are maintaining stable supply levels, with some coal mines resuming production after previous shutdowns due to safety and environmental inspections [12][39] Group 2 - The report indicates that the demand for thermal coal is gradually increasing as temperatures rise, leading to a quick uptick in daily consumption by power plants [12][27] - Port inventories are decreasing, but the upward price momentum is limited due to cautious buying behavior from downstream users, primarily relying on long-term contracts [14][36] - The report notes that the focus should be on the intensity of demand during the peak season and any potential policy changes that may affect the market [6][12] Group 3 - The coking coal market is showing mixed price movements, with supply constraints due to environmental checks leading to a slight recovery in prices in some regions [39][42] - The report emphasizes that the overall supply of coking coal is decreasing, with some coal mines still not back to full production, impacting market dynamics [39][58] - The report suggests that the future price movements of coking coal will depend on several factors, including domestic production adjustments and potential import disruptions [39][58] Group 4 - Key recommended stocks in the coal sector include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and new energy companies like Electric Power Investment Energy, indicating a positive outlook for these firms [7][8] - The report identifies several companies with strong performance metrics, suggesting that high-quality firms are likely to outperform in the current market environment [8][7] - The focus on coal companies with potential for recovery and growth is highlighted, particularly those that have recently undergone significant changes or restructuring [8]

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 06 21 年 月 日 量化分析报告 择时雷达六面图：本周综合打分维持中性 择时雷达六面图：基于多维视角的择时框架。权益市场的表现受到多维度 指标因素的共同影响，我们尝试从流动性、经济面、估值面、资金面、技 术面、拥挤度选取二十一个指标对市场进行刻画，并将其概括为"估值性 价比"、"宏观基本面"、"资金&趋势"、"拥挤度&反转"四大类，从而生成 [-1,1]之间的综合择时分数。 本周综合打分。本周市场的估值性价比下降，宏观基本面、资金&趋势与 拥挤度&反转分数变化不大，综合打分位于[-1,1]之间，当前的综合打分为 0.07 分，整体为中性观点。当前六面图各个维度的观点如下： 流动性。本周货币强度、信用强度发出看空信号，货币方向、信用方向 发出看多信号，当前流动性得分为 0.00 分，综合来看信号中性。 经济面。本周通胀方向与通胀强度指标发出看多信号，增长方向与增长 强度发出看空信号，当前经济面得分为 0.00 分，综合来看信号中性。 估值面。本周席勒 ERP、PB 与 AIAE 指标的分数变化不大，当前市场 的估值面得分为 0.09 分，综合来 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 06 22 年 月 日 量化周报 市场仍处于日线级别上涨中 市场仍处于日线级别上涨中。本周（6.16-6.20），大盘震荡下行，上证指 数全周收跌 0.51%。在此背景下，非银确认日线级别上涨，汽车、新能源 迎来日线级别下跌。当下，我们认为市场再次回到 4 月 7 日低点的概率基 本不存在了。由于上证指数、上证 50、中证 500、中证 1000 仍处于日线 级别上涨中，且还有部分指数和板块没有确认日线上涨，因此，我们认为 市场的日线级别上涨还要持续一段时间，后续市场有望继续上涨。中期来 看，上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、深证成指、创业板指、科 创 50 纷纷确认周线级别上涨，而且在日线上只走出了 1-3 浪结构，中期 牛市刚刚开始；此外，已有 20 个行业处于周线级别上涨中，且 7 个行业 周线上涨只走了 1 浪结构，因此我们认为本轮牛市刚刚开始，而且还是个 普涨格局。中期对于投资者而言，仍然可以逆势布局。 A 股景气指数观察。截至 2025 年 6 月 20 日，A 股景气指数为 20.94，相 比 2023 年底上升 1 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Add" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The coding sector has emerged as a phenomenon in AI applications, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 53% from 2024 to 2029 [1][16] - The adoption rate of AI in U.S. enterprises has increased to 9.2% as of May 2025, up from 7.4% in Q4 2024, with significant growth in education, information, finance, and general services sectors [2][31] - Major AI models are driving a surge in computing power demand, with Google processing over 480 trillion tokens monthly, a 50-fold increase year-on-year [3][39] Summary by Sections Coding - AI coding has become a leading application, with a16z reporting that nearly 90% of code in a high-growth SaaS company is generated by AI tools like Cursor and Claude [13][16] - Cursor, a leading AI programming tool, has seen its annual recurring revenue (ARR) exceed $500 million, marking a 60% increase in just two months [1][24] Agent - Agents are becoming a new growth engine in AI, capable of understanding complex goals and executing multi-step processes, which is accelerating AI adoption across various industries [2][30] - The average budget for AI in enterprises is expected to grow by approximately 75% over the next year, indicating a shift from pilot projects to core IT and business budgets [2][32] Computing Power Demand - The demand for computing power is being reinforced by the rapid growth of major AI models, with Google reporting a monthly token processing volume of over 480 trillion, a 50-fold increase from the previous year [3][39] - OpenAI's revenue is projected to double this year to $12.7 billion, driven by a significant increase in paid enterprise users [42] Domestic AI Applications - Domestic AI applications are also progressing, with ByteDance's AI coding product TRAE achieving over 1 million monthly active users [44] - The daily token usage of the Doubao model has increased by 137 times since its launch, highlighting the growing demand for AI capabilities [56] Investment Opportunities - Key companies to watch in the computing power sector include Cambrian, Haiguang Information, Alibaba, and others [9][58] - In the Agent sector, notable companies include Alibaba, Tencent, and Kingsoft Office, among others [9][58]

证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 gszqdatemark 2025 06 22 年 月 日 固定收益点评 财政支出节奏放缓——5 月财政数据点评 5 月广义财政收入同比再度转负，财政支出力度明显回落。收入端，加总一般公共 预算收入和政府债基金收入，5 月广义财政收入同比-1.2%，收入增速再次转负（4 月同比 2.7%）。支出端，5 月广义财政支出同比增速 4.0%，较前值 12.9%明显回 落。累计看，1-5 月广义财政收入累计同比-1.3%，广义财政支出累计同比 6.6%。 5 月年内税收增速下降，非税同比年内首次转负，一般预算收入增速下滑。2025 年 5 月，一般公共预算收入当月同比 0.1%（（前值 1.9%），税收收入同比 0.6%（（前 值 1.9%），非税收入同比-2.2%（（前值 1.7%），税收收入增速下降，非税同比增速 年内首次转负。分中央和地方看，中央一般公共预算收入当月同比增长 0.4%，地 方一般公共预算本级收入增长-0.1%。 税收方面，个人所得税、国内增值税增速较高，房产相关税收降幅较大。5 月税收 同比 0.56%，四大税种中，国内增值税同比 6.1%（（4 月同比 0.9% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the computing power and optical communication sectors, including Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication [4][10]. Core Insights - The CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) technology is rapidly advancing, with leading companies like Nvidia and Broadcom making significant strides in technology iteration and industrialization, transitioning from validation to large-scale commercialization [1][20]. - The shift towards CPO in the scale-up segment indicates a growing penetration of optical technology within data centers, particularly in cabinet interconnections, which is expected to enhance computing power and communication bandwidth [2][22]. - The trend of large-scale computing clusters is evident, with major CSPs (Cloud Service Providers) building clusters with tens of thousands to millions of GPUs, indicating a robust demand for computing power [3][22]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of CPO technology in enhancing interconnectivity and supporting the construction of larger computing clusters, recommending companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng as key players in the optical module industry [7][24]. Market Trends - The optical communication market is expected to expand as CPO solutions transition from inter-cabinet to intra-cabinet applications, with a notable increase in market understanding and recognition of CPO among traditional optical module manufacturers [7][22]. Key Companies and Recommendations - Recommended companies include Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, and others in the optical communication and computing power sectors, highlighting their potential for growth and market share acquisition [8][24].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Overweight" [4] Core Viewpoints - The current coal price adjustment has been ongoing for nearly four years since the historical peak in Q4 2021, with prices generally returning to levels before the recent uptrend. The market is well aware of the price decline, indicating that the bottom may be near. It is essential to understand the industry's fundamental attributes and maintain confidence and determination [3] - The report highlights that domestic coal companies are increasingly facing losses, with over half (54.8%) of coal enterprises reporting losses as of March 2025. This situation may lead to a higher probability of production cuts as prices continue to decline [3] - The report recommends key coal enterprises such as China Shenhua (H+A), China Coal Energy (H+A), and others, emphasizing that performance-driven stocks will outperform [3][7] Summary by Sections Coal Mining - In May 2025, India's coal imports rebounded, primarily supported by coking coal imports, with total imports reaching 25.82 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.72% and a month-on-month increase of 15.28%, marking the highest level since July 2022 [6][2] - The report notes that the coking coal market remains relatively stable, particularly for high-quality hard coking coal, due to tightening supply from Australia [6] - The performance of the electricity, steel, and cement sectors shows significant divergence, with electricity generation from coal declining by 9.5% year-on-year, while crude steel production increased by 9.5% due to infrastructure development [6] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - China Shenhua (601088.SH) - Buy - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH) - Buy - China Qinfa (00866.HK) - Buy - China Coal Energy (601898.SH) - Buy - Electric Power Investment Energy (002128.SZ) - Buy - Jinneng Holding (601001.SH) - Buy - Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188.SH) - Buy - Xinjie Energy (601918.SH) - Buy [7] Price Trends - As of June 20, 2025, Newcastle coal prices (6000K) are at $218.90 per ton, unchanged from the previous week, while IPE South African Richards Bay coal futures settled at $91.35 per ton, up by $0.10 per ton [35] - The report indicates that coal prices in Europe ARA ports remain stable at $89.00 per ton, with no change from the previous week [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the textile and apparel industry, including Anta Sports, Xtep International, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [10][26][36]. Core Insights - Inditex, the parent company of Zara, reported strong performance in FY2025Q1, with revenue growth of 1.5% year-on-year to €8.3 billion, and a net profit increase of 0.8% to €1.3 billion, benefiting from strict cost control [1][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on brands with solid fundamentals and quality, anticipating performance recovery and valuation increases in 2025 [3][22]. - The apparel manufacturing sector is expected to benefit from easing tariff policies, which may enhance company valuations [24]. Summary by Sections Inditex Performance - Inditex's FY2025Q1 revenue reached €8.3 billion, with a gross margin of 60.6% and a net profit of €1.3 billion, reflecting stable profit margins due to effective cost management [1][15]. - The company’s inventory as of April was €3.791 billion, up 6% year-on-year, indicating healthy inventory quality [17]. Long-term Growth Drivers - Inditex plans to optimize store productivity and expects a 5% year-on-year increase in average sales area per store from 2025 to 2026, alongside continued e-commerce growth [2][20]. Apparel and Footwear Sector - The report highlights the robust growth of sportswear brands, with a healthy inventory and discount levels, particularly in outdoor and running segments, which are expected to expand significantly in 2025 [3][22][25]. - Key recommendations include Anta Sports and Xtep International, with respective 2025 PE ratios of 17x and 10x, indicating strong growth potential [10][25]. Jewelry Sector - Chow Tai Fook's operating profit increased by 10% in FY2025, despite an 18% decline in revenue, attributed to product structure optimization and rising gold prices [9][37]. - The report suggests that companies with strong product differentiation and brand power are likely to outperform the industry in 2025 [4][23]. Textile Manufacturing - The easing of tariff policies is seen as a potential positive for the valuation of leading textile manufacturing companies, which are expected to maintain stable orders and shipments in the short term [24]. - Recommended companies include Shenzhou International and Huayi Group, with 2025 PE ratios of 11x and 14x, respectively [7][24].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 06 22 年 月 日 电力设备 国轩高科与亿航智能达成战略合作，中天科技预中标红海湾六主缆 光伏：需求疲软，硅料价格持续下行。本周根据硅业分会报价，n 型复投料成交均 价 3.44 万元/吨，环比下降 6.27%。n 型颗粒硅成交均价为 3.35 万元/吨，环比下 降 2.90%。p 型多晶硅暂无批量成交。当前受下游需求疲软影响，产业链成交疲 软，价格整体下行。叠加近期硅料企业产能置换逐步推进，带来一定产量增加，6 月硅料产出预计上调环比约 8%左右，带动产业链价格下行。建议持续关注三季度 产业链排产控制情况。核心关注两大方向：1）供给侧偏刚性、后续需求复苏后价 格弹性更大的硅料和玻璃，核心关注协鑫科技、通威股份、福莱特等。2）新技术 背景下带来的中长期成长性机会，核心关注爱旭股份、聚和材料等。 风电&电网：中天科技预中标红海湾六海上风电项目 500kV 海底电缆。2025 年 6 月 20 日，深能汕尾红海湾六海上风电项目 500kV 海底电缆供货及敷设采购项目 预中标公示，其中中天科技以 8.96 亿元预中标。深能汕尾红海湾六海上风电项目 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 06 22 年 月 日 增持（维持） 行业走势 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 2025-06 食品饮料 沪深300 食品饮料 周观点：啤酒旺季重视成长，白酒企业持续变革 投资建议：1、白酒：股东大会展现白酒企业理性客观、持续深化变革、 重视股东回报，优质龙头配置价值凸显，行业静待边际改善，建议关注 "优势龙头、红利延续、强势复苏"三条主线：1）优势龙头，头部酒 企份额持续提升：贵州茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、古井贡酒；2）红利 延续，高确定性区域酒：今世缘（江苏格局红利）、迎驾贡酒（洞藏大 单品红利）等；3）受益复苏与风险偏好提升，弹性标的：泸州老窖、 水井坊、舍得酒业、老白干酒、港股珍酒李渡、酒鬼酒等。2、大众品： 珠啤董事长换届落地，百润崃州上新，IFBH 通过港交所聆讯：1）高 景气或高成长逻辑：盐津铺子、东鹏饮料、燕京啤酒、珠江啤酒、三只 松鼠、百润股份、有友食品、好想你等，港股农夫山泉、华润饮料、卫 龙美味等。2）政策受益或复苏改善：青岛啤酒、海天味业、新乳业、 伊利股份、 ...