Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Timing Radar Six-Sided Chart - **Model Construction Idea**: The performance of the equity market is influenced by multiple dimensions. This model attempts to describe the market using 21 indicators from liquidity, economic, valuation, capital, technical, and congestion perspectives, summarized into four categories: "Valuation Cost-Effectiveness," "Macro Fundamentals," "Capital & Trend," and "Congestion & Reversal," generating a comprehensive timing score between [-1,1][2][7]. - **Model Construction Process**: - **Liquidity**: Indicators include monetary direction, monetary strength, credit direction, and credit strength. For example, the monetary direction factor is calculated based on the average change in central bank policy rates and short-term market rates over the past 90 days[13]. - **Economic**: Indicators include growth direction, growth strength, inflation direction, and inflation strength. For example, the growth direction factor is based on PMI data, calculated as the 12-month average of PMI and its year-over-year change[23]. - **Valuation**: Indicators include Shiller ERP, PB, and AIAE. For example, Shiller ERP is calculated as 1/Shiller PE - 10-year government bond yield, with a z-score over the past 6 years[35]. - **Capital**: Indicators include margin financing increment, trading volume trend, China sovereign CDS spread, and overseas risk aversion index. For example, the margin financing increment is calculated as the difference between the 120-day and 240-day moving averages of financing balance minus short-selling balance[44]. - **Technical**: Indicators include price trend and new highs and lows. For example, the price trend factor is calculated as the distance between the 120-day and 240-day moving averages[54]. - **Congestion**: Indicators include implied premium/discount, VIX, SKEW, and convertible bond pricing deviation. For example, the implied premium/discount is derived from the put-call parity relationship[59]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a comprehensive view of the market by integrating multiple dimensions, making it a robust tool for market timing[2][7]. Model Backtesting Results - **Current Comprehensive Score**: -0.13, slightly down by 0.01 from last week, indicating a neutral view[2][7]. - **Liquidity Score**: 0.25, indicating a slightly bullish signal[9]. - **Economic Score**: -0.25, indicating a slightly bearish signal[9]. - **Valuation Score**: -0.50, indicating a slightly bearish signal[9]. - **Capital Score**: 0.00, indicating a neutral signal[9]. - **Technical Score**: 0.00, indicating a neutral signal[9]. - **Congestion Score**: 0.00, indicating a neutral signal[9]. Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Monetary Direction Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: To determine the direction of current monetary policy using central bank policy rates and short-term market rates[13]. - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculate the average change in central bank policy rates and short-term market rates over the past 90 days. If the factor is greater than 0, it indicates a bullish signal[13]. - **Factor Evaluation**: Provides a clear indication of the direction of monetary policy, useful for assessing liquidity conditions[13]. 2. Factor Name: Monetary Strength Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Based on the "interest rate corridor" concept to measure the deviation of short-term market rates from policy rates[16]. - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculate the deviation as DR007/7-year reverse repo rate - 1, smooth and z-score it to form the monetary strength factor. If the factor is less than -1.5 standard deviations, it indicates a bullish signal[16]. - **Factor Evaluation**: Useful for assessing the strength of monetary policy and its impact on market liquidity[16]. 3. Factor Name: Credit Direction Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: To measure the tightness of credit transmission from commercial banks to the real economy using medium and long-term loan data[19]. - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculate the year-over-year change in the 12-month increment of medium and long-term loans. If the factor is rising compared to three months ago, it indicates a bullish signal[19]. - **Factor Evaluation**: Provides insights into the credit environment and its impact on economic activity[19]. 4. Factor Name: Growth Direction Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Based on PMI data to measure the direction of economic growth[23]. - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculate the 12-month average of PMI and its year-over-year change. If the factor is rising compared to three months ago, it indicates a bullish signal[23]. - **Factor Evaluation**: Useful for assessing the direction of economic growth and its impact on market sentiment[23]. 5. Factor Name: Shiller ERP - **Factor Construction Idea**: To adjust for the impact of economic cycles on corporate earnings and market valuation[35]. - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculate Shiller PE as the average inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 6 years, then calculate Shiller ERP as 1/Shiller PE - 10-year government bond yield, and z-score it over the past 6 years[35]. - **Factor Evaluation**: Provides a long-term perspective on market valuation, useful for identifying overvalued or undervalued conditions[35]. Factor Backtesting Results - **Monetary Direction Factor**: Score of 1, indicating a bullish signal[13]. - **Monetary Strength Factor**: Score of -1, indicating a bearish signal[17]. - **Credit Direction Factor**: Score of 1, indicating a bullish signal[19]. - **Growth Direction Factor**: Score of 1, indicating a bullish signal[23]. - **Shiller ERP**: Score of -0.04, indicating a slightly bearish signal[35].

资金平稳，存单利率依然较高——流动性和机构行为跟踪 证券研究报告 | 固定收益 gszqdatemark 2025 10 25 年 月 日 固定收益定期 资金平稳，小幅波动。本周 R001 收于 1.38%（前值 1.36%），DR001 收 于 1.32%（（前值 1.32%）。R007 收于 1.46%（（前值 1.47%），DR007 收于 1.41%（前值 1.41%）。DR007 与 7 天 OMO 利差收于 1.10bp。6M 国股 银票转贴利率收于 0.66%（前值 0.71%）。 央行公开市场投放资金，国库现金定存发行。本周央行逆回购投放 8672 亿元，逆回购到期 7891 亿元，逆回购净投放 781 亿元。此外，本周国库 现金定存投放 1200 亿元。 存单到期收益率涨跌互现，国债收益率小幅上行。存单到期收益率来看， 本周 3M 收益率下行 0.44bp 收于 1.59%，6M 收益率上行 0.03bp 收于 1.64%，1Y 收益率上行 0.87bp 收于 1.68%。本周 1 年存单与 R007 利差 扩大 1.23bp 至 21.01bp。1 年国债收益率上行 2.82bp 至 1. ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "Hold" rating for the computer industry, indicating a relative performance within -5% to +5% compared to the benchmark index [44]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of three core elements for AI applications: data, models, and interfaces, which are crucial for evaluating the potential of AI applications [14][18]. - The competition for AI entry points is intensifying, with major players like OpenAI launching new products such as the ChatGPT Atlas browser, which integrates AI capabilities directly into the browsing experience [22][27]. - The demand for computing power is surging, highlighted by Anthropic's partnership with Google to deploy 1 million TPU chips, aiming for over 1GW of computing capacity by 2026 [30][28]. Summary by Sections Custom Agent Insights - The report discusses the evolution of AI agents, noting that successful applications require specialized data, enhanced model capabilities, and open interfaces for interaction with external systems [14][18]. - Examples include the integration of real-time data in travel agents like Fliggy, which improves the accuracy and timeliness of recommendations [16][17]. AI Browser Developments - OpenAI's ChatGPT Atlas browser allows users to interact with AI directly within the browser, providing personalized memory capabilities and the ability to perform tasks based on user input [22][26]. - This development signifies a strategic move to establish a core operating system for internet navigation, potentially replacing traditional browsers [27]. Computing Power Demand - The report highlights the increasing need for computing resources driven by advancements in AI, with Anthropic's collaboration with Google representing a significant investment in cloud computing [30][28]. - The introduction of the Doubao-Seed-3D-1.0 model by ByteDance is expected to further elevate computing demands by enabling high-quality 3D model generation from single images [33][31]. Companies to Watch - The report identifies several companies to monitor in the computing power sector, including Cambrian, Haiguang Information, and others, as well as AI application developers like Alibaba and Tencent [34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the resilience of the photovoltaic market amid supply-demand balance, with stable prices across major segments. The average transaction price for N-type raw materials is 53,200 RMB/ton, and for N-type granular silicon is 50,500 RMB/ton, both remaining stable month-on-month. The expected production of polysilicon in October is projected to reach an annual peak, with a total output of 382,000 tons in Q4, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase of 3.0% [14][15] - The wind energy sector is set to see significant growth, with the "Wind Energy Beijing Declaration 2.0" proposing an annual new installed capacity of no less than 120GW during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with offshore wind power contributing at least 15GW annually. This represents a 140% increase in the target for new installations by 2030 compared to the previous declaration [15][16] - The hydrogen energy sector is witnessing advancements, with Dongfeng and Honda launching hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles, aiming to contribute to carbon neutrality. The report suggests focusing on leading equipment manufacturers in this field [18][19] Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Generation - **Photovoltaics**: The market shows resilience with stable prices. The average price for N-type silicon wafers is 1.70 RMB per piece, and the delivery price for 210N components has seen a noticeable increase, with some companies quoting between 0.72-0.75 RMB per watt. Domestic component inventory is expected to decrease to around 30GW in October, indicating an improving supply-demand relationship [14][15] - **Wind Power & Grid**: The wind energy sector is expected to grow significantly, with a focus on high-quality development and price stability. The report emphasizes the importance of technological innovation and reliability in wind turbine manufacturing [15][17] - **Hydrogen & Energy Storage**: The report notes the launch of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and suggests focusing on companies with strong brand and channel advantages in the hydrogen sector. For energy storage, it highlights the bidding and winning of projects, with a focus on companies with high growth certainty in large-scale storage [18][19][27] 2. New Energy Vehicles - The report discusses Rongqi Technology's acquisition of a 19.81% stake in Sichuan Lieneng, which specializes in isostatic pressing equipment crucial for solid-state battery production. This move is expected to enhance the production capabilities of solid-state batteries, addressing key challenges in mass production [29][30] 3. Price Dynamics in the Photovoltaic Industry Chain - The report provides insights into the price dynamics of the photovoltaic industry, indicating stable prices across various segments, with specific price points for polysilicon and silicon wafers [31][32] 4. Important News of the Week - The report summarizes significant developments in the new energy vehicle sector, including major investments in battery technology and projects aimed at enhancing production capabilities in solid-state batteries [33][34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on performance due to industry downturns, with a focus on waiting for demand recovery [1] - Despite the challenges in the main gypsum board business, the waterproof and coating segments are expanding against the industry trend, indicating potential for future growth [3] - The company is actively optimizing its debt situation while also pursuing both organic and external growth strategies [2] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 19.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.59 billion yuan, down 17.8% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 29.5%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 13.3%, down 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company’s operating cash flow for the third quarter was 1.54 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 43.1% year-on-year [2] Business Strategy Summary - The company plans to invest in a new production line in Ningbo, Zhejiang, to enhance its gypsum board capacity and reduce logistics costs [2] - An intention to acquire a 100% stake in an overseas building materials company is noted, which aligns with the company's core business and is expected to enhance its international presence [2] Earnings Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 25.98 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 3.18 billion yuan, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 12.0% over the next three years [3] - The estimated P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 12.5, 11.4, and 10.0 respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in quarterly net profit, achieving a three-year high in non-recurring net profit, with a year-on-year growth of 24.12% in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - The company is transitioning towards high-end product structures, with a notable increase in the proportion of special steel long products, which is expected to enhance profitability [2] - Following the integration with a central enterprise, the company is positioned to leverage shareholder resources for improved operational synergy and financial resource sharing [3] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 432.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.19%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 21.76 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.12% [1] - The company’s gross profit margin and net profit margin have shown significant improvement, with quarterly gross profit margins for 2024Q4 to 2025Q3 projected at 12.02%, 11.79%, 14.52%, and 15.07% respectively [1] - The company’s advanced steel material sales reached 133.72 million tons in the first half of 2025, accounting for 29.77% of total steel product sales, with a gross margin of 20.26% [2] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.186 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 7.31 billion yuan, which represents 50% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 [3] Market Position and Valuation - The company is focused on the manufacturing of mid-to-high-end specialized plates and special steel long products, benefiting from product structure improvements and shareholder empowerment, indicating a resilient profitability outlook [3] - The report suggests that the company’s valuation has significant recovery potential, with a market capitalization corresponding to a valuation midpoint of approximately 33.6 billion yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company's coal and electricity businesses have shown a sequential recovery, with performance slightly exceeding expectations. For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 9.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.95%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.477 billion yuan, down 19.06% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, operating revenue was 3.199 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.16% but a sequential increase of 10.25%. The net profit for Q3 was 555 million yuan, down 14.24% year-on-year but up 43.12% sequentially [1][4]. Summary by Sections Coal Business - The coal business has seen price increases and cost reductions, leading to sequential growth in performance [2]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved coal production of 5.61 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, and coal sales of 5.03 million tons, up 7.5% year-on-year [8]. Electricity Business - The electricity segment has experienced significant growth in sales volume, with the first phase of the Lixin wind power project expected to be connected to the grid by the end of 2025 [3]. - In Q3 2025, the company generated 4.365 billion kWh of electricity, a year-on-year increase of 9.3% and a sequential increase of 43.4% [8]. Integrated Coal and Power Operations - The company continues to advance its coal-electricity integration strategy, with several power plants already in operation and new projects under construction. This integration is expected to enhance profitability and risk resilience [4]. - The company forecasts net profits attributable to the parent company of 2.4 billion yuan, 2.43 billion yuan, and 2.6 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7.7X, 7.6X, and 7.1X [4][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning [5][3] Core Views - Li Ning's offline sales experienced significant fluctuations in Q3 2025, with a high single-digit percentage decline in offline channels, while e-commerce sales showed robust growth with a high single-digit percentage increase [1] - The children's clothing segment, Li Ning YOUNG, continued its rapid growth, with an estimated double-digit growth in revenue for Q3 2025, supported by the opening of 12 new stores [2] - The company expects its 2025 revenue to remain flat year-on-year, with a projected decline of 22% in net profit attributable to the parent company [2] - Li Ning is focusing on Olympic-themed marketing activities as the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics approaches, which may lead to a new development phase for the brand [2] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2025 is projected at 28,919 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.8% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2,366 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 21.5% [4] - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) to be 0.92 yuan for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18 times [4][3] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline to 8.7% in 2025 [12] Sales Performance - The report indicates that the wholesale channel saw a high single-digit percentage decline in sales, while the direct sales channel also experienced a medium single-digit percentage decline [9] - E-commerce sales grew at a high single-digit percentage, showing improvement compared to the previous quarter [9] - The inventory turnover ratio is expected to be between 5-6 at the end of Q3 2025, with a potential recovery to 4-5 by the end of the year [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company has shown improvement in quarterly non-recurring performance, with a significant increase in net profit for Q3 2025 compared to the previous year [1] - The company is advancing its special materials projects, focusing on high-end product development and production capabilities [2] - The downstream market is expected to improve, with increasing demand for specialized pipes in the oil and gas sector [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.284 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 392 million yuan, a decrease of 4.6% [1] - The third quarter of 2025 saw a net profit of 138 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.15% [1] - The company’s projected net profits for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 579 million yuan, 665 million yuan, and 759 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.5, 8.3, and 7.3 [3][4] Product Development and Market Position - The company has a production capacity of 1 million tons of specialized pipes, with a strong market presence in various segments such as oil pipes and high-pressure boiler pipes [2] - The special materials project is progressing, with several production lines entering trial production phases, aiming to expand into high-end materials [2] Market Demand Outlook - The oil and gas pipe market is expected to stabilize and optimize, with increased demand anticipated in unconventional oil and gas resource development [3] - Firepower investment in 2025 is projected to reach 102.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.5%, which is expected to positively impact the boiler pipe market [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7]. Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue reaching 27.071 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.28%, and a net profit of 1.223 billion yuan, up 14.61% year-on-year. However, the net profit for Q3 2025 saw a slight decline of 8.19% due to increased management expenses and insufficient new capacity conversion [1][2]. - The company is strategically positioned to benefit from the growth in AI PCB and optical communication sectors, with a focus on high-end PCB production and expansion into the optical chip and module markets [2][4]. - The company has a comprehensive investment plan of 1 billion USD for Multek to enhance high-end PCB capacity, aiming to capture market opportunities in AI servers [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 27.071 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.223 billion yuan. Q3 2025 revenue was 10.115 billion yuan, showing a 2.82% year-on-year increase, while net profit decreased by 8.19% [1]. - The revenue from the new energy business for the first nine months of 2025 was 7.520 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 22.08% and accounting for 27.78% of total revenue [2]. Business Segments - The soft board business benefited from increased demand for new consumer electronics, while the hard board business saw revenue and profit growth driven by AI demand for high-layer and HDI boards [2]. - The company is focusing on AI PCB and optical communication, with plans to expand its product offerings in optical chips and modules, leveraging the acquisition of Solstice Optoelectronics [2][4]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 42.060 billion yuan, 60.004 billion yuan, and 73.917 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.4%, 42.7%, and 23.2% [4]. - The net profit forecast for the same years is 2.197 billion yuan, 6.042 billion yuan, and 8.011 billion yuan, with significant growth rates of 102.4%, 175.0%, and 32.6% [4].