证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 06 03 年 月 日 房地产开发 2025W22：本周新房成交同比-11.9%，二手房同比+8.9% 信用债：根据 wind 统计数据，本周（5.26-6.1）共发行房企信用债 5 只， 环比增加 2 只；发行规模共计 53.10 亿元，环比增加 15.11 亿元，总偿还 量 91.45 亿元，环比减少 5.3 亿元，净融资额为-38.35 亿元，环比增加 20.41 亿元。主体评级方面，本周房企债券发行已披露的主体评级以 AAA （83.1%）为主要构成。债券类型方面，本周房企债券发行以一般中期票 据（81.0%）为主要构成。债券期限方面，本周以 1-3 年（81.0%）的债 券为主。 投资建议：维持行业"增持"评级。我们认为重点关注房地产相关股票有 以下理由：1、政策受基本面倒逼进入深水区，如我们 2022、2023 年在报 告中反复阐述，认为本轮最终政策力度超过 2008、2014 年，而现在尚在 途中。2、地产作为早周期指标，具备指向性作用，配置地产相当于配置经 济风向标。3、行业竞争格局改善逻辑依旧适用，拿地和销售表现优异的依 然是头 ...

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 06 03 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 市场下行空间有限 今日概览 重磅研报 | | | 【宏观】5 月 PMI 低位回升的背后——20250531 【金融工程】市场下行空间有限——20250602 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：本周增长与趋势指标弱化——20250601 【固定收益】化债、调整与转型——各地 2025 年 Q1 经济财政债务盘点 ——20250602 【固定收益】六月机会大于风险——20250602 【固定收益】央行呵护资金，存单保持平稳——流动性和机构行为跟踪 ——20250531 【固定收益】从城投年报看化债四大成效——基于城投年报的分析—— 20250530 【银行】25Q1 信贷投向：住房贷款同比、环比明显多增——20250601 【有色金属】兴业银锡（000426.SZ）-手握多座世界级矿山，银锡龙头 未来可期——20250602 研究视点 【计算机】国内智驾整车军团成型——20250602 【计算机】稳定币关键政策落地，全球化债时代新宠——20250602 【煤炭】印尼 2025 年原煤产量或将下降——20250601 【海 ...

证券研究报告 | 首次覆盖报告 gszqdatemark 2025 06 02 年 月 日 兴业银锡（000426.SZ） 手握多座世界级矿山，银锡龙头未来可期 立足银、锡、锌，公司资源版图由内蒙走向全球。公司上市以来经历了 2011、2014-2016、2023-至今三轮矿山资源扩充。立足银、锌、锡资源压 舱石，目前旗下银漫、乾金达、融冠已具备三座亿级利润的大型矿山，成 为支撑公司高成长的现金奶牛。2023 年起，公司陆续完成了博盛矿业（黄 金）、宇邦矿业（（银锌锌）收购，托管大股东旗下布敦银根矿业（银锌锌）， 拟要约收购大西洋锡业（锡），完成新一轮资源版图扩充。 手握三座世界级银矿，扬帆起航正当时。目前子公司银漫矿业拥有白银资 源量 8058 吨，平均品位 185g/吨；宇邦矿业保有白银资源量 1.79 万吨， 平均品位 125g/吨，单体银矿储量排名位列亚洲第一，全球第五；托管大 股东的布敦银根矿业拥有白银资源量 1.1 万吨，平均品位 158g/吨。根据 世界白银协会披露的全球前十大在产矿山，剔除第一大 KGHM 后（资源量 8.3 万吨，平均品位 58.3g/吨）平均资源量 7100 吨，平均品位 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a gross margin of over 20.5% in Q1 2025, exceeding expectations despite a significant decrease in sales volume [1]. - The company anticipates delivering between 123,000 to 128,000 vehicles in Q2, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.3% to 17.9% [2]. - The launch of the first pure electric SUV, i8, is scheduled for July, with the VLA model also expected to be released [2][4]. Financial Performance - In Q1, the company sold 93,000 vehicles, with revenue reaching 25.93 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1% [1]. - The Q1 net profit attributable to shareholders was 650 million RMB, with a net profit margin of 2.5% [1]. - The company projects total revenues of 155.5 billion RMB, 197.9 billion RMB, and 238.3 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][6]. Future Outlook - The company plans to introduce more affordable MPV and sedan models based on market demand after the launch of the L series and i series [2]. - The MEGA Home model has been well-received, with over 90% of MEGA orders being for this version, indicating strong market insight and product definition capabilities [3]. - The company is expanding its supercharging network, with 2,328 supercharging stations and 12,689 supercharging piles nationwide, enhancing the appeal of its electric vehicles [4]. Sales and Production Forecast - The company expects to sell approximately 580,000, 750,000, and 870,000 vehicles in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][6]. - The gross margin is projected to be around 19% in Q2 due to increased promotional efforts [2]. Valuation - The target market capitalization is set at 280.9 billion RMB, with a target price of approximately 131 HKD per share, corresponding to a 25x P/E ratio for 2025 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [3][6] Core Views - Xiaomi Group achieved record high revenue and profit in Q1 2025, with total revenue of 111.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.4%, and adjusted net profit of 10.7 billion yuan, up 64.5% year-on-year [1][3] - The smartphone segment regained the top market share in China, with a global shipment of 41.8 million units, a 3% increase year-on-year, and a global market share of 14.1% [1][3] - The IoT business is focusing on high-end and international expansion, with revenue reaching 32.3 billion yuan and a gross margin of 25.2% in Q1 2025 [2][3] - The automotive segment reported revenue of 18.6 billion yuan, with the new SUV model YU7 expected to become a bestseller upon pricing announcement [2][3] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Xiaomi Group are 486.7 billion yuan in 2025, 634.5 billion yuan in 2026, and 764.8 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 33%, 30%, and 21% respectively [3][5] - Adjusted net profit for the main consumer electronics business is expected to be 41.9 billion yuan in 2025, 52.0 billion yuan in 2026, and 61.1 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 25%, 24%, and 18% respectively [3][5] - The report anticipates a significant increase in automotive adjusted net profit, projecting a turnaround to 10.1 billion yuan in 2026 and 20.6 billion yuan in 2027 [3][5] Key Financial Metrics - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, including revenue, adjusted net profit, and earnings per share (EPS) for the years 2023 to 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [5][13] - The expected adjusted EPS is projected to be 1.6 yuan in 2025, 2.4 yuan in 2026, and 3.1 yuan in 2027 [3][5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 29 in 2025 to 15 in 2027, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [3][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a gross margin of over 20.5% in Q1 2025, exceeding expectations despite a significant decrease in sales volume [1]. - The company anticipates delivering between 123,000 to 128,000 vehicles in Q2, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.3% to 17.9% [2]. - The launch of the first pure electric SUV, i8, is scheduled for July, with a subsequent model, i6, expected in September [2]. Financial Performance - In Q1, the company sold 93,000 vehicles, with revenue reaching 25.93 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1% [1]. - The Q1 net profit attributable to shareholders was 650 million RMB, with a net profit margin of 2.5% [1]. - The company projects total revenues of 155.5 billion RMB, 197.9 billion RMB, and 238.3 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][6]. Product Development - The MEGA Home model has been well-received, with over 90% of MEGA orders being for the Home version, indicating strong market insight and product definition capabilities [3]. - The VLA model, which enhances the driving experience through advanced AI, is set to be released alongside the i8 in July [4]. Market Position - The company has established a robust supercharging network with 2,328 stations and 12,689 charging piles nationwide, enhancing the appeal of its electric vehicles [4]. - The company aims to introduce more competitively priced MPVs and sedans based on market demand after the launch of its L series and i series models [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [3][6] Core Views - Xiaomi Group achieved record high revenue and profit in Q1 2025, with total revenue of 111.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.4%, and adjusted net profit of 10.7 billion yuan, up 64.5% year-on-year [1][3] - The smartphone segment regained the top market share in China, with revenue of 50.6 billion yuan and a gross margin of 12.4% in Q1 2025, while global smartphone shipments reached 41.8 million units, a 3% increase [1][3] - The IoT business continues to focus on high-end and international markets, generating 32.3 billion yuan in revenue with a gross margin of 25.2% in Q1 2025 [2][3] - The automotive segment reported revenue of 18.6 billion yuan, with the new SUV model YU7 expected to become a bestseller upon pricing announcement [2][3] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Xiaomi Group are 486.7 billion yuan, 634.5 billion yuan, and 764.8 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 33%, 30%, and 21% [3][5] - Adjusted net profit for the core consumer electronics business is expected to be 41.9 billion yuan, 52.0 billion yuan, and 61.1 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 25%, 24%, and 18% [3][5] - The report anticipates a target price of 60 HKD for Xiaomi Group based on a P/E ratio of 20x for 2026 estimates [3][6]

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 gszqdatemark 2025 06 02 年 月 日 房地产 5 月百强房企月度销售报告：5 月市场表现不温不火，权益销售额环比微增 2% 4 月市场小阳春后明显降温，5 月因五一假期及城市新增供应量下降，市场表现 不温不火，百强房企销售金额较 4 月微增。从累计情况看，1-5 月 TOP100 房企实 现操盘口径销售金额 13137.1 亿元，同比降低 7.0%，较上月累计同比降低 0.2pct； 权益口径销售金额为 10346.4 亿元，同比降低 6.6%，较上月累计同比降低 1.0pct。 从 5 月单月情况看，TOP100 房企实现单月操盘口径销售金额 2955.5 亿元，同比 降低 7.8%，环比增长 3.8%；权益口径销售金额 2316.7 亿元，同比降低 10.0%， 环比增长 2.4%。 1-5 月 TOP31-50 和 TOP21-30 两个梯队的房企累计操盘销售额同比正增，其 他梯队房企保持负增。从 2025 年 1-5 月操盘口径销售金额来看，增幅最大的是 TOP31-50 房企，同比增长 4.8%；TOP21-30 房企排名第 2，同比增长 0.6%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Views - The coal mining sector is currently facing a prolonged downturn in prices, with market sentiment at a low point. However, there are signs of potential recovery as some production capacities are experiencing losses, indicating a gradual emergence of cost support. The industry is awaiting favorable policy changes to restore confidence [2][10] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The coal mining market is experiencing a narrow adjustment with slight supply tightening in major production areas. Downstream demand remains primarily driven by essential needs [13] - Port inventories are continuously decreasing, but there is still a lack of upward momentum in prices due to limited demand from downstream buyers [14] - The shipping market has seen a slight increase in the number of vessels at northern ports, indicating some recovery in logistics [27] Key Companies - Recommended stocks include China Shenhua (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH), and Xinji Energy (601918.SH), all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [9] - China Shenhua is highlighted as a central enterprise with strong performance, while companies like Qinfa and New Hope Energy are noted for their potential turnaround [10] Price Movements - As of May 30, the price of thermal coal at the port is reported at 620 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week. However, the market is characterized by a lack of strong demand from power plants, leading to a cautious purchasing attitude [37] - Coking coal prices are under pressure, with significant declines observed in various grades, indicating a bearish market sentiment [40][53] Market Outlook - The report emphasizes that the coal industry will maintain its critical role in China's energy system during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The overall supply-demand balance is expected to remain stable, with a potential increase in industry concentration [37]

行情回顾（2025.5.26~2025.5.30）： 中信煤炭指数 3,258.46 点，下跌 0.54%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.54pct，位列 中信板块涨跌幅榜第 23 位。 深陷价格下行泥潭已久，市场持续探底如同无尽长夜，情绪亦降至冰点，黎 明前的黑暗尤为煎熬。但转折的契机正在裂缝中透出微光，部分产能已陷入 亏损，成本支撑逐步显现，只待政策甘霖便可破土重生。 重点领域分析： 增持（维持） 行业走势 -20% -12% -4% 4% 12% 20% 2024/04 2024/07 2024/11 2025/03 煤炭开采 沪深300 作者 gszqdatemark 】 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2025 06 02 年 月 日 煤炭开采 亟需政策春风，扭转预期，重燃信心 执业证书编号：S0680524100001 邮箱：gaoziming@gszq.com 研究助理 廖岚琪 执业证书编号：S0680124070012 邮箱：liaolanqi@gszq.com 相关研究 1、《煤炭开采：瑞众人寿举牌中国神华 H，长线资金 视角分析煤炭板块投资价值》 2025-03-26 2、《煤炭开采：价格下行& ...