Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials sector [4] Core Views - The construction materials sector is experiencing weak fundamentals, with a focus on policy catalysts during the window period [1] - The government is expected to alleviate fiscal pressure through increased local government debt issuance, which may support effective investment and accelerate municipal projects [2] - The glass industry is facing supply-demand contradictions, but self-regulated production cuts in photovoltaic glass may ease these issues [2] - The cement industry is in a phase of weak recovery, with increased production cuts and a focus on supply-side improvements [2] - Structural opportunities are emerging in the fiberglass sector as prices stabilize and demand from wind power increases [2] Summary by Sections Market Overview - From October 13 to October 17, 2025, the construction materials sector (SW) declined by 2.17%, with cement down 1.23%, glass manufacturing down 1.65%, fiberglass down 3.43%, and renovation materials down 2.50% [1][11] - The net capital inflow for the construction materials sector was -2.252 billion yuan [1] Cement Industry Tracking - As of October 17, 2025, the national cement price index was 343.2 yuan/ton, up 0.23% week-on-week, with cement output at 2.5285 million tons, up 7.71% [3][16] - The capacity utilization rate for cement clinker kilns was 54.36%, down 2.87 percentage points from the previous week [16] Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass as of October 16, 2025, was 1300.97 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.87% [6] - Inventory levels for float glass increased significantly, indicating a need for market adjustments [6] Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The fiberglass price war has ended, with prices stabilizing and demand from wind power projects expected to rise [2][7] Consumer Building Materials - Consumer building materials are benefiting from favorable second-hand housing transactions and consumption stimulus policies, with significant potential for market share growth [2] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - North New Materials (Buy) [8] - Weixing New Materials (Hold) [8] - Sankeshu (Buy) [8] - China Jushi (Buy) [8] - Yinlong Co. (Buy) [8] - Puren Co. (Buy) [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook [6] Core Views - Chow Tai Fook's FY2026Q2 performance shows a positive trend with a 4.1% year-on-year growth in group RSV, aligning with expectations [1] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of approximately 3% for FY2026, with a projected net profit increase of 32% to HKD 7.8 billion [3] Summary by Sections Domestic Performance - In FY2026Q2, Chow Tai Fook's same-store sales in mainland China turned positive, with a 7.6% year-on-year increase in direct same-store sales [1] - The average selling price of gold jewelry increased by 23% year-on-year, driven by a significant rise in gold prices, which were up 46% compared to the same period in 2024 [1][2] - Excluding price factors, same-store sales volume declined by 8.6%, but the decline was less severe than in Q1, attributed to new product launches and the optimization of existing product lines [2] E-commerce Growth - Chow Tai Fook's e-commerce sales in mainland China grew by 28.1% year-on-year, accounting for 6.7% of total sales and 15.5% of total volume [2] Hong Kong and Macau Performance - In FY2026Q2, RSV in Hong Kong and Macau increased by 11.4%, with same-store sales growth of 6.2% in Hong Kong and 17.3% in Macau [3] Financial Projections - The report forecasts Chow Tai Fook's net profit for FY2026 to reach HKD 7.8 billion, with a PE ratio of 21 times [3] - Projected net profits for FY2026-2028 are HKD 78.06 billion, HKD 88.30 billion, and HKD 98.78 billion respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4]. Core Insights - India is signing more coal power procurement agreements to meet the growing electricity demand, with over 17GW of coal power capacity entering various stages of contract processes [2][3]. - The report highlights the expected increase in coal power capacity in India from 210GW to 307GW by 2035, a growth of 46% [3]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of certain companies in the coal sector, recommending investments in companies like Lu'an Huanneng, Yanzhou Coal, and Jin Control Coal [3]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining - The report notes a significant increase in coal prices, with European ARA port coal prices rising to $96 per ton (+6.19%) and Newcastle port coal prices reaching $111.45 per ton (+6.60%) [1][34]. - India plans to sign at least 7GW of coal power procurement agreements in the coming months to address peak electricity demand [2]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Lu'an Huanneng, Yanzhou Coal, Jin Control Coal, and China Shenhua, with a focus on companies showing strong performance and potential for growth [3][6]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like Huayang Co. and Gansu Energy Chemical for future growth opportunities [3]. Industry Trends - The coal mining industry is expected to experience a rebound in demand, driven by India's increasing reliance on coal for electricity generation [3][37]. - The report indicates that despite the push for renewable energy, coal will remain a significant part of India's energy mix for the foreseeable future [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the steel industry [5]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a shift in focus from demand to supply as countries enter a mature industrialization phase. The overall economy is expected to remain stable, with potential for recovery in the steel sector [2][4]. - The report highlights the importance of government fiscal policies in influencing trade balances and commodity prices, particularly gold, which is seen as a counter to the U.S. dollar's credit [2]. - The report emphasizes the need for steel mills to implement production cuts effectively to stabilize the market and improve valuations of certain companies within the industry [2][4]. Supply Analysis - The average daily pig iron production has slightly decreased to 2.409 million tons, with a decline in rebar and hot-rolled coil production [11]. - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces across 247 steel mills is reported at 90.3%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous period [16]. - The total inventory of five major steel products has decreased by 1.2% week-on-week, indicating a tightening supply [23]. Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption of five major steel products has rebounded by 16.5% week-on-week, although it remains down 2.0% year-on-year [47]. - Rebar demand has shown a significant increase of 43.5% week-on-week, while overall building material transactions have decreased by 6.3% [37][38]. Price and Profitability - The report notes a slight decline in the current steel prices, with the Myspic comprehensive steel price index down by 1.5% week-on-week [69]. - The current profit margins for long-process rebar and hot-rolled products are negative, indicating pressure on profitability [70]. Key Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - Hualing Steel (华菱钢铁) [8] - Nanjing Steel (南钢股份) [8] - Baosteel (宝钢股份) [8] - New Steel (新钢股份) [8] - Jiuli Special Materials (久立特材) [8] - Yongjin Co., Ltd. (甬金股份) [8] - Changbao Steel (常宝股份) [8] - Wujin Stainless Steel (武进不锈) [2][8].

Investment Rating - Maintain "Add" rating for the agricultural sector [5] Core Views - The first pet Double Eleven sales report has been released, indicating potential catalysts for the sector [1][12] - The trend of domestic substitution and premiumization in the pet food market remains strong, with most top brands being domestic [2][13] - The current valuation of pig farming is relatively low, with opportunities in low-cost pig farming companies [3][15] - The poultry market shows mixed signals, with white feather chicken prices declining while yellow feather chicken prices are increasing [15][30] - The commercialization of genetically modified varieties is expected to enhance growth potential in the agricultural sector [15] Summary by Sections Pet Industry - The top ten brands in the pet food sector are predominantly domestic, with high-end brands like Xianlang and Fregate leading the sales [2][13] - The Double Eleven event is ongoing, with expectations for new product launches and sales data to be closely monitored [14] Pig Farming - The national price for lean pigs is 10.98 yuan/kg, down 3.6% from last week [3][16] - The average wholesale price of pork is 18.03 yuan/kg, down 2.4% [16][24] - Self-breeding pig farming shows a loss of 244.7 yuan per head, indicating a decrease in profitability [20][21] Poultry Farming - The price of white feather chickens is 6.87 yuan/kg, down 0.1%, while chicken product prices average 8.6 yuan/kg, down 0.6% [15][34] - The price of meat chicken chicks has increased by 2.2% to 3.29 yuan each [15][30] - Yellow feather chicken prices have shown a 1.9% increase, suggesting seasonal price elasticity opportunities [15][40] Agricultural Products - The approval of genetically modified varieties is set to enter commercial sales, with potential for growth in the sector [15] - The fluctuation in agricultural product prices is expected to continue, with leading feed companies likely to replace smaller competitors [15][49] Commodity Prices - Domestic corn prices have decreased by 2.0% to 2263.14 yuan/ton [50] - Soybean meal prices have dropped by 0.7% to 2993.43 yuan/ton [68] - The price of imported fish meal has decreased by 3.7% to 13067.39 yuan/ton [80]

- The timing radar six-dimensional model is based on a multi-dimensional timing framework, selecting 21 indicators from liquidity, economic aspects, valuation, capital flow, technical aspects, and crowding to generate a comprehensive timing score ranging from [-1,1][1][6][8] - Liquidity dimension includes factors such as monetary direction, monetary strength, credit direction, and credit strength, with scores reflecting signals like monetary policy direction and short-term market interest rate deviations[10][13][16][19] - Economic dimension includes growth direction and strength factors based on PMI data, as well as inflation direction and strength factors derived from CPI and PPI data, capturing economic trends and inflation expectations[21][24][28][31] - Valuation dimension includes Shiller ERP, PB, and AIAE indicators, measuring equity risk premium, price-to-book ratio, and aggregate investor allocation to equities, respectively, to assess market valuation attractiveness[34][36][40] - Capital flow dimension includes domestic indicators like margin trading increment and turnover trends, and foreign indicators such as China sovereign CDS spread and overseas risk aversion index, reflecting capital flow dynamics[42][45][49][52] - Technical dimension includes price trend and new high-new low indicators, capturing market trends and reversal signals based on moving averages and constituent stock performance[54][56] - Crowding dimension includes derivative signals like implied premium, VIX, SKEW, and convertible bond pricing deviation, reflecting market sentiment and overreaction signals[60][61][66][68]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, fiscal revenue slightly rebounded while fiscal expenditure continued to decline. The fourth - quarter bond supply pressure is limited [1][8]. - The increase in general budget revenue in September was mainly due to the rise in tax revenue growth and the expansion of the decline in non - tax revenue. Tax revenue such as income tax, VAT, and securities transaction stamp duty had high year - on - year growth rates. Government fund revenue turned slightly positive year - on - year [1][2][11]. - In terms of expenditure, the expenditure of the first - account (general public budget) increased slightly year - on - year, while that of the second - account (government funds) decreased significantly. Traditional infrastructure expenditure continued to contract, and social security expenditure maintained a high growth rate [3][19]. - Cumulatively, the fiscal revenue growth rate is close to the annual budget growth rate, and there is a divergence in the expenditure of the two accounts. The fourth - quarter government bond supply is relatively small even if the 500 billion yuan of remaining quota is issued [4][25][29]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fiscal Revenue - **General Situation of Fiscal Revenue**: In September, the year - on - year growth rate of broad fiscal revenue was 3.2%, up from the previous value of 0.3%. The general public budget revenue in September had a year - on - year growth of 2.6% (previous value: 2.0%), with tax revenue growing by 8.7% (previous value: 3.4%) and non - tax revenue dropping by 11.4% (previous value: - 3.8%) [1][8][11]. - **Tax Revenue**: In September, the year - on - year growth rate of tax revenue was 8.7%. Among the four major taxes, corporate income tax grew by 19.6% year - on - year, individual income tax by 16.7%, VAT by 7.6% (contributing the most to the month's tax revenue growth, up to 3.24%), and securities transaction stamp duty by 342.4%, driven by the high activity of the stock market [2][13][14]. - **Government Fund Revenue**: In September, the year - on - year growth rate of government fund revenue was 5.6% (previous value: - 5.7%), and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate was - 0.5%. There may be a need to boost the year - end government fund revenue [2][17]. Fiscal Expenditure - **General Situation of Fiscal Expenditure**: In September, the year - on - year growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure was 2.3%, down from the previous value of 6.0%. The general public budget expenditure had a year - on - year growth of 3.08% (previous value: 0.82%), and the government fund expenditure had a year - on - year growth of 0.4% (previous value: 19.8%) [1][3][8]. - **Expenditure Structure**: Traditional infrastructure expenditure continued to contract, with an overall year - on - year growth rate of - 1.2% (previous value: - 10.1%), showing significant internal differentiation. Expenditure on science and technology grew by 26.6% year - on - year, and social security expenditure by 8.8% [3][19]. Cumulative Fiscal Situation - **Revenue**: From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of general public budget revenue was 0.5%, tax revenue was 0.7%, and non - tax revenue was - 0.4%. The fiscal revenue growth rate reached the initial budget (0.1%), but the improvement of the fiscal revenue structure fell short of expectations. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of government fund revenue was - 0.5%, lower than the initial budget of 0.7% [4][25]. - **Expenditure**: From January to September, the fiscal expenditure growth rate was 3.1%, lower than the annual budget growth rate of 4.4%. The growth rate of government fund expenditure was 23.9%, slightly higher than the annual budget growth rate of 23.1%. The expenditure rhythm of the first - account was relatively slow, and the second - account had an early - stage expenditure boost, with limited space for further efforts from September to December [4][25]. Fourth - Quarter Government Bond Supply - The peak of government bond supply has passed. According to the annual budget, the remaining government bond supply in the fourth quarter is about 2 trillion yuan. Even if the 500 billion yuan of remaining quota is issued in the fourth quarter, the net financing of government bonds will still be significantly lower than the same period last year [4][29].

Revenue Insights - In the first nine months of 2025, general fiscal revenue reached 16.39 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%[1] - In September alone, general fiscal revenue was 1.57 trillion, growing by 2.58% year-on-year, an increase of 0.55 percentage points from August[3] - Tax revenue in September was 1.16 trillion, up 8.7% year-on-year, marking a 5.3 percentage point increase from the previous month[3] Expenditure Trends - Total general fiscal expenditure for the first nine months was 20.81 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.1%[1] - September's general fiscal expenditure was 2.87 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 3.08%, up 2.26 percentage points from August[3] - Government fund expenditure in September was 1.23 trillion, a slight year-on-year increase of 0.37%, but down 19.4% from the previous month[11] Fiscal Challenges - Non-tax revenue has seen a continuous decline for five months, with September's figure at 409.9 billion, down 11.4% year-on-year[3] - The government fund budget may face a shortfall of approximately 370 billion due to pressure on land transfer income[5] - The Ministry of Finance announced a continuation of 500 billion in local government debt management, with an additional 100 billion compared to 2024[2] Future Outlook - The total deficit for 2026 is expected to be at least as high as this year, with a deficit rate likely to remain around 4%[5] - There are indications of an accelerating economic downturn, necessitating timely policy adjustments to stimulate growth[4] - The focus for the fiscal sector should be on expediting existing policies and increasing tangible work output[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated impressive performance in the first three quarters of 2025, with a projected net profit of approximately 1.61 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 15.9% [1]. - The acquisition of Yuefeng Environmental has significantly enhanced the company's overall strength and competitive position, with a daily waste incineration capacity of 97,590 tons, ranking it among the top three in the industry [2]. - The company is actively improving operational efficiency through its "incineration+" strategy, which has led to substantial growth in its heating supply business and enhanced cash flow [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve a net profit of approximately 2.01 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.6% [5]. - Revenue for 2025 is projected to be around 13.84 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.5% [5]. Operational Efficiency - The company has improved its operational efficiency, achieving a capacity utilization rate of approximately 115% for its waste incineration projects [3]. - The heating supply business has seen a significant increase, with external heating supply reaching 944,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 41.6% [3]. Accounts Receivable Management - The company is focusing on enhancing accounts receivable management, aiming to recover at least 2 billion yuan of outstanding receivables in 2025 [4]. - In the first half of 2025, the company successfully recovered over 1.15 billion yuan of accounts receivable [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady growth in net profit despite a slight decline in revenue, primarily due to operational optimizations and rising metal prices [1][2]. - The management has demonstrated strong cash flow improvement, with a significant increase in operating cash flow by 67.3% year-on-year [2]. - The company's resource recovery segment has been strategically enhanced, focusing on metals like copper, lead, and nickel, which are expected to boost profitability due to rising metal prices [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 10.16 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.3% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 15.2% to 650 million yuan [1]. - The gross margin for the same period was 17.8%, up by 3.9 percentage points, and the net margin was 7.7%, up by 2.0 percentage points [2]. - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 750 million yuan, 1.03 billion yuan, and 1.25 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.2, 11.8, and 9.7 [4][5]. Operational Highlights - The company has optimized its procurement channels and product structure, enhancing its competitive edge in the resource recovery sector [3]. - The environmental operations, including waste incineration power generation, have been stable, with 2.323 million tons of waste processed and 660 million kWh of electricity generated in the first half of 2025 [3].