Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the textile and apparel sector, including Anta Sports, Bosideng, and Chow Tai Fook [5][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a shift in consumer preferences towards practicality and self-satisfaction, with younger consumers favoring experiential and personalized consumption [1][12]. - The outdoor and ancient gold jewelry segments are experiencing significant growth, driven by changing consumer behaviors and preferences [2][51]. Summary by Sections New Consumption Trends - The rise of "pragmatism" and "self-satisfaction" is evident as consumers become more rational in their purchasing decisions, moving away from traditional marketing [1][13]. - Young consumers are increasingly drawn to interactive and personalized shopping experiences, prioritizing comfort and natural materials [1][18]. Demand Trend Analysis - The outdoor sports market is expanding rapidly, with the market size for outdoor footwear and apparel reaching 45 billion yuan in 2023, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 20% [22]. - The ancient gold jewelry market has seen its size grow from 13 billion yuan in 2018 to 157.3 billion yuan in 2023, indicating strong demand among younger consumers [51][56]. Competitive Factors - Companies are focusing on product innovation and brand storytelling to attract consumers, with significant marketing investments noted among leading brands [3][41]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a robust channel strategy, with leading companies upgrading store images and enhancing digital integration [4][60]. Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include Anta Sports for its outdoor brand matrix, Bosideng for its functional apparel, and Chow Tai Fook for its strong brand power in the jewelry sector, with respective price-to-earnings (PE) ratios projected for 2025 [5][6].

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 05 19 年 月 日 量化专题报告 美联储流动性的量价解构与资产配置应用 结合数量和价格维度构建立体全面的美元流动性刻画体系。官方流动性作 为信用货币体系核心，通过央行政策直接影响货币传导和融资成本，位于 全球流动性金字塔的顶端。次贷危机后各国央行大规模刺激使流动性成为 主导大类资产价格的核心变量，尤以美元流动性为甚。传统流动性分析多 关注总资产负债表规模与政策利率调整，考虑到其局限性，本文进一步对 美联储资产负债表进行拆解，并引入前瞻性更强的预期信号和公告意外， 以刻画更为全面且及时的美元流动性变化。 数量维度：净流动性和联储信用支持。美联储资产端核心项目在持有证券， 可反映量化宽松政策下的资产购买计划，在次贷危机后的多轮大规模资产 购买下，持有证券占比已超过 95%；负债端可反映美联储资金来源，其中 逆回购和 TGA 可视为准备金的"蓄水池"。从联储资产负债表中拆分得到 两个指标：1）净流动性：总资产-TGA-逆回购，包括流通中现金和银行准 备金，是货币乘数作用下货币供应的基础，其增减直接决定市场中可用于 交易和信贷活动的货币量，根据净流动 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业专题研究 gszqdatemark 2025 05 20 年 月 日 房地产开发 2024 开发房企年报综述：行业全面亏损，头部房企依然具备显著竞争优势 2024 年，开发房企逐步走出结转高峰，行业整体营收规模开始萎缩；盈利能力不 断弱化及房价下跌带来减值压力，行业出现大面积亏损；房企在融资销售两端承 压下，在手现金也延续较快下降速度。我们统计了全行业 168 家开发房企财务数 据。2024 年，开发房企整体实现营收 4.33 万亿元（人民币，同比-19.2%，下同）； 实现净利润-3763 亿元（较 2023 年-19 亿元大幅下行）；实现归母净利润-3740 亿 元（-771.4%）。利润率方面，2024 年开发房企整体毛利率为 15.3%（-1.9pct）； 归母净利润率为-8.6%（-7.8pct）。期内，168 家开发房企实现归母净利润为正有 68 家，亏损有 100 家；归母净利润增长的仅 38 家，下降的有 130 家。流动性方 面，期末开发房企在手现金规模为 1.63 万亿元（-19.4%）。 重点国央企在营收、盈利等方面承压，但相较行业整体依然具备显著竞争优势。 我们选 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2025 05 20 年 月 日 倍轻松（688793.SH） 24 年盈利水平转正，海外增速更快 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报和 2025 年一季报。公司 2024 年实现营业 总收入 10.9 亿元，同比-14.9%；实现归母净利润 0.1 亿元，同比+120.2%。 24Q4 单季营业总收入为 2.5 亿元，同比-25.4%；归母净利润为-0.03 亿 元，同比+91.8%。25Q1 实现营业收入 2.0 亿元，同比-32.8%；实现归母 净利润-0.02 亿元，同比-111.7%。 国内销售有所下滑，头部按摩产品表现优秀。分区域：24 年公司国内、国 外收入分别为收入 10.0 亿元、0.8 亿元，同比-16.4%、+9.5%。国内收入 有所下滑，主要系减少抖音推广等投入以及直营新开门店带来的收入无法 覆盖闭店导致的缺口；国外收入增长主要系加大线上独立站的投入。后续 公司将持续探索"科技产品+速效按摩服务"的新商业模式。分产品：24 年公司眼部、颈部、头皮+头部、肩部、腰背部、其他收入分别为 1.3 亿 元、1.3 亿元、2.4 亿元、3.5 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业月报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 20 年 月 日 煤炭开采 有效供应环降，需求望迎改善，煤炭终迎年初至今配置良机 事件：国家统计局公布 2025 年 4 月份能源生产情况。 4 月原煤产量环比下降 5000 万吨。据国家统计局数据，4 月份，规上工业原 煤产量 3.9 亿吨，同比增长 3.8%，增速比 3 月份回落 5.8 个百分点；日均产 量 1298 万吨。1—4 月份，规上工业原煤产量 15.8 亿吨，同比增长 6.6%。 展望 2025 年，考虑到 2024 年上半年山西集中减产影响以及我们对明年煤矿 产能投放情况的梳理，我们预计在主产区均能顺利完成产量目标的理想情况 下（不考虑表外转表内、增产不增量等现象），2025 年产量净增量仅 5500~6000 万吨，同比增长约 1.2~1.3%，增速较 2024 年继续放缓。 4 月原煤进口 3783 万吨，同比-16.41%。2025 年 4 月份，我国进口煤炭 3782.5 万吨，较去年同期的 4525.2 万吨减少 742.7 万吨，同比下降 16.41%； 较 3 月份的 3873.2 万吨减少 90.7 万吨 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Buy" [6] Core Viewpoints - The coal mining industry is expected to see improved demand and effective supply reduction, presenting a good investment opportunity since the beginning of the year [1] - In April 2025, the raw coal production decreased by 50 million tons month-on-month, with a total output of 390 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [12][13] - The report anticipates a net increase in coal production of only 55 to 60 million tons in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 1.2% to 1.3%, indicating a continued slowdown compared to 2024 [1][12] Production Summary - In April 2025, the raw coal production was 390 million tons, with a daily average of 12.98 million tons [12][13] - The cumulative raw coal production from January to April 2025 reached 1.58 billion tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [12] Import Summary - In April 2025, coal imports were 37.83 million tons, a decrease of 16.41% year-on-year and a 2.34% decrease month-on-month [2][16] - From January to April 2025, total coal imports amounted to 152.67 million tons, down 5.3% year-on-year [16] - The report forecasts that the total annual coal imports for 2025 may be around 385 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 4.9% [2][16] Demand Summary - In April 2025, the industrial power generation was 711.1 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 0.9% [3][19] - The industrial thermal power generation saw a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, remaining consistent with the previous month [3][19] - Renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power showed significant growth, with wind power increasing by 12.7% and solar power by 16.7% year-on-year [3][19][32] Investment Recommendations - Key recommended stocks include China Shenhua (H+A), China Coal Energy (H+A), and China Qinfa, among others [5][37] - The report emphasizes the importance of performance in stock selection, highlighting companies like Xinjie Energy and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [5][37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company achieved profitability in 2024 with a net profit of 0.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 120.2% despite a revenue decline of 14.9% to 1.09 billion yuan [1][4]. - The company is exploring a new business model combining "technology products + effective massage services" to drive future growth [2]. Revenue Performance - In 2024, domestic and international revenues were 1.0 billion yuan and 0.08 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 16.4% and an increase of 9.5%, respectively [2]. - The revenue breakdown by product for 2024 shows significant variations, with head and neck products performing well, while eye and shoulder products saw declines [2]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 improved by 1.3 percentage points to 60.6%, with notable increases in margins for eye and neck products [3]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 0.9%, an increase of 4.9 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Future Projections - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 0.47 billion yuan, 0.62 billion yuan, and 0.80 billion yuan, representing substantial growth rates of 358.8%, 31.4%, and 30.1%, respectively [4]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 0.55 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 56.1 [6][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the steel industry, suggesting a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The crude steel production in April 2025 remained flat year-on-year at 86.02 million tons, with a daily average production of 2.867 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 4.3% [2][7]. - The steel industry's profitability has improved, with the profit ratio of steel mills rising to 59.3% as of May 16, 2025, driven by falling raw material prices [2]. - The net financing of local government bonds reached 528.1 billion yuan in April 2025, indicating a significant increase in fiscal spending, which is expected to support demand in the steel sector [2][3]. - The apparent consumption of steel in April 2025 was 76.08 million tons, slightly down by 1.7% year-on-year, influenced by uncertainties from US-China tariff disputes [2][3]. Summary by Sections Production and Consumption - In April 2025, the production of pig iron was 72.58 million tons, up 0.7% year-on-year, while steel production increased by 6.6% to 125.09 million tons [7]. - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was at 49.0%, indicating a slight contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion zone at 50.4% [2]. Export and Import Dynamics - Steel exports in April 2025 reached 9.94 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16%, benefiting from price advantages [3][7]. - Iron ore imports rose by 1.3% year-on-year to 103.14 million tons in April 2025, although overall iron ore imports for the first four months decreased by 5.5% [7]. Policy and Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for proactive macroeconomic policies, including increased fiscal spending and monetary easing to support the economy [3]. - The report suggests that with the anticipated improvement in demand and supply-side adjustments, the long-term fundamentals of the steel industry are expected to improve [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and others, highlighting their potential benefits from the current economic conditions and demand recovery [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the steel industry, suggesting a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The crude steel production in April 2025 remained flat year-on-year at 86.02 million tons, with a daily average production of 2.867 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 4.3% [2][7]. - The steel industry's profitability has improved, with the profit ratio of steel mills rising to 59.3% as of May 16, 2025, driven by falling raw material prices [2]. - The net export of steel in April 2025 reached 9.94 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16%, supported by price advantages and a temporary easing of US-China tariff tensions [3]. - The government has accelerated the issuance of bonds, with local government net financing amounting to 528.1 billion yuan in April 2025, indicating a potential expansion in fiscal spending [2][3]. - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for April 2025 was at 49.0%, indicating a slight contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion zone at 50.4% [2]. Summary by Sections Production and Consumption - In April 2025, the production of pig iron was 72.58 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, while steel production was 125.09 million tons, up 6.6% year-on-year [7]. - The apparent consumption of steel in April 2025 was 76.08 million tons, a slight year-on-year decrease of 1.7% due to weakened expectations from US-China trade tensions [2][3]. Export and Import Dynamics - April 2025 saw steel exports of 1.046 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%, while imports decreased by 21% to 520,000 tons [7]. - Iron ore imports in April 2025 were 103.14 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends increasing positions in several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and others, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in demand and favorable market conditions [8][9].

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 05 20 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 重回价值投资 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【宏观】不只是关税—全面解读 4 月经济——20250519 【策略研究】【行业联合推荐】重回价值投资 ——20250519 【金融工程】美联储流动性的量价解构与资产配置应用——20250519 【固定收益】强韧数据背后的内外需压力——20250519 【固定收益】煤炭调度回落，化工开工率回升——基本面高频数据跟踪 ——20250519 【固定收益】可转债产业链大图谱——2025 年 5 月——20250519 ◼ 研究视点 【海外】阿里巴巴-W（09988.HK）-电商和云增长提速，AI 投入坚定不 改——20250519 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 gszqdatemark 2025 05 20 年 月 日 作者 | 分析师 沈猛 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0680522050001 | | | | | 邮箱：shenmeng@gszq.com | | | | | 行业表现前五名 | | | | | 行业 | 1 ...