证券研究报告|固定收益定期 2025 05 19 年 月 日 可转债产业链大图谱 — — 2025 年 5月 分析师 杨业伟 分析师 王素芳 执业证书编号：S0680520050001 执业证书编号：S0680524060002 邮箱：yangyewei@gszq.com 邮箱：wangsufang@gszq.com 打造极致专业与效率 电力、电气设备产业链（55） 发电设备与建设 风电设备 通裕转债 中陆转债 强联转债 天能转债 光伏设备 隆22转债 海优转债 福莱转债 高测转债 帝尔转债 通22转债 福22转债 天23转债 晶能转债 晶澳转债 双良转债 奥维转债 宇邦转债 欧晶转债 清源转债 太能转债 火电、能源设备 西子转债 发电 电力 节能转债 嘉泽转债 晶科转债 长集转债 新港转债 芯能转债 储能（电池） 电池化学品 天奈转债 恩捷转债 芳源转债 宙邦转债 锂科转债 天赐转债 道氏转02 翔丰转债 其他电源设备 欧通转债 锂电设备及锂电池 科利转债 冠宇转债 嘉元转债 震裕转债 豪鹏转债 亿纬转债 应用发电 电力运输和应用 配电设备 宏丰转债 白电转债 洛凯转债 输变电设备 崧盛转债 中能转债 线缆 ...

证券研究报告 | 固定收益定期 gszqdatemark 2025 05 19 年 月 日 固定收益定期 煤炭调度回落，化工开工率回升——基本面高频数据跟踪 本期国盛基本面高频指数为 125.7 点（前值为 125.5 点），当周（5 月 12 日-5 月 16 日，以下简称当周）同比增加 4.8 点（前值为增加 4.7 点），同比增幅回升。利率债多空信号为空头，信号因子为 6.4%（前值 为 6.3%）。 工业生产高频指数为 125.3，前值为 125.2，当周同比增加 4.7 点（前值 为增加 4.6 点），同比增幅增加。 商品房销售高频指数为 45.0，前值为 45.1，当周同比下降 6.7 点（前值 为下降 6.8 点），同比降幅收窄。 基建投资高频指数为 117.4，前值为 117.2，当周同比增加 0.5 点（前值 为增加 0.0 点），同比增幅扩大。 出口高频指数为 144.6，前值为 144.7，当周同比增加 7.2 点（前值为增 加 7.6 点），同比增幅收窄。 消费高频指数为 119.4，前值为 119.4，当周同比增加 1.3 点（前值为增 加 1.2 点），同比增幅增加。 物价方面，C ...

证券研究报告 | 策略报告 gszqdatemark 2025 05 19 年 月 日 投资策略专题 【行业联合推荐】重回价值投资 A 股市场定价逻辑正经历从短期估值博弈向长期价值投资的系统性切换。 伴随中长期资金占比提升与短期投机资金退潮，市场波动率显著收敛，企 业盈利质量（ROE）对股价的驱动作用持续强化。当前，资金面阶段性收 紧与公募新规的长周期考核要求，进一步抑制题材炒作惯性，引导资金流 向盈利稳定、估值合理的价值型资产。市场逐步回归基本面定价，具备可 持续竞争优势的企业将赢得长期资本青睐。 一、为什么当下重提价值投资？ A 股波动缩小、资金面缩紧、及公募新规的推出下，更多资金将为价值投 票。过往 A 股波动大，PE 变化是主导回报率的核心因素，但近年来 A 股 波动性持续缩小，市场逐渐转向 ROE 主导，价值相关的指数，在收益率表 现上明显占优。近来公募新规的推出，也倒逼资金从短期博弈重回长期价 值投资，未来更多资金将为价值投票。 二、价值投资定义-主要回报率来源于企业 ROE 和股东回报的投资策略 价值投资主要依靠企业盈利持续增长（ROE）或股东回报获取投资收益。 根据股市回报率公式，回报率来源可 ...

Economic Overview - In April 2025, industrial added value increased by 6.1% year-on-year, down from 7.7% in the previous period, while retail sales grew by 5.1%, a decrease from 5.9%[1] - Fixed asset investment for January-April rose by 4.0% year-on-year, slightly down from 4.2%, with real estate investment declining by 10.3%[1][2] Consumption Trends - Retail sales in April fell short of expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous value and below the market expectation of 5.5%[3][12] - The consumption of gold and silver jewelry, cultural office supplies, and building materials saw the highest growth rates, while automotive consumption remained volatile[3][14] Investment Insights - Real estate investment saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year drop of 10.3%, compared to a previous decline of 9.9%[5][18] - Manufacturing investment increased by 8.8% year-on-year, down from 9.1%, indicating a slight decrease in corporate investment willingness[5][26] Supply and Production - Industrial production growth was recorded at 6.1%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous period, but still above market expectations of 5.2%[5][38] - The service sector's production index fell by 0.3 percentage points to 6.0% year-on-year[39] Employment and Economic Outlook - The urban survey unemployment rate in April was 5.1%, down 0.1 percentage points, consistent with seasonal trends[44] - Looking ahead, the second quarter is expected to maintain economic resilience, with GDP growth projected around 5%, but pressures are anticipated to increase in the second half of the year[2][10][11]

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 05 18 年 月 日 量化周报 上证指数、上证 50 确认日线级别上涨 上证指数、上证 50 确认日线级别上涨。本周（5.12-5.16），大盘先扬后 抑，上证指数全周收涨 0.76%。在此背景下，上证指数、上证 50、汽车、 轻工、纺服、交运等纷纷确认日线级别上涨。这基本意味着贸易战对市场 的冲击已经结束了，市场再次回档前期低点的概率基本不存在了。由于市 场才刚刚确认日线级别上涨，还有很多指数和板块没有确认，因此，我们 认为市场的日线级别上涨还要持续一段时间，投资者可逆势布局。中期来 看，上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、深证成指、创业板指、科 创 50 纷纷确认周线级别上涨，而且在日线上只走出了 1 浪结构，中期牛 市刚刚开始；此外，已有 21 个行业处于周线级别上涨中，且 8 个行业周 线上涨只走了 1 浪结构，因此我们认为本轮牛市刚刚开始，而且还是个普 涨格局。中期对于投资者而言，仍然可以逆势布局。 A 股景气指数观察。截至 2025 年 5 月 16 日，A 股景气指数为 21.19，相 比 2023 年底上升 15. ...

证券研究报告 | 策略研究 gszqdatemark 2025 05 18 年 月 日 投资策略 当前对美出口链修复情况如何？ 特朗普"对等关税"在 4 月对 A 股对美出口链造成较大冲击，行业与个股 指数收盘价最深跌幅分别达到 12.19%、13.60%，随后对美出口链逐渐迎 来修复，对等关税至今，行业与个股指数累计涨跌幅分别为-1.18%、 3.48%，修复幅度分别为 90.31%、125.61%，换而言之，对美出口链目 前已经基本收复了"对等关税"超预期冲击所引发的跌幅。 本周中美经贸会谈发布联合声明，双方同意大幅降低双边关税水平，考虑 整体层面当前对美出口链修复空间已经不大，我们进一步对行业与个股进 行分析以挖掘细分机会，具体而言，我们希望寻找的是目前尚未收复"对 等关税"超预期冲击所引发的全部跌幅、25Q1 营业收入增速为正反映需 求增长的行业与个股： （1）行业层面看，最深跌幅至今修复幅度<100%且 25Q1 营收增速>0% 的细分行业包括元件、消费电子、影视院线、游戏与多元金融，重点指向 电子制造业。 （2）个股层面看，2024 年美国收入占比 Top50 的个股中满足上述筛选条 件的标的包括 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Views - The coal mining market is showing signs of bottoming out after a deep adjustment, with marginal improvements in fundamentals and supportive policies indicating a potential investment opportunity [3][10] - The report highlights five factors that may help stabilize coal prices, including reduced production from some coal mines, decreased railway shipment volumes, and anticipated increases in electricity demand due to high summer temperatures [6][10] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index rose to 3,244.52 points, up 1.65%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.53 percentage points [2][78] - Year-to-date, thermal coal prices have decreased by 139 CNY/ton, while coking coal prices have fallen by 180 CNY/ton, with the CITIC Coal Index down 11.7% [2] Key Factors Affecting Coal Prices - The report identifies that the supply side is tightening due to safety inspections and production cuts in some coal mines, leading to a decrease in capacity utilization [6][10] - High inventory levels at ports are suppressing demand, but the report anticipates that electricity demand may rise as summer temperatures increase [6][10] Focused Analysis on Key Areas - **Thermal Coal**: The market remains weak, with supply still ample and demand primarily driven by essential needs [11][14] - **Coking Coal**: The market continues to face downward pressure, with weak demand and high inventory levels [11][37] - **Coke**: Profits are recovering, supported by steady demand from steel production [11][54] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on key coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Xinji Energy, which are expected to perform well [9][10] Industry News - Inner Mongolia has increased its coal production capacity by nearly 180 million tons per year, receiving recognition from the State Council [83] - International sea coal trade volumes have decreased by 6.7% year-on-year [84]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 18 年 月 日 房地产开发 2025W20：本周新房成交同比-11.3%，二手房同比+3.7% 行情回顾：本周申万房地产指数累计变动幅度为-0.3%，落后沪深 300 指 数 1.43 个百分点，在 31 个申万一级行业排名第 25 名。 新房：本周 30个城市新房成交面积为195.6万平方米，环比提升29.2%， 同比下降 11.3%，其中样本一线城市的新房成交面积为 60.1 万方，环比 +41.1%，同比+13.8%；样本二线城市为 87.5 万方，环比+25.5%，同比 -28.1%；样本三线城市为 48.0 万方，环比+22.9%，同比+4.3%。 二手房：本周 14 个样本城市二手房成交面积合计 230.4 万方，环比增长 44.3%，同比增长 3.7%。其中样本一线城市的本周二手房成交面积为 96.8 万方，环比 63.4%；样本二线城市为 104.9 万方，环比 26.4%；样 本三线城市为 28.7 万方，环比 64.8%。 信用债：本周共发行房企信用债 5 只，环比减少 5 只；发行规模共计 36.00 亿元，环比减少 ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies such as Anta Sports, Shenzhou International, and others, with specific PE ratios projected for 2025 [4][36][37] Core Views - The apparel manufacturing sector shows stable revenue trends, with companies like Yuyuan Group and Ruo Hong reporting year-on-year revenue growth of 10.5% and 18.2% respectively for April 2025 [1][12] - Vietnam's textile and footwear exports have seen significant growth, with April 2025 figures showing a 20% increase in textile and a 27% increase in footwear exports year-on-year [19][27] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring international trade policies and their impact on the industry, particularly in light of recent tariff changes [3][36] Summary by Sections Weekly Topic - Apparel manufacturing companies reported stable revenue trends for April 2025, with Yuyuan Group and Ruo Hong showing healthy growth [1][12] - Vietnam's textile and footwear exports are performing well, while China's related product exports are relatively weak [19][27] Weekly Insights - Focus on robust brands with solid fundamentals, anticipating performance recovery and valuation improvement in 2025 [2][35] - The sportswear segment is expected to benefit from national policy support and increased participation in sports activities [2][35] Industry Overview - The apparel manufacturing sector is experiencing short-term stock price impacts due to tariff events, but long-term leaders with integrated and international supply chains are expected to gain market share [3][36] - Key companies to watch include Shenzhou International, Huayi Group, and Weixing Co., with projected PE ratios for 2025 of 12, 15, and 18 respectively [34][36] Recent Reports - The textile manufacturing sector is expected to recover in 2024, with a focus on quality brands in 2025 [8][36] - The jewelry sector is also showing signs of recovery, with retail sales of gold and silver jewelry increasing by 6.9% in early 2025 [3][36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the environmental sector, including Huicheng Environmental and Gao Neng Environment [4][24]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of digital and green transformation in the environmental industry, driven by new policies and regulations aimed at enhancing energy efficiency and promoting low-carbon technologies [10][20]. - It highlights the expected benefits for companies involved in energy-saving processes, low-carbon technology research, and circular economy innovations, particularly in high-energy-consuming sectors like power, metallurgy, and petrochemicals [20][21]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with leading advantages in green process research and industrial pollution control equipment, such as Longjing Environmental and Bihui Source [20][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Views - The report discusses the issuance of the "2025 Digital and Green Collaborative Transformation Development Work Points" by multiple government departments, which outlines systematic requirements for low-carbon digitalization and traditional industry empowerment [10]. - It also mentions the "2025 Legislative Work Plan" from the State Council, which focuses on upgrading environmental legislation and enhancing regulatory frameworks for green development [21][22]. - The report notes that the current macroeconomic environment, characterized by historically low interest rates, presents a favorable backdrop for investing in high-dividend and growth-oriented assets [2][23]. 2. Market Performance - The environmental sector underperformed compared to the broader market, with the environmental index rising only 0.10% against a 0.76% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [3][25]. - Specific sub-sectors showed varied performance, with monitoring up by 1.61% while water treatment and energy-saving sectors declined [3][25]. 3. Industry News - Recent policies in Henan Province aim to enhance resource recycling and promote the establishment of a comprehensive recycling system [38]. - The central government has issued guidelines to accelerate urban renewal actions, focusing on improving urban infrastructure and waste management systems [38]. - New regulations on ecological environment protection have been introduced, emphasizing the need for robust environmental oversight [38]. 4. Key Announcements - The report includes various corporate announcements, such as bond issuances and share transfers, which reflect ongoing activities within the environmental sector [39][40].