Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market - A" [1] Core Viewpoints - The current time point is at the intersection of two five-year periods, closer to the transition between the fourth and fifth years, with expectations of structural upward marginal EPS after 2025, supported by the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][8] - The supply side is expected to experience an expansion period from the end of 2023 to the end of 2026, while the demand side will see a "filling gaps" demand expansion period from 2025 to 2026, characterized by more consumable equipment and a pulse-like rather than growth-type opportunity [2][26] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is anticipated to be a critical five years for global development, with military trade demand becoming a significant variable due to changes in international geopolitical strategies [2][26] Summary by Sections Section 1: Current Cycle Position - The industry is currently in a mid-cycle phase, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" nearing its end, leading to expectations of structural upward movement in EPS and PE due to the "15th Five-Year Plan" [8][9] Section 2: Supply and Demand Outlook - The supply side is projected to expand from late 2023 to late 2026, while the demand side will focus on "filling gaps" and "creating revenue" as core themes for the next five years [15][26] - The demand for military equipment is expected to be more pulse-like, with a balance point in civilian demand anticipated around 2027, supporting price declines [2][26] Section 3: Investment Strategy - Investment strategies are categorized into "filling gaps" and "creating revenue," focusing on completed and pending equipment from the "14th Five-Year Plan," as well as military trade and civilian sectors [29] - Specific attention is given to small-cap stocks in the aftermarket for completed equipment and larger-cap stocks for potential opportunities following event-driven declines [29]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 57.83 CNY over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The recent release of the "Key Information Infrastructure Commercial Password Usage Management Regulations" is expected to significantly promote the password industry, clarifying regulatory responsibilities, establishing reporting timelines, and ensuring funding for security assessments [2][3]. - The company has a comprehensive range of password products from chips to complete systems, positioning it to benefit from the anticipated growth in industry demand driven by new regulations [3]. - The company is actively developing quantum-resistant password products and engaging in stablecoin-related businesses, which are seen as critical areas for future growth [4][10]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Impact - The new regulations clarify the roles of various regulatory bodies, which is expected to accelerate the development and penetration of the password industry [2]. - A specific reporting deadline for operators to report on the use and security assessments of commercial passwords is established, promoting regular evaluations and driving product sales [2]. - Financial support for security assessments is mandated, which is crucial for enhancing demand for related products [2]. Company Positioning - The company has launched several pioneering products in the password security space, including the first domestic security level three password card and machine, as well as the "SansecHSM" [3]. - The successful mass production of the self-developed password security chip XS100 and the certification of various IoT-specific chips indicate the company's strong product pipeline [3]. Future Growth Areas - The company has developed a full suite of quantum-resistant password products and is involved in pilot applications across various sectors, including finance and telecommunications [4][9]. - The company is also focusing on stablecoin applications, recognizing the importance of password technology in supporting digital currencies for cross-border payments [9][10]. - Revenue projections for the company indicate significant growth, with expected revenues of 6.65 billion CNY in 2025, increasing to 9.05 billion CNY by 2027 [10].

Group 1: Economic Trends - The stock market has shown strong performance since the beginning of the year, with small-cap indices leading the gains[2] - Industrial enterprise profits turned negative in May, with a year-on-year decline of 9.1%, marking the first negative result this year[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has deepened its year-on-year decline, indicating increasing pressure from overcapacity in the industrial sector[4] Group 2: Credit Expansion and Asset Prices - Active credit expansion by commercial banks is driving asset price trends, with a notable increase in stock valuations and a decline in bond yields[10] - The growth of social financing has rebounded since the beginning of the year, indicating a supply-driven increase in credit rather than demand-driven[10] - The current trend in asset prices is expected to continue as regulatory authorities show a strong willingness to guide banks to increase credit supply amid slowing demand and low prices[10] Group 3: Risks and Future Outlook - Risks include geopolitical tensions and potential policy changes that could exceed expectations[3] - The ongoing low inflation environment and weak demand may lead to continued downward pressure on corporate profits, particularly in the third quarter[4] - The market anticipates three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, with a total reduction of approximately 64 basis points[18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the food and beverage industry [10] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a divergence in performance, with traditional consumption showing weakness while new consumption trends are on the rise [19][20] - The report highlights that companies are adopting more rational growth targets for 2025, with many setting revenue growth expectations in the single or low double-digit range [45][49] Summary by Sections 1. White Spirits - The white spirits sector is currently at a fundamental bottom, with companies like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye expected to perform well as the supply-demand imbalance eases [1] - Revenue growth for high-end, mid-range, and regional spirits in Q1 2025 was +7.9%, -13.3%, and +4.7% respectively, indicating a slowdown across the board [32] - Companies are focusing on channel expansion into lower-tier markets to enhance growth opportunities [48] 2. Beer - The beer industry faces volume and price pressures, with major brands experiencing significant declines in sales due to weak demand and adverse weather conditions [2][60] - Despite the challenges, the cost advantages from lower raw material prices are expected to provide profit elasticity in 2025 [60] - The report suggests focusing on Yanjing Beer, which is undergoing structural upgrades and state-owned enterprise reforms [2] 3. Other Alcoholic Beverages - The high-end positioning of Huangjiu (yellow wine) is progressing, and the domestic whiskey market is seen as a new growth avenue, with companies like Bairun Co. expected to perform well [3] 4. Dairy Products - The report emphasizes the importance of low-temperature dairy products and generous dividend policies from companies like Yili and China Feihe, despite the overall weak demand for long-life dairy products [4] 5. Soft Drinks - National leading brands like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring are outperforming regional brands, with new product launches gaining market attention [5] 6. Snacks - The snack industry continues to thrive, with new product innovations and the rise of bulk purchasing providing growth opportunities [6] 7. Condiments - The condiment sector is experiencing slow revenue growth, with pressures from both B-end and C-end markets [7] 8. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong growth potential and favorable market conditions, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Yanjing Beer, and Yili [14][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" [7] Core Insights - The recent adjustment of the commercial health insurance innovative drug directory by the National Medical Insurance Administration is expected to improve the payment situation for high-value innovative drugs, providing an additional payment pathway beyond basic medical insurance [2][20] - The report identifies a list of drugs likely to be included in the commercial health insurance innovative drug directory, which may help break the previous sales ceiling for these products [2][20] Weekly New Drug Market Review - From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the top five companies in the new drug sector by stock price increase were: - Zai Lab (30.45%) - Maiwei Biotech (17.44%) - Yunding New Medicine (16.62%) - Microchip Biotech (12.19%) - Nossland (11.30%) - The top five companies by stock price decrease were: - Beihai Kangcheng-B (-15.15%) - Laika Pharmaceuticals-B (-13.67%) - Jako Pharmaceuticals-B (-13.32%) - Yiming Oncology-B (-12.22%) - Gilead Sciences-B (-10.50%) [1][16][17] New Drug Approval and Acceptance Status - No new drug or new indication applications were approved this week - Five new drug or new indication applications were accepted, including: - Recombinant human follicle-stimulating hormone injection by Chengdu Jingze - AbbVie’s botulinum toxin type A injection - Xinda Biopharmaceutical's sintilimab injection - Kexing Life Science's Shurike Aolun injection - Hainan Huluwawa's brivaracetam oral film [3][22] Clinical Application Approval and Acceptance Status - This week, 15 new drug clinical applications were approved, and 41 new drug clinical applications were accepted [4][24]

2025 年 06 月 29 日 电子 龙芯 3C6000 国产处理器发布，美光 Q3 业绩&指引超预期 龙芯 3C6000 处理器发布，自主可控再进阶 6 月 26 日，龙芯中科举行新品发布会，正式推出 3C6000/S/D/Q 系列 及 2K3000/3B6000M 的芯片和解决方案。经中国电子技术标准化研究 院测试，四路 3C6000/D 的 SPEC CPU 2017 多核定点分值达 547 分， 较上代提升 60%-110%，UnixBench 多线程性能翻倍，多核性能与国际 主流产品的代差已缩短至 4 年以内。该系列产品实现三大技术突破： 1）完成 5000 余条龙架构指令重构，规避 x86/ARM 专利壁垒；2）配 套 7A2000 独显桥片及国密算法加速模块，核心元器件国产化率达 100%；3）实现设计、制造、封装全流程国产化。多家客户同期发布 了基于新品的服务器及解决方案，标志着我国自主 CPU 技术取得重 要进展。 小米 AI 眼镜正式发布，重量更轻+待机更长 6 月 26 日小米发布 YU7、MIX Flip 2 等多款产品。其中，小米首款 AI 智能眼镜成为全场焦点，被雷军定义为"下一 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the A-share market is currently in a "new victory over the old" phase of economic transformation, characterized by a shift towards new technologies and consumption patterns, with significant performance in sectors like AI, military technology, and innovative pharmaceuticals [5][61][65] - The report indicates that the market has shown resilience despite economic pressures, with a projected GDP growth target of around 5% for the year, supported by low interest rates and a favorable policy environment [1][51][52] - The report notes that the current market dynamics reflect a "barbell strategy," where investments are concentrated in high-dividend stocks and new economy sectors, indicating a structural shift in investor preferences [2][61] Group 2 - The report discusses the recent performance of various indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.91%, the ChiNext Index increasing by 5.69%, and the Hang Seng Index up by 3.20%, indicating a strong market sentiment [17][13] - It mentions that the active equity funds have shown significant inflows, particularly in sectors aligned with new economic trends, while traditional sectors have lagged behind [37][41][52] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the balance between equity and bond investments, as the low interest rate environment has led to a notable shift in asset allocation strategies among institutional investors [3][35][43] Group 3 - The report outlines three potential scenarios for the market in the second half of the year, drawing parallels with previous years (2019, 2020, and 2024) to assess the likelihood of continued growth and sector rotation [4][66][69] - It highlights the ongoing transformation of the Chinese economy, with a focus on the increasing share of new economic sectors in GDP, which is expected to stabilize growth and support market performance [51][61][65] - The report also points out that the consumer sector, particularly new consumption trends, has outperformed traditional consumption indices, reflecting a shift in consumer behavior and preferences [61][62][68]

周观点：央行强调加大收储推进力度 央行召开 2025 年第二季度例会，房地产层面，会议要求着力推动已 出台金融政策措施落地见效，加大存量商品房和存量土地盘活力度， 持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势，完善房地产金融基础性制度，助力构 建房地产发展新模式。 我们认为，在当前 5、6 月，房地产复苏动能减弱，市场下行压力增 加的背景下，7 月将迎来新一轮的政策宽松周期，今年以来出台的包 括收储、城中村改造及对房企的融资宽松政策，预计在三季度将加大 实施力度，助力行业止跌回稳。建议关注困境反转类房企：金地集团、 新城控股等；保持拿地强度的龙头招商蛇口、绿城中国、保利发展、 滨江集团等；多元经营稳健发展的地方国企浦东金桥、外高桥等。 销售回顾（6.21-6.27） 重点监测 32 城合计成交总套数为 2.4 万套，环比上周增长 41%；2025 年累计成交总套数为 40.6 万套，累计同比下降 4.6%。其中，一线城 市成交 6085 套，环比上周增长 36.2%，2025 年累计成交 11.6 万套， 累计同比增长 9.6%；二线城市成交 15455 套，环比上周增长 47.4%， 2025 年累计成交 24.2 万套，累 ...

2025 年 06 月 29 日 计算机 政策持续推进，加快建设加密货币新生态 大陆：数字人民币和稳定币双管齐下，RWA 成为重要金融工具 美国：GENIUS 法案获参议院通过，金融生态持续拓展 6 月 17 日，美国参议院以 61 票赞成、37 票反对的表决结果通过了 《指导和建立美国稳定币国家创新法案》（简称 GENIUS 法案）。这是 美国国会首次在参议院层面通过专门针对稳定币的监管立法，。6 月 25 日，美国联邦住房金融署(FHFA)命令住房贷款机构，考虑将加密 货币作为住宅抵押贷款风险评估的资产。这一指令有望继续推动加 密货币在美国普及。此外，美国加密货币交易所 Coinbase 宣布成为 首个获得 CFTC（美国商品期货交易委员会）批准，提供 24/7 全天候 比特币和以太坊期货交易的合规平台。我们认为，伴随 GENIUS 法案 的推进，以及加密货币衍生品和抵押贷款等金融工具的推出，美国加 密货币金融生态持续拓展。 香港：发布数字资产发展政策宣言 2.0，政策体系逐渐完善 6 月 26 日，香港特区政府发表《香港数字资产发展政策宣言 2.0》， 重申特区政府致力将香港打造成数字资产领域中的全球创 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Divergence-Based Turning Points - **Model Construction Idea**: The model identifies potential price turning points by observing divergences between price trends and volume or technical indicators (e.g., MACD). Divergences signal weakening momentum, suggesting a possible reversal in the price trend [2][9]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Identify price making new highs or lows. 2. Check if corresponding volume or MACD fails to make new highs or lows, indicating divergence. 3. Confirm divergence using additional signals: - For MACD, use green bar shortening or yellow/white line crossover for confirmation [10]. - Apply wave theory to filter valid signals by identifying five-wave structures in trends [14][16]. 4. Combine divergence signals with moving averages to determine market conditions (e.g., bull or bear market) [14][16]. - **Model Evaluation**: Divergence signals alone have a success rate of less than 55% for predicting turning points. However, combining them with wave theory and moving averages improves accuracy to over 65% [13][16][17]. 2. Model Name: V-Shaped Reversal Turning Points - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses the "Temperature Indicator" to measure the degree of price deviation from moving averages, identifying extreme conditions that may signal V-shaped reversals [3][18][19]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate a moving average (e.g., 60-day for short-term trends, annual for long-term trends). 2. Shift the moving average left by half its parameter length. 3. Linearly extrapolate the last two points of the shifted moving average. 4. Compute the deviation (bias) of each price point from the extrapolated moving average. 5. Calculate the percentile rank of the deviation over a rolling window to derive the "Temperature Indicator," which ranges from 0 to 100 [18][19]. 6. Define thresholds for identifying turning points: - In bear markets, both high-frequency and low-frequency temperature indicators must fall below 10. - In range-bound markets, only the high-frequency indicator below 10 is sufficient. - In bull markets, consider additional risks and adjust thresholds (e.g., high-frequency indicator below 15 or 10) [19][21][26]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies turning points in various market conditions but requires adjustments for bull markets to account for strong trends and potential false signals [27][28]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Divergence-Based Turning Points - **Accuracy**: Basic divergence signals have a success rate below 55% but improve to over 65% when combined with wave theory and moving averages [13][16][17]. 2. V-Shaped Reversal Turning Points - **Bear Market**: High-frequency and low-frequency temperature indicators below 10 successfully identified rebounds in January, February, and April 2022, each lasting over a month [21]. - **Range-Bound Market**: High-frequency temperature indicator below 10 identified rebounds in January and April 2025 during a three-quarter-long consolidation phase [22][25]. - **Bull Market**: High-frequency temperature indicator below 10 or 15 identified five strong buying opportunities in gold futures from 2023 to 2025 [26]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Temperature Indicator - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures price deviation from moving averages to identify extreme overbought or oversold conditions [18][19]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use a moving average (e.g., 60-day or annual) to represent the trend. 2. Shift the moving average left by half its parameter length. 3. Linearly extrapolate the last two points of the shifted moving average. 4. Calculate the deviation (bias) of each price point from the extrapolated moving average. 5. Compute the percentile rank of the deviation over a rolling window to derive the factor value, ranging from 0 to 100 [18][19]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively identifies extreme market conditions but requires different thresholds for bear, range-bound, and bull markets to optimize performance [19][21][26]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Temperature Indicator - **Bear Market**: High-frequency and low-frequency indicators below 10 identified rebounds in January, February, and April 2022 [21]. - **Range-Bound Market**: High-frequency indicator below 10 identified rebounds in January and April 2025 [22][25]. - **Bull Market**: High-frequency indicator below 10 or 15 identified five strong buying opportunities in gold futures from 2023 to 2025 [26].