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公募REITs周报(第23期):指数收跌,消费REITs迎新机遇-20250629
Guoxin Securities· 2025-06-29 15:00
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - This week, the China Securities REITs Index closed down. The average weekly price changes of property - type REITs and franchise - type REITs were - 2.1% and - 1.8% respectively. From the comparison of the weekly price changes of major indices, CSI Convertible Bonds > CSI 300 > CSI All - Bond > CSI REITs. The average daily turnover rate of REITs throughout the week increased slightly compared to the previous week. All types of REITs in the entire market closed down, with energy, ecological, and municipal facilities REITs having smaller declines. As of June 27, the average annualized cash distribution rate of public - offering REITs was 6.3%, significantly higher than the current static yields of mainstream fixed - income assets. The dividend yield of property REITs was 143BP lower than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of franchise - type REITs and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield was 209BP. The central bank and other six departments issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption", supporting the issuance of REITs for eligible consumer infrastructure, bringing new opportunities for the development of consumer REITs. China Asset Management Beijing Affordable Housing REIT completed the first domestic rental housing expansion and fundraising, realizing a "first - issuance + expansion - fundraising" closed - loop for rental housing REITs and establishing a paradigm for normalizing refinancing [1]. Summary by Directory Market Trends - **Secondary Market Trends** - As of June 27, 2025, the closing price of the CSI REITs (closing) index was 880.9 points, with a weekly price change of - 1.46%, performing worse than the CSI Convertible Bonds Index (+2.08%), the CSI 300 Index (+1.95%), and the CSI All - Bond Index (- 0.09%). Year - to - date, the price change rankings of major indices were: CSI REITs (+11.6%) > CSI Convertible Bonds (+6.6%) > CSI All - Bond (+1.2%) > CSI 300 (- 0.3%). In the past year, the return rate of the CSI REITs index was 11.4%, with a volatility of 7.0%. The return rate was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index and the CSI Convertible Bonds Index but higher than that of the CSI All - Bond Index. The volatility was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index and the CSI Convertible Bonds Index but higher than that of the CSI All - Bond Index. The total market value of REITs rose to 206.1 billion yuan on June 27, a decrease of 500 million yuan from the previous week. The average daily turnover rate throughout the week was 0.61%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points from the previous week [2][8][14]. - Energy, ecological, and municipal facilities REITs had smaller declines. The average weekly price changes of property - type REITs and franchise - type REITs were - 2.1% and - 1.8% respectively. Among different project - type REITs, all closed down, with the three project types with the smallest average declines being energy (- 0.8%), ecological (- 0.9%), and municipal facilities (- 1.3%). The top three REITs in terms of weekly price increases were AVIC Jingneng Photovoltaic REIT (+0.95%), China Asset Management China Resources Commercial REIT (+0.64%), and CICC Shandong Expressway REIT (+0.47%) [3][19][23]. - In terms of trading activity, municipal facilities REITs were the most active this week, and transportation infrastructure REITs had the highest proportion of trading volume. The former had an average daily turnover rate of 2.4% during the period, accounting for 2.8% of the total REITs trading volume. The latter had an average daily turnover rate of 0.6%, accounting for 25.9% of the total REITs trading volume. In terms of the capital flow of different REIT products this week, the top three in terms of net inflow of main funds were China Asset Management China Resources Commercial REIT (21.81 million yuan), Penghua Shenzhen Energy REIT (16.2 million yuan), and China Asset Management Heda High - tech REIT (10.79 million yuan) [3][24][25]. - **Primary Market Issuance** - As of June 27, 2025, there were 2 REIT products in the declared stage on the exchange, 3 products had been accepted, 5 products had received feedback, 5 products had passed and were waiting to be listed, and there were 7 first - issued products that had passed and were already listed [27]. Valuation Tracking - REITs have both bond and equity characteristics. From the bond perspective, under the constraint of mandatory high dividends, the average annualized cash distribution rate of public - offering REITs as of June 27 was 6.3%, significantly higher than the current static yields of mainstream fixed - income assets. From the equity perspective, the valuation of REITs is judged through relative net - value premium rate, IRR, and P/FFO. The relative net - value premium rate reflects the relationship between the market value and fair value of the fund, similar to the PB indicator of stocks; IRR is the internal rate of return calculated using the cash - flow discount method; P/FFO is the current price divided by the cash flow generated from operations. The relative net - value premium rate is a long - term perspective, evaluating the secondary - market valuation level from the valuation of underlying assets; P/FFO is a short - term perspective, valuing the distributable cash flow based on the recent asset operation situation to judge the current investment return rate [29]. - Different project types of REITs have different valuation indicators. For example, municipal facilities REITs had a relative net - value premium rate of 79.1%, a P/FFO of 8.7, an IRR of 7.5%, and an annualized dividend rate of 13.6%. In addition, the dividend yield of property - type REITs was compared with the CSI Dividend stock dividend yield, and the internal rate of return of franchise - type REITs was compared with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield. As of June 27, 2025, the dividend yield of property REITs was 143BP lower than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of franchise - type REITs and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield was 209BP [30]. Industry News - On June 19, the central bank and other six departments issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption", proposing to support the issuance of public - offering REITs for eligible consumer infrastructure, further expanding the "asset pool" for consumer REITs and strengthening the institutional and financial foundation for project implementation [35]. - On June 24, the winning bid results of Jiangxi Water Group's public - offering REITs were announced, with Huatai - PineBridge Fund winning the fund manager qualification. On the same day, the tender for Wenzhou Shanxi Water Conservancy's public - offering REITs was completed, with CICC and CICC Fund's consortium winning the bid [35]. - On June 25, China Asset Management Beijing Affordable Housing REIT completed the first domestic rental housing expansion and fundraising, raising approximately 946 million yuan. The expansion included 4 affordable rental housing projects, and rental housing REITs achieved a "first - issuance + expansion - fundraising" closed - loop [35]. - On June 26, CICC Yizhuang Industrial Park REIT was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the first domestic infrastructure REIT focusing on the automobile manufacturing industry chain, raising a total of 1.088 billion yuan [35]. - On June 27, CICC China Green Development Commercial REIT was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and hit the daily limit on the first day, with a 30% increase from the issue price, showing the strong attractiveness of consumer - type commercial assets in the REITs market [36].
私募EB每周跟踪(20250623-20250627):可交换私募债跟踪-20250629
Guoxin Securities· 2025-06-29 14:34
Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core View - The report regularly sorts out the latest private exchangeable bond (private EB) project information available from public channels and conducts basic element tracking on private exchangeable bond projects. The issuance terms and processes may change, and the final prospectus should be referred to. For the issuance progress, consult the relevant lead underwriters [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog New Projects This Week - The 2025 private placement of exchangeable corporate bonds of Fuda Holdings Group Co., Ltd. for professional investors has been accepted by the exchange. The proposed issuance scale is 1.2 billion yuan, the underlying stock is Fuda Co., Ltd. (603166.SH), the lead underwriter is Zhongde Securities, and the exchange update date is June 27, 2025 [2] - The 2025 private placement of exchangeable corporate bonds of Zijin Mining Investment (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. for professional investors has been accepted by the exchange. The proposed issuance scale is 700 million yuan, the underlying stocks are Dunan Environment/Jiangnan Chemical (002011.SZ/002226.SZ), the lead underwriter is CITIC Securities, and the exchange update date is June 24, 2025 [2] Project Status Table - Multiple private exchangeable bond projects are listed in the table, including their bond names, lead underwriters, scales, underlying stocks, project statuses, and update dates. Projects are in different statuses such as "Passed", "Feedback Received", and "Accepted" [3]
基金周报:年内多家公司对旗下ETF更名,科创板ETF纳入基金投顾配置范围-20250629
Guoxin Securities· 2025-06-29 14:07
证券研究报告 | 2025年06月29日 基金周报 年内多家公司对旗下 ETF 更名,科创板 ETF 纳入基金投顾配置范围 核心观点 金融工程周报 上周市场回顾。上周A股市场主要宽基指数全线上涨,创业板指、中证 1000、中证 500 指数收益靠前,收益分别为 5.69%、4.62%、3.98%, 上证综指、沪深 300、中小板指指数收益靠后,收益分别为 1.91%、 1.95%、2.55%。 从成交额来看,上周主要宽基指数成交额均有所上升。行业方面,上周 综合金融、计算机、综合收益靠前,收益分别为 14.48%、8.09%、7.55%, 石油石化、食品饮料、交通运输收益靠后,收益分别为-1.45%、0.02%、 0.25%。 截至上周五,央行逆回购净投放资金 10672 亿元,逆回购到期 9603 亿 元,净公开市场投放 20275 亿元。除 1 年期和 3 年期外,不同期限的国 债利率均有所上行,利差扩大 1.66BP。 上周共上报 28 只基金,较上上周申报数量有所减少。申报的产品包括 3 只FOF,2 只REITs,天弘国证港股通消费主题ETF、嘉实上证科创板人 工智能ETF、华宝港股通恒生消费ETF ...
转债市场周报:正股高波强势的平衡型品种最具性价比-20250629
Guoxin Securities· 2025-06-29 12:51
Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that convertible bonds with strong underlying stocks and high volatility are the most cost-effective options in the current market environment [2][17] - The market saw a significant increase in the convertible bond index, with a weekly rise of 2.08% and an average price increase of 4.54% [2][9] - The average conversion premium across different price ranges showed varied changes, indicating a shift in market sentiment and valuation [9][18] Group 2 - The report suggests that investors should avoid low-priced strategies in the convertible bond market and focus on high-volatility, strong underlying stocks for better returns [2][17] - It highlights the importance of adjusting positions based on risk tolerance, recommending a shift to lower volatility sectors for those with high withdrawal requirements [2][17] - The analysis indicates that the convertible bond market still has incremental capital inflow, benefiting from the profit-taking effect observed at the end of June [2][17]
电力设备新能源行业点评:2024年海风政府拍卖达56GW,固态电池产业化加速推进
Guoxin Securities· 2025-06-29 11:47
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electric equipment and new energy industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Views - In 2024, global offshore wind government auctions are expected to reach 56GW, setting a historical record. The solid-state battery industrialization is accelerating, with equipment companies beginning to deliver solid-state battery equipment in small batches to clients. Battery manufacturers plan to deliver full solid-state battery samples to clients between 2025 and 2027 [2][3] - The demand for AIDC electric equipment remains strong, driven by continuous updates in AI models requiring sustained computational power [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Wind Power - The global offshore wind government auctions are projected to reach 56GW in 2024, marking a historical high. The total installed offshore wind capacity is expected to reach 83GW by the end of 2024, with an additional 48GW under construction [3] - In Poland, Equinor and Polenergia have made a final investment decision for the Bałtyk 2 and 3 offshore wind farms, with a total capacity of 1.4GW and an investment exceeding €7.2 billion [3] Solid-State Battery - The solid-state battery industrialization is progressing rapidly, with equipment manufacturers successfully delivering solid-state battery production equipment to leading domestic clients. Strategic partnerships are being formed to develop solid-state battery materials and production equipment [6] - The consumer battery sector is seeing an increase in silicon content, with projections indicating that by mid-2025, the silicon content in batteries could reach 25% [6] AIDC Electric Equipment - The demand for AIDC electric equipment is expected to remain robust, supported by the ongoing advancements in AI technologies and the need for enhanced computational capabilities [9] Grid Equipment - In May, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity reached 92.9GW, a year-on-year increase of 388%, while wind power installations reached 26.32GW, a year-on-year increase of 801% [10] - The State Grid Corporation of China has completed the equity transfer for a high-voltage direct current project in Greece, which will enhance connectivity between Crete and the European mainland [10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the following companies: 1. Wind Power: Goldwind Technology, Oriental Cable, Wide Special Materials, Zhongji United, Daikin Heavy Industries, Times New Material, Hezhong Electric [2][5] 2. Lithium Battery: CATL, Xiamen Tungsten, Rongbai Technology, Tiannai Technology, Zhuhai Guanyu, Haopeng Technology, Shenghong Co., Ltd. [8] 3. AIDC Electric Equipment: Jinpan Technology, Mingyang Electric, Igor, Hezhong Electric, Shenghong Co., Ltd. [9] 4. Grid Equipment: Guodian NARI, Siyuan Electric, Samsung Medical, Jinpan Technology, Pinggao Electric, Oriental Electronics, Sifang Co., Ltd., Jinbei Electric [10]
宏观经济宏观周报:高频指标延续季节性回落-20250629
Guoxin Securities· 2025-06-29 05:36
周度价格高频跟踪方面: 证券研究报告 | 2025年06月29日 宏观经济宏观周报 高频指标延续季节性回落 主要结论:高频指标延续季节性回落。 经济增长方面,本周(6 月 27 日所在周)国信高频宏观扩散指数 A 维持负值, 指数 B 季节性回落。从分项来看,本周投资领域景气有所回落,消费、房地 产领域景气基本保持不变。从季节性比较来看,本周指数 B 标准化后下跌 0.14,表现基本持平历史平均水平,指向国内经济增长动能运行稳健。 基于国信高频宏观扩散指数对资产价格进行预测,显示当前国内利率偏低, 上证综合指数偏高,从均值回归的角度看,预计下周(2025 年 7 月 4 日所在 周)十年期国债利率将上行,上证综合指数将下行。 (1)本周食品价格小幅下跌,非食品价格上涨。预计 6 月 CPI 食品价格环 比约为-0.5%,非食品价格环比约为零,整体 CPI 环比约为-0.1%,CPI 同比 小幅回升至零。 (2)6 月上旬流通领域生产资料价格定基指数继续下跌,中旬止跌回升。预 计 6 月 PPI 环比约为-0.3%,PPI 同比回落至-3.4%。 风险提示:海外市场动荡,存在不确定性。 核心观点 经济研究·宏观 ...
估值周观察(6月第5期):风偏提振,估值扩张
Guoxin Securities· 2025-06-29 05:35
Group 1 - The overseas markets collectively rose in the past week (June 23-27, 2025), with major indices increasing by over 2.5%, particularly the Nikkei 225, which rose by 4.55% [2][8] - Valuation expansion was observed across most indices, with the exception of a slight contraction in the PE of the French CAC40. The PE of US indices expanded by 1-2 times, while the German DAX saw the most significant expansion of +2.28x [2][8] - A-share core broad indices rebounded collectively, with notable increases in the National Index 2000 (+4.94%), the CSI 1000 (+4.62%), and the CSI 500 (+3.98%), with respective PE expansions of 2.29x, 1.60x, and 0.99x [2][21] Group 2 - The TMT sector led the rebound among primary industries, with significant gains in computer (+7.70%), defense and military (+6.90%), and non-bank financials (+6.66%). In contrast, the oil and petrochemical sector experienced a decline of -2.07% [43] - The overall valuation expanded in line with market trends, with the defense and military and computer sectors experiencing the largest PE expansions of 5.29x and 6.01x, respectively [43] - The essential consumer sector showed superior valuation attractiveness, particularly in food and beverage and agriculture, with 3-year/5-year average valuation percentiles of only 7.30% / 4.38% and 17.75% / 12.74%, indicating significant room for valuation recovery [2][43]
ESG热点周聚焦(6月第5期):企业可持续披露再迎新进展
Guoxin Securities· 2025-06-29 05:09
Core Insights - Global ESG development is marked by actions from governments, enterprises, and financial institutions to promote clean energy, enhance climate action, foster green finance innovation, and improve corporate environmental and social responsibility, showcasing a positive trend in addressing climate change and pursuing sustainable development [2][6] - In the area of information disclosure, the International Financial Reporting Standards Foundation released new guidelines to help companies improve the quality, consistency, and comparability of climate transition data; the UK government published a draft for a new UK Sustainable Development Reporting Standard; and the EU Council significantly reduced corporate sustainability reporting and due diligence rules [2][6] - In carbon neutrality, significant agreements were made, including JPMorgan's 10-year carbon removal credit agreement with 1PointFive for 50,000 tons of CO2 removal, and Microsoft's 12-year agreement with Agoro Carbon for 2.6 million carbon removal credits [2][6] Overseas ESG Events - The UK government announced a comprehensive industrial strategy with plans to invest over £30 billion annually in clean energy manufacturing by 2035, doubling current levels [6][7] - Eni sold a 20% stake in its renewable energy division Plenitude to Ares Management for approximately $2.3 billion, part of Eni's long-term strategy to expand its clean energy business [6][7] - The EU Council adopted a comprehensive negotiating position to significantly reduce corporate sustainability reporting and due diligence rules, which will limit reporting obligations to the largest companies operating in the EU [6][7] Domestic ESG Events - The Ministry of Finance in China released a draft for the application guidelines of the "Corporate Sustainability Disclosure Standards - Basic Standards (Trial)" [2] - ByteDance purchased over 100,000 high-integrity carbon credits from Rubicon Carbon, marking a significant step in carbon neutrality efforts [2] - The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) partnered with Keppel to raise up to $1.5 billion for sustainable infrastructure projects in the Asia-Pacific region [2][6] Academic Frontiers - Research published in June 2025 in "Finance Research Letters" found that increased concern over climate risk significantly raised the green premium in the Chinese stock market from 2017 to 2023 [2][4] - Another study indicated that institutional investors' site visits significantly promoted ESG disclosures among non-financial listed companies in China from 2012 to 2022 [2][4] - A study highlighted the phenomenon of "ESG carbon washing," where companies overemphasize carbon responsibility to enhance their ESG image, particularly prevalent in the steel and aviation industries [2][4]
主题投资月度观察(2025年第6期):数字资产治理,金融创新加速-20250629
Guoxin Securities· 2025-06-29 05:06
Group 1 - Google DeepMind released AlphaGenome, an AI tool capable of predicting how human DNA sequences regulate biological processes, processing up to 1 million base pairs with significant efficiency improvements [7][6][4] - Meta partnered with Oakley to launch the Oakley Meta HSTN, a high-performance AI eyewear targeting sports enthusiasts, featuring voice control and enhanced battery life [13][8] - Tesla initiated a pilot program for its Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, marking a significant step towards the operational phase of autonomous ride-hailing [17][14] Group 2 - QuantumScape integrated the Cobra separator process into its battery production, achieving a major breakthrough in scalability and performance, with its QSE-5B solid-state cell showing promising specifications [20][18] - Google open-sourced the Gemini CLI, allowing developers to utilize its capabilities directly through the terminal, significantly enhancing command-line efficiency [23][21] - OpenAI launched the o3-pro model, an enhanced version of its previous model, excelling in deep reasoning and reliability, particularly in scientific and programming tasks [29][24] Group 3 - Ant Group and Junan International are positioning themselves in the Hong Kong virtual asset market, with plans to apply for stablecoin licenses following regulatory developments [65][63] - The successful clinical trial of an invasive brain-computer interface in China marks a significant advancement in neurotechnology, enabling a participant to control devices through thought [62][56] - The inaugural Jiangsu City Football League, "Su Super," has attracted significant sponsorship and interest, indicating a growing market for sports-related investments [68][66]
超长债周报:资金面收敛,超长债量升价跌-20250629
Guoxin Securities· 2025-06-29 05:05
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the Israel - Iran cease - fire, the funding situation continued to tighten near the half - year mark, and MLF was scaled back. The bond market adjusted slightly, and ultra - long bonds declined slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased significantly, and both the term spread and the variety spread remained flat [1][9][36] - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of June 27, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 20BP, at a historically low level. Considering that the funding rate will decline again after the half - year mark, the bond market is more likely to rise, but the term spread protection is limited [2][10] - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of June 27, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 4BP, at a historically extremely low level. The bond market is more likely to rise after the half - year mark, but the variety spread protection is limited [3][11] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - Last week, due to the Israel - Iran cease - fire, tightened funding near the half - year mark, and MLF scaling back, the bond market adjusted slightly, and ultra - long bonds declined slightly. Trading activity increased significantly, and both term and variety spreads remained flat [1][9][36] 2. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook 30 - year Treasury Bond - As of June 27, the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bond spread was 20BP, at a historically low level. The May GDP growth rate was about 5.0% year - on - year, down 0.1% from April but still higher than the annual target. May CPI was - 0.1% and PPI was - 3.1%, with deflation risks. Exports declined rapidly in May, and domestic housing prices turned negative month - on - month. After the half - year mark, the bond market is more likely to rise, but term spread protection is limited [2][10] 20 - year CDB Bond - As of June 27, the 20 - year CDB bond and 20 - year treasury bond spread was 4BP, at a historically extremely low level. Economic data shows similar characteristics as the 30 - year treasury bond situation. After the half - year mark, the bond market is more likely to rise, but variety spread protection is limited [3][11] 3. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - As of May 31, the balance of ultra - long bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years was 21.6823 trillion yuan, accounting for 14.4% of all bonds. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. By remaining maturity, the 30 - year variety has the highest proportion [12] 4. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (June 23 - 27, 2025), the issuance of ultra - long bonds increased significantly, totaling 389.9 billion yuan. By variety, local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main issuers. By term, 30 - year bonds had the largest issuance volume [17] This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan for this week is 33.6 billion yuan, all of which are ultra - long local government bonds [21] 5. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, ultra - long bond trading was very active, with a turnover of 1.3892 trillion yuan, accounting for 14.2% of all bonds. Compared with the previous week, trading activity increased significantly [23] Yield - Last week, due to various factors, the bond market adjusted slightly, and ultra - long bonds declined slightly. Yields of different - term and different - variety ultra - long bonds changed to varying degrees [36] Spread Analysis - Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, with an absolute low level. The benchmark 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bond spread was 20BP. The variety spread also remained flat, with an absolute low level. The benchmark 20 - year CDB bond and treasury bond spread was 4BP, and the 20 - year railway bond and treasury bond spread was 9BP [42][43] 6. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main 30 - year treasury bond futures contract TL2509 closed at 120.89 yuan, a decline of 0.35%. Trading volume increased significantly compared with the previous week, and open interest increased slightly [50]