1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View In H1 2025, the bond market first declined and then rose, followed by narrow - range fluctuations. Credit bond yields followed government bond yields, rising first and then falling, with credit spreads narrowing. Default risks continued to decline, mainly concentrated in private enterprises and the real - estate industry. The risk of downgrades in the ChinaBond market's implied ratings increased slightly, while the amount of upgrades was significantly lower than the same period last year [11][41]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Valuation Curve: Short - term Yields Rose Significantly - Yield changes: In H1 2025, the yields of 1 - year government bonds, 10 - year government bonds, and 10 - year policy bank bonds changed by 27BP, - 3BP, and - 2BP respectively. The yields of 3 - year AAA, 3 - year AA +, 3 - year AA, and 3 - year AA - changed by 6BP, - 0BP, - 1BP, and - 23BP respectively. Credit spreads of 3 - year AAA, 3 - year AA +, 3 - year AA, and 3 - year AA - decreased by 15BP, 22BP, 23BP, and 45BP respectively [12]. - Overall situation: Yields of medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds generally rose, while long - term interest - rate bond yields declined slightly. Credit bond yields mostly declined. Credit spreads of various varieties narrowed, with lower - grade and shorter - term credit spreads narrowing more. The 10 - 1 curve flattened [12]. 3.2 Government Bond Yields First Rose and Then Fell - Jan - Mar mid: The central bank suspended government bond trading and reduced liquidity injection, tightening the money market. Short - term government bond yields rose rapidly, and long - term yields also increased, showing a "bear - flattening" trend. The 1 - year government bond yield reached a high of 1.59%, and the 10 - year government bond yield reached 1.90% [14][15]. - Mar late - Apr: The money market eased slightly, and due to the China - US tariff "tug - of - war", the 10 - year government bond yield quickly declined and fluctuated within the range of 1.63% - 1.67% [15]. - May: The central bank announced RRR cuts and interest rate cuts. The 1 - year government bond yield briefly declined. After the positive result of China - US tariff negotiations and some institutional redemptions of bond funds, the 10 - year government bond yield fluctuated slightly upward and returned to 1.70% [15]. - May end - Jun: The money market improved. The central bank announced repurchase operations in advance. The yields of 1 - year and 10 - year government bonds fluctuated downward in a narrow range, reaching a low of 1.635% [15]. 3.3 Credit Spreads: Credit Spreads of All Grades Fluctuated and Narrowed - Jan - Mar mid: Interest - rate bonds quickly rebounded and rose, causing credit spreads to narrow passively. Before the Two Sessions, market expectations of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts led to a brief widening of credit spreads. After the Two Sessions, credit spreads narrowed again [19]. - Mar end - Apr early: The bond market recovered, government bond yields declined rapidly, and credit spreads widened slightly [20]. - May: After the implementation of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts, the money market loosened, and credit spreads narrowed again [20]. - Jun: The money market remained balanced and loose, short - term government bond yields declined, and credit spreads widened slightly [20]. - Overall: In H1 2025, 3 - year credit bonds of all grades first declined and then rose, followed by narrow - range fluctuations. Credit spreads narrowed overall, with short - term credit spreads narrowing faster [20]. 3.4 Slight Increase in the Risk of Downgrades in ChinaBond Market's Implied Ratings In H1 2025, the amount of credit bonds with downgraded ChinaBond market implied ratings was 175.1 billion, a slight year - on - year increase. The total amount of upgraded bonds was 114.8 billion, significantly lower than the same period last year. The proportion of urban investment bonds in the upgraded and downgraded samples was 24.3% and 2.8% respectively, both decreasing compared to the same period last year and the previous quarter [23]. 3.5 Default: Default Risks Declined, and the Default Rate of Real - Estate Bonds Decreased - In H1 2025, there was 1 new issuer with a first - time default. According to the broad default definition, the default amount was 6.5 billion, with a default rate of 0.02%, and the annualized default rate decreased significantly compared to previous years [2][29]. - Defaults were mainly concentrated in real - estate bonds and private enterprises. The real - estate bond default rate was 0.1%, with both the default scale and annualized default rate decreasing significantly year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter. The private enterprise default rate was 0.5%, and the annualized default rate continued to decline quarter - on - quarter [34]. 3.6 Still Low Recovery Rate In H1 2025, defaulted bonds recovered a principal of 5.525 billion. From 2014 to now, defaulted bonds have repaid a principal of 120.4 billion, with a repayment rate of overdue principal of 11.9% [2][39].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Government bond net financing was 259.4 billion yuan in the 25th week (6/16 - 6/22) and 671.4 billion yuan in the 26th week (6/23 - 6/29). As of the 25th week, the cumulative amount reached 7.0 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 3.7 trillion yuan [1][7]. - The net financing of treasury bonds plus the issuance of new local bonds was 204.8 billion yuan in the 25th week and 590.5 billion yuan in the 26th week. As of the 25th week, the cumulative general deficit was 5.3 trillion yuan, with a progress of 45.1% [1][7]. - Treasury bond net financing was 135.1 billion yuan in the 25th week and 111 billion yuan in the 26th week. As of the 25th week, the cumulative amount was 3.3 trillion yuan, with a progress of 49.1% [1][9]. - Local bond net financing was 124.3 billion yuan in the 25th week and 560.4 billion yuan in the 26th week. As of the 25th week, the cumulative amount was 3.8 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 2.1 trillion yuan [1][11]. - New general bond issuance was 27.2 billion yuan in the 25th week and 57.2 billion yuan in the 26th week. As of the 25th week, the cumulative amount was 388.2 billion yuan, with a progress of 48.5% [1][11]. - New special bond issuance was 42.5 billion yuan in the 25th week and 422.3 billion yuan in the 26th week. As of the 25th week, the cumulative amount was 1.7 trillion yuan, with a progress of 38.4% [2][14]. - Special new special bonds issued reached 425.6 billion yuan, and land reserve special bonds issued reached 192.5 billion yuan [2][14]. - Special refinancing bonds issuance was 52.7 billion yuan in the 25th week and 59.7 billion yuan in the 26th week. As of the 25th week, the cumulative amount was 1.7 trillion yuan, with a progress of 87% [2][29]. - Urban investment bond net financing was -7.2 billion yuan in the 25th week and is expected to be -36 billion yuan in the 26th week. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds was about 10.4 trillion yuan [2][30][32]. Summary by Related Catalogs Government Bond Net Financing - 25th week (6/16 - 6/22): 259.4 billion yuan; 26th week (6/23 - 6/29): 671.4 billion yuan. As of the 25th week, cumulative 7.0 trillion yuan, exceeding last year's same - period by 3.7 trillion yuan [1][7] Treasury Bond Net Financing - 25th week (6/16 - 6/22): 135.1 billion yuan; 26th week (6/23 - 6/29): 111 billion yuan. As of the 25th week, cumulative 3.3 trillion yuan, progress 49.1% [1][9] Local Bond Net Financing - 25th week (6/16 - 6/22): 124.3 billion yuan; 26th week (6/23 - 6/29): 560.4 billion yuan. As of the 25th week, cumulative 3.8 trillion yuan, exceeding last year's same - period by 2.1 trillion yuan [1][11] New General Bond Issuance - 25th week (6/16 - 6/22): 27.2 billion yuan; 26th week (6/23 - 6/29): 57.2 billion yuan. As of the 25th week, cumulative 388.2 billion yuan, progress 48.5% [1][11] New Special Bond Issuance - 25th week (6/16 - 6/22): 42.5 billion yuan; 26th week (6/23 - 6/29): 422.3 billion yuan. As of the 25th week, cumulative 1.7 trillion yuan, progress 38.4% [2][14] Special New Special Bonds - Issued 425.6 billion yuan [2][14] Land Reserve Special Bonds - Issued 192.5 billion yuan [2][14] Special Refinancing Bonds - 25th week (6/16 - 6/22): 52.7 billion yuan; 26th week (6/23 - 6/29): 59.7 billion yuan. As of the 25th week, cumulative 1.7 trillion yuan, progress 87% [2][29] Urban Investment Bonds - 25th week (6/16 - 6/22) net financing: -7.2 billion yuan; 26th week (6/23 - 6/29) expected net financing: -36 billion yuan. As of this week, balance about 10.4 trillion yuan [2][30][32]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors[1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating that the sector is expected to perform better than the market benchmark by more than 10% over the next 6 to 12 months [84]. Core Insights - The stablecoin ecosystem in Hong Kong is evolving with regulatory frameworks, including the upcoming implementation of the "Stablecoin Ordinance" on August 1, 2025, which will allow for the issuance of stablecoin licenses [16][17]. - Major players in the stablecoin market include Tether's USDT with a market cap exceeding $150 billion and Circle's USDC with over $60 billion, together accounting for nearly 87% of the market share [17]. - The report highlights the operational mechanisms of stablecoins, which include primary market issuance, secondary market circulation, and various use cases such as cross-border payments and virtual asset trading [11][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Stablecoin Operational Mechanism - The operational mechanism of stablecoins involves issuance, circulation, and application scenarios, with a focus on the role of custodial banks and asset management companies [11][13]. - Different types of stablecoins are categorized based on their backing mechanisms, including fiat-backed, crypto-backed, and algorithmic stablecoins [8][9]. 2. Hong Kong Stablecoin Ecosystem - The report outlines the participants in the Hong Kong stablecoin ecosystem, including issuers, custodial banks, and virtual asset trading platforms [62]. - Notable issuers include Standard Chartered Bank and Ant Group, which are developing Hong Kong dollar stablecoins [16][63]. 3. Integration of Traditional Financial Institutions - Traditional financial institutions are increasingly exploring the integration of stablecoins into their operations, with banks like JPMorgan and Santander considering the issuance of their own stablecoins [80]. - The report emphasizes the potential for stablecoins to enhance cross-border payment efficiency and reduce costs by bypassing traditional banking channels [78][79].

Group 1: Retail Industry Insights - The rise of new consumption is fundamentally driven by a significant change in consumer concepts under different economic and social backgrounds, with per capita GDP in China reaching 84,000 yuan in 2023, establishing a buyer's market [5][6] - Recent years have seen consumer budgets constrained by rigid expenditures and wealth effects, while the educational attainment of the post-95 and post-00 generations has increased, with a CAGR of 10.5% in the number of bachelor's degree graduates from 1998 to 2023 [5][6] - The ongoing urbanization and population migration trends have restructured consumption scenarios, shifting the focus from rapid population and wealth growth to product innovation and emotional consumption [5][6] Group 2: Consumer Behavior Changes - Product consumption is evolving from "survival-type" to "quality + emotional-type," with a notable trend towards domestic brand replacement and functional differentiation in the market [6][7] - Marketing strategies have transitioned from mass media advertising to content-driven e-commerce, enhancing advertising efficiency through a progression from brand advertising to performance advertising [6][7] - The channel dynamics have shifted towards online penetration, with a focus on consumer value rather than supplier value, emphasizing the importance of integrating public and private domains [6][7] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The investment in new consumption is not a fleeting trend; companies that establish strong brand recognition through product innovation are expected to have solid business barriers and sustainable growth [7] - Key sectors for investment include beauty and personal care, jewelry, and IP-driven products, with specific recommendations for companies such as Mao Ge Ping, Shanghai Jahwa, and Pop Mart [7] - The report emphasizes the need to assess the sustainability of explosive growth in companies within these sectors [7] Group 4: Mechanical Industry Developments - The mechanical industry is witnessing significant advancements, highlighted by events such as the International Humanoid Robot Exhibition in Hangzhou and investments in dexterous robotic hands by Ant Group [8][9] - Key developments include the introduction of various robotics applications and the growth of AI infrastructure, with a notable increase in 3D printing equipment production by 40% year-on-year [8][9] Group 5: Insurance Sector Analysis - The insurance sector is experiencing a shift towards lower guaranteed returns in products, with traditional life insurance's market share increasing to 56% by the end of 2024 [11][12] - Regulatory guidance is pushing down the preset interest rates for insurance products, with expected reductions in 2024 to 2.0% for ordinary products and 1.75% for dividend insurance [12][13] - The focus on increasing equity investments and enhancing the stability of returns through diversified asset allocation is becoming crucial for insurance companies [13][14]

- The report introduces a method for calculating index dividend points, which is crucial for estimating the premium or discount of stock index futures contracts. The formula for dividend points is: $$ Dividend\ Points = \frac{\sum_{n=1}^{N} \text{Dividend Amount of Component Stock}}{\text{Total Market Value of Component Stocks}} \times \text{Component Stock Weight} \times \text{Index Closing Price} $$ This calculation considers component stock weights, dividend amounts, and index closing prices[37][38][40] - Component stock weights are adjusted dynamically to ensure accuracy. The formula for weight adjustment is: $$ W_{n,t} = \frac{w_{i0} \times (1 + r_{n})}{\sum_{i=1}^{N} w_{i0} \times (1 + r_{n})} $$ Here, \( w_{i0} \) represents the weight at the last disclosed date, and \( r_{n} \) is the non-adjusted price change of the stock[41][42] - Dividend amounts are estimated using historical net profit distributions and dividend payout ratios. The formula is: $$ Dividend\ Amount = Net\ Profit \times Dividend\ Payout\ Ratio $$ Net profit is predicted based on historical stability or prior-year data, while dividend payout ratios are derived from historical averages[43][46][47] - The report uses a linear extrapolation method to predict ex-dividend dates based on historical intervals between announcement and ex-dividend dates. If historical data is unavailable or unreliable, default dates are applied[47][52][51] - The accuracy of the dividend point estimation model is validated by comparing predicted dividend points with actual values for major indices like SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500. The model shows high accuracy, with errors generally within 5 points for SSE 50 and CSI 300, and within 10 points for CSI 500[53][57][61] - The report tracks the premium and discount levels of stock index futures contracts, adjusted for dividend impacts. For example, as of June 25, 2025, the annualized premium for IH futures was 7.56%, while the annualized discount for IM futures was -6.77%[4][13][12] - Historical percentile levels of futures contracts are analyzed. For instance, IH futures are at the 97th percentile, IF futures at the 83rd percentile, IC futures at the 53rd percentile, and IM futures at the 34th percentile[26][30][35] - The report highlights the relationship between index coverage and discount depth, noting that smaller market cap indices tend to have deeper discounts[24][26][35] - The dividend progress of major indices is summarized, showing the number of companies at different stages (proposal, decision, implementation, completed, or no dividend). For example, in the CSI 1000 index, 529 companies have completed dividends, while 218 companies will not pay dividends[1][14][36] - The report provides sectoral dividend yield statistics, identifying coal, banking, and steel as the top three sectors with the highest median dividend yields[2][15][16] - The realized and remaining dividend yields for major indices are reported. For example, the SSE 50 index has a realized yield of 0.81% and a remaining yield of 1.45%[3][17][16] - The report includes time-series data on the premium and discount levels of major futures contracts from 2020 to 2025, offering insights into market sentiment and risk preferences[18][21][26]

资产端：提高权益投资规模，OCI 扩容增强收益稳定性。长端利率维持低位 叠加 IFRS9 会计准则，险企面临固收资产收益下行及权益资产波动等压力。 此外，优质非标投资下占比降显著，进一步加大险企资产端收益压力。在此 背景下，权益投资结构性调整显著。险资持续聚焦高股息行业，加大 OCI 权 益资产配置力度，在平滑投资波动的同时把握中长期稳定现金流。此外，行 业通过长期投资改革试点探索"长钱长投"模式以平滑波动。近年来保险资 金股票配置占比有所提升。基于过去三年险资配置行为，我们分别测算了人 身险行业及财险行业 2025 年至 2027 年的综合投资收益率。我们预计人身险 未来三年综合投资收益率 4.06%、3.93%、3.92%，财险为 4.14%、3.98%、3.96%。 风险提示：保费收入不及预期；资本市场延续震荡；长端利率下行等。 随着资管新规执行深入，预定利率相对较高的储蓄型保险吸引大量"存款搬 家"资金涌入，推高相应险种的保费规模和市场占有率。截至 2024 年末， 传统寿险占行业总保费收入的比例为 56%，较 2019 年提升三个百分点。不同 于侧重疾病保障功能的健康险，大多储蓄型保险具备更强的理财 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月25日 资产端：提高权益投资规模，OCI 扩容增强收益稳定性。长端利率维持低位 叠加 IFRS9 会计准则，险企面临固收资产收益下行及权益资产波动等压力。 此外，优质非标投资下占比降显著，进一步加大险企资产端收益压力。在此 背景下，权益投资结构性调整显著。险资持续聚焦高股息行业，加大 OCI 权 益资产配置力度，在平滑投资波动的同时把握中长期稳定现金流。此外，行 业通过长期投资改革试点探索"长钱长投"模式以平滑波动。近年来保险资 金股票配置占比有所提升。基于过去三年险资配置行为，我们分别测算了人 身险行业及财险行业 2025 年至 2027 年的综合投资收益率。我们预计人身险 未来三年综合投资收益率 4.06%、3.93%、3.92%，财险为 4.14%、3.98%、3.96%。 风险提示：保费收入不及预期；资本市场延续震荡；长端利率下行等。 投资建议：综合以上分析，我们认为随着负债端成本较快下行和资产端高分 红资产稳定投资收益，上市险企利差风险持续收窄，为基本面持续改善带来 持续催化。进入三季度，预计预定利率将再次下调，短期"炒停售"或将激 活短期保费增量，中长期利好负债成 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the mechanical equipment industry [4][30]. Core Views - The humanoid robot sector is highlighted for its growth potential, with a focus on key suppliers and companies with strong market positions. Specific components such as joint modules, dexterous hands, and reducers are identified as critical areas for investment [2][3]. - AI infrastructure is expected to see continued capital expenditure growth driven by demand for data centers, benefiting companies involved in gas turbines and chillers [2]. - The low-altitude economy is progressing rapidly, with a national low-altitude traffic project initiated to standardize air traffic management [3]. - The smart welding robot market is projected to grow significantly, particularly in the steel structure industry, with a market potential nearing 100 billion [3]. - 3D printing technology is gaining traction in various sectors, including aerospace and consumer electronics, due to its advantages in creating complex structures and reducing development cycles [3]. - X-ray detection equipment is experiencing rapid growth driven by demand in healthcare and industrial sectors, with a focus on domestic production of core components [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Recent developments include the introduction of various humanoid robots and AI infrastructure projects, such as the opening of a new data center by Alibaba Cloud in South Korea [1][19]. - The report notes significant growth in 3D printing equipment production, with a year-on-year increase of 40% in May [20]. Government News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission supports the application of the fifth set of listing standards for companies in cutting-edge technology sectors, including AI and low-altitude economy [21]. Company Developments - Notable partnerships and investments include Demar Technology's strategic agreement with Zhiyuan Robotics and Qinan Co., Ltd.'s investment in Moxian Technology [23][24]. - Midea's humanoid robot has successfully begun operations in its factories, marking a significant step in automation [16]. - The launch of the Star Motion Q5 intelligent robot showcases advancements in flexible joint technology and AI control systems [18]. Key Company Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Several companies are rated as "Outperform the Market," including Green's Harmonics, Huichuan Technology, and Zhaowei Electric, with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth for 2024 and 2025 [7][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The rise of new consumption is fundamentally driven by a significant change in consumer concepts shaped by the economic and social context of different generations, particularly from the 70s to the 00s [4][5] - The current consumer market is characterized by a shift from "survival-type" products to "quality + emotional-type" products, with a focus on emotional value and quality-price ratio [4][10] - Investment logic in new consumption should focus on sustainable growth capabilities rather than short-term speculative opportunities, emphasizing product innovation and strong brand recognition [4] Summary by Sections 1. Economic and Demographic Background of Consumption Changes - The per capita GDP in China has grown from over 10,000 RMB in 1995 to 84,000 RMB in 2023, establishing a buyer's market [4][15] - Consumer spending is increasingly constrained by rigid expenditures on housing, healthcare, and education, alongside wealth effects [4][19] - The educational attainment of the 95/00 generation has significantly increased, with a CAGR of 10.5% in the number of undergraduate graduates from 1998 to 2023 [4][23] - Urbanization rates have remained high, influencing consumption patterns and driving the reconstruction of consumption scenarios [4][24] 2. Product Evolution - The transition in consumer products reflects a shift towards quality and emotional engagement, with head brands focusing on domestic alternatives and functional trends [4][10] - The market has seen a rise in low-cost, emotionally valuable products, such as beauty care, jewelry, and IP toys, which are now key segments [4][10] 3. Marketing Evolution - Marketing strategies have evolved from traditional brand advertising to performance-driven advertising, with a focus on maximizing advertising efficiency [4][10] - The rise of digital platforms has transformed marketing channels, emphasizing the importance of consumer engagement and conversion rates [4][10] 4. Channel Evolution - The shift towards online channels has significantly increased penetration rates across various categories, with a focus on consumer value rather than supplier value [4][10] - The integration of public and private domains has become crucial for navigating the challenges posed by traditional retail models [4][10]