证 券 研 究 报 告 计算机行业重大事项点评 推荐（维持） 国家数据基建提速，应用生态加速成熟 事项： ❑ 2025 年 8 月 14 日，国家数据局副局长夏冰在国新办"高质量完成'十四五' 规划"系列新闻发布会上介绍了国家数据基础设施的建设进展。他表示，国家 数据基础设施的提出与推进，是顺应数据科技迭代和人工智能快速发展的重要 举措，强调以释放数据价值为核心，重点建设运营数据流通与应用平台，并融 合网络、技术、标准与规范体系。 评论： 行业研究 计算机 2025 年 08 月 28 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴鸣远 邮箱：wumingyuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040001 联系人：周楚薇 邮箱：zhouchuwei@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 337 | 0.04 | | 总市值(亿元) | 59,658.75 | 5.10 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 53,179.64 | 5.65 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Bilibili (BILI) [1] Core Views - The company's Q2 2025 financial results exceeded expectations, with total revenue reaching 7.34 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 20%, aligning with Bloomberg consensus [1] - The adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 560 million yuan, marking a return to profitability and surpassing Bloomberg consensus by 8% [1] Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2024A: 26,832 million yuan - 2025E: 30,071 million yuan (YOY +12.1%) - 2026E: 32,638 million yuan (YOY +8.5%) - 2027E: 34,899 million yuan (YOY +6.9%) [4] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2024A: -1,347 million yuan - 2025E: 903 million yuan (YOY +167.0%) - 2026E: 1,986 million yuan (YOY +120.0%) - 2027E: 3,029 million yuan (YOY +52.5%) [4] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024: -3.20 yuan - 2025: 2.15 yuan - 2026: 4.72 yuan - 2027: 7.20 yuan [4] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025E: 75.3 - Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio for 2025E: 4.5 [4] - **Target Price**: The target price is set at $27.52, with the current price at $22.74 [4] Business Segment Performance - **Gaming Business**: Revenue for Q2 2025 was 1.61 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 60%, driven by the success of the "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" game [8] - **Advertising Business**: Revenue reached 2.45 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-over-year increase of 20%, benefiting from AI-driven efficiency and e-commerce demand [8] - **VAS (Value-Added Services) Business**: Revenue was 2.84 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-over-year increase of 11%, supported by live streaming and other services [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Wuliangye [2][6] Core Views - The company demonstrated resilience in its financial performance, with H1 2025 revenue of 52.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, and a net profit of 19.49 billion yuan, up 2.3% [2][6] - The target price is set at 215 yuan, reflecting confidence in the company's growth potential and dividend support [2][6] - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on enhancing marketing execution and operational efficiency, which is expected to drive future growth [6] Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 89.175 billion yuan, with a decline of 5.1% in 2025 to 84.646 billion yuan, followed by a recovery to 87.270 billion yuan in 2026 and 93.496 billion yuan in 2027 [2][9] - Net profit is forecasted to decrease from 31.853 billion yuan in 2024 to 28.723 billion yuan in 2025, before rising to 29.357 billion yuan in 2026 and 31.940 billion yuan in 2027 [2][9] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is expected to be 8.21 yuan in 2024, decreasing to 7.40 yuan in 2025, then slightly increasing to 7.56 yuan in 2026 and 8.23 yuan in 2027 [2][9] - **Valuation Ratios**: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected at 15 for 2024, increasing to 17 for 2025 and 2026, and returning to 15 in 2027 [2][9] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decrease from 3.7 in 2024 to 3.1 in 2027 [2][9] Market Performance - The report notes that Wuliangye's stock price has shown resilience compared to the CSI 300 index, with a notable performance over the past 12 months [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 75.13 CNY per share and 49.06 HKD per share for its AH shares [2][8]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 1.839 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.49%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 44.38% to 194 million CNY [2][8]. - The FPGA product line experienced significant growth, with revenue reaching 681 million CNY in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.15% [8]. - The demand for high-reliability products is improving, although high inventory levels are impacting short-term profit performance [8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 3,590 million CNY, 4,220 million CNY, 4,850 million CNY, and 5,510 million CNY respectively, with expected growth rates of 1.5%, 17.5%, 14.9%, and 13.6% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 573 million CNY in 2024A, increasing to 1,227 million CNY by 2027E, with growth rates of -20.4%, 40.3%, 28.1%, and 19.3% respectively [4]. - The company’s gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 56.8%, a slight increase of 0.31 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Market Performance - The company’s stock price as of August 27, 2025, was 58.60 CNY, with a 12-month high of 58.60 CNY and a low of 23.68 CNY [5][8]. - The report indicates that the company has maintained a competitive advantage in the smart meter chip product line, achieving revenue of 248 million CNY in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.98% [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Tianwei Foods (603317) [2][8] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 1.39 billion yuan for H1 2025, a decrease of 5.2% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 190 million yuan, down 23.0%. However, Q2 showed a recovery with revenue of 749 million yuan, an increase of 21.9%, and a net profit of 115 million yuan, up 62.7% [2][8] - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth for the full year 2025, driven by the recovery in its main business and contributions from newly consolidated businesses [8] Financial Performance Summary - **2025 H1 Financials**: - Total revenue: 1.39 billion yuan, down 5.2% YoY - Net profit: 190 million yuan, down 23.0% - Q2 revenue: 749 million yuan, up 21.9% - Q2 net profit: 115 million yuan, up 62.7% [2][8] - **Future Financial Projections**: - 2024A: Total revenue of 3.476 billion yuan, net profit of 625 million yuan - 2025E: Total revenue of 3.58 billion yuan, net profit of 615 million yuan - 2026E: Total revenue of 3.939 billion yuan, net profit of 698 million yuan - 2027E: Total revenue of 4.325 billion yuan, net profit of 789 million yuan [4][8] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2025E: 0.58 yuan - 2026E: 0.66 yuan - 2027E: 0.74 yuan [4][8] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025: 27.6 times - Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio for 2025: 2.9 times [4][8] Market Performance - The stock price as of August 27, 2025, was 12.37 yuan, with a target price set at 16 yuan [4][8] - The company has shown a recovery in Q2, with a gross margin of 37.0%, up 3.6 percentage points YoY, indicating improved profitability [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 18.2 yuan [1][6]. Core Views - The company shows resilience in the B-end business while the C-end continues to improve, with Q2 revenue growth approaching double digits, exceeding previous expectations [6]. - The company has optimized its product structure, leading to an increase in gross margin, with a Q2 gross margin of 34.7%, up by 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [6]. - The company is expected to maintain stable growth in revenue and profit in the second half of the year, driven by product innovation and channel network expansion [6]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 2,894 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.2% [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 264 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.4% [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.66 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21 times [2][6]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 2,334 million yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 13.7% [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 21 yuan [2][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.526 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.01%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 397 million yuan, up 33.76% year-on-year [2][8]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 2.901 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.46%, and a net profit of 263 million yuan, which is a 27.37% increase year-on-year [2][8]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.7 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 60.2474 million yuan, corresponding to a dividend payout ratio of 15% [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - The total revenue forecast for 2024 is 10.665 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of 5.0% in 2025, 5.6% in 2026, and 5.8% in 2027 [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 538 million yuan in 2024, with growth rates of 33.4% in 2025, 15.8% in 2026, and 14.4% in 2027 [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.62 yuan in 2024, increasing to 0.83 yuan in 2025, 0.97 yuan in 2026, and 1.10 yuan in 2027 [4]. Sales and Profitability Insights - The company has shown a significant improvement in sales structure and cost optimization, leading to a gross margin of 30.49% in Q2 2025, an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [8]. - The sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios were 15.9%, 2.93%, 0.43%, and 0.77%, respectively, with an overall expense ratio decline of 0.38 percentage points year-on-year [8]. - The net profit margin reached 9.36%, up 1.67 percentage points year-on-year, indicating strong profitability [8]. Growth Drivers and Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain revenue growth in the second half of 2025, driven by the stability of ambient milk and continued growth in low-temperature milk [8]. - The focus on low-temperature milk and product innovation is anticipated to enhance revenue resilience and profitability [8]. - The company has adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 to 0.83, 0.97, and 1.10 yuan, respectively, reflecting a positive outlook on earnings growth [8].

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant increase in the search heat for the keyword "A-shares" since June, indicating growing investor interest as the market surpasses 3,800 points [3][4]. - The media platform discussion heat index shows a rising trend in A-share discussions across various platforms, with notable spikes correlating with significant market events [4]. Group 2 - The keyword "bull market" has seen a notable increase in search heat, particularly on Kuaishou and Toutiao, while Baidu and Douyin have shown relatively flat growth [6][7]. - Kuaishou has led the growth in the "stock account opening" keyword searches, with a significant upward trend observed since October [9][10]. Group 3 - The "stock market trends" keyword has also experienced a surge in search heat, with Kuaishou showing explosive growth since August, nearly matching the peak levels observed in October [12][13]. - For the "stock recommendations" keyword, Toutiao has led the search heat, particularly with a significant increase noted from June onwards [15][16]. Group 4 - The "margin trading" keyword has seen a notable increase in search heat since July, with Douyin showing the largest upward movement compared to other platforms [18][19]. - The keyword "stock investors" has also seen substantial growth, with Kuaishou leading the trend since August, followed closely by Toutiao [21][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Sichuan Jiuzhou (000801) [1] Core Views - The company achieved significant growth in Q2, with a focus on the low-altitude sector, aiming to establish a viable commercial ecosystem [1] - The company has signed strategic agreements with multiple enterprises to actively participate in low-altitude management and infrastructure development [6] - The report highlights the potential for third-party low-altitude inspection and testing services, indicating a strategic opportunity for the company [6] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2024A is projected at 4,178 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.0%, increasing to 6,209 million by 2027E with a growth rate of 16.6% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 194 million in 2024A, with a decline of 3.0%, and is projected to grow to 333 million by 2027E, with a growth rate of 21.2% [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.19 in 2024A to 0.33 in 2027E [2] Business Segment Performance - In H1 2025, the smart terminal products generated revenue of 11.82 billion, a growth of 3.72%, while air traffic management products achieved 4.61 billion, growing by 10.07% [6] - The company’s subsidiary, Sichuan Jiuzhou Air Traffic Management Technology, reported a net profit of 0.46 billion in H1 2025 [6] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on low-altitude economic development, with plans to enhance its testing capabilities and establish model projects in low-altitude infrastructure [6] - Collaborations with logistics companies like SF Express aim to create a new ecosystem for low-altitude logistics [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 84.8 CNY [2][3] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with revenue reaching 20.5 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 26.7%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 2.97 billion CNY, up 40.1% [2][3] - The electric vehicle sector continues to drive significant profit growth, with the company's subsidiary achieving a revenue of 9.15 billion CNY, a 50.8% increase year-on-year [6][2] - The company is actively expanding its international presence, with overseas revenue growing by 39% in the first half of 2025 [6][2] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 46.5 billion CNY, 55.5 billion CNY, and 65.7 billion CNY respectively, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to be 5.71 billion CNY, 6.87 billion CNY, and 8.12 billion CNY [2][7] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow from 1.59 CNY in 2024 to 3.01 CNY in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [2][7] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 45 in 2024 to 24 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [2][7]