证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】 土地溢价率明显回落——每周经济观察第 17 期 ❖ 每周经济观察： （一）景气向上： 1、耐用品消费：4 月前三周，汽车零售继续回落。4 月第三周，乘用车零零 售增速 17%，前值 13%。4 月前 20 日，乘用车零售增速同比 11.8%。3 月全月， 乘用车零售增速同比+14.4%。 2、土地：周度溢价率明显回落。截至 4 月 20 日当周，百城土地溢价率为 4.27%， 近三周平均为 7.7%；3 月全月为 13.24%；2 月全月为 10.72%。 3、水泥发运率有所回落。截至 4 月 25 日当周，水泥发运率为 40.33%，持平 上周，但低于 4 月初，去年同期为 40.5%。 4、贸易：近一周美国进口额与进口量下滑。4 月 24 日当周，美国进口金额和 进口集装箱量均出现较大幅度下滑，分别环比上周下降约 27.8%、24.3%，其 中，从中国进口金额环比-27.3%，从中国进口集装箱量环比-29.1%。 5、物价：金价回调，油价走弱。COMEX 黄金收于 3272.2 美金/盎司，下跌 1.5%；美油收于 63.02 美元/桶，下跌 2.6%，布油收于 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral investment rating to the company, indicating expectations of performance within a range of -10% to +10% relative to the benchmark index over the next six months [52]. Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of NT$578.6 billion, a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 4.2% but a year-over-year increase of 5.9%. The gross margin was 26.7%, down 3.7 percentage points from the previous quarter [2][3][8]. - The company expects wafer shipments to increase by 5%-7% in Q2 2025, with gross margins projected to recover to around 30% and capacity utilization returning to approximately 70% [4][20]. - Demand in the consumer electronics sector showed strong growth in Q1 2025, with expectations for moderate rebounds in various downstream demands in Q2 2025 [21]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Q1 2025 Overall Performance - **Revenue and Shipment**: The company achieved consolidated revenue of NT$578.6 billion in Q1 2025, with wafer shipments remaining stable compared to the previous quarter and a 12% increase year-over-year [3][8]. - **Gross Margin**: The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 26.7%, impacted by a decrease in average selling prices and disruptions due to a recent earthquake [8][11]. - **Capacity Situation**: Capacity was affected by an earthquake and annual maintenance, but is expected to normalize in Q2 2025 [11]. 2. Company Q2 2025 Guidance - **Performance Guidance**: The company anticipates a 5%-7% increase in wafer shipments for Q2 2025, with stable ASP and a recovery in gross margin to about 30% [20]. - **Demand Outlook**: Strong growth in consumer electronics is expected to continue, while other sectors may experience fluctuations [21]. 3. Revenue Structure - **By Region**: In Q1 2025, revenue from Asia accounted for 66%, North America 22%, Europe 7%, and Japan 5% [12][13]. - **By Application**: The consumer sector contributed 34% to revenue, while communication and computer sectors remained relatively stable [16][17]. - **By Process Technology**: Revenue from 22nm and 28nm processes reached 37%, with a significant increase in demand for 22nm products expected in the coming quarters [18][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company with a target price of 12.24 CNY [1][7]. Core Views - The company has achieved significant growth in its financial performance, with a 2024 revenue of 60.514 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.23%, and a net profit of 0.825 billion CNY, up 160.36% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 continues this trend with a revenue of 15.666 billion CNY, a 49.06% increase, and a net profit of 0.247 billion CNY, up 138.20% year-on-year [1][3]. - The modified plastics, green petrochemicals, and new materials businesses have all seen growth in both sales and revenue, contributing to the overall performance improvement [1][3]. Financial Summary - **2024 Financial Performance**: Total revenue reached 60.514 billion CNY with a year-on-year growth of 26.23%. Net profit was 0.825 billion CNY, marking a 160.36% increase [1][3]. - **2025 Q1 Performance**: Revenue for the first quarter was 15.666 billion CNY, a 49.06% increase year-on-year, with net profit at 0.247 billion CNY, up 138.20% [1][3]. - **Sales Growth**: The modified plastics business sold 2.5515 million tons in 2024, a 20.78% increase, generating revenue of 32.075 billion CNY, up 18.95%. In Q1 2025, sales were 604,400 tons, a 25.26% increase, with revenue of 7.620 billion CNY, up 30.67% [1][7]. - **New Materials Business**: In 2024, sales reached 236,000 tons, a 32.51% increase, with revenue of 3.654 billion CNY, up 15.73%. Q1 2025 saw sales of 56,000 tons, a 26.13% increase, and revenue of 0.867 billion CNY, up 32.41% [1][7]. - **Green Petrochemicals**: Revenue for 2024 was 11.436 billion CNY, a 22.30% increase, with a gross margin improvement to -6.36%. In Q1 2025, sales were 447,500 tons, a 118.51% increase, with revenue of 3.289 billion CNY, up 126.79% [1][7]. Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to maintain rapid growth in modified plastics and new materials, supported by its global expansion and new market opportunities. Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.414 billion CNY, 1.902 billion CNY, and 2.379 billion CNY, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 71.5%, 34.5%, and 25.1% respectively [1][7].

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 古井贡酒（000596）2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 强推（维持） Q1 实现开门红，稳健增长可期 事项： ❖ 公司发布 24 年报及 25 年一季报，24 年营收 235.8 亿元，同增 16.4%;归母净 利润 55.2 亿元，同增 20.2%，分红率达 57.5%，同比提升 5.7pcts;测算单 Q4 实 现营收 45.1 亿元，同增 4.9%;归母净利润 7.7 亿元，同减 0.7%。25Q1 营收/归 母净利润分别为 91.5/23.3 亿元，同比+10.4%/+12.8%。Q1 末合同负债 36.7 亿 元，环比 24Q4 末上升 1.59 亿元。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 23,578 | 26,086 | 28,813 | 31,758 | | 同比增速(%) | 16.4% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 10.2% | | 归母净利润( ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [22]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2025 performance aligns with expectations, achieving a revenue of 649 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 52.59%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 108 million yuan, up 53.69% year-over-year [1][7]. - The growth is driven by strong performance in the precision flexible components for consumer electronics and the precision metal components from Huayang Tong, with significant contributions from major clients [7]. - The company has established a solid partnership with major clients, including Apple and Google, positioning itself well for future growth in the die-cutting market [7]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the total revenue is projected at 2,486 million yuan, with a year-over-year growth rate of 36.7%. By 2025, revenue is expected to reach 4,130 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 66.1% [3][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 457 million yuan in 2024, increasing to 700 million yuan in 2025, with respective growth rates of 62.4% and 53.2% [3][8]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 1.78 yuan in 2024 to 2.73 yuan in 2025 [3][8]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing AI development trends, particularly in the server and communication equipment sectors, which are expected to see increased demand [7]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 54.6 yuan, based on a 20x price-to-earnings ratio for 2025, compared to the current price of 31.71 yuan [3][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 18.2 CNY [1][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.651 billion CNY for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.91%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 22.52% to 233 million CNY. For Q1 2025, revenue was 669 million CNY, up 7.18% year-on-year, while net profit fell by 4.19% to 58 million CNY [1][3][7]. - The company is expected to continue its stable revenue growth, with a projected annual revenue increase of over 10% for 2025, driven by improvements in both B-end and C-end markets. The report highlights the potential for profit recovery in the coming quarters [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - **2024 Financials**: Total revenue reached 2,651 million CNY, with a net profit of 233 million CNY. The gross margin was 32.8%, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year. The company maintained stable expense ratios across sales, management, and R&D [3][8]. - **2025 Projections**: Expected revenue growth of 11.0% to 2,943 million CNY, with net profit projected to rise by 19.7% to 279 million CNY. The EPS is forecasted to be 0.70 CNY [3][7]. - **Long-term Outlook**: The company aims to transition from a restaurant supply chain to a food supply chain enterprise, which is anticipated to open new growth avenues in the future [7][8]. Revenue and Profit Trends - The company has shown resilience with a revenue growth of 12.6% in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 combined. The breakdown indicates that revenue from the mixed seasoning segment grew by 13.2%, while the light cooking segment saw a growth of 10.4% [7][8]. - The report notes that the company’s net profit margin is expected to gradually improve throughout 2025, with a focus on enhancing operational efficiency and product innovation [7][8].

事项： 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 777,102 | 1,093,172 | 1,314,867 | 1,527,268 | | 同比增速(%) | 29.0% | 40.7% | 20.3% | 16.2% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 40,254 | 57,985 | 70,375 | 81,390 | | 同比增速(%) | 34.0% | 44.0% | 21.4% | 15.7% | | 每股盈利(元) | 13.25 | 19.08 | 23.16 | 26.78 | | 市盈率(倍) | 28 | 19 | 16 | 14 | | 市净率(倍) | 6.1 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 证 券 研 究 报 告 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 4 月 25 比亚迪（002594）2025 年一季报点评 强推（维持） 业绩符合预期，关注智能化及海外进展 目 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Luzhou Laojiao (000568) with a target price of 206 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 31.2 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.5 billion CNY, up 1.7% year-on-year. The fourth quarter saw a revenue decline of 16.9% and a net profit drop of 29.9% [1][7]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.35 billion CNY, a 1.8% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.59 billion CNY, up 0.4% year-on-year. However, sales receipts decreased by 7.3% [1][7]. - The company is focusing on market expansion and improving product coverage, with a three-year dividend plan ensuring a payout ratio of at least 65% in 2024, 70% in 2025, and 75% in 2026, enhancing its attractiveness for long-term investors [1][7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 31.2 billion CNY, with expected growth rates of 2.4% in 2025, 6.7% in 2026, and 7.4% in 2027 [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 13.8 billion CNY in 2025, with growth rates of 2.1% in 2025, 7.1% in 2026, and 8.7% in 2027 [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is estimated to be 9.35 CNY in 2025, increasing to 10.01 CNY in 2026 and 10.89 CNY in 2027 [3]. Operational Insights - The company is experiencing a steady operational performance, with a focus on digital transformation to enhance pricing systems and inventory management [7]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was reported at 86.5%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points compared to the previous year, attributed to the impact of digital product introductions [7]. - The company aims to improve market penetration in various regions, particularly in Southwest and North China, while also enhancing its high-end product pricing strategy [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [4][23]. Core Views - The company achieved record high performance in 2024, with a revenue of 3.263 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 49.94%, and a net profit of 460 million yuan, up 272.47% year-on-year [7][8]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic smart audio SoC sector, with a diversified revenue structure and a strong focus on R&D in AI and wearable technology [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 3.263 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 49.94%, and a net profit of 460 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 272.47% [7][8]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 999.5 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 52.25% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25.88% [7]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 reached 38.47%, with net profit margins of 14.11% for 2024 and 19.16% for Q1 2025, indicating improved profitability [7][8]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 4.920 billion yuan, 6.315 billion yuan, and 7.557 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 923 million yuan, 1.304 billion yuan, and 1.660 billion yuan [8][9]. - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 7.69 yuan, 10.86 yuan, and 13.83 yuan respectively [8][9]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its R&D capabilities, particularly in Wi-Fi, NPU, and ISP technologies, to maintain its competitive edge in the smart wearable and smart home markets [7]. - The report highlights the growing trend of edge AI, with the company launching new products like the MYVU AR smart glasses and Ola Friend AI earphones, which are expected to drive future growth [7][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" with a target price of 13.5 CNY [1][6]. Core Views - The company continues to face revenue pressure, with a year-on-year decline of approximately 32% in Q1 2025. The decline is attributed to high base effects from the previous year and a reduction in foot traffic in offline channels [6][7]. - The net profit margin decline has narrowed, indicating potential operational improvements as cost control measures take effect. The company is expected to gradually recover as sales increase and the base effects diminish [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - Total revenue is projected to be 6,838 million CNY in 2024, increasing to 7,172 million CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 4.9% [2]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - The net profit for 2024 is estimated at 653 million CNY, with a significant increase to 866 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 32.7% [2]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is expected to rise from 0.38 CNY in 2024 to 0.51 CNY in 2025 [2]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 28 in 2024 to 21 in 2025, indicating a more attractive valuation as earnings improve [2]. Operational Insights - **Sales Channels**: - Online sales have shown a slight recovery, while offline sales continue to struggle, with declines of 15.78% and 42.62% respectively in Q1 2025 [6][7]. - **Cost Management**: - The company has managed to reduce its sales expense ratio to 30.3%, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved efficiency in marketing expenditures [6][7]. - **Product Performance**: - The main brand and other product lines have experienced varying revenue impacts, with the domestic main brand seeing a decline of 36.37% [6][7]. Future Outlook - The company is implementing strategies to attract consumers back to offline channels through promotions and product sampling, while also focusing on maintaining profitability in online sales [6][7]. - The overall expectation is for gradual operational recovery starting from Q2 2025 as the company continues to execute its strategic adjustments [6][7].