Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the liquor industry, specifically for leading companies in the sector [2]. Core Viewpoints - The liquor industry is currently undergoing extreme pressure testing due to weak demand and intensified policy enforcement, leading to an anticipated bottoming out around mid-year [12][19]. - It is suggested that leading liquor companies should lower their annual growth targets to stabilize pricing systems and build long-term brand value [7][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy execution and the adjustment of annual targets by liquor companies as key indicators for market recovery [9][19]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The liquor industry is facing significant challenges, including a weak demand environment and strict policy enforcement that has led to a decline in consumption [12][13]. - The total market capitalization of the liquor sector is approximately 30,170.68 billion, with 20 listed companies [3]. Performance Metrics - The absolute performance of the liquor sector has declined by 5.8% over the past month, 8.8% over six months, and 6.0% over the past year [4]. Policy Impact - Recent government policies aimed at reducing waste and curbing extravagant spending have negatively impacted liquor consumption, particularly in the restaurant sector [12][13]. - The report notes that the execution of these policies has varied by region, with some areas experiencing stricter enforcement than others [14]. Investment Logic - The report identifies three perspectives on the safety margin for leading liquor companies: high dividend yields, low price-to-earnings ratios, and potential for increased institutional investment [8]. - Leading companies like Moutai and Wuliangye are highlighted for their strong market positions and attractive dividend yields, which exceed 4% [8]. Comparative Analysis - The report compares Moutai and Pop Mart, noting that both possess strong consumer, collectible, and financial attributes, but differ in demand elasticity and product matrix [24][27]. - Moutai's demand is driven by consumption and gifting, while Pop Mart relies on its IP-driven product strategy [25][27]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that investors should focus on acquiring shares of leading liquor companies during this strategic bottoming phase, as the long-term commercial attributes remain strong despite short-term pressures [7][8]. - Specific recommendations include Moutai, Gujing, and Wuliangye as primary targets for investment [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report The research on the regulatory framework, fund operation, bond - allocation behavior, and the latest characteristics of the bank wealth - management industry's development is of great reference value for bond - market trend analysis. The bank wealth - management sector currently faces challenges such as the rectification of net - value smoothing methods, difficulty in achieving performance benchmarks in a low - interest - rate environment, and potential shrinkage of small and medium - sized banks' wealth - management scale, which may affect bond - allocation preferences. The report also provides strategies for bond investment to respond to the institutional behavior changes of bank wealth - management [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overview of Bank Wealth - Management Bond Allocation - As of the end of 2024, the bank wealth - management bond - allocation scale reached 18.6 trillion yuan, ranking third in the market and accounting for 10.5% of the 177 - trillion - yuan balance of China's bond - market custody. In recent years, affected by the redemption wave, the growth rate of bank wealth - management bond allocation first declined and then rebounded. Bank wealth - management prefers credit bonds and certificates of deposit in bond - allocation [1][13]. 2. Wealth - Management Regulatory Rules: A Multi - layer Regulatory Framework Led by the New Asset Management Regulations (1) Evolution of Wealth - Management Supervision - Since the introduction of the New Asset Management Regulations in 2018, a multi - layer regulatory framework of "New Asset Management Regulations - Wealth - Management Regulations and Wealth - Management Company Regulations + Supporting Rules for Wealth - Management Business Supervision + Valuation Methods + Window Guidance" has been formed. The New Asset Management Regulations initiated the era of net - value transformation, while the Wealth - Management Regulations and Wealth - Management Company Regulations carried out wealth - management business in a dual - track system [19]. (2) Regulatory Details of Bank Wealth - Management Product Investment and Operation - **Investment Scope**: Private - placement wealth management has a wider investment scope than public - placement wealth management, and public - placement wealth management can invest in non - standard assets and large - denomination certificates of deposit to increase returns compared with public - offering funds. There are also slight differences in supervision between commercial banks and wealth - management subsidiaries [25]. - **Investment Ratio**: The 80% investment ratio of major asset classes is the basis for product - type classification. The upper limit of non - standard asset investment is 35%. The liquidity - asset ratio requirement is similar to that of funds, and the credit - rating limit for cash - management products is in line with that of money - market funds. The concentration limit basically follows the requirements of the New Asset Management Regulations, with an exception clause for investment in index bond funds [2][30]. - **Leverage and Maturity Requirements**: The leverage requirements are the same as those of funds, with upper limits of 120%, 140%, and 200%. The maturity requirements aim to reduce the risk of maturity mismatch [2]. - **Valuation Method Requirements**: Specific products can use the amortized cost method, including cash - management wealth management and closed - end wealth management with the mixed - valuation method. The amortized cost method also needs to meet the requirements of the "Accounting Treatment Provisions for Asset Management Products". Market - value method requires the use of third - party valuation, and the means of smoothing net value have been gradually rectified [2]. 3. Bank Wealth - Management Operation: How to Respond to Net - Value Transformation? (1) Source of Funds - Since 2022, the wealth - management scale has gone through three stages: "fluctuating growth - redemption shrinkage - recovery growth". Individual investors are the main participants, preferring low - volatility and stable products. The proportion of parent - bank sales has been continuously declining [3][51]. (2) Asset Allocation - **Major Asset Allocation**: After the redemption wave in 2022, bank wealth - management increased the allocation of monetary assets and managed liquidity more through outsourced funds. The proportion of trust companies as the main outsourced channel increased due to their valuation advantages [3]. - **Bond - Asset Investment**: After the redemption wave, the bond - allocation scale of wealth management first shrank and then recovered. Currently, it is still mainly credit bonds, but the proportion of low - volatility inter - bank certificates of deposit is increasing. The proportion of outsourced investment has exceeded that of direct investment, showing the characteristics of "direct investment for stable net value and outsourced investment for higher returns" [3]. 4. New Developments: Challenges and Countermeasures for Bank Wealth - Management to Stabilize Net Value - **Challenge 1: Rectification of Wealth - Management Net - Value Smoothing Methods**: Since 2023, the proportion of wealth - management products with a net value below par has been generally controllable thanks to various net - value smoothing methods. However, since 2024, many smoothing methods have been rectified. In 2025, direct investment in bank wealth management increased capital lending and still controlled relatively short durations, while outsourced investment became more conservative [4][8]. - **Challenge 2: Difficulty in Achieving Wealth - Management Performance Benchmarks in a Low - Interest - Rate Bond Market**: In a tight - money environment, wealth management may increase lending and allocate more short - term bonds. In a low - interest - rate environment, it may increase the allocation of equity assets [4][8]. - **Challenge 3: Potential Shrinkage of Small and Medium - Sized Banks' Wealth - Management Scale**: According to news reports, the wealth - management scale of small and medium - sized banks may shrink, with the proposed rectification volume around 3.5 trillion yuan, accounting for about 12%. Wealth - management subsidiaries of large - state - owned banks may undertake the capital gap of small and medium - sized banks' wealth management, and the allocation demand for some inter - bank certificates of deposit and corporate bonds may shift to cash, bank deposits, and financial bonds [4][8]. 5. How Should Bond Investment Respond to the Institutional Behavior Changes of Wealth Management? - **Grasp the Seasonal Bond - Allocation Rules**: In April, July, and from October to November, there are usually opportunities for the credit spreads of 1 - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit and AAA short - and medium - term notes within 1 year to compress [5][8]. - **Track Redemption Waves**: Divide redemption waves into small - scale and large - scale ones according to the degree of negative feedback in the bond market. Use product net value, product scale, and spot - bond trading as the key indicators to track the redemption pressure of various products, and grasp the investment opportunities in redemption waves in different stages [5][9]. - **Pay Attention to Leading Indicators and Be Alert to the Risk of Wealth - Management Net - Value Fluctuation**: Observe whether the wealth - management safety cushion turns negative and whether the seasonal decline in wealth - management scale exceeds the fund - holding position. Before these situations occur, the risk of wealth - management net - value retracement is controllable [5][9].

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 美元还会继续弱吗？ ——基于两个背离下的美元叙事修正 主要观点 3、展望：未来一年或难言美元立即进入持续下行大周期 近期市场各种关于美元的宏大叙事（比如"去美元化"）大行其道，但宏大叙 事难以提供对短期市场走势的有效指引。本文不谈长期宏观叙事，而是希望从 我们观察到的美元指数与其历史规律"锚"的两大背离出发，结合具体数据， 重新审视当下流行的美元叙事。 ❖ （一）思辨之一：如何理解美元指数长期趋势与美国经济占比反向 1、现象：美国经济占比下，但美元指数上 后金融危机时代，美国经济占比与美元指数出现长周期的背离——美国经济 占比持续回落，但美元指数上行。2008 年金融危机之前，美元指数的大型起 伏波折与美国经济占比正相关。但金融危机以来，美国经济占比持续走低，美 元指数却开启震荡上行周期，震荡中枢约为 103-104，对应美元指数历史同水 平时期美国经济占比达 27%-28%。 2、原因：流动性大宽松+欧日并不强 或有两点：一方面，金融危机后流动性大宽松环境下，美债是更具吸引力的相 对高收益资产，吸引大量资金涌入。流动性大宽松背景下，无论汇率套保与否， 美债相比 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 炬芯科技（688049）深度研究报告 强推（首次） 首发 CIM 产品卡位端侧 AI 黄金赛道，新品 放量业绩持续高增 ❖ 风险提示：蓝牙音箱出货不及预期、客户导入不及预期、技术发展不及预期 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 652 | 910 | 1,193 | 1,541 | | 同比增速(%) | 25.3% | 39.6% | 31.1% | 29.1% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 107 | 173 | 235 | 317 | | 同比增速(%) | 63.8% | 62.1% | 36.2% | 34.6% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.73 | 1.18 | 1.61 | 2.17 | | 市盈率(倍) | 79 | 49 | 36 | 27 | | 市净率(倍) | 4.5 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 6 月 25 日收盘价 公司研究 集成电路 2025 年 06 ...

证券研究报 告 【策略专题】 分红能力盘点：周期&公用篇 ——自由现金流资产系列 12 工业金属：25Q1 现金流比例 33%，具备较大股东回报提升空间 石化：25Q1 现金流比例 26%，盈利周期熨平、现金流稳定 港口： 25Q1 现金流比例 33%，市场或已充分认知其稳定现金创造能力 2）行业逻辑演变带来现金流改善：航运受益于近年来地缘事件频繁、运价 大波动的时代背景，农业则正发生开支周期转向平稳阶段的积极变化： 航运：25Q1 现金流比例 41%，地缘事件频繁、运价大波动时代 农业：25Q1 现金流比例 34%，开支周期进入平稳阶段 3）景气周期承压：虽然资本开支力度下降，但 EPS 压力较大，包括煤炭、 钢铁、建材、航空机场、地产： 煤炭：25Q1 现金流比例 25%，煤价下跌与开支高位持续矛盾 钢铁：25Q1 现金流比例 42%，去库影响显著 建材：25Q1 现金流比例 28%，股东回报提升空间有限 航空机场：25Q1 现金流比例 64%，盈利规模与疫情前接近 地产：25Q1 现金流阶段性修复，去库补充现金流 4）仍处高资本开支阶段：资本开支力度均在 2 以上，行业逻辑仍以扩张为 主，包括贵金属、能 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for Hunan Haili, with a target price of 9.9 CNY per share [2][11]. Core Viewpoints - Hunan Haili is a leading company in the carbamate pesticide industry, leveraging its strong R&D capabilities and abundant resources to maintain a dominant market position. The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of the pesticide industry and the expansion of its unique product, Methyl Pyrimidine Phosphorus [7][9][10]. - The report anticipates significant revenue growth for the company, projecting revenues of 2,471 million CNY in 2024, increasing to 4,775 million CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34% from 2024 to 2027 [3][11]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024: 2,471 million CNY - 2025: 3,243 million CNY (31.3% YoY growth) - 2026: 4,016 million CNY (23.8% YoY growth) - 2027: 4,775 million CNY (18.9% YoY growth) [3][11] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2024: 265 million CNY - 2025: 368 million CNY (38.6% YoY growth) - 2026: 502 million CNY (36.5% YoY growth) - 2027: 633 million CNY (26.0% YoY growth) [3][11] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024: 0.47 CNY - 2025: 0.66 CNY - 2026: 0.90 CNY - 2027: 1.13 CNY [3][11] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio: Expected to decrease from 15 in 2025 to 6 in 2027 - Price-to-Book (PB) Ratio: Expected to decrease from 1.3 in 2025 to 1.0 in 2027 [3][11]. Company Overview - Hunan Haili is recognized as the first listed company in Hunan Province, with a strong backing from the Hunan Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [15][24]. - The company has established a robust production capacity of 28,000 tons for carbamate pesticides, with additional capacity being released from its Ningxia base [7][9][10]. Industry Insights - The carbamate pesticide sector is expected to experience a recovery due to the increasing demand for high-toxicity traditional pesticides, which are currently in short supply [7][9][45]. - The global pesticide market has shown a consistent growth trend, with an average annual growth rate of approximately 4.2% from 2017 to 2023, driven by the rising global population [46][49].

证 券 研 究 报 告 计算机行业重大事项点评 MiniMax：推理模型、 （维持） Agent 与多模态 事项： ❑ 6 月 17 日，MiniMax 连续五天推出 AI 新品，涉及新的推理模型、视频生成 模型、Agent、语音设计等产品。在发布周首日开源 MiniMax-M1 模型，次日 上线海螺 AI 视频生成模型，后续发布语音设计工具，覆盖推理、视频生成、 智能体等新工具。 评论： 行业研究 计算机 2025 年 06 月 26 日 推荐 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴鸣远 邮箱：wumingyuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只） | 338 | 0.04 | | 总市值(亿元） | 42,064.50 | 4.18 | | 流通市值(亿元） | 36,270.94 | 4.60 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -2.8% | -7.9% | 35.9% | | 相对表现 | ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, Kefu Medical, with a target price of 45 CNY based on a 25x PE valuation for 2025 [6][10]. Core Views - Kefu Medical is a leading comprehensive home medical device company in China, focusing on personal health management across five major business lines: rehabilitation aids, medical care, health monitoring, respiratory support, and traditional Chinese medicine therapy [6][10]. - The company is expected to benefit from the growth in its rehabilitation aids and health monitoring segments, while the medical care segment is returning to normalized growth after the impact of pandemic-related high baselines [10][11]. Summary by Sections Comprehensive Home Medical Device Company - Kefu Medical, established in 2009, operates as a comprehensive home medical device company with a dual-channel strategy (online and offline) [14]. - The company offers nearly 10,000 product models across various health management categories and maintains a leading position in e-commerce within the medical device sector [14][6]. Five Major Business Lines - **Rehabilitation Aids**: Continuous optimization of existing products and expansion into posture correction and hearing aid markets are expected to drive growth [37]. - **Medical Care**: The segment is gradually returning to normal growth as the impact of pandemic-related high baselines diminishes [10][11]. - **Health Monitoring**: The company has a comprehensive product layout, with a new continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) product expected to become a bestseller [10][11]. - **Respiratory Support**: The business model is shifting from agency to self-branded sales, enhancing profitability [10][11]. - **Traditional Chinese Medicine Therapy**: This segment is recovering from pandemic disruptions and is expected to grow with policy support [10][11]. Competitive Strength and Long-term Development - Kefu Medical is enhancing its competitive edge through a dual-channel strategy, multi-brand layout, and a focus on R&D efficiency [9][10]. - The company is transitioning from OEM/ODM to self-branded products, with over 80% of revenue now coming from its own brands [9][10]. - The integration of AI and smart technologies is being pursued to improve operational efficiency [9][10]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.8 billion CNY, 4.5 billion CNY, and 5.4 billion CNY for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.79 CNY, 2.16 CNY, and 2.60 CNY [10][11]. - The report compares Kefu Medical with peers like Yuyue Medical and Lixin Medical, affirming its positive growth trajectory across its business lines [10][11].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [33]. Core Insights - Tesla's Q1 2025 deliveries were 337,000 units, representing a year-on-year decline of 13% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 32%. The decline is attributed to weak product cycles and a lack of new model stimulation [1][8]. - The forecast for Tesla's 2025 sales is cautiously estimated at 1.604 million units, reflecting a 10% decrease. This is influenced by product cycle issues, declining subsidies for new energy vehicles, and increasing competition in the global market [19][20]. - The Robotaxi pilot program launched in Austin, Texas, is expected to open new business opportunities, with projections indicating that the Robotaxi market could reach $352.6 billion globally by 2035 [15][16]. Sales Performance - In Q1 2025, Model 3/Y deliveries were approximately 324,000 units, down 12% year-on-year and 31% quarter-on-quarter. Other models (Model S/X, Cybertruck) delivered 13,000 units, down 24% year-on-year and 46% quarter-on-quarter [1][8]. - Regional performance showed the U.S. at 123,000 units (-1%), Canada at 200 units (-84%), Europe at 54,000 units (-37%), and China at 135,000 units (+2%) [1][8]. Production Capacity - Tesla's nominal production capacity exceeds 2.35 million units annually, with no significant increases in capacity from Q3 2024 to Q1 2025. The focus will remain on the production of Cybercab and Model Semi [11][20]. Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of mid-term product cycle changes and advancements in AI, which may shift market focus from short-term performance to long-term technological leadership [19]. - The potential for sales adjustments exists if there are positive changes in product strength and marketing strategies [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The influencing factors of the capital market have significant seasonal patterns, and the main line of capital market conditions switches throughout the year, including "Spring Festival disturbance - Fiscal expenditure - Government bond issuance." Identifying these seasonal patterns helps in understanding the bond market trading environment. The central bank's hedging decisions based on these seasonal patterns are crucial for determining the capital market trend. The report combines seasonal and supra - seasonal factors to comprehensively assess the capital market trend and provides bond market trading guidance [1][8][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Capital's Calendar Effect: Main Line Switch of "Spring Festival Disturbance - Fiscal Expenditure - Government Bond Issuance" - **Spring Festival (January - March)**: Affected by factors like cash withdrawal, the capital market is usually tight before the Spring Festival and eases afterwards. Around 10 trading days before the Spring Festival, capital prices tend to rise, and the increase depends on the central bank's liquidity arrangements. The price fluctuation range of DR007:15DMA around the Spring Festival is usually within 20bp, and may narrow to 10bp with reserve requirement ratio cuts. If the total scale of reserve requirement ratio cuts and open - market operations reaches 2 trillion or more, the capital market can remain relatively stable [2][13][16]. - **Second Quarter (April - July)**: With the acceleration of construction progress due to warmer weather and increased fiscal expenditure, the volatility of the capital market decreases, and the capital center tends to decline seasonally. The non - bank stratification in the second quarter is at a seasonal low. In 2024, driven by manual interest compensation, the capital stratification was compressed to below 10bp [2][24]. - **After August**: As the supply of government bonds increases at the end of the year, the pressure on banks' liability gaps may increase again, and capital prices may rise. In August and September, government bond issuance usually speeds up, and even with reserve requirement ratio cuts in 2023 and 2024, the capital center still rose seasonally, with DR007 deviating from the OMO center by about 20bp [2][13][28]. 2. Timing Disturbances: Tax Period, Tool Maturity, and Quarter - End - **Tax Period**: Tax payments may cause a short - term tightening of the inter - bank capital market. The tax payment deadline is usually the 15th of each month, and the tax payment usually occurs about 2 working days after the deadline. The tax payments in January, April, July, and October are relatively large, but they generally do not cause a long - term upward trend in capital prices. The central bank may increase reverse repurchases to hedge the impact [3]. - **Mid - Month**: Attention should be paid to the maturity of monetary policy tools. The maturity of outright reverse repurchases is mainly concentrated in the first half of the month, and the maturity of MLF has been postponed to the 25th since July. The months with large MLF maturities are at the beginning and end of the year, and the monthly maturity of outright reverse repurchases is close to one trillion [3][37]. - **Quarter - End**: Banks may increase their reserve levels to meet regulatory requirements such as the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) and broad credit indicators, which may lead to a reduction in capital lending. However, the fiscal department usually accelerates fund allocation in the last week of the quarter, which can partially relieve the capital pressure [3][42]. 3. Bond Market Trading Insights: Calendar Effect and Central Bank Observation - **Seasonal Opportunities and Risks** - After the Spring Festival, as the capital market recovers, there may be trading opportunities in the bond market. Except in 2025 when the central bank actively guided long - term interest rates upward and in 2022 due to the large - scale maturity of reverse repurchases after the Spring Festival, the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds generally showed a downward trend [4][43]. - After the quarter - end, with the easing of capital and the entry of wealth management funds, the probability of success in the bond market is relatively high. The yield of long - term bonds in April and July tends to decline after the quarter - end [4][47]. - In the third quarter, leveraged trading is generally more cautious. The issuance of government bonds may speed up, the leverage arbitrage space for short - term assets may shrink rapidly in July, and the risk of capital fluctuations caused by redemptions may increase [4][48]. - **Supra - Seasonal Hints and Central Bank Observation** - Since the monetary policy reform in 2024, the central bank's control over the capital market has become more flexible. It is necessary to observe the central bank's attitude from a "top - down" perspective. - **Tightening Window**: Pay attention to whether the policy goals of "stabilizing the exchange rate" and "preventing risks" are prioritized. High exchange - rate pressure may restrict the significant easing of the capital market, and "preventing risks" includes concerns about long - term yields and cracking down on capital arbitrage [5][53]. - **Stabilizing Window**: When there is pressure to stabilize growth, the equity market shows weak expectations, there are credit shocks, or redemption disturbances increase, the central bank usually provides support. For example, during the trade frictions in 2018, the epidemic in 2020, and the trade frictions in 2025, the central bank took measures to maintain a loose monetary environment [5][56].