华福证券 2025 年 08 月 11 日 金 融 工 程 金 融 工 程 定 权益基金全面上涨，数字经济最新主线—— 权益基金月度观察（2025/08） 投资要点： 市场表现 本报告所有分析均基于公开信息，不构成任何投资建议；若市场环境或政 策因素发生不利变化将可能造成行业发展表现不及预期；报告采用的样本 数据有限，存在样本不足以代表整体市场的风险，且数据处理统计方式可 能存在误差；过往业绩不代表未来表现；历史规律总结仅供参考，或不会 完全重演。 团队成员 分析师： 李杨(S0210524100005) ly30676@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 林依源(S0210525010001) lyy30715@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、从行业轮动到热点轮动再到热点龙头股的演绎 ——2025.08.09 2、固收+整体调降转债配置，优选组合持续贡献 超额收益——固收+及纯债基金月度跟踪（2025 年 8 月）——2025.08.08 3、高维宏观周期驱动风格、行业月报(2025/7):优 选红利、价值风格——2025.08.07 权益基金多元策略概况 证 绩优基金月度跟踪 评级跃升基金展现了基金显 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Chinese medical device market will exceed 1,032.8 billion yuan in 2023, maintaining its position as the second largest globally, driven by policy support, aging population, and technological innovation [3][8][13] - The report highlights that the medical device industry is closely linked with upstream and downstream sectors, where technological advancements in upstream industries directly influence the direction of medical device technology [8][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI, domestic high-end equipment, and home medical devices in accelerating the development of the medical device industry, while centralized procurement is reshaping the market landscape [3][8] Group 2 - The report reviews the performance of the pharmaceutical sector, noting that among six sub-industries, only the medical device sector recorded a positive return of +2.70% during the week [2][14] - It mentions that the medical device industry is characterized by rapid growth, with increasing market demand and enhanced innovation capabilities, marking it as a sunrise industry in China [11][13] - The report tracks significant developments in the medical industry, including the establishment of a sports medicine concept verification center aimed at facilitating the transformation of research into clinical applications [21][22] Group 3 - The report discusses the initiation of the 11th batch of national drug centralized procurement, involving 55 varieties, with an estimated sales volume of approximately 44 billion yuan for public hospitals in 2024 [25] - It highlights China's significant progress in HIV vaccine research, with the completion of the first phase of clinical trials for a vaccine using a replication-competent smallpox virus vector, marking a crucial advancement in the field [27][30]

行 华福证券 基础化工 2025 年 08 月 11 日 业 研 究 行 基础化工 新材料周报：2025 年全球十大半导体厂商资本支 出同比增长 7%，英伟达正式获得 H20 对华出口 许可 投资要点： 业 定 期 报 告 本周行情回顾。本周（2025.08.04-2025.08.08），Wind 新材料指数收报 4182.68 点，环比上涨 2.57%。其中，涨幅前五的有皇马科技(16.52%)、仙鹤股 份(12.23%)、国恩股份(10.69%)、普利特(9.94%)、金发科技(9.85%)；跌幅前五 的有阳谷华泰(-5.08%)、联瑞新材(-4.2%)、福斯特(-3.71%)、金博股份(-3.34%)、 确成股份(-2.85%)。六个子行业中，申万三级行业半导体材料指数收报 6489.25 点，环比上涨 2.91%；申万三级行业显示器件材料指数收报 1096.63 点，环比 上涨 0.7%；中信三级行业有机硅材料指数收报 6667.77 点，环比上涨 0.9%； 中信三级行业碳纤维指数收报 1288.95 点，环比下跌 0.01%；中信三级行业锂 电指数收报 1927.17 点，环比上涨 2.01%；W ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that market expectations for interest rate cuts have intensified, with the probability of a rate cut in September reaching 88.9% and a total of three cuts anticipated within the year [1][8][10] - Recent economic data has shown signs of weakening, with the ISM non-manufacturing PMI for July at 50.1, below previous values and forecasts, and initial jobless claims rising to 226,000, exceeding expectations [2][9][10] - The report highlights that the Nasdaq Composite Index reached a historical high, reflecting a positive trend in major equity markets, particularly in the materials sector, which saw significant gains [1][38][45] Group 2 - In the asset price section, major global asset classes exhibited mixed performance, with COMEX silver showing the highest increase at +4.43%, while NYMEX light crude oil experienced the largest decline at -5.11% [33][52] - The report notes that the U.S. equity market, particularly the materials sector, has shown strong performance, with the materials industry in the U.S. rising by 5.01% [38][45] - The foreign exchange market saw the Japanese yen appreciating by 1.54% against the RMB, while the ruble depreciated by 1.79% [46][48] Group 3 - The report provides updates on significant economic data, including the Eurozone consumer confidence index continuing to rise, and the UK manufacturing PMI showing an increase [63][71] - Japan's unemployment rate remained unchanged, indicating stability in the labor market [74][76] - The report tracks important data releases for the upcoming week, including U.S. CPI data and other key economic indicators [78]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [5][19]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a continuous influx of overseas energy storage orders, showcasing its strong competitive position in the global energy storage market [2]. - The recent U.S. Inflation Reduction Act provides extended policy support for the energy storage sector, which the company is well-positioned to leverage [3]. - The company is actively pursuing opportunities in the Artificial Intelligence Data Center (AIDC) sector, which is anticipated to become a second growth curve for the business [4]. Summary by Sections Overseas Orders and Market Position - The company has secured significant overseas energy storage orders, including a recent agreement to deploy a 1GWh battery storage system in Bulgaria and a 2.4GWh order in Europe [2]. - The company has consistently won overseas storage contracts since 2025, including a 500MWh order in Japan and a 50MW/100MWh project in Finland [2]. U.S. Policy and Market Dynamics - The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act extends the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for energy storage until 2036, providing a longer support window for the industry [3]. - Current tariffs on Chinese products are set at 10%, with potential adjustments expected, which may impact the company's operations in the U.S. market [3][4]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 14.1 billion, 14.7 billion, and 15.8 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.0, 11.5, and 10.7 [5][7]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 89.6 billion yuan in 2025 to 109.8 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [7]. AIDC Business Development - The company is establishing a subsidiary to focus on AIDC power supply business, leveraging its expertise in power electronics to tap into this emerging market [4].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [68]. Core Viewpoints - The report expresses optimism regarding the military industry performance post the upcoming military parade on September 3, which is expected to boost sector enthusiasm. The report highlights significant catalysts such as Palantir's $10 billion contract with the U.S. Army for military digitalization and recent developments in commercial aerospace [42][43]. - The military industry is anticipated to experience strong demand recovery by 2025, supported by various national goals and rapid military trade development, making it a key focus for future investments [43]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Overview - The military index (801740) rose by 5.93% from August 4 to August 8, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 1.23%, resulting in a relative excess return of 4.69 percentage points [9][14]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the military index has increased by 21.56%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has only risen by 4.32%, leading to a relative excess return of 17.23 percentage points [16]. 2. Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on three main lines of investment: domestic trade, foreign trade, and emerging industries. Specific companies to watch include: 1. Domestic Trade: - Land Equipment: Tianqin Equipment, Gaode Infrared, Ligong Navigation, Bai'ao Intelligent, Changcheng Military Industry - Aircraft: Jiach Technology, AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, AVIC Xi'an Aircraft - Engines: Hangyu Technology, Hangya Technology, Hangfa Technology - Deep Sea: Western Materials - Unmanned/Counter-Unmanned: Zongheng Co., Aerospace Rainbow, Ruike Laser, New Jingang [43]. 2. Foreign Trade: Guangdong Hongda, Guorui Technology, Aerospace Nanhu [44]. 3. Emerging Industries: - Nuclear Fusion: Guoguang Electric, Lianchuang Optoelectronics, Hezhuan Intelligent, Yongding Co., Wangzi New Materials, Aike Saibo, Xuguang Electronics, Hongwei Technology - Commercial Aerospace: Aerospace Power [45]. 3. Financial and Valuation Insights - As of August 8, the military index's TTM price-to-earnings ratio is 75.58, placing it in the 100th percentile, indicating a high valuation level. This is an increase from the previous week's ratio of 72.21 [26][33]. - Despite a net outflow of passive funds due to the index's rise, leveraged funds have seen significant net inflows for four consecutive weeks, reflecting a positive trend in funding for the military sector [26][32].

Group 1 - The logic of capital market pricing will change with economic development, shifting from a focus on dividend pricing to supply pricing due to the anti-involution development model [3][15] - After the price recovery in China, there is a positive impact on employment, although it may suppress output; the key focus is whether export prices can continue to improve [3][15] - Supply-driven price recovery is more favorable for asset price increases, with short-term price fluctuations having a minor impact on the capital market [3][15] Group 2 - The report is optimistic about non-bank sectors, low PB industries, military industry, and self-controlled technology companies [3][15] - There is a positive outlook on innovative chips, technology leaders under institutional heavy positions, the茅指数, AI applications, and tin metal [3][15] Group 3 - The anti-involution policy has shown initial effectiveness, with July PPI decreasing by 3.6% year-on-year, maintaining the same decline as the previous month [8] - In July, China's export value increased by 7.2% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.3 percentage points compared to June, marking two consecutive months of acceleration [11][15] - The strong performance of exports to the EU, India, and South Korea is noted, while exports to the US and ASEAN showed a significant decline [13][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the luxury goods sector [6]. Core Insights - The luxury goods sector in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan) shows a sequential improvement, with Hermes demonstrating relative resilience [3][12]. - In Q2 2025, LVMH, Hermes, and Kering reported revenue changes in Asia (excluding Japan) of -6%, +5%, and -19% year-on-year, respectively [3][12]. - Hermes continues to grow across all regions, while LVMH and Kering face challenges, particularly in the Asia-Pacific market [3][12][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Luxury Goods Sector Performance - The luxury goods sector in Asia (excluding Japan) has improved sequentially, with Hermes showing a 5.6% year-on-year revenue increase in Q2 2025 [3][21]. - LVMH's revenue decreased by 4% to €19.5 billion, with a 22% drop in net profit to €5.7 billion, affected by macroeconomic uncertainties and currency fluctuations [14][15]. - Kering's revenue fell by 18% to €3.7 billion, with Gucci and YSL brands experiencing significant declines [28]. 2. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from policy support and consumer recovery, including major home appliances and pet products [30][31]. - Key companies to watch include Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, and Gree Electric for home appliances, and brands like Anta Sports and Li Ning in the apparel sector [30][31]. 3. Market Trends - The home appliance sector saw a weekly increase of 2.3%, while the textile and apparel sector rose by 4.23% [34][36]. - Cotton prices are reported at ¥15,178 per ton, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.54% [36].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [6][12] Core Insights - The release of GPT-5 has catalyzed growth in the AI sector, with significant advancements in programming and overall performance compared to competitors [2] - Major tech companies are increasing their investments in AI, with Alphabet's Q2 revenue growing by 13.8% and net profit by 19.4%, Microsoft's Q4 revenue up by 18%, and Meta's Q2 revenue increasing by 22% [3] - The demand for AI-driven servers, data storage, and high-speed network infrastructure is creating new growth opportunities in the PCB market, particularly for high-density interconnect (HDI) products [3][4] Summary by Sections Investment Opportunities - Focus on PCB equipment companies such as Dazhu CNC, Ding Tai High-Tech, and others [4] - Attention to PCBA equipment firms like Kaige Precision Machinery and others [4] - Advanced packaging companies such as Chipbond Technology and others are highlighted [4] Market Trends - The AI sector's growth is expected to drive demand for more complex and higher-performance PCB products, supporting intricate computing and data processing needs [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [7] Core Views - Precious Metals: China has increased its gold reserves for the ninth consecutive month, with a total of 73.96 million ounces as of the end of July, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 60,000 ounces. The market is influenced by expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year [3][12] - Industrial Metals: The seasonal peak is approaching, and attention should be paid to the pace of inventory reduction. Copper prices are supported by a tight supply-demand balance, while aluminum prices may experience fluctuations due to seasonal factors [4][14] - New Energy Metals: The mining operation at Jiangxiawo has been confirmed to be suspended with no plans for resumption in the short term. The lithium market is expected to remain strong due to resilient demand despite supply disruptions [19] - Other Minor Metals: The prices of rare earths are showing slight weakness, but there is limited downside potential in the short term due to existing supply gaps [20] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Strategy - Precious Metals: Continuous increase in gold reserves by China and rising expectations for a Fed rate cut [11] - Industrial Metals: Seasonal peak approaching, focus on inventory reduction [14] - New Energy Metals: Suspension of mining operations at Jiangxiawo [19] - Other Minor Metals: Rare earth prices showing slight weakness [20] 2. Weekly Review - The non-ferrous index rose by 5.8%, with gold showing the largest increase among sub-sectors [24][28] - Notable stock performances include Kexin New Energy (+53.05%) and West Materials (-12.66%) [26] 3. Major Events - Macro: Trump criticizes Powell for delayed rate cuts; China's July PPI decreased by 3.6% [39] - Industry: China continues to increase gold reserves; Jiangxiawo mining operation confirmed to be suspended [44] 4. Non-Ferrous Metal Prices and Inventory - Industrial Metals: Copper and aluminum prices remain stable with copper inventory increasing [47] - Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices are rising due to a weakening dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [66]