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中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明点评:关税缓和出口汇率趋升,提振内需迎来关键机遇
Huafu Securities· 2025-05-12 13:37
宏 观 研 究 华福证券 2025 年 05 月 12 日 关税缓和出口汇率趋升,提振内需迎来关键机遇 ——《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》点评 投资要点: 宏 观 点 评 中美日内瓦经贸会谈获得明显积极进展,美对华加征关税阶段性大幅下 降,且双方同意建立持续磋商机制。据今日刚刚公布的中美日内瓦经贸会谈联 合声明,中美两国政府就缓和当前的经贸紧张关系达成初步的一致观点,其中 美方承诺取消根据 2025 年 4 月 8 日第 14259 号行政令和 2025 年 4 月 9 日第 14266 号行政令对中国商品加征的共计 91%的关税,并将 4 月 2 日行政令中对 华加征 34%的所谓"对等关税"修改为"其中,24%的关税在初始的 90 天内 暂停实施,同时保留按该行政令的规定对这些商品加征剩余 10%的关税"。我 国也承诺对应降低关税反制措施强度。在大幅降低关税的基础上,双方将建立 机制,继续就经贸关系进行协商。这一明确的联合声明意味着本轮美国发起的 关税战迎来趋于缓和的明确拐点。 相关报告 1、提振消费,加大投放,疏通利率,稳定汇率— —货币政策执行报告(25Q1)解读——2025.05.10 2、核心 C ...
中美贸易冲突暂缓,布局优质低估出口
Huafu Securities· 2025-05-12 13:36
轻工制造 2025 年 05 月 12 日 行 业 研 究 轻工制造 中美贸易冲突暂缓,布局优质低估出口 投资要点: 风险提示:全球贸易政策风险、原材料价格大幅上涨风险。 强于大市(维持评级) 一年内行业相对大盘走势 团队成员 分析师: 李宏鹏(S0210524050017) lhp30568@hfzq.com.cn 分析师: 李含稚(S0210524060005) lhz30597@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、轻工纺服行业周报:4 月出口仍显韧性,Q1 全球 AI 眼镜倍增——2025.05.11 2、轻工纺服行业周报:一季报家居营收环比改善, 个护景气延续——2025.05.05 3、轻工纺服行业周报:菲莫 Q1 无烟产品贡献显 著,个护龙头势能向上——2025.04.27 诚信专业 发现价值 2 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 诚信专业 发现价值 1 请务必阅读报告末页的声明 华福证券 行 业 动 态 跟 踪 中美贸易谈判达成阶段性进展,美国对我国增量关税降至 30%。5 月 12 日中美发表贸易会谈声明,本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质 性进展,大幅降低双边关税水平,双方承诺将于 2025 年 5 ...
兼评一季度货币政策执行报告:短端利率的空间有多大
Huafu Securities· 2025-05-12 13:33
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From May 6 - 9, short - term varieties performed well, with the 1Y CD rate breaking through the resistance level around 1.75% and dropping nearly 10BP. From May 12 - 16, the net payment of government bonds increased significantly to 6453 billion yuan, putting pressure on the capital market. However, the RRR cut on May 15 will provide 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity support, and it is expected that the capital interest rate will remain around 1.5%. The result of the Sino - US trade negotiation exceeded expectations, the bond market quickly adjusted, and the short - term still has value. If the capital interest rate stays around the policy rate, when the 1Y CD rate drops to around 1.6%, profit - taking is needed [3][9]. - The "2025 Q1 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report" has three key points: First, it affirms the phased results of interest rate formation and transmission and will further improve the interest rate regulation framework; second, it shifts from focusing on activating the stock and preventing idling to increasing credit investment and highlighting quantitative tools; third, it mentions the US tariff policy multiple times and sets up a special column to discuss government debt and inflation [3][9][13]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Current Situation and Future Concerns - On May 7, a package of financial policies were introduced. From May 6 - 9, the net payment of government bonds was negative, but the capital price declined slowly before the interest rate cut on May 8, which may be related to the central bank's net reverse - repurchase withdrawal of over 1 trillion yuan from May 6 - 7. After the interest rate cut on May 8, the capital price dropped significantly. As of May 9, DR001 was 1.49%, R001 was 1.52%, DR007 was 1.54%, and R007 was 1.58%. The spread between DR007 and 7DOMO was 14BP, and the spread between R007 and DR007 remained within 5bp [8]. - The result of the Sino - US trade negotiation exceeded expectations, the bond market quickly adjusted, the long - end adjustment was larger, and the yield curve steepened. In the short term, the possibility of further easing decreased, and the short - term still has value [9]. 2. Money Market Interest Rate Tracking - From May 6 - 9, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 781.7 billion yuan, all from pledged reverse - repurchase. From May 12 - 16, the pledged reverse - repurchase due was 836.1 billion yuan and the MLF due was 125 billion yuan. The bill interest rate changed little from May 6 - 9, with the 3M national - share discount rate rising from 1.07% to 1.09% and the six - month national - share transfer discount rate remaining around 1.07% [32][34]. 3. Open - Market Operation Tracking - As of May 9, the central bank's total open - market operation balance was 9664.1 billion yuan, including a pledged reverse - repurchase balance of 836.1 billion yuan, a repurchase - style reverse - repurchase balance of 460 billion yuan, and an MLF balance of 465.7 billion yuan. From May 6 - 9, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 781.7 billion yuan, all from pledged reverse - repurchase. From May 12 - 16, the pledged reverse - repurchase due was 836.1 billion yuan and the MLF due was 125 billion yuan [39]. 4. Government Bond Tracking 4.1 Government Bond Issuance - From May 5 - 9, treasury bonds were issued for 37.1 billion yuan with a net financing of 19.558 billion yuan; local bonds were issued for 10.5459 billion yuan with a net financing of 6.7224 billion yuan. From May 12 - 16, treasury bonds were issued for 55 billion yuan with a net financing of 46.067 billion yuan; local bonds were issued for 19.725 billion yuan with a net financing of 17.1114 billion yuan [45][47]. 4.2 Government Bond Payment - From May 6 - 9, the net payment of government bonds was - 12.29 billion yuan, with the net payment of treasury bonds at - 75.42 billion yuan and that of local bonds at 63.13 billion yuan. It is expected that from May 12 - 16, the net payment of government bonds will be 645.32 billion yuan, with the net payment of treasury bonds at 481.67 billion yuan and that of local bonds at 163.65 billion yuan [52]. 5. Inter - Bank Certificate of Deposit (CD) Tracking 5.1 Primary Market of Inter - Bank CDs - From May 6 - 9, inter - bank CDs were issued for 857.7 billion yuan, with a net financing of 368.5 billion yuan. From May 12 - 16, the maturity of inter - bank CDs was 593.9 billion yuan. In terms of bank types, joint - stock banks had the highest issuance scale; in terms of maturity types, 1Y had the highest issuance scale. The overall issuance success rate was 97%. The issuance success rate of state - owned banks was the highest at 100%, and that of 1Y was 98%. The issuance interest rates of all types of banks and all maturities decreased significantly [57][58]. 5.2 Secondary Market of Inter - Bank CDs - From May 6 - 9, after the central bank announced the RRR cut and interest rate cut, the secondary - market yields of CDs of all maturities decreased significantly, with the 3M CD yield dropping by 13bp and the yields of other maturities dropping by about 8bp [80]. 6. Excess Reserve Ratio Tracking - The estimated excess reserve ratio at the end of March 2025 was 1.00%. From May 6 - 9, the central bank's open - market net withdrawal was 781.7 billion yuan, and the net payment of government bonds was - 12.29 billion yuan, reducing the excess reserve scale by 769.41 billion yuan in total [86].
财税视角看县域经济
Huafu Securities· 2025-05-12 12:57
Table_First|Table_Summary 华福证券 固定收益专题 2025 年 5 月 12 日 【华福固收】财税视角看县域经济 投资要点: 24 年县域社会消费增速高于全国,比重也有近三成,对全国的消 费拉动作用明显。县域消费更加具备活力,与城镇化、区域财力适当 下沉、区域内体制内职工就业与工资的相对稳定、网络普及消费观念 改变(个性化、悦己型)、供给端日益丰富和完善(包含电商下沉、 "最后一公里"的完善、《县域商业三年行动计划(2023—2025 年)》 政策)、大城市年轻人口回流、生育政策的改善、县域旅游热度提升等 密切相关。 政策端,如 23 年印发的《县域商业三年行动计划(2023—2025 年)》明确,到 2025 年,在全国打造 500 个左右的县域商业"领跑 县",建设改造一批县级物流配送中心、乡镇商贸中心(大中型超市、 集贸市场)和农村新型便民商店。 观察近年各县及县级市税收及增速,近四年复合增速较高的县域 包括巴里坤哈萨克自治县、房县、枝江市、沙雅县、蒲县、西乌珠穆 沁旗、宜都市、达拉特旗、习水县、汾阳市、舞阳县、山阴县、应城 市、景宁畲族自治县、临颍县、中阳县等,税收增速高的县 ...
医疗与消费周报:外泌体行业:产业化初期阶段,想象空间大-20250512
Huafu Securities· 2025-05-12 09:55
Group 1 - The report highlights that the exosome industry is in its early stages of industrialization, with significant growth potential anticipated in the coming years [3][8][9] - Exosomes, which are nano-sized vesicles involved in intercellular communication, play crucial roles in tumor progression, immune regulation, and metastasis, with applications in early cancer detection and treatment guidance [3][8] - The global exosome market is projected to grow from USD 112.25 million in 2022 to approximately USD 1.5 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32.75%, with around 30% of applications in oncology and 50% of revenue generated by biopharmaceutical companies [3][8] Group 2 - The report notes that there are currently at least 46 companies in China engaged in exosome research and development, focusing on areas such as separation, purification, detection, new drug development, delivery, and diagnostics [3][8] - The industrialization of exosomes is still in its nascent phase, with only a few products available in the disease diagnosis sector, while drug delivery applications remain in early development without any products on the market [9] - The report emphasizes that the lack of a clear competitive landscape presents substantial opportunities for new entrants in the exosome industry [9]
大事记下的市场运行
Huafu Securities· 2025-05-12 09:39
策 略 研 究 华福证券 策略定期研究 2025 年 5 月 12 日 大事记下的市场运行 投资要点: 本周(5/5-5/9)市场偏强震荡,全 A 收涨 2.32%。从指数情况看,微 盘股、创业板指领涨,仅科创 50 收跌。从风格情况看,先进制造、金融地 产领涨,科技、医药医疗涨幅居后。本周 31 个申万行业全部收涨,国防军 工、通信、电力设备领涨,商贸零售、电子、房地产涨幅较窄。 策 略 定 期 报 告 市场观察:股债收益差下降,行业轮动强度上升。(1)市场估值:股 债收益差下降至 1.4%,位于+1 标准差、+2 标准差之间。估值分化系数有 所上升。(2)市场情绪:市场情绪回暖,行业轮动强度上升。市场小盘风 格占优,微盘股指数跑赢市场,主题热度主要聚集在商业航天、军工信息 化、通用航空。(3)市场结构:市场量能环比上升,国防军工、家用电器、 计算机多头个股占比居前,石油石化、商贸零售、农林牧渔内部或存在α 机会。(4)市场资金:本周陆股通周内日平均成交金额较上周上升 187 亿 元,本周陆股通周内日平均成交笔数较上周上升 58 万笔。陆股通成交额排 名前三的标的为比亚迪、宁德时代、新易盛,近 5 日涨幅分 ...
公积金贷款利率下调,后续增量政策值得期待
Huafu Securities· 2025-05-12 07:05
行 业 华福证券 建筑材料 2025 年 05 月 12 日 研 究 建筑材料 公积金贷款利率下调,后续增量政策值得期待 投资要点: 本周观点 行 业 定 期 报 告 5 月 7 日,中国人民银行行长潘功胜在国新办新闻发布会上宣布,降 准 0.5 个百分点,向市场提供长期流动性约 1 万亿,并降低政策利率 0.1 个 百分点;下调个人住房公积金贷款利率 0.25 个百分点,5 年期以上首套房 利率由 2.85%降至 2.6%,其他期限的利率同步调整。金融监管总局局长李 云泽表示,1)加快出台房地产开发、个人住房、城市更新等贷款管理办法; 2)房地产"白名单"贷款审批通过金额增至 6.7 万亿;3)一季度新增个 人住房贷款创 2022 年以来单季最大增幅;4)近期将推出八项增量政策, 加快出台与房地产发展新模式相适配的系列融资制度;北京发布《2025 年 北京市住房发展年度计划》,提出加大购买绿色建筑和多子女家庭购房贷 款支持力度;广东 2025 年计划改造老旧小区超 600 个,更新住宅电梯 2.65 万台,研究盘活农户合法住房;上海杨浦区发布人才新政,优秀"博主" 购房最高可获 200 万补贴;珠海鼓励住房 ...
公募基金改革方案出台,银行股配置需求有望系统性提升
Huafu Securities· 2025-05-11 14:30
行 业 银行 2025 年 05 月 11 日 研 究 行 业 动 态 跟 踪 银行 公募基金改革方案出台,银行股配置需求有望系 统性提升 投资要点: 证监会印发《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》 中国证监会于近日公开印发《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》(下 文简称"行动方案"),推动公募基金改革。行动方案共提出 25 条举 措,督促基金公司、基金销售机构等行业机构从"重规模"向"重回 报"转变。 行动方案强化业绩比较基准要求 行动方案强化基金产品业绩比较基准的业绩对比作用、考核作为、约 束力,具体要求包括: 1)对主动管理权益类基金,推行与基金业绩表现挂钩的浮动管理费率 收取模式。业绩明显低于比较基准的,须少收管理费。 2)将业绩比较基准对比等指标引入考核体系,建立健全与基金投资收 益相挂钩的薪酬管理机制。对三年以上产品业绩低于业绩比较基准超 过 10 个百分点的基金经理,要求其绩效薪酬应当明显下降;对三年以 上产品业绩显著超过业绩比较基准的基金经理,可以合理适度提高其 绩效薪酬。 3)强化基金产品业绩比较基准的约束力,充分发挥其体现产品定位、 衡量产品业绩的作用。 以上方案的提出强化了业绩比较基准的核心 ...
长端信用品种如何投资?
Huafu Securities· 2025-05-11 13:44
Table_First|Table_Summary 华福证券 固定收益专题 2025 年 5 月 11 日 【华福固收】长端信用品种如何投资? ➢ 收益率变动幅度:熊市长端信用债抗跌性较好 期限越长的信用债涨跌幅度通常小于期限较短的信用债,即在牛市阶段中短端 品种表现更好,但熊市阶段长端品种抗跌性更强。这个主要是受到品种流动性 和投资者结构的影响,短端品种交易灵活度较高、配置稳定性强,是大部分机 构投资者的持仓首选,而长端品种的持仓机构多为负债端稳定的投资者,买卖 力量相对较弱,整体较为稳定。 从信用债各个品种来看,和长端二永债相比,长端普信债的抗跌性更强。 ➢ 区间收益回报:牛市长端信用债综合收益更高 长端信用债在牛市中综合收益率表现突出,而在熊市中收益表现略输于短端 品种,震荡市中5-7Y的收益表现更好。在利率下行阶段,长久期品种的票息 收益和骑乘收益优势明显,持有体验比短端品种更佳,尤其是7-10Y的信用债 整体、中短票和二永债,区间涨幅大多在两位数以上。在利率震荡期间,无 论是普信债还是二级资本债,5-7Y的收益回报相对更好。 从信用债各个品种来看,5-7Y二级资本债在牛市中跑输普信债的概率更大,而 ...
国防军工本周观点:中国军工的价值重估时刻已到-20250511
Huafu Securities· 2025-05-11 13:27
行 业 华福证券 国防军工 2025 年 05 月 11 日 研 究 国防军工 军工本周观点:中国军工的价值重估时刻已到 投资要点: 本周核心观点: 行 业 定 期 报 告 5 月 7 日,巴基斯坦表示,印度当天凌晨向巴基斯坦本土及巴控克什米尔 地区的三处地点发射了导弹,印巴冲突升级,直至 5 月 10 日,印巴双方同 意立即停火;而巴基斯坦为我国主要武器装备出口国,根据海国图智研究 院援引的斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所(SIPRI)统计,2023 年中国军贸出 口占全球市场份额的 5.80%,其中约 60%的出口对象为巴基斯坦,且交战 期间相关实况报道进一步验证了中国军事装备近年快速发展的强实力,因 此本周军贸主题及其相关标的跑出明显超额,带动国防军工板块表现优异, 本周(5.6-5.9)申万军工指数(801740)上涨 6.33% ,同期沪深 300 指数 上涨 2.00%,相对超额 4.32pct。 5 月 11 日,人民日报刊文《加快解放和发展新质战斗力》,文中写到:"向 新而生,向质图强。当前,新一轮科技革命和产业变革蓬勃发展,大量高 新技术武器用于实战,智能技术、无人装备、大数据应用等成为战斗力新 的 ...