Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the securities industry [7]. Core Insights - The securities industry is currently in a strategic opportunity period for balance sheet expansion, transitioning from a cyclical expansion to a resilient expansion phase, with large brokerages leading the way [16][19]. - The expansion of balance sheets is driven by fixed income investments, with a notable increase in contributions from subsidiaries, indicating a shift in operational strategy [17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of balance sheet management as a core profit source and a reflection of industry trends, highlighting the need for comprehensive asset allocation and international collaboration [19][20]. Summary by Sections Current Stage of Balance Sheet Expansion - The industry is moving from cyclical to resilient expansion, with total assets expected to reach 12.93 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, reflecting a 12% CAGR over the past decade [16][21]. Importance of Balance Sheet Management - Balance sheet management is crucial for securities firms, as it directly impacts their operational efficiency and profitability, with a focus on optimizing asset allocation under resource constraints [20][22]. Nature of Balance Sheet Expansion - The expansion is primarily driven by the growth of the capital markets, with a strong correlation between the total assets of the securities industry and the performance of the equity and bond markets [24]. Future Outlook for Expansion - The report anticipates that the balance sheet will continue to expand alongside the growth of equity and bond markets, with significant potential in the derivatives market, which is currently underdeveloped compared to international standards [27][28]. Paths for Balance Sheet Expansion - The report outlines three main paths for expansion: external mergers and acquisitions, internal growth through regulatory innovation, and international expansion [32][39]. Characteristics of the Current Expansion Cycle - The current cycle is characterized by a focus on fixed income investments, stable leverage levels, and increased contributions from subsidiaries, particularly in international markets [17][18]. Comparison with International Peers - Chinese securities firms are still catching up with their international counterparts, with significant room for growth in both scale and core capabilities [18][19]. Recommendations for Investment - The report suggests focusing on leading firms with strong balance sheet management capabilities, such as CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, and China Galaxy, as they are expected to enhance capital returns during the expansion phase [19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Marvell Technology (MRVL US) is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of $85.20 [7][8]. Core Insights - Marvell has significantly raised its forecast for the global accelerated computing chip market to $349 billion by 2028, an increase of 103%, driven by major cloud computing companies and emerging AI compute builders increasing their data center CAPEX [2]. - The company also revised its forecast for the AI custom chip market to $55.4 billion by 2028, reflecting a 29% increase, with custom chips expected to account for 25% of the AI computing chip market [2]. - Marvell aims to maintain a 20% market share in the data center potential market, which is projected to grow to $94 billion by 2028, up 26% from previous estimates [3]. Summary by Sections Market Potential - The global accelerated computing chip market is expected to reach $349 billion by 2028, with XPU and XPU supporting chips projected to be $221 billion [2]. - The AI custom chip market is anticipated to grow to $55.4 billion by 2028, with a notable increase in the market for custom XPU supporting chips, expected to rise from $6 million in 2023 to $146 million by 2028 [2]. Competitive Advantage - Marvell has established a differentiated advantage in core IP technologies such as Serdes, custom SRAM, and custom HBM, enhancing its competitive position in custom chips and data center interconnect chips [3]. - The company has secured 18 AI custom chip projects, including five XPU projects, indicating strong engagement with major clients for next-generation projects [3]. Financial Projections - Adjusted net profit forecasts for Marvell are $2.53 billion for FY2026, $3.23 billion for FY2027, and $4.02 billion for FY2028, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [4]. - The target price of $85.20 suggests a potential upside from the current closing price of $74.95, indicating a favorable investment opportunity [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry [7] Core Insights - The express delivery industry continues to adopt a "price for volume" strategy, with a decrease in average prices and a slowdown in volume growth since the beginning of the year [3][4] - In May, the retail sales of goods and e-commerce GMV showed positive growth, but the growth rate of express delivery volume has started to decelerate, indicating a weakening effect from promotional events [1][2] - The report recommends investing in SF Express, which maintains a positive cycle of volume and profit, and Jitu Express, which has high growth in international business [5] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In May, retail sales increased by 6.4% year-on-year, with e-commerce GMV growing by 8.2%, indicating a strong online sales environment [2] - The express delivery volume in May grew by 17.2% year-on-year, but this was a slowdown from 19.1% in April [1][3] Company Analysis - SF Express achieved a volume growth of 31.8% in May, significantly outperforming the industry average of 17.2% [4] - Jitu Express reported a 15.9% increase in revenue for 2024, driven by strong performance in both domestic and Southeast Asian markets [24] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that despite the express delivery sector being at a historical low valuation, the long-term outlook remains positive for leading companies due to their market share aspirations and operational efficiencies [5] - Target prices are set at 51.10 CNY for SF Express and 7.50 HKD for Jitu Express, both rated as "Buy" [10][23]

Group 1: Fixed Income and Economic Outlook - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change, aligning with market expectations [2] - The statement indicated a slight reduction in uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, although it remains at a high level [2] Group 2: Energy Transition and High-Temperature Superconductors - Shanghai Superconductor, a leading company in high-temperature superconducting materials, reported projected revenues of CNY 0.83 billion and CNY 2.40 billion for 2023 and 2024, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 133% and 187% [2] - The company's gross profit margins are expected to improve to 55.77% and 60.52% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, with a significant increase in net profit to CNY 0.73 billion in 2024, indicating a turnaround [2] - The report anticipates that the demand for controllable nuclear fusion will drive down costs and expand application scenarios for high-temperature superconductors [2] Group 3: E-commerce and Retail Growth - The 2025 "618" e-commerce promotion is expected to see stable double-digit growth, driven by a slightly extended activity cycle, government subsidies, and increased user engagement through instant retail scenarios [4] - Major e-commerce platforms are expected to continue competing on improving merchant operations and enhancing user stickiness through multi-channel marketing [4] - Recommended stocks include Alibaba (BABA US/9988 HK) and JD.com (JD US/9618 HK) due to their strong brand support and potential for cross-selling in instant retail [4] Group 4: Utilities and Environmental Sector Performance - The report anticipates a mixed performance among major thermal power companies in Q2 2025, with coal prices expected to decline month-on-month [5] - Hydropower generation is projected to decline year-on-year, while nuclear power operations remain stable [5] - Key focus areas for green power operators include electricity pricing mechanisms and cash flow management for environmental companies [5] Group 5: New Energy and Technology Trends - The report highlights optimism in the profitability of battery and structural components in the electric vehicle sector, alongside advancements in solid-state battery technology [8] - Wind power demand is expected to remain robust, with profitability recovery driven by offshore wind projects [8] - Recommended stocks include CATL, EVE Energy, and others involved in emerging technology sectors such as humanoid robots and AIDC [8] Group 6: U.S. Treasury Market Demand - The report analyzes the structural characteristics of U.S. Treasury investors, noting that international investors, broad-based mutual funds, and the Federal Reserve account for over 60% of the market [7] - Different investor types exhibit distinct motivations for purchasing Treasuries, with expectations for continued demand from commercial banks and pension funds in the second half of 2025 [7]

2025年6月19日|中国内地 | 何康, PhD | 李雨婕 | 王伟光 | 孙瀚文 | 方正档 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研究员 | 研究员 | 研究员 | 研究员 | 研究员 | | SAC No. S0570520080004 | SAC No. S0570525050001 | SAC No. S0570523040001 | SAC No. S0570524040002 | SAC No. S0570524060001 | | SFC No. BRB318 | liyujie@htsc.com | wangweiguang@htsc.com | SFC No. BVB302 | fangzhengtao@htsc.com | | hekang@htsc.com | +(852) 3658 6000 | +(86) 21 2897 2228 | sunhanwen@htsc.com | +(86) 21 2897 2228 | | +(86) 21 2897 2202 | | | +(86) 21 2897 2228 | | 核心观点 证券研究报告 策略 ...

证券研究报告 公用环保 2Q25 业绩前瞻：火电利润高弹性，环 保关注现金流 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 19 日│中国内地 动态点评 2Q25 业绩前瞻：火电利润高弹性，环保关注现金流 5 月全国火电发电量由降转增，2Q25 煤价同环比下降（考虑 1 个月库存）， 考虑煤炭结构差异，我们认为主要火电公司 2Q25 业绩或出现分化；4/5 月 全国水电发电量同比下滑，不同流域存在分化；核电机组稳健运行；1-4 月 装机增长支撑绿电运营商电量同比提升；4 月全国天然气表观消费量同比下 滑。展望 3Q25，火电关注电价 vs 煤价剪刀差；水电盈利主要取决于来水情 况；绿电关注机制电价细则和国补确权进展；燃气关注天然气需求是否改善； 环保公司主要关注现金流、水价调整、绿色和智慧潜能释放空间。 火电：5 月发电量由降转增，2Q25 煤价同环比下降，业绩或出现分化 4 月全国火电发电量同比下滑，5 月由降转增，2Q25 煤价同环比下降。据 国家统计局，2025 年 4/5 月全国火电发电量同比-2.3/+1.2%。考虑 1 个月 库存，2Q25 秦皇岛动力末煤平仓均价 654 元/吨（5500 大卡），同比下降 2 ...

Group 1: Electric Vehicles - The report anticipates a 22% year-on-year increase in domestic new energy vehicle sales in 2025, driven by policies such as trade-in incentives, new model releases, and price reductions [2][16][22] - In Europe, the electric vehicle market is expected to grow by 22% in 2025, supported by carbon emission regulations and ongoing subsidies [2][18][22] - The global demand for power batteries is projected to grow at a rate of 25% in 2025, with a significant increase in battery capacity requirements due to enhanced vehicle range [22][24] Group 2: Wind Power - The domestic wind power market is expected to see a significant increase in installed capacity, with new installations projected at 100 GW for land-based and 12 GW for offshore wind in 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 23% and 114% respectively [3][4] - Internationally, the wind power market is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 16.7% from 2025 to 2030, driven by increased policy support [3] - The report highlights opportunities in offshore wind and related supply chains, including wind turbines, piles, and submarine cables [3] Group 3: Photovoltaics - The report expects global photovoltaic installations to reach 530-560 GW in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 0-6%, influenced by domestic demand and emerging markets [4] - Supply-side reforms are anticipated to play a crucial role in reshaping the industry, with a key window for these reforms expected between the second half of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026 [4] - New technologies such as bifacial cells and metallization processes are highlighted as areas of interest for future growth [4] Group 4: Energy Storage - The domestic energy storage market is projected to grow by 17% year-on-year in 2025, supported by strong bidding data and the advancement of market-oriented electricity pricing [5] - In the U.S., energy storage installations are expected to increase by 23% in 2025, despite concerns over subsidy reductions [5] - The European market is forecasted to see a 36% increase in energy storage installations in 2025, with significant contributions from large-scale commercial storage [5] Group 5: Industrial Control - The industrial control sector is experiencing a recovery, with growth expected in 2025 due to increased demand from traditional and new energy industries [9] - The report emphasizes the potential of humanoid robots and AIDC (Automatic Identification and Data Capture) technologies as key areas for investment [9] - Companies involved in high-value components and new technologies, such as PEEK materials and disc motors, are recommended for attention [9]

Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a focus on structural monetary policy, with limited room for further rate cuts, expecting a slight reduction of 50 basis points in reserve requirement ratios and 10 basis points in interest rates in the second half of 2025[2] - Emphasis on structural policy tools to support monetary expansion and boost the growth of broad money supply and social financing[2] - Initiatives include expanding structural policy tools and piloting innovative monetary policy tools in Shanghai, such as blockchain credit refinancing and cross-border trade refinancing[2] Financial Market Development - The PBOC's measures aim to invigorate the domestic financial market and promote innovation, including offshore trade finance reforms and the development of offshore bonds[4] - The establishment of financial infrastructure like interbank market transaction reporting and personal credit institutions is expected to enhance transparency and risk monitoring[4] - The financial regulatory authority plans to increase support for consumption and key strategic areas, while further deepening reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board[4] Internationalization and Global Strategy - The PBOC's initiatives to support enterprises going global and enhance the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) include developing offshore bonds and optimizing free trade account functions[5] - The establishment of a digital RMB international operation center is anticipated to facilitate cross-border trade and enhance the RMB's status in the global monetary system[5] - The PBOC is expected to promote the use of digital RMB in cross-border payments and settlements, aiding in RMB internationalization[5] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include slower-than-expected progress in domestic financial opening and unexpected volatility in global financial markets[6]

证券研究报告 固收视角 王建刚 联系人 SAC No. S0570124070098 wangjiangang@htsc.com +(86) 755 8249 2388 FOMC 声明和经济预测概要（SEP）要点 美联储召开 6 月 FOMC 会议，联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 4.25~4.5%，连续四次维持利率不变，符合市场预期。会 议声明中，"经济前景的不确定性进一步增加"修改为"不确定性有所下降，但仍处于较高水平"；删除了"认为高失 业和高通胀的风险都有所上升"；总体表述与 5 月声明基本一致。 点阵图显示，2025 年降息次数仍为两次，但从分布上看，内部仍有较大分歧，认为不降息的人数较 3 月明显增加。在 19 位官员中，有 7 位官员认为 2025 年不降息（3 月为 4 位），有 2 位官员认为 2025 年应累计降息 25 个基点，即降息 1 次（3 月为 4 位），有 8 位官员认为 2025 年应降息 2 次（3 月为 9 位），有 2 位官员认为 2025 年应累计降息 3 次（3 月为 2 位）。 不确定性下保持耐心 —6 月 FOMC 点评 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 19 日│中 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Link Real Estate Investment Trust (0823 HK) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 50.59 [1][8] Core Views - Link REIT is the first listed REIT in Hong Kong, focusing on essential consumer scenarios with a total asset valuation of approximately HKD 225.8 billion. The annualized return for unit holders since listing is 10.9%, highlighting its high yield and stable growth characteristics. Factors such as RMB appreciation, population recovery, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and inclusion in the Stock Connect are expected to drive valuation recovery [1][19][24]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report emphasizes that the appreciation of the RMB and the recovery of the resident population are likely to boost the Hong Kong retail sector, creating a favorable environment for local retail recovery [2][20]. - The widening dividend yield spread and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve enhance Link REIT's investment appeal, with the current yield spread at 204 basis points, above the historical average of 187 basis points [3][21]. - The potential inclusion in the Stock Connect could attract long-term funds and increase demand for Link REIT, which has a strong focus on essential consumer assets and a robust ability to withstand economic cycles [3][22]. Differentiation from Market Views - The report argues that concerns regarding the Hong Kong retail sector's performance are manageable, with the stock price having corrected approximately 44% from its 2019 peak, indicating that pessimistic expectations are largely priced in. The report suggests that the market has not fully priced in the positive impacts of RMB appreciation, population recovery, and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts [4][23]. Financial Performance and Valuation - The projected distributable amounts for Link REIT for the fiscal years 2026-2028 are HKD 69.08 billion, HKD 69.82 billion, and HKD 70.52 billion, reflecting a slight decline in 2026 followed by modest growth in subsequent years. The report uses a dividend discount model for valuation, arriving at a target price of HKD 50.59 based on a long-term dividend growth rate of 0.5% [5][19].