证券研究报告 可选消费 创新不止，百年乐高的成长密码 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 12 日│中国内地 深度研究 乐高：创新不止，成就全球玩具龙头 乐高集团历史可追溯至 1916 年，百年来公司持续以创新驱动，从丹麦的木 工作坊逐步成长为全球玩具龙头，打造了极具特色的乐高积木玩具生态。 2024 年乐高集团营业总收入 743 亿丹麦克朗，据欧睿数据，2023 年乐高在 全球玩具市场中市占率 11.5%，在积木玩具中市占率达 72.7%，均位列市场 第一；同时受益于标准化设计+自有工厂+品牌溢价，乐高建立盈利丰厚的商 业模型，2024 年毛利率 68.3%，净利率 18.6%，盈利能力优秀。本篇报告 对乐高的发展历史进行详细梳理，并挖掘玩具品牌得以经久不衰、实现可持 续增长的成长密码，通过乐高的经验启示为国内玩具企业发展提供借鉴。 发展复盘：从木工作坊到积木帝国，百年玩具龙头的成长密码 行业走势图 (26) (16) (7) 3 13 May-24 Sep-24 Jan-25 May-25 (%) 可选消费 轻工制造 沪深300 1）1916-1950 年：创始人奥莱·柯克从木工作坊起家，后转型木质玩具公 司 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [6] Core Insights - The expansion of Asset Investment Companies (AIC) is seen as a significant development, with the approval of new licenses for banks to establish AICs, marking a shift in the banking sector's approach to equity investment [11][12] - AICs are positioned to support technology innovation by providing long-term capital, with the potential to attract additional social funds [22][24] - The regulatory environment has been increasingly favorable, with policies expanding the scope and conditions for AIC equity investments [2][15] Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the recent approval for Industrial Bank to establish an AIC, making it the first joint-stock bank to enter this space, alongside announcements from other banks like China Merchants Bank and CITIC [11][12] Historical Context - AICs were established in 2016 as part of supply-side reforms to address non-performing loans in the banking sector, evolving to include equity investment since 2020 [3][18] Business Opportunities and Challenges - AICs are expected to enhance banks' growth potential by diversifying their business models and improving profitability, although they face challenges related to liquidity management and capital consumption [4][14] - The contribution of AICs to the overall profitability of major banks remains small, with an average contribution of 1.4% to net profit and 0.3% to total assets in 2024 [4][12] Policy Developments - Recent policy changes have expanded the investment scope for AICs, allowing for a higher percentage of total assets to be allocated to equity investments, increasing from 4% to 10% [2][15] - The number of cities eligible for AIC equity investment has expanded to 18, enhancing the operational landscape for banks [2][15] Comparative Analysis - AICs are compared to Asset Management Companies (AMCs) and market-oriented private equity/venture capital firms, highlighting their unique advantages in leveraging bank resources while maintaining a cautious investment approach [26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the communication industry and its sub-sectors, including communication operators [9]. Core Insights - China Mobile has initiated a centralized procurement project for ordinary optical cable products for 2025-2026, with a notable decrease in both procurement scale and price limits, indicating a downward trend in capital expenditure for traditional connections [2][3]. - The optical fiber and cable manufacturers are expected to seek new growth points in saturated markets, such as undersea cables and data center interconnect (DCI) [2][3]. - The report highlights the need to monitor the bidding progress of optical fiber and cable manufacturers and their breakthroughs in new directions [2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The communication index rose by 4.96% last week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index, which increased by 1.92% and 2.29%, respectively [2][13]. - The procurement scale for China Mobile's current round is 0.99 billion core kilometers, down 30.98% from 2021 and 8.65% from 2023 [14]. Procurement Details - The maximum price limit for this round is set at 5.675 billion yuan, a decrease of 42.44% from 2021 and 25.57% from 2023 [14]. - The average procurement price is 57.42 yuan per core kilometer, down 16.6% from 2021 and 18.72% from 2023 [14]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom, with target prices and ratings indicating a bullish outlook [10]. - Specific companies highlighted for their potential include Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication, all rated as "Buy" [10]. Industry Trends - The report notes a significant shift in focus towards AI computing chains and core asset value reassessment within the communication industry [4]. - The demand for optical cables in data centers is projected to account for approximately 5% of global demand by 2025, increasing to over 11% by 2030 [18]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment among optical cable manufacturers is expected to intensify due to the reduced procurement scale and price limits, with a maximum share of 19.36% for winning bidders [15][18]. - Major players are expanding into international undersea communication projects, with companies like Hengtong Optic-Electric actively participating in global markets [19].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Xuji Electric with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of 26.41 RMB, based on a 19x PE for 2025 [1][5][7]. Core Views - Xuji Electric is a key enterprise under China Electric Equipment Group, positioned as a leading supplier of secondary equipment and converter valves in China. The company is expected to benefit from the steady growth of the new power system construction [12][13][17]. - The report anticipates the approval of 5-6 ultra-high voltage direct current (UHVDC) projects and 5-6 back-to-back projects within the year, which will significantly benefit Xuji Electric as a core supplier of converter valves and direct current control protection systems [2][12][13]. - The company has a leading position in flexible direct current technology, with the value of a single conventional UHVDC/back-to-back project estimated at approximately 1.3 billion RMB/300 million RMB, while the value of flexible direct current is about three times that of traditional direct current [2][12][22]. Summary by Sections Business Growth - Xuji Electric's business covers core aspects of the new power system, and its performance is expected to grow steadily alongside the total investment from the State Grid, which is projected to exceed 650 billion RMB in 2025 [3][14][19]. - The company's market share in smart substation products is steadily increasing, with winning bids of 340 million RMB, 495 million RMB, and 533 million RMB for 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, indicating a growing presence in the market [16][22]. Profitability Forecast - The forecasted net profit for Xuji Electric is expected to reach 1.41 billion RMB, 1.82 billion RMB, and 2.12 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a three-year CAGR of 23.8% [5][11]. - The report estimates that a single conventional/flexible UHVDC project could contribute a net profit elasticity of 3.1-4.7%/7.0-11.1% for 2027, while five back-to-back projects could yield a net profit elasticity of 2.3-4.6% for 2025-2026 [4][32][34]. Market Position - Xuji Electric holds approximately 20% and 40% market shares in the UHV converter valve and direct current control protection system markets respectively, indicating a strong competitive position [30][31]. - The company has successfully developed a complete set of core technologies for ±800kV and below flexible direct current converter valves, showcasing its technological leadership in the industry [26][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 43.0 HKD [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 541 million USD, a year-over-year increase of 17.6% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 0.3%, driven by increased wafer shipments [16][20]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 9.2%, up 2.8 percentage points year-over-year but down 2.2 percentage points quarter-over-quarter due to depreciation from new production lines [16][20]. - The company expects Q2 2025 revenue to be between 550 million and 570 million USD, with a gross margin guidance of 7% to 9% [21]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Q1 2025 revenue reached 541 million USD, with wafer shipments of 1.231 million pieces, reflecting a 20% year-over-year increase [16][20]. - The company anticipates a stable ASP (Average Selling Price) throughout the year, with potential for price increases in 12-inch products as capacity ramps up [3][5]. Capacity and Production - The production capacity utilization rate was 102.7% in Q1 2025, with the second 12-inch production line expected to ramp up steadily [2][21]. - The company plans to shorten ramp-up times and increase shipment volumes to stabilize gross margins [2]. Market Trends and Product Segments - The company is benefiting from local production trends accelerated by tariffs, particularly in the analog and power management segments, which saw a 34.8% year-over-year revenue increase [4][26]. - The 12-inch wafer segment generated 310 million USD in Q1 2025, a 40.8% year-over-year increase, while the 8-inch segment saw a decline [24][22]. Financial Forecasts - The report projects revenue growth of 8.2%, 13.1%, and 11.7% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profit estimates of 52 million, 82 million, and 97 million USD for the same years [18][19]. - The target price of 43.0 HKD is based on a 1.5x multiple of the 2025 estimated book value per share [5][29].

Group 1: Trade Negotiation Outcomes - The US will retain 10% of the 20% tariff on fentanyl and suspend 90% of the remaining 24% tariffs for 90 days, while canceling all tariffs imposed on April 8 and 9[1] - China will suspend the implementation of the 24% tariffs on US goods for the initial 90 days, retaining 10% on these products and canceling other subsequent tariffs[1] - The tariff reductions exceed previous investor expectations, potentially raising the volatility center of the domestic equity market[1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - A-shares opened higher and closed up, with significant gains in sectors like power equipment, machinery, and electronics, confirming the positive outlook[2] - The market's risk appetite is expected to increase further due to the positive signals from the US-China negotiations, with potential recovery in the export chain[2] - The current A-share risk premium is influenced by domestic credit cycles and the US dollar cycle, with a reasonable P/E ratio estimated at 21x compared to the current 19x[4] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Short-term recommendations include increasing allocations to technology and export sectors, while maintaining a cautious stance on industries with high US exposure[5] - Mid-term strategies should focus on sectors benefiting from internal certainty, such as public funds and industries with improved earnings forecasts[5] - The Hong Kong market is expected to show relative returns, with recommendations to increase allocations in technology and consumer sectors[6]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" indicating that the expected performance of the industry stocks will exceed the benchmark [7]. Core Insights - The total asset scale of the ETF market has surpassed 4 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month growth of 6.9%, and the stock ETF scale increased by 4.5% due to significant adjustments in the equity market caused by equal tariffs [11][12]. - The "Action Plan for Promoting the High-Quality Development of Public Funds" has been implemented, aiming to enhance the ecosystem of public funds and significantly increase the scale and proportion of equity investments in public funds, which is expected to accelerate the development of stock ETFs [5][31][32]. Summary by Sections Total Scale - As of the end of April 2025, the net asset value of stock ETFs reached 29,484 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 4.5%. The total net asset value of all ETFs exceeded 40,604 billion yuan, with a month-on-month growth of 6.9% [2][12]. Competitive Landscape - The concentration of leading fund companies has slightly increased, with the CR3, CR5, and CR10 reaching 45.1%, 57.8%, and 77.9% respectively, showing a month-on-month increase [3][17]. New Product Launches - In April 2025, stock ETFs raised a total of 9.6 billion yuan through batch issuance, including various thematic ETFs such as those focused on the aerospace and digital economy [4][23]. Policy Dynamics - The recently released "Action Plan for Promoting the High-Quality Development of Public Funds" outlines a comprehensive reform roadmap, emphasizing the need to bind fund company revenues to investor returns and enhance the scale of equity investments [5][31][32].

证券研究报告 宏观 4 月全球 PMI:关税拖累开始显现 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 09 日│中国内地 动态点评 研究员 易峘 evayi@htsc.com SAC No. S0570520100005 SFC No. AMH263 +(852) 3658 6000 研究员 胡李鹏，PhD SAC No. S0570525010001 hulipeng@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 研究员 陈玮 SAC No. S0570524030003 SFC No. BVH374 chenwei023580@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 联系人 赵文瑄 SAC No. S0570124030017 zhaowenxuan@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 图说全球 PMI | 2025 年 4 月 本系列为华泰宏观出品、全球 PMI 月度追踪系列的第二十二期。4 月全球制 造业 PMI 显示关税的影响开始显现，制造业 PMI 回落至荣枯线以下，部分 新兴市场经济体回落较为明显；制造业新订单和新出口订单分项明显回落； 价格指标维持高位，产成品 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" indicating that the expected performance of the industry stock index will surpass the benchmark [7]. Core Insights - The total asset scale of the ETF market has surpassed 4 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month growth of 6.9%, and the stock ETF scale increased by 4.5% [11][12]. - The "High-Quality Development Action Plan for Public Funds" has been implemented, aiming to enhance the ecosystem of public funds and significantly increase the scale and proportion of equity investments in public funds, which is expected to accelerate the development of stock ETFs [5][31][32]. Summary by Sections Total Scale - As of the end of April 2025, the net asset value of stock ETFs reached 29,484 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 4.5%. The total net asset value of all ETFs exceeded 40,604 billion yuan, with a month-on-month growth of 6.9% [2][12]. Competitive Landscape - The concentration of leading fund companies has slightly increased, with the CR3, CR5, and CR10 reaching 45.1%, 57.8%, and 77.9% respectively, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, 0.3%, and 0.2% [3][17]. New Product Launches - In April 2025, stock ETFs raised a total of 9.6 billion yuan through batch issuance, including various thematic ETFs such as those focused on the aerospace and digital economy sectors [4][23]. Policy Dynamics - The "High-Quality Development Action Plan for Public Funds" was released on May 7, 2025, outlining a comprehensive reform roadmap to enhance governance, product issuance, investment operations, and assessment mechanisms within the industry [5][31]. The plan emphasizes increasing the scale and proportion of equity investments in public funds, which is expected to accelerate the development of stock ETFs [32].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 7.15 [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 3.945 billion for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.40%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 138.55 million, up 36.40% year-on-year [1][6]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 747 million, a 10.86% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 40.79 million, reflecting a 32.32% year-on-year growth [1][6]. - The increase in gross margin to 14.81% in 2024, up 3.76 percentage points year-on-year, is attributed to a higher proportion of revenue from transportation vessels [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s gross margin improved to 19.48% in Q1 2025, a slight increase of 0.04 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company delivered 16 transportation vessels and 5 offshore engineering vessels in 2023, with plans to deliver 22 transportation vessels and 5 offshore vessels in 2024 [2]. - The total order backlog for marine engineering design business is RMB 1.39 billion, with construction business orders increasing by 29.37% year-on-year [2]. Market Outlook - The development of "Deep Sea Technology" is expected to enhance the company's order volume, supported by government initiatives to promote the marine economy [3]. - The International Maritime Organization's (IMO) mid-term agreement on shipping carbon emissions is anticipated to boost demand for green vessels, where the company holds a leading position [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards to RMB 189.87 million and RMB 248.54 million, respectively, due to uncertainties in revenue recognition for high-margin businesses [4]. - The company is assigned a PE ratio of 65 times for 2025, reflecting its leadership in ship design and development [4].