Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and service sectors [5]. Core Insights - The real estate market in China is experiencing a seasonal decline in activity, with new home registrations in 44 cities down by 26% week-on-week, and second-hand home registrations down by 15% [1]. - Despite the recent decline, year-to-date new home sales in 44 cities show a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year, while second-hand home sales have surged by 28% [1]. - Inventory levels in 21 key cities have decreased by 0.6% week-on-week, indicating a gradual improvement in market conditions [1]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for companies with strong cash flow and performance, particularly in key urban markets, suggesting potential valuation recovery [3]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The real estate market's activity has seen a seasonal dip, with new home registrations in 44 cities down 26% and second-hand home registrations down 15% week-on-week [1]. - Year-to-date, new home sales in 44 cities are up 0.2% year-on-year, while second-hand home sales have increased by 28% [1]. Inventory and Sales Dynamics - As of May 4, inventory in 21 key cities decreased by 0.6% week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 15% [29]. - The report notes that the de-stocking speed has improved, with a current pace of 80 weeks, which is 3 weeks faster than the previous period [29]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - Chengdu Investment Holdings (600649 CH) with a target price of 6.34 and a "Buy" rating [6]. - Chengjian Development (600266 CH) with a target price of 7.32 and a "Buy" rating [6]. - Binjiang Group (002244 CH) with a target price of 12.08 and a "Buy" rating [6]. - China Overseas Development (688 HK) with a target price of 17.07 and a "Buy" rating [6]. - China Resources Land (1109 HK) with a target price of 32.72 and a "Buy" rating [6]. - The report emphasizes the potential for valuation recovery for companies with solid cash flow and market presence [3].

证券研究报告 金融 公募改革落地，政策组合拳共振 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 11 日│中国内地 行业周报（第十九周） 本周观点 投资机会方面银行>证券>保险。央行降准 50bp+降息 10bp 并引导存款利率 下调，平衡稳息差与降成本。银行系 AIC 布局加速，兴业银行获批筹建国 内第六家 AIC，招商银行、中信银行拟出资设立。国新办新闻发布会召开， 支持资本市场和稳定金融体系的政策组合拳落地；公募基金改革方案发布， 推动行业从"重规模"向"重投资者回报"转型，用 3 年左右形成高质量 发展"拐点"。权益投资偿付能力风险因子下调 10%，有助于推动险资入市， 降低保险公司偿付能力压力。 子行业观点 1）银行：央行降准 50bp+降息 10bp 并引导存款利率下调，平衡稳息差与 降成本。3 月按揭利率边际回升，下一步将出台金融促消费一揽子政策举措， 增加信贷资金供给支持。银行系 AIC 布局加速，为股权投资市场再添活水。 2）证券：公募基金改革方案有望加速行业生态重构，推动头部集中与差异 化竞争。国新办发布会是继去年"924"后的新一轮政策组合拳，从制度、 生态、资金多维度呵护市场平稳运行，权益市场底部有 ...

证券研究报告 工业/基础材料 重点工程积极推进，关注淡季价格支撑 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 11 日│中国内地 行业周报（第十九周） 本周观点：基建重点工程积极推进，关注建材淡季价格回落幅度 上周"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"新闻发布会召开，公布实施降准 降息、公积金贷款和结构性货币政策工具利率下调、房地产融资制度改革等， 有望助力地产需求"止跌回稳"趋势。超长期特别国债和新型政策性金融工 具有望加快基建重点工程建设，今年 1-4 月全国铁路投资同比+5.3%，4 月 单月同比+5.7%，铁路、水利、核电等重点领域基建投资延续高景气。上周 公募基金改革方案发布，中长期有望提升低配的建筑建材龙头配置比例。我 们持续推荐估值尚处于低位的基建链及地产链龙头，短期重点推荐四川路 桥、中材国际、海南华铁、三联虹普、中国建筑国际、华新水泥、上峰水泥、 中材科技、兔宝宝、中国联塑。 上周细分行业回顾 截至 5.9，上周全国水泥价格周环比-1.2%；水泥出货率 48.1%，周环比/同 比-1.5%/-6.1pct；上周国内浮法玻璃均价 71 元/重量箱，周环比/同比 -0.3%/-21.3%，重点样本企业库存 58 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the recent trade agreement framework between the US and UK, which is seen as a potential model for future agreements, although it lacks detailed coverage and may not be easily replicated by other countries [2][3][5] - The report indicates that the trade negotiations between the US and China are ongoing, with expectations of a potential reduction in tariffs, creating a "window period" for possible agreements [5][6] - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by cautious optimism, with improvements in risk sentiment supporting market performance, particularly in the Hong Kong stock market [6][7] Macroeconomic Overview - The global PMI data for April shows a decline in manufacturing new orders and export orders, indicating the impact of tariffs on economic activity [3] - The US Federal Reserve remains cautious, with no immediate changes to monetary policy expected, pending further economic data [3][5] - The report notes that the trade tensions have led to a mixed performance in global markets, with US stocks experiencing slight declines while commodities generally rose [3][5] Industry Analysis - The automotive sector is highlighted for its resilience, with a notable increase in sales for domestic brands like BYD, driven by the "old-for-new" policy stimulating demand [16][18] - Semiconductor company SMIC reported a revenue of $2.25 billion for Q1 2025, with a slight increase in wafer shipments, although ASP declined [18] - The defense sector, represented by Tianhai Defense, showed significant growth in revenue and net profit, benefiting from advancements in deep-sea technology [19] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors supported by government policies, particularly technology and consumer sectors, as well as dividend stocks with stable performance [6][7] - It emphasizes the importance of identifying quality thematic opportunities in the current market environment, particularly in sectors like innovation and technology [13][19] - The report advises maintaining a neutral position in convertible bonds while focusing on specific opportunities within the market [13][14]

证券研究报告 汽车 年报及 Q1 总结：智能加码，出口强劲 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 11 日│中国内地 专题研究 25Q1 以旧换新政策延续+智驾平权，乘用车业绩同比改善 25Q1 以旧换新政策快速衔接，刺激终端需求同比向好，乘用车板块营收/ 归母净利润分别同比+8%/+19%。板块内表现分化：1) 新能源渗透率提升， 规模效应增强下自主品牌盈利能力同比改善。比亚迪推进"智驾平权"，月 销量维持在 30 万辆，利润兑现度较高；2）合资持续承压，以价换量策略收 效有限，销量同比继续下滑；3）受汇兑收益影响，汽车及乘用车财务费用 率同比大幅下降。展望后市，我们看好 Q2 各省市促消费政策和自主品牌智 能化新车协同发力下，乘用车板块维持高景气，业绩水平进一步向好。 奇瑞/吉利/小米链表现强势，智能化/底盘板块营收同比增速跑赢平均 具体看零部件板块：1）奇瑞/吉利/小米 24Q4/25Q1 产销表现强势，带动核 心供应商如伯特利/瑞鹄模具/无锡振华/保隆科技/华阳集团等营收和利润实 现较快增长。特斯拉产销波动使得部分供应商如旭升股份/新泉股份/福赛科 技等业绩受一定影响。2）24Q4/25Q1 智能化板块收入 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 2.23 [8][9]. Core Views - The company announced plans to acquire 80% of Malaysian aerial work platform leader TH Tong Heng Machinery Sdn. Bhd. for approximately RMB 299 million, which is expected to enhance its competitiveness in the Malaysian equipment rental market and deepen its overseas business layout [1][4]. - The acquisition price corresponds to 6 times the adjusted EBITDA, with the target company projected to achieve a revenue CAGR of 31% from 2021 to 2024 [2][5]. - The shareholder agreement includes a lock-up period of 11 years, preemptive rights, board representation, and options to acquire the remaining shares [3][4]. Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - The acquisition involves a total consideration of RM 176 million (approximately RMB 299 million), with the target company's total assets and net assets projected to be RM 160 million and RM 90 million respectively by the end of 2024 [2]. - The target company is ranked first in Malaysia and 71st globally in the ACCESS50 list for aerial work platforms, indicating its strong market position [4]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of RMB 949.86 million, RMB 1,027 million, and RMB 1,131 million for the years 2025 to 2027 respectively [5][18]. - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 11,581 million in 2024 to RMB 14,355 million in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.22% [7][18]. Valuation Metrics - The company is valued at a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 7x for 2025, with a target price of HKD 2.23 based on this valuation [5][9]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be RMB 0.30, with a return on equity (ROE) of 8.06% [7][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the public utility sector and the environmental sector [7] Core Insights - The environmental performance exceeded expectations, and the profitability of thermal power is expected to improve due to declining coal prices [2][3] - The cash flow for environmental companies is anticipated to continue improving, supported by debt reduction policies emphasized in the recent political meetings [5] Summary by Sections Thermal Power - The decline in coal prices has led to a significant increase in the net profit of thermal power companies, with a median year-on-year growth of 145% in Q4 2024, surpassing previous forecasts [12] - The expected net profit growth for thermal power companies in 2025 is projected at 5%, with market expectations for several companies being adjusted downwards by 10-20% since March 1, 2025 [15][18] Hydropower - The hydropower sector experienced a median year-on-year net profit decline of 58% in Q4 2024, but a recovery is expected with a 26% growth in Q1 2025 [24][25] - The market consensus for the net profit growth of hydropower companies in 2025 is set at 13%, with slight downward adjustments in expectations for several companies [26] Renewable Energy - The renewable energy sector's net profit growth was below expectations, with a median year-on-year growth of -30% in Q4 2024, but a slight recovery to 1% in Q1 2025 is anticipated [20] - The cash flow situation for renewable energy companies has shown improvement, with many companies reporting positive operating cash flow in 2024 [22][23] Natural Gas - The natural gas supply-demand balance has shifted to a relatively loose state, impacting profitability negatively, with a median net profit growth forecast for gas companies being adjusted downwards by 3% since March 1, 2025 [4] Environmental Sector - The environmental companies reported a higher-than-expected net profit in Q1 2025, benefiting from improved cash flow due to debt reduction policies [5] - The operating cash flow for environmental companies increased by 18% year-on-year in 2024, indicating a positive trend in financial health [5][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemicals and oil and gas sectors [4]. Core Viewpoints - The overall price spread in the industry improved in April 2025, with downstream sectors expected to recover first due to cost reduction and demand improvement [1][8]. - The April PMI data indicates a slight contraction in the chemical raw materials and products industry, suggesting ongoing supply-demand mismatches [1][11]. - The report anticipates a recovery starting in the second half of 2025, driven by improved domestic demand and exports to Asia, Africa, and Latin America [1][11]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The price spread for downstream chemical products improved in April due to supply constraints and seasonal demand replenishment, while midstream products still await recovery [2][8]. - The April PMI data was reported at 49, indicating a contraction in the chemical sector, but a recovery is expected as domestic economic conditions improve [11][24]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the second half of 2025 may mark the beginning of an upward trend, with a focus on resilient internal and external demand and improved competitive landscapes [3][32]. - Recommended stocks include China Petroleum, Hengli Petrochemical, and Juhua Co., with a focus on companies with strong dividend yields and cost reduction capabilities [6][32]. Key Recommendations - The report highlights specific companies for investment based on their competitive positioning and potential for recovery, including: - China Petroleum (601857 CH) with a target price of 9.79 and an "Overweight" rating [6]. - Hengli Petrochemical (600346 CH) with a target price of 17.55 and an "Overweight" rating [6]. - Juhua Co. (600160 CH) with a target price of 31.92 and a "Buy" rating [6]. - Other recommended companies include Dongyue Group, Luxi Chemical, Meihua Biological Technology, and Xinghuo Technology [6][32].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Galaxy Entertainment is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of HKD 39.50 [7][8]. Core Insights - Galaxy Entertainment's GGR (Gross Gaming Revenue) recovery in the mass market and slot machines is stronger than the industry average, although there is a sequential decline in GGR, possibly due to the completion of renovations at Sands, leading to customer migration back to Sands [1][2]. - The EBITDA margin has improved sequentially, with adjusted EBITDA reaching HKD 3.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16% [1][2]. - The company is actively responding to the trend of casual gaming by accelerating its non-gaming transformation, including expanding its slot machine business and hosting concerts to attract visitors [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, Galaxy Entertainment reported net revenue of HKD 11.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6% but a sequential decrease of 1% [1]. - The adjusted EBITDA for the same period was HKD 3.3 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16% and a sequential increase of 2% [1]. - The adjusted EBITDA margin (excluding construction) was 32.4%, compared to 32.3% in Q1 2019 and 30.6% in Q4 2024 [1]. Visitor Trends and Future Outlook - The May Day holiday saw strong visitor traffic in Macau, with an average of 170,000 visitors per day, significantly exceeding the tourism bureau's forecast [3]. - Upcoming concerts featuring popular artists are expected to continue driving visitor traffic and GGR in the coming months [3]. - The opening of the Capella hotel is anticipated to enhance visitor attraction, although the impact of frequent performances by certain artists may be limited [3][4]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for Galaxy Entertainment remains unchanged, with projected gross gaming revenue of HKD 45.2 billion, HKD 50.1 billion, and HKD 55.3 billion for 2025-2027 [4]. - The EBITDA estimates for the same period are HKD 14.7 billion, HKD 15.4 billion, and HKD 17 billion respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for banks and securities [10] Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in wealth management product yields and an increase in the scale of bank wealth management products, with a total scale of 30.95 trillion yuan as of April 2025, up by 2.06 trillion yuan month-on-month [2][3][17] - The report suggests focusing on high-quality individual stocks, recommending China Merchants Bank (招商银行) and securities firms with strong advantages in the wealth management industry, such as Guangfa Securities (广发证券) and Dongfang Securities (东方证券) [2][17] Summary by Sections Bank Wealth Management - In April 2025, the total number of wealth management products issued was 5,985, a decrease of 3.2% month-on-month, while the total scale of bank wealth management products reached 30.95 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.15% month-on-month [3][38] - The overall yield of wealth management products has increased, driven by a strong bond market, although equity product yields have declined due to market volatility [3][18] Public Funds - As of the end of April 2025, the total scale of public funds reached 31.92 trillion yuan, up by 0.99% month-on-month and 9.84% year-on-year [4][17] - The issuance of public funds in April was 92.5 billion units, a decrease of 8.36% month-on-month, while stock ETF shares and net asset values increased by 4% to 2.03 trillion units and 2.95 trillion yuan, respectively [4][17] Securities Asset Management - As of Q4 2024, the scale of securities asset management was 6.10 trillion yuan, down by 3% quarter-on-quarter, with new issuance in April 2025 totaling 2.322 billion units, a decrease of 8.57% [5][17] Private Funds - As of the end of March 2025, the total scale of private funds was 19.97 trillion yuan, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.17% [6][17] - The newly registered scale of private securities investment funds increased significantly year-on-year, with a total of 329.78 billion yuan, up by 232.74% [6][17] Insurance Asset Management - As of Q4 2024, the balance of insurance funds reached 33.26 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.08% year-on-year, with investments in bonds and stocks both increasing [7][17] Trusts - As of Q2 2024, the total asset scale of the trust industry was 27.00 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.87% year-to-date and 24.52% year-on-year [8][17] - In April 2025, the issuance scale of trust products was 20.555 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 78.84% month-on-month [8][17]