美股：盈利或下修，"Fed Put"效果不如以往，关注金融流动性压力 证券研究报告 策略 海外市场 2H25 展望：再平衡进行时 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 03 日│中国内地 中期策略 下半年海外市场展望：波动延续，浪里寻"珠" 上半年海外市场经历了 AI 产业趋势和关税扰动两大主线，一是 DeepSeek 横空出世助力中国资产重估，并压制美国科技例外论表现；二是关税政策反 复无常，市场波动率大幅走高。展望下半年，中美市场宏观主线或均从预期 到现实过渡，关税扰动逐渐脱敏，经济基本面重要性上升。资本市场或延续 高波动状态，宏观环境提供的上行空间有限，产业趋势和结构性行情是主 要抓手，四季度环境可能更加适宜。 美国关税政策依然充满变数，市场或维持高波动状态。关税影响尚未反映至 经济硬数据，也未完全反映在美股盈利预期。我们结合宏观预测数据测算， 2025 年美股 EPS 仍有 3%~4%下修空间，减税政策对盈利改善帮助不大。 美股估值进一步提升空间有限，风险溢价已经在历史低位，美债利率易上难 下。在失去隔夜逆回购缓冲垫下，债限解决后的发债量增加可能造成金融流 动性压力，需要密切关注。三季度美股可能经历增长下行 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company has entered into a global exclusive licensing agreement with Regeneron for HS-20094, receiving an upfront payment of $80 million and potential milestone payments of up to $1.93 billion, along with a future sales revenue share [1][2] - The company is focused on innovation and business development (BD) to drive stable growth, with a strong pipeline of over 40 new molecular entities in development [3][4] - The expected sales for HS-20094 and other key products are projected to significantly contribute to the company's revenue growth in the coming years [5] Summary by Sections Licensing and Collaboration - The company has secured a licensing deal for HS-20094, which is expected to enhance its product portfolio and revenue potential [1][2] Product Pipeline and Clinical Trials - HS-20094 has shown promising results in clinical trials, with significant reductions in HbA1c and weight observed [2] - The company is advancing multiple products through various stages of clinical trials, including HS-20093 and HS-20089, which are expected to enter critical phases soon [4] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of RMB 47.18 billion, RMB 42.03 billion, and RMB 47.43 billion for 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.79, RMB 0.71, and RMB 0.80 [5][7] - The target price for the company's stock is set at HKD 28.95, reflecting an increase from the previous target of HKD 23.82 [5][9]

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Insights - The overall liquidity in the market remains balanced, with a net injection of 656.6 billion yuan last week, following a total of 1,602.6 billion yuan in reverse repos [2][3][20] - The average DR007 increased by 10 basis points to 1.7%, while R007 rose by 5 basis points to 1.64% [2][3] - The bond market is expected to exhibit a fluctuating trend in the second half of the year, with the ten-year government bond yield projected to fluctuate between 1.5% and 1.8% [20] Group 2: Real Estate Sector Analysis - The real estate market shows signs of stabilization, with new home sales experiencing a slight recovery, while second-hand home transactions have cooled down [27] - Policies aimed at stabilizing the market are being implemented, with a focus on urban village renovations and financial support [27] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in commercial real estate and property management sectors, emphasizing the importance of "good credit, good cities, and good products" [27] Group 3: Agricultural Sector Trends - Post-Duanwu Festival, pig prices have slightly declined by 0.02 yuan/kg, while white chicken and aquatic product prices remain strong [5] - The pig farming industry is expected to maintain profitability, with industry profits exceeding 50 yuan per head in May [5] - Recommendations include focusing on companies with high growth potential in feed exports and traditional animal health sectors [5] Group 4: Chemical and Oil Industry Outlook - The chemical sector is anticipated to see a recovery point in the second half of 2025, driven by demand recovery and a slowdown in capital expenditure [21] - Oil prices face short-term pressures from demand concerns, but cost reductions and demand improvements may support downstream recovery [21] - Recommendations include leading companies in the sector such as China Petroleum and various chemical firms with optimized market positions [21] Group 5: Insurance Sector Developments - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from a potential reduction in preset interest rates, improving the cost-benefit situation for life insurance products [25] - The current low valuation of insurance stocks presents an opportunity for gains, particularly in the context of improving liquidity and fundamentals [25] - Key companies to watch include China Pacific Insurance, Ping An Insurance, and China Life Insurance [25] Group 6: Technology and Robotics Sector Insights - The Robovan unmanned logistics vehicle is gaining traction in the express delivery sector, with significant orders indicating strong demand [9] - Companies like New Stone Technology and NineSight are rapidly producing vehicles to meet market needs, with orders exceeding 20,000 units [9] - Investment opportunities are suggested in logistics and component companies as the unmanned vehicle market expands [9] Group 7: Macro Economic Trends - The macroeconomic outlook for China in the second half of 2025 indicates a potential for the renminbi to appreciate, enhancing the attractiveness of Chinese assets [10] - The report highlights the importance of structural trends and industry dynamics as key investment drivers amid a high-volatility environment [13] - The focus on core assets in A-shares, particularly in technology and consumption sectors, is emphasized as a strategy for capitalizing on recovery [14]

Key Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the real estate sector, with a month-on-month sales increase of 17.0% for the top 100 real estate companies in May 2025, although year-on-year sales decreased by 7.9% [7][21] - The Robo X industry, including Robotaxi and Robovan, is experiencing accelerated commercialization, driven by policy and industry resonance, with significant growth in fleet size and order volume [5] - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from a potential reduction in preset interest rates, improving the cost structure of life insurance products and enhancing sales momentum [20] Group 1: Real Estate - In May 2025, the sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies increased by 17.0% month-on-month, indicating a narrowing decline compared to April [7] - The cumulative sales from January to May 2025 showed a year-on-year decrease of 9.9%, but the decline rate has narrowed [7][21] - The report suggests that the gradual implementation of financial policies will help stabilize the real estate market [7] Group 2: Robo X Industry - The commercialization of Robo X, represented by Robotaxi and Robovan, is accelerating, with major companies expanding their fleets and increasing order volumes [5] - The logistics potential of Robovan is highlighted, with a positive cycle of technology cost reduction and scenario validation [5] - The report emphasizes the investment opportunities across the entire Robo X industry chain, recommending focus on core operating platforms and high-growth hardware suppliers [5] Group 3: Insurance Sector - The expected adjustment in preset interest rates for life insurance products is anticipated to improve the cost-benefit situation, potentially enhancing sales dynamics [20] - The insurance sector's stock valuations are currently at historical lows, with the potential for recovery as liquidity and fundamentals improve [20] - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong asset-liability matching, such as China Pacific Insurance and Ping An Insurance [20]

证券研究报告 基础材料 波涌回调藏富路，且将机遇入囊中 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 03 日│中国内地 中期策略 压力与机遇并存，把握回调后的战略配置机遇 "逆全球化"背景下，黄金投资框架发生变化，在矿产金供给相对稳定的前 提下，央行等资产配置需求的大规模增加将利于金价长期上涨。美国通胀预 期、财政赤字、降息预期或均利好黄金，看好金价在特朗普任期内涨至 4500 美金/盎司以上。针对铜，短期需谨防关税扰动下需求提前透支后的回调风 险，长期看好其供需格局的持续改善。针对铝，25H1 光伏抢装和抢出口导 致需求高增长，尽管三季度或存在需求走弱预期，但电解铝价格下跌幅度或 有限；成本下降和供给硬约束或帮助电解铝利润在 25H2-26 年再扩张。针 对钢铁，25 年供给侧优化或重启，铁矿供需格局或趋松，钢价上行空间有 限但行业利润有望持续改善。 黄金：理解边际定价逻辑，特朗普任期或突破 4500 美金/盎司 在历次黄金上涨大周期中，全球经济大变局往往强化特定要素，催生新的边 际买家，重塑黄金投资框架。理解边际买家对价格的主导作用，有助于理解 2022 年以来金价的持续上涨。我们认为，除非美国恢复高增长低通胀并行的 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [6] Core Viewpoints - The Robovan unmanned logistics vehicle is accelerating commercialization driven by strong demand in urban distribution, particularly in the express delivery sector [1] - The commercialization of unmanned logistics vehicles is at a turning point due to the convergence of cost reduction, technological advancements, and downstream demand for cost efficiency [2] - The business model allows downstream companies to purchase unmanned logistics vehicles, which are then operated through a software app, leading to significant cost savings [3] - Current regulations and road rights are not unified, with low-speed urban distribution being the primary operational scenario for unmanned logistics vehicles [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The unmanned logistics vehicle Robovan is gaining traction in the express delivery sector, with potential expansion into other urban distribution areas such as fresh produce and supermarkets [1] - Key players include startups with L4 autonomous driving technology and logistics experience, as well as delivery companies and multi-scenario L4 companies [1] Cost and Technology - The manufacturing cost of unmanned logistics vehicles has decreased to the mid-ten thousand yuan range due to the scaling of suppliers in the passenger vehicle autonomous driving industry [2] - The application of end-to-end large models in autonomous driving has reduced the reliance on high-precision maps, facilitating quicker delivery and operational flexibility [2] Business Model - The business model involves suppliers conducting road data testing and vehicle production, with downstream companies operating the vehicles via a software app [3] - The pricing model includes a vehicle purchase or leasing option, along with a software subscription service, which is more cost-effective than traditional labor costs [3] Regulatory Environment - Road rights for unmanned vehicles vary significantly across regions, with no national standard, limiting the deployment of unmanned logistics vehicles primarily to low-speed urban delivery [4] - In 2022, there were approximately 14.59 million vehicles used for urban distribution, indicating a vast potential market for unmanned logistics vehicles [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the Southeast Asian fintech sector [8] Core Insights - Southeast Asia's fintech industry has significant growth potential, driven by a robust macroeconomic environment, improving infrastructure, and a friendly policy landscape [13][16] - The four main areas of fintech development are digital payments, internet lending, insurtech, and virtual assets [17][20] - The region's GDP growth is approximately 5%, with a population of 630 million, predominantly under 40 years old, providing a strong consumer base [22][23] Digital Payments - Digital payment penetration is expected to increase, with 44% of transactions still conducted in cash as of 2024, compared to 5.8% in China [39][40] - The COVID-19 pandemic has shifted consumer habits towards online payments, with 33% of consumers using e-wallets for the first time during the pandemic [40] - The main digital payment methods are card payments and e-wallets, with a competitive landscape lacking a dominant player like Alipay or WeChat Pay in China [38][50] Internet Lending - The internet lending market in Southeast Asia is projected to grow from $48 billion in 2022 to $71 billion in 2024, with a penetration rate of only 1.8% [4][14] - The lending market is characterized by high pricing limits (18-180%), small loan amounts (average $18), and short durations, providing substantial profit margins [4][14] - The risk profile is relatively stable, with SeaMoney's 90-day overdue rate at 1.1%, lower than domestic platforms in China [14][16] Insurtech - The insurtech market in Southeast Asia is in its early stages, with a market size of approximately $2.4 billion in 2024, expected to reach $7.5 billion by 2030 [5][14] - The penetration rate of insurtech is low, at about 1.5-3.1%, compared to 8.8% in China [5][14] - Three main business models exist: insurtech platforms, full-stack insurtechs, and insurtech enablers, with the latter focusing on B2B solutions [5][14] Virtual Assets - Southeast Asia shows high interest in virtual assets, with six countries ranking in the top 20 for global cryptocurrency adoption, and Indonesia ranked third [6][14] - The regulatory environment is generally supportive, with governments encouraging the development of the virtual asset market while managing risks [6][14] - Indonesia's cryptocurrency transaction volume reached $157.1 billion from July 2023 to June 2024, the highest in the region [6][14]

多元金融 证券研究报告 十问稳定币 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 03 日│中国内地 动态点评 美、港（中国香港）立法凸显战略考量 2025 年 5 月 19 日和 21 日，美国和中国香港分别通过稳定币相关立法，明 确了稳定币监管框架，这是继比特币 ETF 之后，对加密货币认可的又一里 程碑事件。美国和中国香港对稳定币的监管规则制定持积极态度，稳定币被 视为未来数字金融基础设施的重要组成部分，均希望通过正确管理稳定币， 进一步扩大法币的影响力，巩固各自金融中心地位。我们梳理了十条问题， 作为投资者了解稳定币的参考。 1. 什么是稳定币？稳定币是基于区块链技术的加密货币，客户通过支付法 币获得区块链上的稳定币。稳定币主要与法币（美元为主）以固定兑换比例 挂钩，才称之为稳定币。截至 2025 年 6 月 2 日全球稳定币总市值超过 2,300 亿美元，其中 USDT 和 USDC 合计市值 2,140 亿美元，占比约九成。 2. 稳定币的主要用途是什么？稳定币是一种较为纯粹的支付手段，其价值 锚定法币，没有利息，增值属性弱。稳定币省略了传统支付方式中必须的中 心节点和基础设施，从而起到降低支付成本，提升支付效 ...

Group 1 - The macroeconomic trends since 2025 have shown surprises, challenges, and opportunities, with a notable recovery in domestic demand and production efficiency improvements driven by high-tech investments [1][12][13] - The real GDP growth forecast for 2025 is maintained at around 5%, with nominal GDP and domestic demand expected to slightly recover compared to last year, primarily supported by the real estate sector and service industry price stabilization [3][36][39] - The adjustment in the real estate cycle is expected to stabilize and rebound consumer spending, with significant potential for service consumption recovery in the second half of 2025 [4][36] Group 2 - The high-tech sector is experiencing a resurgence in capital expenditure, particularly in AI and advanced manufacturing, which is anticipated to accelerate investment growth [4][13][25] - The weakening of the US dollar and declining oil prices are expected to enhance global liquidity, creating structural opportunities for China to expand domestic demand and asset markets [2][19] - The trend of "de-dollarization" is likely to accelerate, leading to increased demand for RMB assets and a potential revaluation of the RMB in the context of a weakening dollar [5][19][31]

Group 1: Policy Outlook - The report indicates that the U.S. tariff fluctuations are expected to decrease, with a focus on domestic policies as the Trump administration faces feedback constraints from judicial bodies and the market [2][12]. - The total level of tariffs imposed by the U.S. on global imports is projected to stabilize around 15%, with strategic goods like steel, aluminum, and pharmaceuticals likely to retain high tariffs [2][12]. - The "Beautiful Bill" passed by the House is expected to increase the fiscal deficit by $3.1 trillion over ten years, with the deficit rate potentially rising to 7% by 2026 [3][13][25]. Group 2: Economic Growth Forecast - Following a negative growth in Q1, the U.S. economic growth momentum is anticipated to recover marginally from May onwards, with annual growth expected to reach 1.6% in 2025 [3][27]. - The report predicts that consumer confidence and corporate investment willingness will improve due to fiscal expansion and reduced tariff impacts, contributing to a more stable labor market with an unemployment rate around 4.5% [3][27][30]. - The report highlights that while the labor market remains resilient, new non-farm employment is expected to slow down in the second half of 2025 due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs and immigration policies [30]. Group 3: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Core inflation in the U.S. is expected to remain sticky, with projections indicating it will stay above 3% annually through 2026, influenced by fiscal expansion and tariff policies [3][4][28]. - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement preventive rate cuts in late 2025, although high long-term interest rates may limit the effectiveness of these cuts [4][10]. - The report suggests that the high yield on U.S. Treasury bonds could become a significant constraint on fiscal and tariff policies, as well as market performance [4][10][40]. Group 4: Asset Valuation and Market Dynamics - The valuation premium of the U.S. dollar and dollar-denominated assets is expected to continue shrinking, with rising risk premiums and challenges in bond yields [4][10]. - The report forecasts that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will remain in the range of 4.5% to 5% in the second half of 2025, which could negatively impact stock valuations [4][10][41]. - The report notes that the rapid increase in Treasury yields could drag down stock valuations, indicating a potential volatility source for risk assets [4][10][41].