证券研究报告 杭州银行 (600926 CH) 转债夯实资本，助力业务拓张 | 华泰研究 | | | 动态点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 5 月 | 26 日│中国内地 | 区域性银行 | 2025 年 5 月 26 日，杭州银行公告称已触发 "杭银转债"有条件赎回条款。 杭州银行植根优质区域，扩表保持强劲力度，盈利能力领先，资产质量优异。 25Q1 各项经营指标均保持上市银行第一梯队，彰显优异成长性。转债完成 强赎后，将进一步夯实公司资本，支撑业务扩张，维持增持评级。 转债触发强赎，夯实公司资本 公司公告称自 2025 年 4 月 29 日至 2025 年 5 月 26 日期间，已有 15 个交 易日收盘价不低于"杭银转债"当期转股价格 11.35 元/股的 130%（含 130%），已触发"杭银转债"的有条件赎回条款。本次可转债提前赎回完成 后，将进一步增强公司的资本实力，为扩表提供支撑。公司 25Q1 末未转股 余额 106 亿元，以 25Q1 末风险加权资产规模测算，将提升核心一级资本充 足率 0.83pct 至 9.84%。 股本摊薄有限，盈利能力 ...

保险 证券研究报告 美元贬值对台日寿险业的影响 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 26 日│中国内地 动态点评 美元贬值扰动台日寿险业盈利 5 月以来新台币对美元大幅升值 7%，对美元有较大敞口的中国台湾寿险业 或面临不利影响。中国台湾寿险业 70%的资产投向以美元为主的海外资产， 考虑汇率对冲后的净敞口也高达总资产的 20-30%。以货币互换/远期等衍生 工具为主的对冲手段并非解决汇率风险的完美手段，实际对冲成本受多种因 素影响，波动较大。在美元快速贬值背景下，新台币的对冲成本迅速上升， 或对寿险业盈利造成不利影响。日本情况类似，以美元为主的总外币敞口约 为寿险业总资产的四分之一，其中一半敞口有对冲覆盖，2025 年来美元贬 值背景下寿险业盈利同样或受到不利影响。 中国台湾寿险业：70%总资产投向海外 为了在低利率环境中提高投资收益率，中国台湾寿险业在资产端逐步增配外 币资产。截至 2024 年末，寿险业海外投资比例已经达到 70%。海外资产配 置中美元资产或过半，其余资产分布在欧洲和亚太市场。资产类别以债券为 主，权益比例相对不高。如此高的外币敞口，必须采用对冲工具平滑汇率风 险。以头部寿险公司富邦人寿为例 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 142.40 [6][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 86.6 billion for Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 18%, which exceeded consensus expectations by 1% [2][3]. - Operating profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 10.6 billion, surpassing expectations by 23%, while adjusted net profit reached RMB 10.9 billion, exceeding expectations by 11% [2][3]. - The management indicated that while short-term subsidy competition in the domestic food delivery market may impact profits, the long-term profitability is expected to return to reasonable levels due to the company's strong operational capabilities and market position [3][4]. Revenue and Profitability Summary - Q1 2025 revenue breakdown includes core local business revenue of RMB 64.3 billion (yoy +18%) and new business revenue of RMB 22.2 billion (yoy +19%) [2]. - The company has seen a 25% year-over-year increase in active merchants for its dine-in services, and the flash purchase segment has expanded its product categories significantly [2][3]. - The company anticipates revenue for 2025 to be RMB 385.9 billion, with adjusted net profit projected at RMB 40.5 billion, reflecting a cautious adjustment due to expected subsidy competition [4][5]. Valuation and Forecast - The valuation for the company's various segments includes an 8x PE for the food delivery business, 24x PE for the dine-in business, and 40x PE for the flash purchase business, leading to a target price of HKD 142.40 [4][11][12]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 23.5 billion from the food delivery segment in 2025, with a significant reduction in the previous forecast due to competitive pressures [11][12]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 is RMB 40.5 billion, with a projected EPS of RMB 6.63 [5][22].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 142.40 [6][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 86.6 billion for Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 18%, which exceeded consensus expectations by 1% [2][3]. - Operating profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 10.6 billion, surpassing expectations by 23%, while adjusted net profit reached RMB 10.9 billion, exceeding expectations by 11% [2][3]. - The management indicated that while short-term subsidy competition in the domestic food delivery market may impact profits, the long-term profitability is expected to return to reasonable levels due to the company's strong operational capabilities and market position [3][4]. Revenue and Profitability Summary - Q1 2025 revenue breakdown includes core local business revenue of RMB 64.3 billion (yoy +18%) and new business revenue of RMB 22.2 billion (yoy +19%) [2]. - The company has seen a 25% year-over-year increase in active merchants for its dine-in services, and the flash purchase segment has expanded its product categories significantly [2][3]. - The company anticipates revenue for 2025 to be RMB 385.9 billion, with adjusted net profit projected at RMB 40.5 billion, reflecting a cautious adjustment due to competitive pressures [4][5]. Valuation and Forecast - The valuation for the company's various segments includes an 8x PE for the food delivery business, 24x PE for the dine-in business, and 40x PE for the flash purchase business, leading to a target price of HKD 142.40 [4][11][14]. - The company is expected to achieve adjusted net profits of RMB 40.5 billion in 2025, with a gradual increase in profitability anticipated in subsequent years [5][22].

证券研究报告 策略 资金透视：平稳中的结构亮点 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 26 日│中国内地 策略周报 核心观点 近期市场处于日历效应的缺失期，资金活跃度有所降低，但不乏部分方向存在 结构亮点：1）交易性资金热度回落，融资资金活跃度回落至 8.4%（1 月中上 旬水平），私募资金仓位稳定但调研数目回落；2）结构上亮点在于，公募基金 消费方向仓位回升、行业 ETF 对制造板块转为净流入、回购数额占流通市值比 重较高的行业为医药及交通运输，仍呈现较为分散状态；3）配置型外资上期 转为净流出，其中被动型外资是流出主力，当前全球配置型资金对 A 股仓位仍 处于去年 9 月以来相对低位。向后看，仍维持资金面偏平稳的判断。 关注点 1：交易型资金热度环比回落，配置延续分化 上周，交易型资金热度回落，资金配置分化延续：1）散户资金上周净流出 环比扩大，配置仍偏向防御红利，流入银行、煤炭、公用事业等行业；2） 融资资金上周转向净流出（55 亿元），交易活跃度由 9.1%环比回落至 8.4%， 买入汽车等景气方向；3）上周行业 ETF 转向小幅净流入，国防军工等主题 是其主要的买入方向；4）公募基金仓位维持相对稳定，关注 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][4]. Core Views - The company recorded a revenue of 1.906 billion RMB in Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 29.8%, while net profit was 244 million RMB, down 5.5% year-over-year due to increased equity incentive payments [1]. - The retail business is experiencing strong growth, with a GMV of 845 million RMB in Q1 2025, up 70.9% year-over-year, leading to an upward revision of the revenue growth guidance for 2025 to 50% [3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing brand competitiveness and user engagement through differentiated products and improved member experiences, aiming to achieve the "2000 good stores" target by the end of 2025 [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the full year 2024, the company expects revenue of 7.248 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 55.3%, and a net profit of 1.275 billion RMB, up 73% year-over-year [1]. - The adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was 345 million RMB, reflecting a 32.3% year-over-year increase [1]. Business Segments - The hotel segment's revenue from franchise and direct-operated hotels in Q1 2025 was 1.032 billion RMB and 129 million RMB, respectively, with franchise revenue growing by 23.5% year-over-year [2]. - The retail segment's growth is driven by strong performance in pillow products and rapid sales of new bedding items, which are well-coordinated with the hotel business [1][3]. Market Position and Valuation - The company is positioned as a leader in the mid-to-high-end market, with a target price of 41.22 USD based on a 25x PE ratio for 2025 [4][8]. - The expected EPS for 2025 is 11.86 RMB, with a projected growth rate of 27.94% for the following years [6][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the telecommunications sector [10] Core Insights - The combined capital expenditure of BAT (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent) for Q1 2025 reached 54.4 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 105% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 23% [2][3][15] - The decline in capital expenditure is attributed to the impact of NVIDIA's H20 export restrictions, but the long-term growth trend in capital expenditure is expected to remain intact [2][3][17] - The report suggests focusing on domestic GPU capabilities and related supply chains, including optical modules, AIDC, switches, and copper connections, as they are likely to fill the demand gap created by the restrictions [2][3][17] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The telecommunications index fell by 2.31% last week, while the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.57% and 0.46%, respectively [2][14] Key Companies and Dynamics - The report highlights a positive outlook for the AI computing chain in the telecommunications industry for 2025, recommending companies such as Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, Taicheng Light, and Ruijie Network [4] - Core asset value reassessment is recommended for China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom, along with a focus on new productivity in satellite internet, low-altitude economy, and deep-sea technology [4] Capital Expenditure Insights - In Q1 2025, Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent's capital expenditures were 2.9 billion, 24 billion, and 27.5 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +42%, +136%, and +91% [3][15] - The report notes that the capital expenditure for Q1 is typically lower than that of Q4 in previous years, indicating a seasonal trend [17] Recommendations - The report recommends a focus on companies involved in the domestic GPU supply chain and related industries due to the anticipated growth in AI applications and infrastructure investments [2][3][17]

今日早参 2025 年 5 月 27 日 何康 策略首席研究员兼金融工程联席首席 研究员 座机：021-28972202 邮箱：hekang@htsc.com 仇文竹 债券策略研究组长 座机：13910895671 邮箱：qiuwenzhu@htsc.com 今日热点 策略：资金透视：平稳中的结构亮点 近期市场处于日历效应的缺失期，资金活跃度有所降低，但不乏部分方向存 在结构亮点：1）交易性资金热度回落，融资资金活跃度回落至 8.4%（1 月 中上旬水平），私募资金仓位稳定但调研数目回落；2）结构上亮点在于，公 募基金消费方向仓位回升、行业 ETF 对制造板块转为净流入、回购数额占流 通市值比重较高的行业为医药及交通运输，仍呈现较为分散状态；3）配置 型外资上期转为净流出，其中被动型外资是流出主力，当前全球配置型资金 对 A 股仓位仍处于去年 9 月以来相对低位。向后看，仍维持资金面偏平稳的 判断。 风险提示：1）估算持仓模型失效；2）数据统计口径有误。 研报发布日期：2025-05-26 研究员 何康 SAC:S0570520080004 SFC:BRB318 王伟光 SAC:S0570523040001 ...

证券研究报告 美国财政扩张超预期，金价或偏强 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 25 日│中国内地 行业周报（第二十一周） 本周观点：美国财政扩张超预期，金价或延续偏强 上周美国众议院通过"美丽大法案"，该法案中的美国财政扩张再超市场预 期，叠加特朗普称建议对欧盟加征 50%关税，多重利多下，金价表现强势， 展望后市，市场对美国债务及关税扰动担忧仍在，我们预期金价短期或仍偏 强；工业金属方面，铜、铝需求在中美关税扰动缓和下表表现强势，但从中 期来看，下游需求或存在一定走弱预期，预期工业金属价格短期偏强，中期 或以震荡为主。 重点公司及动态 关税博弈、美国债务财政扩张扰动，黄金仍有上行空间，建议配置行业龙头 山金国际。 基础材料 子行业观点 1）基本金属：供需基本面短期偏强，中期价格或震荡；2）贵金属：美国 财政担忧或继续推动投资者去美元、配黄金。 风险提示：经济形势不及预期、政策调整、需求低迷、价格波动等。 | 有色金属 | 增持 (维持) | | --- | --- | | 基本金属及加工 | 增持 (维持) | | 研究员 | 李斌 | | SAC No. S0570517050001 | libin@ht ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 36.16 [6][7]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Ruipuhua, has established a comprehensive layout in pet medicine, including vaccines, supply chains, and hospitals, making it a rare investment target in the domestic pet medical sector [1][2]. - The domestic pet medical market is projected to grow significantly, with a market size of approximately RMB 841 billion by 2024, driven by factors such as pet aging and increasing consumer awareness [2][17]. - The company has shown strong performance in its main business areas, particularly in poultry vaccines and raw materials, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts [3][4]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ruipuhua with an updated target price of RMB 36.16, reflecting a positive outlook on the company's growth potential [6][4]. Company Overview - Ruipuhua is positioned as a leader in the domestic poultry vaccine market and is expanding its footprint in the pet medical sector through strategic acquisitions and product launches [11][36]. - The company has a comprehensive product range in pet medicine, including vaccines and health products, and has made significant investments in supply chain and hospital networks [36][37]. Financial Performance - The company is expected to achieve net profits of RMB 5.26 billion, RMB 6.18 billion, and RMB 7.12 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting significant growth [4][5]. - Revenue growth is anticipated to be driven by the poultry vaccine business and the rapid expansion of the pet medical segment, with a projected revenue of RMB 3.85 billion in 2025 [5][70]. Market Dynamics - The pet medical market is characterized by a fragmented competitive landscape, with opportunities for consolidation and growth as consumer demand increases [2][43]. - The aging pet population and the shift towards domestic products are expected to further enhance market growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 16% for the pet medical sector from 2019 to 2024 [17][23].