营收稳健增长，不良走势平稳 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 30 日│中国内地 | 区域性银行 | 苏农银行 24 年营收、PPOP、归母净利润同比+3.2%、+2.4%、+11.6%， 与业绩快报一致。25Q1 营收、PPOP、归母净利润分别同比+3.3%、+4.4%、 +6.2%，利润增速下滑主要因拨备反哺力度减轻。24 年拟每股分红 0.18 元， 分红比例为 16.98%（23 年：18.62%），股息率为 3.44%（25/04/29），此 外以资本公积向全体股东每 10 股转增 1 股。公司经营稳健，维持买入评级。 信贷增长放缓，零售有所回暖 证券研究报告 苏农银行 (603323 CH) 负债成本优化，其他非息波动 24 年净息差 1.55%，较 24H1+2bp，较 23 年-19bp。其中贷款收益率、存 款成本率分别较 23 年-43bp、-10bp。测算 25Q1 净息差较 24 年下行 6bp， 其中生息资产收益率、计息负债成本率分别-28bp、-23bp，随定期存款集中 到期重定价，预计负债成 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 10.70 RMB [8][9]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 2.947 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.20%, but reported a net loss of 199 million RMB, a decrease of 90.00% year-on-year. The performance was below previous expectations due to slower recovery in downstream demand and increased provisions for long-term equity investment impairment and bad debts [1]. - The company is progressing well in its SaaS transformation, with an annual recurring revenue (ARR) of 523 million RMB in 2024, up 25.1% year-on-year. The total number of enterprise customers exceeded 80,000, with an average renewal rate of over 90% [2]. - The company is enhancing its platform strategy, with hotel information management and payment system businesses growing by 14.55% and 8.68% year-on-year, respectively. The expansion into overseas markets is accelerating, with significant contracts signed with major hotel groups [2]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 34.87%, a decrease of 2.85 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased amortization of intangible assets. However, the company improved its expense control, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios decreasing significantly [3]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 592 million RMB, down 6.20% year-on-year, but a net profit of 21.11 million RMB, an increase of 85.36% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in profitability [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for 2024 was 2.947 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 7.20%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 199 million RMB, down 90.00% year-on-year. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 0.04, 0.06, and 0.08 RMB, respectively [1][5][7]. - The company’s operating cash flow improved to 67.13 million RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.79% [3]. Business Development - The company is focusing on SaaS, platformization, and globalization, with significant growth in its SaaS business and a strong customer base in the hotel industry [2]. - The company has established a comprehensive platform integrating various management systems and is leveraging AI for product upgrades, enhancing its competitive edge [3]. Valuation and Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is set at 3.273 billion, 3.676 billion, and 4.196 billion RMB, respectively, with a downward adjustment of 15% and 22% for 2025 and 2026 [5][7]. - The target price of 10.70 RMB corresponds to a price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 8.9x for 2025, reflecting the company's successful SaaS transition and increasing subscription revenue [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 24.42 RMB [6][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.462 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.08%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 325 million RMB, up 2.36% year-on-year. However, the net profit fell short of expectations due to slower-than-expected industry recovery and intensified competition [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 569 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 3.80%, but the net profit decreased by 11.78% year-on-year, primarily due to increased competition affecting profitability [1][2]. - The company is optimistic about its high-end product development and global expansion, which are expected to provide long-term growth opportunities [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 23.68%, down 2.78 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 13.21%, down 0.48 percentage points year-on-year. The decline in gross margin was attributed to increased competition and a decrease in the proportion of high-margin overseas revenue [2]. - In 2024, domestic revenue was 2.107 billion RMB, up 31.34% year-on-year, while overseas revenue was 342 million RMB, down 51.42% year-on-year due to reduced market demand in the context of overseas inflation [2]. Product Performance - Significant revenue growth was observed in large machining centers and vertical CNC machine tools, with revenues of 1.08 billion RMB and 746 million RMB, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 12.64% and 15.44% [3]. - The company has developed humanoid robot CNC lathes targeting key components such as harmonic reducers and hollow cup motors, which are expected to open new growth avenues as the industry shows signs of recovery [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has revised down its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 23% and 24%, respectively, to 364 million RMB and 441 million RMB, primarily due to adjustments in overseas revenue structure and short-term competition in the machine tool industry [5]. - The target price of 24.42 RMB corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 22 times for 2025, reflecting the company's positioning in the humanoid robot lathe market and the anticipated benefits from the industry's growth [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 51.77 [8][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant year-on-year increase in net profit of 45.94% for Q1 2025, driven by operational leverage and internal adjustments [1]. - Revenue for Q1 2025 reached RMB 441 million, reflecting a 15.40% year-on-year growth, while cash received from sales increased by 23.42% [1][2]. - The company has successfully optimized its organizational structure and flow strategies, leading to improved cash collection and revenue growth, particularly in emerging markets [2]. - The number of paid AI members has surpassed 11,000, indicating a 22% increase from the previous year, showcasing the successful commercialization of AI products [3]. - Gross margin improved to 80.49%, with a notable reduction in expense ratios due to revenue growth and scale effects [4]. - The company forecasts net profits of RMB 5.5 billion, RMB 6.5 billion, and RMB 7.5 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a projected PE ratio of 30 for 2025 [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was RMB 441 million, up 15.40% year-on-year, with net profit at RMB 112 million, a 45.94% increase [1]. - Cash received from sales reached RMB 433 million, a 23.42% increase year-on-year [2]. - Gross margin for Q1 2025 was 80.49%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points [4]. AI Product Development - The number of paid AI members reached 28,118, a 2.6% increase from the end of 2024, with over 11,000 members purchasing AI products [3]. Profitability and Valuation - The company maintains a target price of RMB 51.77, with a PE ratio of 30 for 2025, reflecting confidence in AI product revenue generation [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" for both A and H shares, maintaining the previous rating [9]. Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year decline in net profit and operating income of 4.0% and 3.2% respectively for Q1 2025, with annualized ROE and ROA decreasing by 1.00 percentage points and 0.09 percentage points to 9.06% and 0.68% respectively. Despite short-term pricing pressure, credit issuance remains stable, and asset quality is steady, reinforcing the company's leading position [2][3]. Summary by Sections Credit and Asset Quality - As of March 2025, total assets, loans, and deposits grew by 8.3%, 8.5%, and 4.0% respectively compared to the end of 2024. The company issued new loans totaling 1.31 trillion yuan, with corporate loans accounting for 85% and retail loans for 14% [3]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio and provision coverage ratio stood at 1.33% and 216% respectively, showing stability compared to the end of 2024. The retail financial NPL ratio saw a slight increase, but the pace of growth has slowed [5]. Income and Expenses - Non-interest income decreased by 4.2% year-on-year in Q1 2025, primarily due to a slowdown in other non-interest income, which fell by 10.4% due to market fluctuations. Fee income accounted for 18.3% of total revenue, with the company focusing on growth in clearing, settlement, payment, and custody services [4]. - The cost-to-income ratio increased by 1.2 percentage points to 22.0%, maintaining a favorable level [4]. Profitability and Valuation - The company forecasts EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.03, 1.06, and 1.10 yuan respectively, with a target price of 8.76 yuan for A shares and 6.71 HKD for H shares, reflecting a target PB of 0.80 and 0.57 respectively [6]. - The projected PB for 2025 is 0.66 for A shares and 0.46 for H shares, with the company expected to enjoy a valuation premium due to its leading position [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is reported at 56.79 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 20.5%, primarily due to high gold prices impacting consumer demand for gold jewelry, which saw a consumption decline of 24.69% [2][4] - The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue of 17.52 billion RMB, down 31.6% year-on-year, with net profit at 613 million RMB, a decrease of 23.6% [1][2] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.72 RMB per share, with a payout ratio of 46%, and intends to arrange a mid-year dividend for 2025 [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's gross margin was 8.9%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, driven by rising gold prices [2] - Revenue breakdown: Jewelry products revenue decreased by 19.3% to 46.91 billion RMB, while gold trading products revenue fell by 26.4% to 9.38 billion RMB [2] - The company reported a net profit of 1.95 billion RMB for 2024, down 11.9% year-on-year [1][6] Operational Strategy - As of March 2025, the company has 5,541 retail outlets, with a net decrease of 156 in 2024 and 297 in Q1 2025, reflecting a strategic channel optimization to enhance overall quality and operational efficiency [3] - The company is focusing on developing themed stores and upgrading traditional outlets to adapt to new consumer scenarios, while also promoting online and offline integration [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been reduced by 27% and 28% to 1.65 billion RMB and 1.85 billion RMB, respectively [4] - The target price for the company is set at 63 RMB, based on a 20x PE ratio for 2025 [4][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company with a target price of 37.00 RMB [5][6]. Core Views - The company reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 59.079 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year increase of 3.15% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 6.83%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.981 billion RMB, up 11.23% year-over-year and down 8.35% quarter-over-quarter. The non-recurring net profit was 0.862 billion RMB, showing a significant year-over-year increase of 253.91% [1][2]. - The improvement in gross margin is attributed to low raw material prices and the company's ongoing efforts in channel expansion and product innovation. The report expresses optimism about the company's earnings elasticity in 2025 [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin improvement of 1.69 percentage points year-over-year and 0.18 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. The kitchen food segment saw sales growth due to deepening sales channels, while the feed and oil technology segments maintained sales growth with stable prices [2][3]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 4.011 billion RMB, 6.677 billion RMB, and 8.411 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 60.30%, 66.47%, and 25.98% [4][9]. Market Outlook - The report highlights the company's focus on operational improvements and product innovation, including the introduction of new products like rice oil and germ oil. It anticipates that the combination of low raw material costs and improved downstream demand will enhance the company's earnings elasticity in 2025 [3][4]. Valuation - The report maintains the earnings forecast and estimates the company's EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 0.74 RMB, 1.23 RMB, and 1.55 RMB, respectively. The target price is set at 37.00 RMB, based on a 50x PE ratio for 2025 [4][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 20.53 and RMB 34.35, maintaining the "Buy" rating [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of RMB 3.772 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 25.43% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 24.28%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -RMB 356 million, showing an improvement from -RMB 1.434 billion in Q4 2024, with a year-over-year increase of 18.93% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 75.18%. The company is expected to gain significant earnings elasticity when the industry recovers due to its ongoing expansion in upstream quality resources and midstream smelting capacity [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's Q1 2025 gross margin was 12.95%, an increase of 0.81 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. The average spot price of lithium carbonate was RMB 75,800 per ton, unchanged quarter-over-quarter, while the average price of spodumene (CIF) increased by 5.8% to USD 834.4 per ton. The cost of the Mt Marion mine, in which the company holds a 50% stake, decreased significantly by 34.2% quarter-over-quarter, supporting the recovery of the company's gross margin [2][3]. Cost and Pricing Outlook - The cost of lithium mining continues to decline, with the FOB costs for Mt Marion and Wodgina mines dropping by 34.2% and 23.5% respectively in Q1 2025. This trend indicates potential further decreases in lithium prices, which may remain under pressure due to a long-term oversupply in the market. The cost reductions at Mt Marion are beneficial for the company's mining profitability and may provide some support for its performance [3][4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for the company has been adjusted downward due to the declining cost curve in the lithium industry. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are RMB 514 million, RMB 1.539 billion, and RMB 3.339 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.25, RMB 0.76, and RMB 1.66. The expected BPS for the same period is RMB 20.82, RMB 21.43, and RMB 22.94. The company is assigned a 2025 PB of 1.65 times, with a target price based on the April 29, 2025 exchange rate [4][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7][4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 79.118 billion RMB in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and a net profit of 5.487 billion RMB, up 15.09% year-on-year, which aligns with expectations [1] - The growth is attributed to the effective utilization of the old-for-new policy in the domestic market, product innovation, and channel expansion in overseas markets, as well as deepening digital reforms that enhance operational efficiency [1][2] - The company is expected to continue consolidating its competitive advantages and steadily advance its strategic development [1] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Growth - In Q1 2025, the domestic market revenue grew by 7.8%, with the Casarte brand exceeding 20% growth. The introduction of the POP digital inventory model significantly boosted retail sales [2] - Overseas revenue increased by 12.6%, with notable growth in North America and emerging markets, where sales in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East and Africa grew by over 30%, 20%, and 50% respectively [2] Cost Management and Profitability - The company's gross margin was 25.4%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, driven by digital transformation across procurement, R&D, and manufacturing [3] - The expense ratio decreased by 4.2 percentage points year-on-year, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios at 9.6%, 3.1%, and 4.2% respectively [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 21.115 billion RMB, 23.258 billion RMB, and 25.351 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.25, 2.48, and 2.70 RMB [4][6] - The target price for A-shares is set at 33.75 RMB, while the target price for H-shares is 31.31 HKD, reflecting a premium based on historical averages [4][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 5.582 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 4.86%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 566 million RMB, down 37.95% year-on-year [1][2]. - The copper phase II project commenced production at the end of 2024, which is expected to open up future growth opportunities for the company [1][4]. - The report predicts that iron ore prices may continue to be under pressure in 2025 due to an expected increase in global iron ore production capacity [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported iron ore production and sales of 9.005 million tons and 9.324 million tons, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 60.16% and 32.54% [2]. - The average price of 62% iron ore fell to 109.44 USD/ton, a decrease of 10.31 USD/ton year-on-year, impacting profitability [2]. - The company's net profit for Q4 2024 was a loss of 11.43 million RMB, a significant decline compared to the previous year [1]. Future Projections - The company plans to increase its iron ore production and sales to 10 million tons in 2025 [3]. - The copper production and sales are expected to rise to 32,000 tons and 29,000 tons, respectively, in 2025 [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report adjusts the company's EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1.26, 1.44, and 1.79 RMB, reflecting a downward revision of 12% and 13% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [5]. - The target price is set at 17.59 RMB, based on a PE ratio of 14.0X for 2025, which is an increase from the previous target price of 16.55 RMB [5][9].