香港中华煤气 (3 HK) 2025 年秋季策略会速递— 延伸业务挖潜，气源结构优化 证券研究报告 | 华泰研究 | | 动态点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 8 月 28 日│中国香港 | 燃气及分销 | 目标价(港币): | 7.63 | 8 月 27 日香港中华煤气出席了我们组织的 2025 年秋季策略会，会上公司重 点围绕延伸业务、气源结构、香港市场优势及内地业务展开交流。延伸业务 引入外部投资强化 B2C 运营与数字化建设，香港主导利润贡献，内地潜力 待挖掘；内地城市燃气气源以三桶油为主，计划提升非常规/现货气占比以 优化成本；香港煤气呈垄断格局且气价成本可转嫁，内地工商业用气增长承 压但延伸业务空间大。维持"买入"评级。 延伸业务引入战略投资，明确"先扩客再跨域"路径 管理层表示，为强化延伸业务（燃气灶具、保险等 B2C 业务）运营能力， 引入元禾辰坤（苏州国资控股）与方圆资本，前者提供地方资源协同，后者 凭借消费品领域经验助力数字化（如物联网 LP 平台）与售后服务完善。目 前该业务利润高度依赖香港（ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 22.50 [1]. Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2025 shows a revenue of RMB 2.13 billion and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 260 million, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 18.6% and 26.6% respectively. The second quarter also saw a revenue of RMB 1.03 billion, down 9.1% year-on-year [5][6]. - The company is focusing on channel optimization and product innovation, particularly enhancing the coverage of its main brand in non-core markets and increasing the proportion of low-salt new products. This is expected to improve operations in the second half of the year [5][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, the projected revenue is RMB 5.519 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 7.39%. However, for 2025, a decline of 5.62% is expected, followed by a recovery in 2026 and 2027 with growth rates of 10.30% and 9.34% respectively [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be RMB 893.07 million in 2024, decreasing to RMB 702.96 million in 2025, but expected to rebound to RMB 880.86 million in 2026 and RMB 1 billion in 2027 [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be RMB 1.15 in 2024, dropping to RMB 0.90 in 2025, and then recovering to RMB 1.13 and RMB 1.32 in 2026 and 2027 respectively [4]. Market and Competitive Position - The company is currently undergoing a channel reform, which is in a transitional phase. The focus remains on optimizing channels and adjusting pricing strategies to restore growth [7][8]. - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 39.0%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower raw material costs. However, increased sales and management expenses have pressured short-term profitability [7][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 15.12 [1][2] Core Views - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at RMB 1.32 billion, down 17.1% year-on-year, and net profit at RMB 170 million, down 30.8% year-on-year. The second quarter saw even steeper declines, with revenue at RMB 490 million, down 29.9% year-on-year [6][7] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in the second half of 2025 as the impact of negative public sentiment diminishes, and the company focuses on product optimization and upgrades to drive revenue and profit growth [6][9] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company experienced a significant drop in revenue and net profit, with Q2 figures showing a revenue of RMB 490 million and a net profit of RMB 10 million, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 29.9% and 86.7% respectively [6][7] - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 36.6%, a slight increase of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, but Q2 gross margin fell to 32.6%, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year due to reduced scale effects despite lower raw material costs [8][9] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025 have been adjusted downwards to RMB 2.788 billion, a decrease of 16.23% from previous estimates, with net profit forecasted at RMB 434.14 million, down 30.43% [11] - The report projects an EPS of RMB 0.42 for 2025, with a gradual increase to RMB 0.61 by 2027 [5][11] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company faced significant challenges in the first half of 2025, particularly in the soy sauce and vinegar segments, which saw revenues decline by 16.1% and 21.5% respectively due to increased competition and negative public sentiment [7][8] - Online sales were particularly affected, with a year-on-year decline of 29.2%, while offline sales decreased by 14.1% [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kevin Education with a target price of RMB 5.38 [6][10]. Core Views - Kevin Education's main business shows steady growth with a clear trend of improving profitability, supported by the empowerment of major shareholders, and is expected to turn profitable in 2025 [1][5]. - The company is expanding its K12 school operations and diversifying its educational services, including the introduction of unique quality education programs and extracurricular training [2][3]. - The operational leverage effect is becoming evident as the student enrollment scale increases, leading to significant profit contributions with improved operational efficiency [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, Kevin Education achieved revenue of RMB 171 million, a year-on-year increase of 12.51%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 735,000, up 107.44% year-on-year [1]. - For Q2 2025, revenue reached RMB 80.55 million, with a net profit of RMB 266,700, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.21% and 104.21%, respectively [1]. Business Expansion - Under the "dual-track" strategy, Kevin Education is expanding its K12 school operations, with two schools enhancing their international education offerings and introducing domestic preparatory classes [2]. - The company is also promoting its unique quality education courses outside of school settings, including sports, arts, technology training, and camp education [2]. Operational Efficiency - The report highlights a decrease in the combined sales, management, and R&D expense ratios by 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved operational efficiency [4]. - The company plans to optimize its asset structure and increase asset utilization to enhance profitability further [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is RMB 25.16 million, RMB 46.65 million, and RMB 56.32 million, respectively [5][10]. - The report maintains a DCF-based target price of RMB 5.38, with a WACC of 9.36% and a perpetual growth rate of 2% [5][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 214 million RMB for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.92%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2 million RMB, down 93.84% year-on-year. The company faces significant pressure on product sales but may see acceleration in core urban renewal projects as their importance increases. The company is actively working on a second growth curve, and its transformation progress should be monitored in the long term [1][2] - The company's operational business has become a solid foundation for its performance, contributing 99.6% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, with rental income from real estate at 146 million RMB, up 5% year-on-year, and hotel income at 68 million RMB, up 1% year-on-year [2] - The core project "Yupin Luanshan" has made progress, with the main structure reaching eight floors by the end of August, and plans to open a marketing showroom and model room in September, with pre-sales expected within the year. The "Hualian Nanshan A District" project is still in the early stages, but recent government meetings on urban renewal may benefit its progress [3] - The company is actively investing in strategic emerging industries such as new energy, new materials, and new technologies. As of the first half of 2025, it has invested in Shenzhen Juneng, which holds eight patents related to lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide technologies. The company has completed a share buyback plan, repurchasing 0.57% of its shares for approximately 30 million RMB, enhancing shareholder equity [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to launch new projects as planned, positively impacting future performance. The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 80 million RMB, 90 million RMB, and 190 million RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.06, 0.07, and 0.13 RMB. The target price is set at 4.53 RMB, up from the previous 3.83 RMB, reflecting an increase in comparable company valuations [5][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 31.77 [1][5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 2.755 billion for H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 14.18%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of RMB 30.43 million, which aligns with the company's previous earnings forecast [1]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to delays in the settlement of certain installation services, but the company is expected to benefit from improved cash flow management and favorable real estate policies in first-tier cities [1][4]. - The company has seen a significant increase in overseas revenue, which grew by 30.75% year-on-year, while domestic revenue decreased by 19.95% [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved revenues of RMB 2.755 billion, with a Q2 revenue of RMB 1.549 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 16.02% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28.42% [1][2]. - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 30.37%, a slight decrease of 0.89 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company maintained a strict control over expenses, with a total expense ratio of 27.9% for H1 2025, down 0.05 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Market Outlook - The real estate market has shown signs of weakness, with sales and construction area declines, but recent policy changes in cities like Beijing may stimulate demand for building hardware [4]. - The company is actively expanding its market presence, having established nearly 20 overseas warehouses to enhance supply chain responsiveness [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are RMB 6.613 billion, RMB 7.126 billion, and RMB 7.857 billion, respectively, with net profits projected at RMB 194.63 million, RMB 251.71 million, and RMB 314.36 million [5][11]. - The target price of RMB 31.77 is based on a price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 1.7x for 2025, reflecting the company's strong correlation with the real estate sector [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" [1][4]. Core Views - The company experienced a slight decline in revenue and a significant drop in net profit in the first half of 2025, primarily due to the expiration of specific operational assets related to Amazon Cloud and adjustments in client strategies [1][2]. - New data center projects in Tianjin and Shanghai are progressing well, and the company is actively investing in intelligent computing centers in Inner Mongolia, which are expected to contribute positively to future earnings [1][3]. - The company is embracing opportunities in the AI sector, having signed a strategic cooperation agreement to enhance its capabilities in AI applications [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.716 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 5.15%, and a net profit of 115 million RMB, down 57.01% [1]. - The data center business generated revenue of 1.071 billion RMB, a decline of 2.08%, while the cloud computing segment reported revenue of 2.57 billion RMB, down 7.67% [2]. Profitability - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 15.16%, a decrease of 1.50 percentage points, attributed to the reduction in cloud computing revenue and increased depreciation expenses [3]. - Future profitability is expected to improve as new data center projects are delivered and operational [3]. Valuation and Forecast - The estimated EBITDA for 2025 to 2027 is projected to be 1.415 billion, 1.648 billion, and 1.882 billion RMB, respectively [4]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 18.87 RMB, based on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 25.5x for 2025 [4].

证券研究报告 合盛硅业 (603260 CH) Q2 盈利承压下行，工业硅景气待复苏 2025 年 8 月 28 日│中国内地 化学原料 合盛硅业于 8 月 27 日发布 25H1 半年度报告：上半年实现营收 97.8 亿元， 同比-26%，归母净利润-4.0 亿元，同比-141%，扣非净利润-5.3 亿元，同 比-159%；其中 Q2 实现归母净利润-6.7 亿元，同比-246%/环比-353%，扣 Q2 工业硅量价承压较大，硅橡胶销量环比减少 工业硅方面，受下游需求端的多晶硅/有机硅开工下降以及行业高库存影响， Q2 销量同比-47%/环比-17%至 21.5 万吨，营收同比-66%/环比-35%至 15.7 亿元，H1 工业硅毛利率同比-15pct 至 14.6%。有机硅方面，二季度行业整 体实施减产稳价，Q2 硅橡胶销量同比-15%/环比-6%至 16.3 万吨，硅橡胶 营收同比-23%/环比-11%至 18.3 亿元，原料工业硅、氯甲烷价格下跌支撑 毛利率维稳，H1 有机硅毛利率同比+1pct 至 17.4%。公司 25H1 计提存货 减值损失 1.68 亿元。子公司西部合盛/中部合盛/东部合盛/新 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Coking Coal is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of RMB 7.60 [2][9]. Core Views - The report indicates that the company is expected to see improvements in the second half of 2025 due to cost reductions and a turnaround in its power generation segment. The recent rebound in coking coal prices and effective cost control measures are anticipated to enhance profitability [6][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 18.053 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 16.3%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.014 billion, down 48.42%. The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of RMB 9.028 billion, a decline of 18.06%, with a net profit of RMB 333 million, down 67.22% [6][7]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was maintained at 29.2%, reflecting ongoing cost control efforts despite a 10% decline in industry price indices [6]. Price and Cost Outlook - The average price of coking coal has stabilized at RMB 1,480 per ton, with expectations for continued price support in the upcoming quarters. The report projects a gradual recovery in profitability as the low point of earnings is believed to have passed [6][9]. Resource Expansion and Long-term Growth - The company is actively expanding its resource reserves, including coal and associated minerals. A recent acquisition of exploration rights for coal and bauxite resources is expected to significantly enhance the company's sustainable development capabilities [8][9]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report has adjusted the earnings forecasts for 2025-2027, with net profit estimates raised by 13.7%, 16.2%, and 10.0% respectively, reflecting improved cost control and higher coal prices. The target price has been revised to RMB 7.60, corresponding to a PE ratio of 14.4x for 2025E [9][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.352 billion RMB for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.78%, but a net profit of 64.12 million RMB, down 46.47% year-on-year, primarily due to declining magnesium prices affecting the profitability of magnesium alloys [1][2]. - The current magnesium prices are seen as favorable for promoting magnesium applications, and the company is expected to rebound as it collaborates closely with industry giants [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.352 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 6.78%. The net profit was 64.12 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 46.47% due to lower magnesium prices impacting the gross margin of magnesium alloys [1][2]. - Q2 2025 revenue was 2.319 billion RMB, up 4.85% year-on-year and 14.08% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 35.94 million RMB, down 39.15% year-on-year but up 27.52% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Market Outlook - The magnesium price fluctuated between 15,000 and 17,000 RMB per ton in the first half of 2025, with the magnesium-aluminum ratio dropping to a historical low of 0.8-0.9, enhancing the cost-effectiveness of magnesium materials and supporting the expansion of downstream applications [2][3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively expanding its applications in the magnesium sector, particularly in electric bicycles, driven by new national standards. It has established partnerships with major clients such as ZF, Geely, and others, focusing on large magnesium castings for various applications [3][4]. - The company has formed specialized teams to explore markets related to "low-altitude economy," "humanoid robots," and "electric bicycles," conducting market research and developing new products [3]. Valuation - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) of 0.42, 0.67, and 0.94 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The target price is set at 17.31 RMB, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 41.2x for 2025 [4][10].