Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the public utilities and gas distribution sectors [5] Core Insights - The report predicts a moderate growth in China's manufacturing natural gas demand from 2026 to 2028, with an average annual growth rate of 2%. The demand will be characterized by significant structural differentiation, with emerging manufacturing sectors and automotive manufacturing showing the highest growth rates, while traditional high-energy-consuming industries will see a decline [10][20] - The transformation of the city gas industry from "resource distribution" to "comprehensive energy services" is highlighted as a key opportunity, driven by the optimization of customer structure, expansion of value-added services, and improved pricing efficiency [24][25] Summary by Sections Demand Side: Structural Differentiation as the Core Theme - In 2022, the manufacturing sector's natural gas consumption was 155 billion cubic meters, accounting for 8.56% of total energy consumption. The demand is expected to experience a "slow climb - deceleration - stabilization" process from 2023 to 2025, with traditional industries facing pressure while emerging industries continue to grow [2][10] - The report forecasts that from 2026 to 2028, the main sources of growth will be emerging manufacturing sectors such as integrated circuits and biomedicine, with an average annual growth rate of 4.8%, and automotive manufacturing, particularly in new energy vehicles, with a growth rate of 7.8% [21][22] City Gas Industry: Three Opportunities Against Three Challenges - The recovery of manufacturing natural gas demand will be a critical juncture for the city gas industry to shift from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement." This shift is expected to alleviate short-term profit pressures and support business structure reconstruction and core competitiveness enhancement [3][11] - Opportunities include an increase in high-value customers from emerging manufacturing sectors, which are expected to improve gas sales gross margins by 2-3 percentage points by 2028. Challenges include the loss of traditional customer demand, competition from alternative energy sources, and intensified regional competition [3][11] Differentiation from Market Views - The report emphasizes the quantification of demand differentiation trends across various sectors, highlighting the dual drivers of "policy support + industrial expansion" rather than a singular focus on environmental pressures. It also clarifies the boundaries and pace of alternative energy impacts on natural gas demand, indicating that the substitution effect from emerging industries is relatively weak [4][14] Investment Focus - The investment focus is on capturing structural dividends and realizing transformation capabilities, with a particular emphasis on three types of companies: national city gas leaders (Kunlun Energy, China Gas), regional leaders (Shenzhen Gas, Fuan Energy), and energy service platform companies (Xinao Gas) [12][24]

证券研究报告 港股通 中国重汽 (3808 HK) 聚力开门红，出口拓宽成长路 2026 年 1 月 29 日│中国香港 商用车 进入 26 年，公司全力冲刺"开门红"，为新一年的销量增长打下坚实基础。 展望 26 年，行业端受益于两新政策快速衔接（内销）和亚非拉地区重点突 破（出口），我们看好重卡行业保持高景气度。公司作为头部重卡企业或率 先受益，维持"买入"评级。 25 年交出亮眼答卷，26 年"开局即冲刺" 王立献* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525020001 wanglixian@htsc.com +(86) 755 8249 2388 2025 年，中国重汽集团整车销量突破 44 万辆，其中重卡销量 30 万辆，不 仅连续 4 年销量稳居国内重卡行业第一公司，更成为全球重卡销量龙头。我 们认为公司取得亮眼成绩，主要原因系：①强大生产制造能力支撑；②国内 市场充分受益于两新政策范围扩大（扩大至国四）和快速衔接；③海外市场 的持续耕耘（12 月与哈萨克斯坦卡拉干达州州长举行会见并签约）。进入 26 年，集团召开"新征程·谋新篇·势夺首季开门红"的生产经营大会。 我们认为该会议为公司 Q1 开门 ...

证券研究报告 新东方 (9901 HK/EDU US) 新东方公布 2QFY26 业绩（以下简称 Q2）：总收入 11.91 亿美元， yoy+14.7%，增速超指引上限（12%）；调整后经营利润 0.89 亿美元，对 应 OPM 为 7.5%，同比提升 4.7pct，大幅超过彭博一致预期（yoy+2pct）。 公司指引 3QFY26/FY26 全年美元口径总收入同比增长 11~14%/8~12%（彭 博一致预期 12%/10%），反映教学质量提升、需求回归和汇率顺风的影响。 我们认为公司核心 K12 业务增长稳健，降本增效及多元化发展下集团利润 率有望逐步改善，长期有望为股东创造持续稳定的回报，维持"买入"。 K12 业务兑现秋季提速，经营利润率提升超预期 分业务看，随着秋季 K12 行业回归正价竞争，头部品牌机构增长环比改善， 教育属性新业务收入在 Q2 同比增速加速至 21.6%；大学生及成人教育收入 同比增长 12.8%（Q1:14.4%），增速稳健；留学考培收入同比增长 4.1%， 留学咨询收入同比下降约 3%，逆境中展现较强韧性。得益于运营杠杆的优 化、成本控制措施的逐步落地，以及东方甄选的盈利贡 ...

证券研究报告 新东方 (9901 HK/EDU US) 低基数下利润有望持续释放 华泰研究 中报点评 2026 年 1 月 29 日│中国香港/美国 K12 教育 优化组织架构，有望助力运营提效 据业绩会，公司计划在 2026 财年结束前（即 2026 年 5 月底前），将其留 学咨询和留学考培业务正式合并。我们认为在出国留学行业进入存量竞争的 大背景下，合并两大板块有望精简服务链条，强化规模效应，提升运营效率， 同时通过合并管理团队、教师、营销及行政人员等降低成本。 维持"买入"评级 考虑到 K12 收入提速、降本增效及汇率顺风的影响，我们略微上调 FY26/27/28 non-GAAP 归母净利润至 5.78/6.81/7.56 亿美元（前值： 5.62/6.48/7.07 亿美元）。可比公司彭博一致预期均值 15.47x FY26 PE， 考虑到公司核心业务盈利稳健性及股东回报行业领先，给予公司 18x FY26 PE，得到目标价 65.43 美元/51.39 港元（前值：67.31 美元/52.66 港元，基 于集团整体 non-GAAP 归母净利润 19.06x FY26 PE），维持"买入"。 风 ...

证券研究报告 特变电工 (600089 CH) 多业务板块景气共振开启价值重估 2026 年 1 月 29 日│中国内地 首次覆盖特变电工公司并给予"买入"评级，目标价 33.31 元，对应 26 年 PE 22X。我们认为公司 26 年多业务板块步入景气上行阶段，输变电业务有 望充分受益于全球高压设备紧缺外溢实现加速出海；黄金业务量价齐升；煤 炭、多晶硅拐点齐现，我们预计公司 26-27 年具备较强的向上盈利弹性。 输变电：出海有望加速突破，国内主网周期向上 公司是国内民营主变龙头，是国内少数具备"高压电缆+附件+施工"一体 化集成服务能力的企业。海外方面，全球高压电力设备持续紧缺，AIDC 进 一步放大供需缺口，国内高压电力设备企业拥抱出海新时代。公司海外订单 高速增长，23 年、24 年、25H1 公司国际市场产品分别实现签约超 7 亿美 元、超 12 亿美元、11.20 亿美元，25H1 同比增长 65.9%；截至 25H1，公 司输变电国际成套项目在手合同金额超 50 亿美元。25 年 8 月斩获沙特约 164 亿元框架标。伴随海外高盈利市场收入占比提升与供给紧张下产品价格 有望进一步推升，公司变压 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on TBEA Co., Ltd. with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of 33.31 RMB, corresponding to a 2026 PE of 22X [1][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that TBEA's multiple business segments are entering a phase of upward momentum, with the power transmission and transformation business expected to benefit from global high-pressure equipment shortages, leading to accelerated international expansion [1][17]. - The gold business is experiencing simultaneous increases in both volume and price, while coal and polysilicon sectors are also showing signs of recovery, indicating strong upward profit elasticity for the company in 2026-2027 [1][17]. - The report emphasizes that TBEA is a leading player in the energy equipment sector, with a diversified portfolio that includes power transmission, energy, new energy, and new materials, positioning the company for robust growth [23]. Summary by Sections Power Transmission and Transformation - TBEA is a leading private transformer manufacturer in China, with integrated capabilities in high-voltage cables, accessories, and construction services. The company is witnessing rapid growth in overseas orders, with international market product contracts exceeding 7 billion USD in 2023 and 12 billion USD in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 65.9% in the first half of 2025 [2][18]. - The domestic market is also expected to see a significant increase in grid investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with TBEA's market share in main grid tenders continuing to rise, providing a solid foundation for future growth [2][18]. Resource Products - The gold mining segment is currently in a rapid capacity release phase, with projected production increasing from 2.2 tons in 2024 to 3.6 tons in 2027, potentially generating revenues of 19.8 billion RMB to 46.4 billion RMB during this period, with year-on-year growth rates of 65.9% to 29.2% [3][19]. - TBEA's coal business benefits from low-cost open-pit mining resources, with a production cost of only 177 RMB per ton in the first half of 2025. The company is also developing a coal-to-gas project that is expected to enhance profitability [3][20]. - The polysilicon segment is anticipated to achieve significant cost reductions, with cash costs expected to decrease by approximately 18% in the first half of 2025, allowing the company to return to cash flow breakeven [4][21]. Market Perspective - The report notes a divergence from market perceptions, indicating that TBEA's diverse business segments are now in an upward cycle, contrary to the prevailing view that the company is being dragged down by its renewable energy and coal businesses [5][22]. - The company is positioned to leverage its strengths in various sectors, including power transmission, coal-to-gas, gold production, and polysilicon, to drive future growth and profitability [5][22].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 33.34 [1]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 240 to 290 million in 2025, marking a turnaround from losses in the previous year. 2025 is viewed as a critical year for the company's strategic reform, focusing on core brands, brand building, online presence, and efficiency [1][6]. - The company has successfully developed three major products that have generated over RMB 100 million in sales each, demonstrating the effectiveness of its strategy combining category breakthroughs, major product cultivation, and marketing innovation [1][8]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, now projecting revenues of RMB 6.407 billion, RMB 7.379 billion, and RMB 8.219 billion respectively, reflecting increases of 12.84%, 15.16%, and 11.38% [10]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to have a net profit of RMB 273.22 million in 2025, with an expected EPS of RMB 0.41. This is a significant recovery from a loss of RMB 833.09 million in 2024 [5][10]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from -12.45% in 2024 to 3.93% in 2025, indicating a positive trend in profitability [5][10]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from -17.32 in 2024 to 52.80 in 2025, reflecting a shift towards profitability [5][10]. Market Performance - The company's stock closed at RMB 21.46 as of January 28, with a market capitalization of RMB 14.426 billion. The stock has traded within a range of RMB 15.60 to RMB 28.92 over the past 52 weeks [2]. - The company has seen significant growth in its online sales channels, with notable performances on platforms like Douyin and Taobao, indicating strong brand momentum [7][9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" for both Utilities and Environmental sectors [8]. Core Insights - The carbon pricing market is undergoing a value reconstruction driven by both policy and market forces, with carbon prices expected to stabilize at 150-200 RMB/ton by 2030 [3][7]. - The green certificate market is currently underperforming, with prices at only 8% of the carbon price, indicating significant potential for value release [5][7]. - The upward pressure on electricity prices is anticipated from both carbon costs and green certificate revenues, with wholesale electricity prices projected to increase by 10% to 385 RMB/MWh [6]. Summary by Sections Carbon Price Trends - Carbon prices peaked at 98 RMB/ton by the end of 2024 but fell to a low of 38 RMB/ton in 2025 due to declining energy prices and increased renewable energy capacity [4]. - As of January 2026, carbon prices have stabilized at an average of 73 RMB/ton, supported by compliance demand from the power sector and the expansion of carbon markets in heavy industries [4]. Green Certificate Market - The average price of green certificates was 4.2 RMB per certificate in 2025 and increased to 5.5 RMB in 2026, still significantly lower than carbon prices [5]. - The low price of green certificates is attributed to the incomplete integration with the carbon market and insufficient market demand for green electricity [5]. Electricity Price Dynamics - Current carbon and green certificate prices are expected to push wholesale electricity prices from 350 RMB/MWh to 385 RMB/MWh, with further increases anticipated if carbon prices rise to 150-200 RMB/ton [6]. - If green certificate prices align with carbon prices, wholesale electricity prices could increase by 24-31% [6]. Future Outlook - The carbon market is expected to transition from "soft constraints" to "hard constraints" by 2027, with a gradual tightening of quotas and an increase in the proportion of paid allowances [7]. - Policies are being established to link the environmental value of green certificates with carbon reduction values, which may enhance the economic viability of green electricity [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 19.82 [1][6]. Core Insights - The company has successfully licensed its TL1A/IL-23p19 dual antibody SIM0709 to Boehringer Ingelheim for an upfront payment of €42 million and a total deal value of €1.058 billion, indicating strong validation of its innovative research and development capabilities [1]. - The company has seen recognition from major multinational corporations (MNCs) such as AbbVie, BI, and Ipsen for its innovative pipeline, with four projects launched overseas since 2025 [1]. - The global market for Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) is projected to reach USD 28 billion by 2028, with the TL1A target showing significant potential for treatment [2]. - SIM0709 is designed as a long-acting dual antibody with a potential dosing interval of three months, which could position it favorably in the competitive landscape for IBD treatments [3]. - Boehringer Ingelheim's established global development capabilities are expected to significantly support the global expansion of SIM0709, as it is a key player in the autoimmune disease treatment space [4]. - The company is advancing its innovative platforms, including TCE and ADC, with ongoing clinical trials and collaborations that are expected to yield data within the year [5]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts adjusted net profits of RMB 1.18 billion, RMB 1.40 billion, and RMB 1.52 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% [6][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates are projected at RMB 0.45, RMB 0.54, and RMB 0.59 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][12]. - The company maintains a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 33.19x for 2026, supporting the target price of HKD 19.82 [6][12].

Group 1: Macro Overview - The Federal Reserve maintained the policy interest rate at 3.5-3.75% during the January FOMC meeting, expressing a more optimistic outlook on the economy and job market [2] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both rose over 2.5%, with the Hang Seng Index surpassing 27,800 points, marking a new high since 2021 [2] - The report suggests that the first quarter may be a critical period for the Hong Kong stock market, with potential for further growth driven by liquidity, capital, and earnings [2] Group 2: Utility and Environmental Sector - The carbon pricing market is expected to stabilize after a decline in 2025, with projections indicating a price of 150-200 RMB/ton by 2030 [4] - Companies in the green electricity and environmental sectors, such as Longyuan Power and China Everbright Environment, are expected to benefit from the rising carbon costs and green certificate revenues [4] - Potential catalysts for growth include the introduction of policies linking green certificates to carbon quotas and the expansion of the carbon market [4] Group 3: Key Companies - Disco Corporation is positioned to benefit from the new AI chip generation, with a target price of 79,000 JPY, reflecting a 48x FY26E PE [5] - Xiansheng Pharmaceutical has successfully licensed its dual antibody SIM0709 to Boehringer Ingelheim, validating its innovation system and maintaining a "buy" rating [6] - Industrial Fulian expects a significant increase in net profit for 2025, with projections of 35.1-35.7 billion RMB, driven by the launch of new products and vertical integration advantages [8] - Anta Sports is set to acquire a 29.06% stake in PUMA for approximately 1.506 billion euros, enhancing its global brand portfolio and market presence [8] - Jingwei Hengrun anticipates a turnaround in profitability for 2025, projecting a net profit of 0.75-1.1 billion RMB, supported by scale effects [11] - Ruya Chen expects continued high growth in its self-owned brand business, with a projected net profit of 176-200 million RMB for 2025 [12] - Wancheng Group is expected to improve same-store performance and maintain a rapid store opening pace, supported by supply chain efficiency [13] - Ugreen Technology is focusing on AI and NAS integration, with a projected net profit of 653-733 million RMB for 2025 [14]