证券研究报告 宏观 图说日本宏观月报 | 2025 年 8 月 第十三期 概览：关税拖累出口，但整体看日本经济维持复苏态势：二季度日本 GDP 超预期增长，8 月制造业 PMI 超预期回升，消费增速回升，投资维持韧性， 而通胀边际降温。日央行加息预期小幅上行，美日利差收窄、日元升值；美 日达成关税协议等多重因素推动日股上涨，日经 225 创历史新高；市场对 日本财政可持续性的担忧加剧，推动日本 30 年期国债收益率升破 3.2%。 1. 实体经济走势：经济维持修复态势，通胀边际降温 日本 8 月制造业 PMI 上行，显示制造业周期延续修复。日本 8 月综合 PMI 升至 51.9，其中制造业 PMI 升至 49.9 接近荣枯线，服务业 PMI 则从 53.6 回落至 52.7，但仍维持在扩张区间。 劳工市场边际走强，消费增速回升。就业市场边际走强：6 月正式员工人数 上升，新增岗位空缺和申请人数之比回升至 2.2，名义工资增速回升至 2.2%， 失业率持平于 2.5%。居民收入推动消费增速有所回升。6 月日本零售总额 环比（季调后）回升至 0.9%，食品、服装和一般商品零售环比均明显回升， 同时消费者活动预期 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WuXi AppTec (2268 HK) with a target price of HKD 82.24 [7][12] Core Insights - The demand for ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugates) continues to grow, with the company experiencing significant order increases and steady capacity expansion [1][2] - WuXi AppTec is reaffirmed as a leader in the global ADC/XDC CRDMO (Contract Research, Development, and Manufacturing Organization) sector, with strong upward momentum in performance [1][7] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenues of RMB 2.701 billion, a year-on-year increase of 62%, and adjusted net profit of RMB 733 million, up nearly 70% [2] - The overseas revenue contribution reached 82%, an increase of 8 percentage points compared to 2024 [2] - The company's market share in the global ADC CRDMO market rose from 9.9% in 2022 to 22.2% in the first half of 2025 [2] Industry Dynamics - The ADC/XDC sector shows strong long-term growth potential, with four ADC products approved for market from Q4 2024 to H1 2025, and many more expected in the next 3-5 years [2] - There are approximately 2,200 candidate conjugated drugs globally, with 21% being new ADCs, indicating a robust pipeline for future development [2] Client Expansion and Orders - In H1 2025, the company signed 37 new iCMC contracts, a historical high for the period, with expectations for the total number of new projects in 2025 to exceed the previous two years [3] - The backlog of orders reached USD 1.329 billion, a year-on-year increase of 57.9%, with North America leading in new contracts [3] - The company added 64 new clients in H1 2025, maintaining active collaborations with 13 of the top 20 multinational corporations, contributing approximately 33% of revenue [3] Capacity Expansion and Operational Efficiency - WuXi AppTec is set to launch new production facilities in Wuxi and Singapore, with a planned capital expenditure exceeding RMB 7 billion by 2029 [4] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 36.1%, an increase of 4 percentage points year-on-year, with expectations for further improvement in 2025 [4] - The adjusted net profit margin for H1 2025 was 27.1%, reflecting a positive trend amid company growth [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is RMB 1.72 billion, RMB 2.37 billion, and RMB 2.80 billion, respectively, with a CAGR of 34% [5] - The target price is based on a PEG ratio of 1.59x, consistent with comparable company expectations [5][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 60.20 [1][5]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached RMB 891 million, a year-on-year increase of 8.28%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 119 million, up 2.22% year-on-year. The second quarter saw revenue of RMB 501 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.40% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28.27% [1]. - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in its main business through application expansion and sales transformation, with the humanoid robot product layout potentially creating a second growth curve [1]. - The servo system segment reported revenue of RMB 427 million, a year-on-year increase of 19.29%, while the PLC segment saw a significant growth of 44.09% year-on-year, indicating a successful expansion into the servo and PLC fields [2]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 38.78%, with a net margin of 13.94%. The company experienced a significant improvement in cash flow, with operating cash flow reaching RMB 50 million, a year-on-year increase of 115.87% [3]. - The humanoid business is being developed through subsidiaries focusing on core components and solutions, which is expected to drive revenue growth in this segment [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of RMB 891 million and a net profit of RMB 119 million, with Q2 figures showing a revenue of RMB 501 million and a net profit of RMB 63 million [1]. - The gross margin for the first half was 38.78%, and the net margin was 13.94% [3]. Business Segments - The servo system segment generated RMB 427 million in revenue, up 19.29% year-on-year, while the PLC segment saw a 44.09% increase in revenue [2]. - The humanoid robot business is being developed through various subsidiaries, focusing on core components and solutions [4]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The company achieved a gross margin of 38.78% and a net margin of 13.94% for the first half of 2025, with significant improvements in cash flow [3]. Future Outlook - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of RMB 271 million, RMB 339 million, and RMB 389 million respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.86, RMB 1.08, and RMB 1.24 [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 12.78 [1][5]. Core Views - The company has shown a steady increase in subscription ARR, with a year-on-year growth of 21.4% in 25H1, reaching RMB 5.42 billion [3]. - The company is advancing its globalization strategy, achieving significant progress in overseas business, particularly in the hospitality sector [2]. - The overall gross margin improved by 1.38 percentage points year-on-year, reaching 47.44% in 25H1, primarily due to the optimization of high-revenue business segments [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 25H1, the company reported revenue of RMB 1.25 billion, a decrease of 9.56% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 33.54 million, an increase of 35.67% year-on-year [1]. - The net profit margin for 25H1 was 3.59%, up by 0.97 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from improved gross margins [1]. Business Development - The company signed a new contract with Marriott Group in 25H1, marking a significant milestone in its international expansion efforts [2]. - The SaaS business has expanded its customer base significantly, with over 80,000 hotel stores and an average renewal rate exceeding 90% [3]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The company’s comprehensive gross margin increased to 47.44% in 25H1, with various business segments showing mixed performance in gross margins [4]. - The selling, general, and administrative expenses increased, reflecting the company's ongoing investment in market expansion and product upgrades [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecast for 25-27 is adjusted downwards to RMB 3.27 billion, RMB 3.68 billion, and RMB 4.20 billion, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.50% [5]. - The net profit forecast for the same period is also revised downwards, with expected EPS of RMB 0.03, RMB 0.05, and RMB 0.07 for 25, 26, and 27, respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [7][5]. Core Views - The company reported a significant improvement in Q2 performance, with a notable recovery in investment income compared to Q1, leading to a Q2 net profit of 1.61 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 29.96% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1630.64% [1]. - The company initiated a share buyback of 626,800 shares on August 27, signaling confidence to investors [1]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its brokerage and fund sales operations, achieving a 13% increase in domestic futures trading volume and a 4% increase in brokerage fee income year-on-year [2]. - The risk management business remains strong, with a 72% year-on-year growth in off-exchange derivatives business nominal amount, reaching 1,603 billion RMB [3]. - The overseas business is also growing steadily, with a 5% increase in revenue and a significant 185.5% growth in new fund sales [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 55.56 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 54.12%, primarily due to accounting adjustments [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.70 billion RMB, down 44.69% year-on-year, but Q2 showed a recovery with a net profit of 1.61 billion RMB [1][5]. Business Segments - The brokerage business is showing steady growth, with a daily average equity scale improvement and a 4% increase in net income from brokerage fees [2]. - The risk management business is leading the industry, with a total spot trading volume of 196.46 billion RMB and a 23% increase in market-making business volume [3]. - The overseas business segment reported a revenue of 1.24 billion RMB, with a 5% year-on-year increase, and plans to establish a subsidiary in the UK [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 to 0.35, 0.39, and 0.42 RMB respectively, reflecting an increase of 21%, 15%, and 9% [5]. - The target price is set at 20.84 RMB, corresponding to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.7 times for 2025 [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" for both US and HK stocks [6]. Core Insights - The company experienced a slight fluctuation in risk during 2Q25, with loan volume decreasing by 4.8% quarter-on-quarter to 84.6 billion RMB, and net profit attributable to shareholders decreasing by 3.7% to 1.73 billion RMB [1][2]. - The implementation of the "New Regulations on Internet Lending" on October 1 is expected to be the biggest uncertainty for the industry, potentially affecting business models and profitability, but may lead to a more optimized competitive environment in the long term as non-compliant small platforms are phased out [1][3]. - The company aims to provide stable shareholder returns, having utilized 277 million USD of its 450 million USD buyback plan as of August 14 [3]. Loan Quality - In 2Q25, the risk slightly increased, with C-M2 rising to 0.64% (from 0.60% in 1Q25), and the first-day overdue rate increasing to 5.1% (from 5.0% in 1Q25) [2]. - The 30-day repayment rate decreased to 87.3% (from 88.1% in 1Q25), indicating potential short-term volatility in risk due to liquidity tightening from the new regulations [2]. Loan Volume - The new loan volume in 2Q25 was 84.6 billion RMB, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.8% but a year-on-year increase of 16.1% [2]. - The company has reduced its light capital loan volume ratio to 41% (from 49% in 1Q25), indicating a more cautious approach from funding sources [2]. Funding Costs - Current funding costs are at a relatively low level, with limited potential for significant further reductions in the future [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 6.93 billion RMB, 7.49 billion RMB, and 7.93 billion RMB respectively [4]. - The target prices are set at 53.7 USD for US stocks and 210.5 HKD for HK stocks, based on a PE of 6.5x for 2025 [4][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 38.99 [1][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 1.662 billion for H1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 16.47%, and a net profit of RMB 777 million, up 8.27% year-over-year. The growth is primarily driven by increased game revenue, particularly from "Supernatural Action Group" [1]. - The company is optimistic about the continued contribution from "Supernatural" and the ongoing integration of AI in gaming, which is expected to enhance user experience and drive long-term growth [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 938 million, a year-over-year increase of 28.42% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 29.64%. The net profit for Q2 was RMB 429 million, up 17.49% year-over-year and 23.37% quarter-over-quarter [1]. - The company’s H1 gross margin was 90.78%, an increase of 2.36 percentage points year-over-year, attributed to a decrease in game-related operating costs [4]. Game Performance - "Supernatural Action Group" has shown rapid growth, with simultaneous online users exceeding 1 million in July, and it reached a peak position of TOP4 in the iOS game sales chart. The company’s strategy for older games has also proven effective, with "Original Journey" maintaining a stable monthly revenue of approximately RMB 100 million [2]. - The product "Ming Jiang Sha" received a new license in July and is set to begin its first paid test on August 27 [2]. AI Integration - The company is advancing the integration of AI in gaming, with the upcoming launch of "Space Kill" featuring a new mode that combines multiple users and AI entities in competitive gameplay, enhancing social interaction and strategic depth [3]. - The intelligent transformation of the "Journey" IP has made significant progress, with the core AI NPC achieving an accuracy rate of over 99% in strategy guidance, further improving user experience [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, raising the expected net profit to RMB 2.258 billion for 2025, RMB 3.275 billion for 2026, and RMB 3.700 billion for 2027, reflecting increases of 15.47%, 38.57%, and 40.96% respectively [5][12]. - The target price has been raised to RMB 38.99, based on a 23x PE for 2026, reflecting the strong performance of new products and the effective integration of AI in gaming [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 140.11 CNY [6][4]. Core Insights - The company achieved profitability in Q2 2025, with a revenue of 15.8 billion CNY, marking a year-on-year growth of 38.9% and a net profit of 0.33 billion CNY [1][2]. - The company's electronic products business is experiencing rapid growth, driven by increased production for major clients like Xiaomi and XPeng, and a strong focus on automotive electronics [2][3]. - The company is well-positioned in the L4 autonomous driving sector, with ongoing projects in ports and plans for RoboTruck and Robotaxi services [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenues of 29.08 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 43.48%, and a narrowed net loss of 0.87 billion CNY compared to a loss of 2.46 billion CNY in the same period last year [1]. - The gross margin improved to 23.15%, up 0.59 percentage points year-on-year, while R&D expense ratio decreased to 15.12%, down 11.39 percentage points year-on-year [1][2]. Business Outlook - The company has a robust order book in the automotive electronics sector and is enhancing its L4 autonomous driving capabilities [3]. - The report projects revenue growth for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 73.9 billion CNY, 95.3 billion CNY, and 116.8 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding net profit estimates of 0.66 billion CNY, 3.62 billion CNY, and 6.08 billion CNY [4][10]. Valuation - The target price of 140.11 CNY reflects an increase from the previous valuation of 85.72 CNY, based on the company's unique position in the market and its comprehensive product offerings [4][6]. - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating hardware and software business contributions to net profit for 2026E at 2.5 billion CNY and 1.1 billion CNY respectively [4][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant growth in net profit attributable to shareholders, with a 20.72% year-on-year increase in H1 2025, reaching 113 million RMB, and a 52.28% increase in Q2 2025, amounting to 59 million RMB [1] - The company is expanding its product lines in the precision transmission field and is actively entering emerging sectors such as humanoid robotics and medical technology, showcasing strong technical capabilities [2][4] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 31.97%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.74 percentage points, while the net margin slightly decreased by 0.14 percentage points to 14.40% [3] Revenue and Profitability - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenues of 787 million RMB, a 21.93% increase year-on-year, with Q2 revenues reaching 419 million RMB, up 25.93% [1] - The revenue breakdown by business segment shows that micro transmission systems, precision injection parts, and precision molds generated revenues of 498 million RMB, 239 million RMB, and 50 million RMB respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.51%, 16.25%, and 88.52% [2] Innovation and Product Development - The company is leveraging a collaborative innovation system to enhance the integration of transmission systems, micro-motor systems, and electronic control systems, successfully developing key technologies [4] - New product launches include the DM17 and LM06 bionic dexterous hand series, designed to meet diverse application needs with advanced features [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 254 million RMB, 315 million RMB, and 393 million RMB respectively, supported by its technological advancements and product diversification [5] - The estimated revenue for 2025 is 1.945 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 27.57% compared to 2024 [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Views - The company achieved a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with a net profit of 217 million yuan, representing an 80% year-on-year increase [1][6]. - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 1.46 billion yuan, a 3.8% increase compared to the previous year [1][6]. - The report highlights steady growth across the company's three main material segments, with semiconductor materials showing a notable revenue increase of approximately 30% [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 760 million yuan, a 2.9% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 97 million yuan, up 61% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company plans to distribute a mid-term dividend of 0.04 yuan per share (before tax) [1]. Business Segments - The screen display materials segment generated revenue of 706 million yuan, a 4.6% increase, although the gross margin decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 38.3% [2]. - The semiconductor materials segment achieved revenue of 331 million yuan, a 1.1% increase, with a gross margin improvement of 1.27 percentage points to 37.94% [2]. - The ultraviolet curing materials segment reported revenue of 307 million yuan, a 6.7% increase, with a gross margin decline of 1.38 percentage points to 36.71% [2]. Growth Opportunities - The company is actively positioning itself in the integrated circuit sector, focusing on high-margin advanced packaging materials due to rising domestic demand [3]. - The OLED market is on an upward trend, and the company is leveraging its strengths in liquid crystal materials to capitalize on future opportunities [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for the company has been revised upwards, with net profits projected at 374 million yuan, 394 million yuan, and 437 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 24.42 yuan, based on a 37x PE ratio for 2025 [4].