证券研究报告 科技/交通运输/工业 2025年中期策略会速递-中国+东南亚: 贸易秩序重构下的产业突围与资本赋能 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 07 日 | 中国内地 专题研究 6 月 5 日华泰证券举办了主题为"中国+东南亚:贸易秩序重构下的产业突 围与资本赋能"的论坛,论坛中我们邀请了多家积极开展海外（尤其为东南 亚）业务的公司进行分享交流,以下为交流要点: 中企出海东南亚,贸易秩序重构下的产业突围与资本赋能 当前出海逐步成为企业持续成长的重要战略,其中东南亚凭借更快的经济增 长潜力、更低的成本等优势,成为企业出海重要目的她。同时出海公司面临 着"水土不服"的风险,众多公司也借机担当"卖水人"的角色,在跨境支 付/供应链/资产设备运营/平台等方面提供服务,帮助出海企业更好地发挥所 长,同时也实现了自身业务优化的目标。论坛以此为出发点,主要邀请了两 类公司:1）业务向海外(尤其为东南亚)扩张的公司;以及 2)为拓展海 外提供基建服务的公司,展现不同类型公司在中企出海中的宝贵经验。 环旭电子:加速推进"全球在地化"发展策略,生产据点遍布全球 近年来全球经济放缓、贸易摩擦加剧等因素加深海外客户对供应链多元化与 ...

证券研究报告 基础材料/能源 5 月价差有所改善,中游供需拐点渐至 华泰研究 2025年6月06日|中国内地 行业月报 25年5月行业整体价差改善,中游供需拐点渐至 25 年 5 月末 CCPI-原油价差约 731,环比改善,处于 2012年以来 30%左 右分位数。5月美国关税降低,油价有所上行,下游化工品价差环比亦有所 改善。5 月提价产品主要系烯草酮、TDI、尿素等供给改善和出口需求拉动 等品种。我们认为,25H2 伴随需求复苏及资本开支显著降速叠加供给侧自 主调整,化工周期品有望迎来复苏拐点。 1-4 月行业资本开支增速延续回落，5 月 PMI 数据为 49.5 据国家统计局,25年1-4月化学原料与化学制品业固定资产完成额累计同 比+1.3%,行业资本开支增速延续回落。我们认为,竞争程度的加剧导致 22H2 以来化工多数子行业盈利中枢显著下移,企业资本开支意愿或逐步 降低,行业供给侧有望迎来持续的自我调整和优化阶段,部分行业产能拐 点将至。需求侧而言,25年5月国内 PMI 数据为 49.5,对等关税有所缓 和,后续伴随国内经济复苏以及亚非拉等地区需求增长,中长期出口增长 趋势仍较乐观,终端需求有望 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of HKD 40.00 for H shares and RMB 45.50 for A shares [9]. Core Views - The company emphasizes its strong resource base, business synergy, and stable downstream consumption, which enhance its ability to withstand cyclical fluctuations. The low volatility and high yield logic continue to highlight its value, restoring investor confidence in long-term allocations [1]. - The report identifies mixed short-term factors affecting the coal industry, including a decrease in coal imports and potential support for domestic demand due to uncertainties in external demand [2]. - Long-term factors indicate that the coal price is supported by rising production costs and stricter regulations, which may elevate the barriers to capacity expansion [3]. - The company is positioned as a leading integrated player in the coal, electricity, and transportation sectors, leveraging its high-quality resources and strategic partnerships to navigate market cycles [4]. - Profit forecasts for the company remain stable, with expected net profits of RMB 501 million, RMB 500 million, and RMB 502 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The company maintains a high historical dividend payout ratio, reinforcing its commitment to shareholder returns [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Short-term Factors - Positive factors include a decrease in coal imports, which may alleviate supply-demand imbalances, and the resilience of domestic manufacturing supporting energy consumption growth [2]. - Negative factors involve early resumption of coal mining leading to increased inventories and potential downward pressure on coal prices [2]. Industry Long-term Factors - The coal industry is experiencing a significant loss rate, with over 60% of companies reporting losses due to rising costs driven by inflation and operational challenges [3]. - New regulations effective July 1 will raise the barriers for coal mining operations, increasing compliance costs and potentially supporting higher production costs [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to maintain a stable profit trajectory with net profits forecasted at RMB 50,086 million for 2025, reflecting a decline from previous years but supported by a consistent dividend policy [5][7]. - The report utilizes a Dividend Discount Model (DDM) for valuation, maintaining target prices of RMB 45.50 for A shares and HKD 40.00 for H shares, emphasizing the importance of stable dividends in the current market environment [5][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Viewpoints - The company is entering the 2.0 phase of brand development, transitioning from merely meeting consumer preferences to leading consumption trends [1][2] - The company has shown strong performance in major sales events, consistently ranking at the top across various metrics [2] - The company is focusing on product enhancement rather than blindly launching new products, with significant upgrades planned for its brands [2][3] - The company is successfully increasing its direct sales ratio, which is expected to exceed 50% in 2024, driven by consumer choice [3] - Capacity expansion is progressing smoothly, with the second phase of the Thailand factory set to be operational in June [4] - The overall impact of tariffs on the company is considered manageable due to its low export ratio to the U.S. [4] Financial Projections and Valuation - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 7.94 billion, 11.21 billion, and 15.04 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.99, 2.80, and 3.76 RMB [5][7] - The target price is set at 130 RMB, based on a 65.5x PE ratio for 2025 [5][9] - The company is expected to benefit from the growth of the domestic pet industry, with a clear and effective brand-building strategy [5]

证券研究报告 中电控股 (2 HK) 2025 年中期策略会速递—兼具稳定 性与成长性的价值股 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 6 月 | 06 日│中国香港 | 发电 | 6 月 5 日中电控股出席了我们组织的 2025 年中期策略会，会上公司分享近 期经营变化和后续展望。我们认为主要关注点包括：1）稳定型业务：随资 本投入转固，管制业务利润贡献或稳步增厚；Q1 中国内地核电机组稳健运 行，阳江核电站电价略有下滑。2）成长型业务：Q1 中国内地、印度多个 零碳项目顺利投产，零碳项目投资计划的落地或为公司业绩注入成长潜力。 稳定型业务：Q1 中国香港售电量同比-2.6%，中国内地核电资产稳健运行 据公司公告，受天气和暖、2024 年为闰年等因素影响，虽数据中心等新兴 行业用电需求增长，Q1 中国香港售电量 70.91 亿度，同比-2.6%。但考虑 到现行管制计划协议约定公司电力业务实现的准许利润占固定资产净额的 比例为 8%，我们依旧看好在高确定性资本开支（2024-28 年预计 529 亿港 元）的保障下，随资本投入不断转固， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 20.40 [8][9]. Core Insights - The company is actively embracing AI transformation, with continuous updates to its Agent use cases covering various enterprise processes such as finance, human resources, supply chain, and manufacturing [1][2]. - There is a significant increase in AI application procurement demand from large enterprises, with the company having served over 58,000 medium and large enterprises and signed contracts with 45 central state-owned enterprises by Q1 2025 [3]. - The internal use of AI technology has led to significant efficiency improvements, with a reduction in employee numbers to 19,594, down by 1,689 from the end of 2024, indicating a successful structural adjustment [4]. Financial Projections - The company expects revenues of RMB 99.58 billion, RMB 110.18 billion, and RMB 123.15 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with EPS projected at RMB 0.05, RMB 0.17, and RMB 0.31 for the same period [5][7]. - The report indicates a recovery in contract signing amounts in February and March 2025, reflecting a positive trend in business performance [3]. Product Development - The company launched the YonGPT enterprise service model in 2023, followed by the YonGPT 2.0 version in 2024, and the "Yonyou BIP Enterprise AI" in 2025, which includes a three-layer architecture for comprehensive enterprise solutions [2].

证券研究报告 中国宏桥 (1378 HK) 2025 年中期策略会速递— 公司价值或迎来重估 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 6 月 | 06 日│中国香港 | 基本金属及加工 | 6 月 4 日中国宏桥（1378.HK）出席了我们组织的 2025 年中期策略会，会 上公司主要介绍了其控股公司宏创控股拟对宏拓实业收购和电解铝能源成 本下降等情况，并阐述了对铝价长期维持乐观。公司高分红属性突出，作为 铝行业龙头，我们维持买入评级。 旗下核心资产计划重组，公司价值有望迎来二次重估 根据公告，中国宏桥控股公司宏创控股拟向宏拓实业的九名股东发行股份以 购买宏拓实业 100%股权，交易对价约 635.18 亿元。宏拓实业为中国宏桥 旗下国内核心资产所属主体，其拥有电解铝年产能 646 万吨及氧化铝年核 准产能 1900 万吨。本次资产重组对中国宏桥持有宏拓实业股份有一定摊薄， 重组前后公司持有股权比例将从 95.30%下降至约 88.99%，但通过此次资 产重组，有利于提升公司资产证券化水平以及市场影响力，叠加公司 24 年 较大幅度提升 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 49.20 [5][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in its power battery profitability throughout 2025, with a production capacity utilization rate exceeding 60% in Q1 2025 and anticipated further increases in Q2 [2]. - The energy storage business is projected to continue growing in volume while maintaining stable profitability, with the company holding the second-largest global market share in energy storage batteries [3]. - The consumer battery segment remains a cash cow for the company, with a revenue increase of 23.4% year-on-year in 2024, and a forecasted growth rate of 20% for 2025 [4]. Summary by Sections Power Battery Business - In 2024, the company shipped 30.29 GWh of power batteries, although it remained in a loss position. The company expects significant growth in power battery shipments in 2025 due to new customer acquisitions in passenger vehicles and increased demand in commercial vehicles [2]. - The company has secured a contract with BMW for cylindrical batteries and is expanding production capacity in Hungary and the U.S. [2]. Energy Storage Business - The company shipped 50.45 GWh of energy storage batteries in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 91.9%. The estimated net profit per watt-hour is approximately RMB 0.03 [3]. - A procurement agreement for 50 GWh of battery cells was signed with a partner for the years 2025-2027, providing revenue support for the energy storage segment [3]. Consumer Battery Business - The consumer battery segment generated revenue of RMB 10.32 billion in 2024, with a gross margin of 27.58%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.85 percentage points [4]. - The company has expanded its market share in various segments, including small cylindrical batteries, and has begun production at its new facility in Malaysia [4]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of RMB 5.035 billion, RMB 6.727 billion, and RMB 7.939 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is RMB 72.494 billion, representing a 49.12% increase from 2024 [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 103.67 [6][7]. Core Insights - The company is optimistic about the development opportunities brought by AIGC and Chiplet, which are expected to enhance its IP and custom chip service business. The successful progress of the private placement project will further strengthen its layout in AIGC and smart mobility Chiplet solutions, potentially opening new growth spaces for future performance [1]. - The company is making continuous investments in the AI sector, aiming to seize opportunities in the high-performance AI chip market. The demand for semiconductor IP and custom chip services is expected to grow due to advancements in AI technology. The company has established a strong market position, with its NPU IP being utilized by 72 clients across 128 AI chip models [2]. - The company is accelerating its Chiplet layout, transitioning its IP model towards Chiplet technology. This shift is driven by the industry's move from SoC to SiP, influenced by the slowdown of Moore's Law. The company is developing Chiplet solutions for AIGC and smart mobility, addressing the high-performance computing needs in sectors like autonomous driving and data centers [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains the forecast for the company's net profit attributable to the parent company at RMB -1.05 million for 2025, RMB 0.13 million for 2026, and RMB 0.56 million for 2027. The valuation for the custom chip/IP licensing business is set at 12.0x and 30.0x for 2025, with a target price of RMB 103.67, reflecting a premium due to the company's competitive advantages in the HPC/AI sector [4].

证券研究报告 石头科技 (688169 CH) 2025 年中期策略会速递—— 618 大促开局良好，坚定全球化战略 华泰研究 更新报告 2025 年 6 月 06 日│中国内地 小家电 6 月 5 日石头科技出席了我们组织的 2025 年中期策略会，会上公司表示： 1）618 第一周期全品类销售额同比高增长；2）境外产能快速爬坡，美国关 税保持跟踪；3）修炼内功，加速全球化扩张战略的落地。 国内 618 大促开局良好 根据奥维云网的监测，5 月 12 日至 6 月 1 日，扫地机、洗地机行业的线上 销售额同比分别为+27%、+34%。分品牌看，同期石头品牌的扫地机、洗 地机线上销售额同比分别为+57%、1064%。公司的线上动销表现远好于行 业平均水平。618 是国内 2 季度最重要的大促活动，公司实现良好开局。 境外产能快速爬坡，美国关税风险保持跟踪 为应对美国关税政策的变化，2024 年 10 月公司在越南设立代工厂。凭借出 色的供应链管理能力，今年以来越南产能快速爬坡，并开始批量发货。公司 提前布局，主动采取措施，通过供应链的多元化、产品推新等多种举措应对 美国关税政策影响。 不断修炼内功，加速全球化 ...